Aggregator

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper high will be situated over the Bahamas as a potent shortwave trough moves from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley toward the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys through 00Z. Height falls will be more prominent across AR, MS, northern AL and into TN as the ridge holds to the southeast. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop roughly from LA into western KY, with little eastward progression of the cold front. Southerly winds over 35 kt at 850 will aid moisture transport off the Gulf of Mexico, with a mean warm from southeast LA into southern AL during the day. Upper 60s dewpoints are forecast south of this diffuse boundary, with mid 60s F eventually spreading into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern LA/MS into AL, FL Panhandle, northwest Georgia... Widespread thunderstorms and rain are expected from the Sabine Valley into MS, Middle TN and southern KY this morning, with over 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE from LA into central AL. Uncapped, SBCAPE will be present along parts of the LA coast, and gradual inland destabilization is expected. By midday, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is to extend across much of southern MS and central/southern AL. The greatest risk of a few severe storms producing damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to be during the late morning to early afternoon period, prior to the negating large-scale effects of the trough moving away from the region. These negative effects will include a reduction in lift, veering low-level winds which will reduce SRH for supercells and tornadoes, and backing flow in the upper levels. All this suggests perhaps a few transient supercells especially early in the day and near the initial low-level moisture surge. Overall predictability is also low given the likelihood of widespread storms moving east across the lower MS Valley, but mesoscale factors could yield a brief tornado or damaging gust. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper high will be situated over the Bahamas as a potent shortwave trough moves from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley toward the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys through 00Z. Height falls will be more prominent across AR, MS, northern AL and into TN as the ridge holds to the southeast. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop roughly from LA into western KY, with little eastward progression of the cold front. Southerly winds over 35 kt at 850 will aid moisture transport off the Gulf of Mexico, with a mean warm from southeast LA into southern AL during the day. Upper 60s dewpoints are forecast south of this diffuse boundary, with mid 60s F eventually spreading into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern LA/MS into AL, FL Panhandle, northwest Georgia... Widespread thunderstorms and rain are expected from the Sabine Valley into MS, Middle TN and southern KY this morning, with over 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE from LA into central AL. Uncapped, SBCAPE will be present along parts of the LA coast, and gradual inland destabilization is expected. By midday, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is to extend across much of southern MS and central/southern AL. The greatest risk of a few severe storms producing damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to be during the late morning to early afternoon period, prior to the negating large-scale effects of the trough moving away from the region. These negative effects will include a reduction in lift, veering low-level winds which will reduce SRH for supercells and tornadoes, and backing flow in the upper levels. All this suggests perhaps a few transient supercells especially early in the day and near the initial low-level moisture surge. Overall predictability is also low given the likelihood of widespread storms moving east across the lower MS Valley, but mesoscale factors could yield a brief tornado or damaging gust. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper high will be situated over the Bahamas as a potent shortwave trough moves from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley toward the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys through 00Z. Height falls will be more prominent across AR, MS, northern AL and into TN as the ridge holds to the southeast. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop roughly from LA into western KY, with little eastward progression of the cold front. Southerly winds over 35 kt at 850 will aid moisture transport off the Gulf of Mexico, with a mean warm from southeast LA into southern AL during the day. Upper 60s dewpoints are forecast south of this diffuse boundary, with mid 60s F eventually spreading into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern LA/MS into AL, FL Panhandle, northwest Georgia... Widespread thunderstorms and rain are expected from the Sabine Valley into MS, Middle TN and southern KY this morning, with over 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE from LA into central AL. Uncapped, SBCAPE will be present along parts of the LA coast, and gradual inland destabilization is expected. By midday, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is to extend across much of southern MS and central/southern AL. The greatest risk of a few severe storms producing damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to be during the late morning to early afternoon period, prior to the negating large-scale effects of the trough moving away from the region. These negative effects will include a reduction in lift, veering low-level winds which will reduce SRH for supercells and tornadoes, and backing flow in the upper levels. All this suggests perhaps a few transient supercells especially early in the day and near the initial low-level moisture surge. Overall predictability is also low given the likelihood of widespread storms moving east across the lower MS Valley, but mesoscale factors could yield a brief tornado or damaging gust. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper high will be situated over the Bahamas as a potent shortwave trough moves from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley toward the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys through 00Z. Height falls will be more prominent across AR, MS, northern AL and into TN as the ridge holds to the southeast. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop roughly from LA into western KY, with little eastward progression of the cold front. Southerly winds over 35 kt at 850 will aid moisture transport off the Gulf of Mexico, with a mean warm from southeast LA into southern AL during the day. Upper 60s dewpoints are forecast south of this diffuse boundary, with mid 60s F eventually spreading into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern LA/MS into AL, FL Panhandle, northwest Georgia... Widespread thunderstorms and rain are expected from the Sabine Valley into MS, Middle TN and southern KY this morning, with over 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE from LA into central AL. Uncapped, SBCAPE will be present along parts of the LA coast, and gradual inland destabilization is expected. By midday, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is to extend across much of southern MS and central/southern AL. The greatest risk of a few severe storms producing damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to be during the late morning to early afternoon period, prior to the negating large-scale effects of the trough moving away from the region. These negative effects will include a reduction in lift, veering low-level winds which will reduce SRH for supercells and tornadoes, and backing flow in the upper levels. All this suggests perhaps a few transient supercells especially early in the day and near the initial low-level moisture surge. Overall predictability is also low given the likelihood of widespread storms moving east across the lower MS Valley, but mesoscale factors could yield a brief tornado or damaging gust. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper high will be situated over the Bahamas as a potent shortwave trough moves from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley toward the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys through 00Z. Height falls will be more prominent across AR, MS, northern AL and into TN as the ridge holds to the southeast. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop roughly from LA into western KY, with little eastward progression of the cold front. Southerly winds over 35 kt at 850 will aid moisture transport off the Gulf of Mexico, with a mean warm from southeast LA into southern AL during the day. Upper 60s dewpoints are forecast south of this diffuse boundary, with mid 60s F eventually spreading into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern LA/MS into AL, FL Panhandle, northwest Georgia... Widespread thunderstorms and rain are expected from the Sabine Valley into MS, Middle TN and southern KY this morning, with over 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE from LA into central AL. Uncapped, SBCAPE will be present along parts of the LA coast, and gradual inland destabilization is expected. By midday, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is to extend across much of southern MS and central/southern AL. The greatest risk of a few severe storms producing damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to be during the late morning to early afternoon period, prior to the negating large-scale effects of the trough moving away from the region. These negative effects will include a reduction in lift, veering low-level winds which will reduce SRH for supercells and tornadoes, and backing flow in the upper levels. All this suggests perhaps a few transient supercells especially early in the day and near the initial low-level moisture surge. Overall predictability is also low given the likelihood of widespread storms moving east across the lower MS Valley, but mesoscale factors could yield a brief tornado or damaging gust. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper high will be situated over the Bahamas as a potent shortwave trough moves from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley toward the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys through 00Z. Height falls will be more prominent across AR, MS, northern AL and into TN as the ridge holds to the southeast. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop roughly from LA into western KY, with little eastward progression of the cold front. Southerly winds over 35 kt at 850 will aid moisture transport off the Gulf of Mexico, with a mean warm from southeast LA into southern AL during the day. Upper 60s dewpoints are forecast south of this diffuse boundary, with mid 60s F eventually spreading into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern LA/MS into AL, FL Panhandle, northwest Georgia... Widespread thunderstorms and rain are expected from the Sabine Valley into MS, Middle TN and southern KY this morning, with over 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE from LA into central AL. Uncapped, SBCAPE will be present along parts of the LA coast, and gradual inland destabilization is expected. By midday, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is to extend across much of southern MS and central/southern AL. The greatest risk of a few severe storms producing damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to be during the late morning to early afternoon period, prior to the negating large-scale effects of the trough moving away from the region. These negative effects will include a reduction in lift, veering low-level winds which will reduce SRH for supercells and tornadoes, and backing flow in the upper levels. All this suggests perhaps a few transient supercells especially early in the day and near the initial low-level moisture surge. Overall predictability is also low given the likelihood of widespread storms moving east across the lower MS Valley, but mesoscale factors could yield a brief tornado or damaging gust. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper high will be situated over the Bahamas as a potent shortwave trough moves from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley toward the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys through 00Z. Height falls will be more prominent across AR, MS, northern AL and into TN as the ridge holds to the southeast. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop roughly from LA into western KY, with little eastward progression of the cold front. Southerly winds over 35 kt at 850 will aid moisture transport off the Gulf of Mexico, with a mean warm from southeast LA into southern AL during the day. Upper 60s dewpoints are forecast south of this diffuse boundary, with mid 60s F eventually spreading into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern LA/MS into AL, FL Panhandle, northwest Georgia... Widespread thunderstorms and rain are expected from the Sabine Valley into MS, Middle TN and southern KY this morning, with over 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE from LA into central AL. Uncapped, SBCAPE will be present along parts of the LA coast, and gradual inland destabilization is expected. By midday, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is to extend across much of southern MS and central/southern AL. The greatest risk of a few severe storms producing damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to be during the late morning to early afternoon period, prior to the negating large-scale effects of the trough moving away from the region. These negative effects will include a reduction in lift, veering low-level winds which will reduce SRH for supercells and tornadoes, and backing flow in the upper levels. All this suggests perhaps a few transient supercells especially early in the day and near the initial low-level moisture surge. Overall predictability is also low given the likelihood of widespread storms moving east across the lower MS Valley, but mesoscale factors could yield a brief tornado or damaging gust. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Westerly flow will further enhance across southern New Mexico into western/southwestern Texas on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent amid sustained winds 15-20 mph will likely overlap across the Texas/Mexico border just east of Big Bend and along the Rio Grande into south-central Texas. Widespread moist fuels will hinder fire spread potential, precluding the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more