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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Western US... Large-scale upper trough will shift inland across the western US today as midlevel flow begins to increase at lower latitudes across the eastern Pacific into northern Mexico. While southward-evolving jet should result in weak buoyancy across portions of CA into the Great Basin, any convection that develops in association with this trough should remain too weak/shallow to warrant any meaningful risk of lightning. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/20/2024 Read more

A boil advisory was issued for customers of the Tennessee Ridge water system due to low water pressure and even a lack of water in parts of the system. A notice from the City of Tennessee Ridge on Facebook blamed high water demand and reduced capacity form their source water wells amid the ongoing drought in Tennessee for insufficient water to meet demand. Water was also being purchased from the Erin Water System. Customers were asked to conserve as much water as possible. WZTV FOX 17 News (Nashville, Tenn.), Jan 19, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few flashes of lightning remain possible across parts of the central California Coast. ...01z Update... Pre frontal warm conveyor is advancing east toward the central CA Coast early this evening. Latest radar data suggests weak elevated convection is embedded within the warm-advection zone, but updrafts are currently too shallow to generate lightning. Greatest risk for isolated thunderstorms will be with this convection as it advances inland ahead of the progressive upper trough. Even so, lightning should remain quite sparse given the weak buoyancy. ..Darrow.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few flashes of lightning remain possible across parts of the central California Coast. ...01z Update... Pre frontal warm conveyor is advancing east toward the central CA Coast early this evening. Latest radar data suggests weak elevated convection is embedded within the warm-advection zone, but updrafts are currently too shallow to generate lightning. Greatest risk for isolated thunderstorms will be with this convection as it advances inland ahead of the progressive upper trough. Even so, lightning should remain quite sparse given the weak buoyancy. ..Darrow.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few flashes of lightning remain possible across parts of the central California Coast. ...01z Update... Pre frontal warm conveyor is advancing east toward the central CA Coast early this evening. Latest radar data suggests weak elevated convection is embedded within the warm-advection zone, but updrafts are currently too shallow to generate lightning. Greatest risk for isolated thunderstorms will be with this convection as it advances inland ahead of the progressive upper trough. Even so, lightning should remain quite sparse given the weak buoyancy. ..Darrow.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few flashes of lightning remain possible across parts of the central California Coast. ...01z Update... Pre frontal warm conveyor is advancing east toward the central CA Coast early this evening. Latest radar data suggests weak elevated convection is embedded within the warm-advection zone, but updrafts are currently too shallow to generate lightning. Greatest risk for isolated thunderstorms will be with this convection as it advances inland ahead of the progressive upper trough. Even so, lightning should remain quite sparse given the weak buoyancy. ..Darrow.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few flashes of lightning remain possible across parts of the central California Coast. ...01z Update... Pre frontal warm conveyor is advancing east toward the central CA Coast early this evening. Latest radar data suggests weak elevated convection is embedded within the warm-advection zone, but updrafts are currently too shallow to generate lightning. Greatest risk for isolated thunderstorms will be with this convection as it advances inland ahead of the progressive upper trough. Even so, lightning should remain quite sparse given the weak buoyancy. ..Darrow.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The extended period will begin with a continental polar airmass across much of the eastern CONUS with cold temperatures and extensive areas of snowcover. By the middle of next week, a warmer airmass will develop across the southern Plains and Southeast, but this will also bring significant precipitation to much of the region which will mitigate fire weather concerns. A storm system will bring precipitation to southern California and the Southwest which will bring wetting rain to most fuels in the region. In addition, moisture is expected to remain across the region through the remainder of the week. Therefore, given this pattern, minimal fire weather concerns are anticipated due to the lack of dry fuels or a dry low-level airmass across the CONUS during the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The extended period will begin with a continental polar airmass across much of the eastern CONUS with cold temperatures and extensive areas of snowcover. By the middle of next week, a warmer airmass will develop across the southern Plains and Southeast, but this will also bring significant precipitation to much of the region which will mitigate fire weather concerns. A storm system will bring precipitation to southern California and the Southwest which will bring wetting rain to most fuels in the region. In addition, moisture is expected to remain across the region through the remainder of the week. Therefore, given this pattern, minimal fire weather concerns are anticipated due to the lack of dry fuels or a dry low-level airmass across the CONUS during the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The extended period will begin with a continental polar airmass across much of the eastern CONUS with cold temperatures and extensive areas of snowcover. By the middle of next week, a warmer airmass will develop across the southern Plains and Southeast, but this will also bring significant precipitation to much of the region which will mitigate fire weather concerns. A storm system will bring precipitation to southern California and the Southwest which will bring wetting rain to most fuels in the region. In addition, moisture is expected to remain across the region through the remainder of the week. Therefore, given this pattern, minimal fire weather concerns are anticipated due to the lack of dry fuels or a dry low-level airmass across the CONUS during the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The extended period will begin with a continental polar airmass across much of the eastern CONUS with cold temperatures and extensive areas of snowcover. By the middle of next week, a warmer airmass will develop across the southern Plains and Southeast, but this will also bring significant precipitation to much of the region which will mitigate fire weather concerns. A storm system will bring precipitation to southern California and the Southwest which will bring wetting rain to most fuels in the region. In addition, moisture is expected to remain across the region through the remainder of the week. Therefore, given this pattern, minimal fire weather concerns are anticipated due to the lack of dry fuels or a dry low-level airmass across the CONUS during the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 19 22:05:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 19 22:05:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS by Saturday. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more