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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds should occur Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Large-scale upper troughing, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations, is forecast to continue advancing eastward across the central CONUS on Monday. The primary feature of interest for severe potential will be a shortwave trough over northern Mexico and the southern Plains that will eject across the lower MS Valley by the end of the period. With the primary surface low over the Upper Midwest, a secondary low should develop across the lower MS Valley Monday evening and overnight into early Tuesday morning, as large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. A strong (40-60 kt) southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop in this time frame, which should aid in the transport of 60s surface dewpoints northward across LA/MS and southern AR. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of central/east TX along or just ahead of a cold front. Current expectations are for more robust convective development to occur by Monday afternoon across parts of east TX into LA, as at least weak instability develops in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Updraft organization is anticipated, including the potential for pre-frontal supercells. But, this scenario remains rather uncertain. A greater likelihood exists for frontal convection in the form of a QLCS, posing a threat for both damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes as it continues eastward across LA/MS and vicinity Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. The potential for nocturnal tornadoes is apparent, especially across northeastern LA into central/southern MS, as low-level shear should increase in tandem with the strengthening low-level jet. If confidence increases that supercells will develop ahead of the front/squall line, then greater severe probabilities would likely be needed. ...Iowa... A cold-core mid/upper trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Even though low-level moisture should remain quite limited, most guidance shows low 50s surface dewpoints present ahead of a deep surface low across IA Monday afternoon. Just modest daytime heating will support weak destabilization given the cold mid-level temperatures, and deep-layer shear appears strong enough for organized thunderstorms. Isolated hail, strong/gusty winds, and perhaps even a tornado or two all appear possible with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds should occur Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Large-scale upper troughing, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations, is forecast to continue advancing eastward across the central CONUS on Monday. The primary feature of interest for severe potential will be a shortwave trough over northern Mexico and the southern Plains that will eject across the lower MS Valley by the end of the period. With the primary surface low over the Upper Midwest, a secondary low should develop across the lower MS Valley Monday evening and overnight into early Tuesday morning, as large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. A strong (40-60 kt) southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop in this time frame, which should aid in the transport of 60s surface dewpoints northward across LA/MS and southern AR. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of central/east TX along or just ahead of a cold front. Current expectations are for more robust convective development to occur by Monday afternoon across parts of east TX into LA, as at least weak instability develops in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Updraft organization is anticipated, including the potential for pre-frontal supercells. But, this scenario remains rather uncertain. A greater likelihood exists for frontal convection in the form of a QLCS, posing a threat for both damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes as it continues eastward across LA/MS and vicinity Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. The potential for nocturnal tornadoes is apparent, especially across northeastern LA into central/southern MS, as low-level shear should increase in tandem with the strengthening low-level jet. If confidence increases that supercells will develop ahead of the front/squall line, then greater severe probabilities would likely be needed. ...Iowa... A cold-core mid/upper trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Even though low-level moisture should remain quite limited, most guidance shows low 50s surface dewpoints present ahead of a deep surface low across IA Monday afternoon. Just modest daytime heating will support weak destabilization given the cold mid-level temperatures, and deep-layer shear appears strong enough for organized thunderstorms. Isolated hail, strong/gusty winds, and perhaps even a tornado or two all appear possible with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds should occur Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Large-scale upper troughing, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations, is forecast to continue advancing eastward across the central CONUS on Monday. The primary feature of interest for severe potential will be a shortwave trough over northern Mexico and the southern Plains that will eject across the lower MS Valley by the end of the period. With the primary surface low over the Upper Midwest, a secondary low should develop across the lower MS Valley Monday evening and overnight into early Tuesday morning, as large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. A strong (40-60 kt) southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop in this time frame, which should aid in the transport of 60s surface dewpoints northward across LA/MS and southern AR. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of central/east TX along or just ahead of a cold front. Current expectations are for more robust convective development to occur by Monday afternoon across parts of east TX into LA, as at least weak instability develops in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Updraft organization is anticipated, including the potential for pre-frontal supercells. But, this scenario remains rather uncertain. A greater likelihood exists for frontal convection in the form of a QLCS, posing a threat for both damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes as it continues eastward across LA/MS and vicinity Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. The potential for nocturnal tornadoes is apparent, especially across northeastern LA into central/southern MS, as low-level shear should increase in tandem with the strengthening low-level jet. If confidence increases that supercells will develop ahead of the front/squall line, then greater severe probabilities would likely be needed. ...Iowa... A cold-core mid/upper trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Even though low-level moisture should remain quite limited, most guidance shows low 50s surface dewpoints present ahead of a deep surface low across IA Monday afternoon. Just modest daytime heating will support weak destabilization given the cold mid-level temperatures, and deep-layer shear appears strong enough for organized thunderstorms. Isolated hail, strong/gusty winds, and perhaps even a tornado or two all appear possible with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development will occur along the High Plains today with the approach and amplification of a mid-level trough across the Southwest. Return flow across Far West Texas will be dry, given low-level airmass trajectories originating from the Chihahuan Desert. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained southerly winds, coinciding with 15 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels, will promote some potential for wildfire spread. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained across Far West Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development will occur along the High Plains today with the approach and amplification of a mid-level trough across the Southwest. Return flow across Far West Texas will be dry, given low-level airmass trajectories originating from the Chihahuan Desert. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained southerly winds, coinciding with 15 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels, will promote some potential for wildfire spread. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained across Far West Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development will occur along the High Plains today with the approach and amplification of a mid-level trough across the Southwest. Return flow across Far West Texas will be dry, given low-level airmass trajectories originating from the Chihahuan Desert. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained southerly winds, coinciding with 15 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels, will promote some potential for wildfire spread. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained across Far West Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development will occur along the High Plains today with the approach and amplification of a mid-level trough across the Southwest. Return flow across Far West Texas will be dry, given low-level airmass trajectories originating from the Chihahuan Desert. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained southerly winds, coinciding with 15 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels, will promote some potential for wildfire spread. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained across Far West Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development will occur along the High Plains today with the approach and amplification of a mid-level trough across the Southwest. Return flow across Far West Texas will be dry, given low-level airmass trajectories originating from the Chihahuan Desert. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained southerly winds, coinciding with 15 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels, will promote some potential for wildfire spread. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained across Far West Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development will occur along the High Plains today with the approach and amplification of a mid-level trough across the Southwest. Return flow across Far West Texas will be dry, given low-level airmass trajectories originating from the Chihahuan Desert. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained southerly winds, coinciding with 15 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels, will promote some potential for wildfire spread. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained across Far West Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... Within a split-flow upper pattern over the CONUS, a southern-stream shortwave trough will eject northeastward Sunday from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern/central Plains. Strong forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave trough and related 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread a gradually destabilizing warm sector across KS/OK and vicinity through Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a lee cyclone initially over eastern CO will deepen through the day as it develops into western KS. Low-level mass response will encourage a slowly modifying Gulf airmass to advect northward across TX into OK/KS/NE along and south of a cold front. Due to a prior frontal passage, this initial low-level moisture return is expected to remain rather limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s along and east of an eastward-mixing dryline extending southward from the low across the southern/central High Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... A cap should inhibit thunderstorm development through early Sunday afternoon. But, increasing ascent associated with the upper trough, along with rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures and gradually increasing low-level moisture, should act in tandem both to erode the cap and support around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. This narrow warm sector should be located along and very close to the surface dryline, which is forecast to mix eastward into parts of western KS/OK by peak afternoon heating. Convective initiation should occur by late afternoon across these areas with 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear present. This will be sufficient to support supercells with mainly a large hail threat initially as steep mid-level lapse rates aid updraft accelerations. By early Sunday evening, a southerly low-level jet is expected to strengthen further to around 45-60 kt over portions of central KS/OK. A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist around 23-03Z Sunday evening across this area where ongoing supercells may encounter somewhat greater low-level moisture (low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints). During this same window, effective SRH will also rapidly increase in tandem with the low-level jet. The threat for a few tornadoes may exist with any persistent supercells given the strong low-level shear, but the modest low-level moisture could still be a somewhat limiting factor. Convection should tend to become elevated Sunday night as it spreads eastward into eastern KS/OK and vicinity. But, some potential for hail and strong/gusty winds may continue as thunderstorms attempt to grow upscale into small bowing line segments. Other thunderstorms with an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... Within a split-flow upper pattern over the CONUS, a southern-stream shortwave trough will eject northeastward Sunday from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern/central Plains. Strong forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave trough and related 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread a gradually destabilizing warm sector across KS/OK and vicinity through Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a lee cyclone initially over eastern CO will deepen through the day as it develops into western KS. Low-level mass response will encourage a slowly modifying Gulf airmass to advect northward across TX into OK/KS/NE along and south of a cold front. Due to a prior frontal passage, this initial low-level moisture return is expected to remain rather limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s along and east of an eastward-mixing dryline extending southward from the low across the southern/central High Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... A cap should inhibit thunderstorm development through early Sunday afternoon. But, increasing ascent associated with the upper trough, along with rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures and gradually increasing low-level moisture, should act in tandem both to erode the cap and support around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. This narrow warm sector should be located along and very close to the surface dryline, which is forecast to mix eastward into parts of western KS/OK by peak afternoon heating. Convective initiation should occur by late afternoon across these areas with 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear present. This will be sufficient to support supercells with mainly a large hail threat initially as steep mid-level lapse rates aid updraft accelerations. By early Sunday evening, a southerly low-level jet is expected to strengthen further to around 45-60 kt over portions of central KS/OK. A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist around 23-03Z Sunday evening across this area where ongoing supercells may encounter somewhat greater low-level moisture (low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints). During this same window, effective SRH will also rapidly increase in tandem with the low-level jet. The threat for a few tornadoes may exist with any persistent supercells given the strong low-level shear, but the modest low-level moisture could still be a somewhat limiting factor. Convection should tend to become elevated Sunday night as it spreads eastward into eastern KS/OK and vicinity. But, some potential for hail and strong/gusty winds may continue as thunderstorms attempt to grow upscale into small bowing line segments. Other thunderstorms with an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... Within a split-flow upper pattern over the CONUS, a southern-stream shortwave trough will eject northeastward Sunday from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern/central Plains. Strong forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave trough and related 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread a gradually destabilizing warm sector across KS/OK and vicinity through Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a lee cyclone initially over eastern CO will deepen through the day as it develops into western KS. Low-level mass response will encourage a slowly modifying Gulf airmass to advect northward across TX into OK/KS/NE along and south of a cold front. Due to a prior frontal passage, this initial low-level moisture return is expected to remain rather limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s along and east of an eastward-mixing dryline extending southward from the low across the southern/central High Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... A cap should inhibit thunderstorm development through early Sunday afternoon. But, increasing ascent associated with the upper trough, along with rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures and gradually increasing low-level moisture, should act in tandem both to erode the cap and support around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. This narrow warm sector should be located along and very close to the surface dryline, which is forecast to mix eastward into parts of western KS/OK by peak afternoon heating. Convective initiation should occur by late afternoon across these areas with 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear present. This will be sufficient to support supercells with mainly a large hail threat initially as steep mid-level lapse rates aid updraft accelerations. By early Sunday evening, a southerly low-level jet is expected to strengthen further to around 45-60 kt over portions of central KS/OK. A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist around 23-03Z Sunday evening across this area where ongoing supercells may encounter somewhat greater low-level moisture (low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints). During this same window, effective SRH will also rapidly increase in tandem with the low-level jet. The threat for a few tornadoes may exist with any persistent supercells given the strong low-level shear, but the modest low-level moisture could still be a somewhat limiting factor. Convection should tend to become elevated Sunday night as it spreads eastward into eastern KS/OK and vicinity. But, some potential for hail and strong/gusty winds may continue as thunderstorms attempt to grow upscale into small bowing line segments. Other thunderstorms with an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... Within a split-flow upper pattern over the CONUS, a southern-stream shortwave trough will eject northeastward Sunday from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern/central Plains. Strong forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave trough and related 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread a gradually destabilizing warm sector across KS/OK and vicinity through Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a lee cyclone initially over eastern CO will deepen through the day as it develops into western KS. Low-level mass response will encourage a slowly modifying Gulf airmass to advect northward across TX into OK/KS/NE along and south of a cold front. Due to a prior frontal passage, this initial low-level moisture return is expected to remain rather limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s along and east of an eastward-mixing dryline extending southward from the low across the southern/central High Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... A cap should inhibit thunderstorm development through early Sunday afternoon. But, increasing ascent associated with the upper trough, along with rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures and gradually increasing low-level moisture, should act in tandem both to erode the cap and support around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. This narrow warm sector should be located along and very close to the surface dryline, which is forecast to mix eastward into parts of western KS/OK by peak afternoon heating. Convective initiation should occur by late afternoon across these areas with 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear present. This will be sufficient to support supercells with mainly a large hail threat initially as steep mid-level lapse rates aid updraft accelerations. By early Sunday evening, a southerly low-level jet is expected to strengthen further to around 45-60 kt over portions of central KS/OK. A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist around 23-03Z Sunday evening across this area where ongoing supercells may encounter somewhat greater low-level moisture (low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints). During this same window, effective SRH will also rapidly increase in tandem with the low-level jet. The threat for a few tornadoes may exist with any persistent supercells given the strong low-level shear, but the modest low-level moisture could still be a somewhat limiting factor. Convection should tend to become elevated Sunday night as it spreads eastward into eastern KS/OK and vicinity. But, some potential for hail and strong/gusty winds may continue as thunderstorms attempt to grow upscale into small bowing line segments. Other thunderstorms with an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... Within a split-flow upper pattern over the CONUS, a southern-stream shortwave trough will eject northeastward Sunday from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern/central Plains. Strong forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave trough and related 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread a gradually destabilizing warm sector across KS/OK and vicinity through Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a lee cyclone initially over eastern CO will deepen through the day as it develops into western KS. Low-level mass response will encourage a slowly modifying Gulf airmass to advect northward across TX into OK/KS/NE along and south of a cold front. Due to a prior frontal passage, this initial low-level moisture return is expected to remain rather limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s along and east of an eastward-mixing dryline extending southward from the low across the southern/central High Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... A cap should inhibit thunderstorm development through early Sunday afternoon. But, increasing ascent associated with the upper trough, along with rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures and gradually increasing low-level moisture, should act in tandem both to erode the cap and support around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. This narrow warm sector should be located along and very close to the surface dryline, which is forecast to mix eastward into parts of western KS/OK by peak afternoon heating. Convective initiation should occur by late afternoon across these areas with 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear present. This will be sufficient to support supercells with mainly a large hail threat initially as steep mid-level lapse rates aid updraft accelerations. By early Sunday evening, a southerly low-level jet is expected to strengthen further to around 45-60 kt over portions of central KS/OK. A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist around 23-03Z Sunday evening across this area where ongoing supercells may encounter somewhat greater low-level moisture (low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints). During this same window, effective SRH will also rapidly increase in tandem with the low-level jet. The threat for a few tornadoes may exist with any persistent supercells given the strong low-level shear, but the modest low-level moisture could still be a somewhat limiting factor. Convection should tend to become elevated Sunday night as it spreads eastward into eastern KS/OK and vicinity. But, some potential for hail and strong/gusty winds may continue as thunderstorms attempt to grow upscale into small bowing line segments. Other thunderstorms with an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more