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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward. The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves through during the afternoon. ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley... Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR, eastern LA, and western MS. Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation. Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins, particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL overnight. ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity... Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/24/2024 Read more