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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover the majority of the CONUS early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend throughout this troughing Tuesday morning, arcing cyclonically from the West Coast across central Mexico and the TX Gulf Coast, and then up the MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large troughing, with the most prominent shortwave beginning the period over the Mid MS Valley. Expectation is for this shortwave to move quickly northeastward into eastern Ontario by the afternoon, accompanied by very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 100+ kt at 500 mb). Deep surface low associated with this wave is also expected to move northeastward from its initial position over northwest WI into northwest Ontario. As it does, an attendant cold front will sweep quickly eastward/northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, the Upper Great Lakes, and the OH Valley. Farther south, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday morning along an outflow-reinforced cold front stretching from middle TN southwestward off the AL/MS coast. Steady eastward progression of this front is expected throughout the day, before it stalls over GA and the eastern FL Panhandle Tuesday evening. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday morning. Moderate low-level moisture and buoyancy will be over southwest AL/coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday, with some potential for damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado or two as the line moves through. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. However, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper buoyancy, leading to a gradually diminishing storm intensity. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... Clearing is anticipated in the wake of the warm conveyor and ahead of the primary cold front across the OH Valley and southern Lower MI, beginning during the late morning over IL. This clearing is expected to allow temperatures to climb into the 60s. Low-level moisture will be limited (i.e. in the low 50s), but the combination of modest low-level moisture with temperatures in the 60s and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) is expected to result in air mass destabilization and modest buoyancy. Shallow thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front as it interacts with this destabilized air mass, likely beginning during the late morning across IL before then moving eastward/northeastward throughout the day. Buoyancy will be modest, but robust low to mid-level fields will be present and the deep-layer vertical shear vector will oriented mostly perpendicular to the front. These factors suggest fast-moving storms capable of damaging gusts, particularly since the gradient surface wind will already be enhanced. A tornado or two is also possible, although the limited storm depth could act as a limiting factor for greater storm organization. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover the majority of the CONUS early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend throughout this troughing Tuesday morning, arcing cyclonically from the West Coast across central Mexico and the TX Gulf Coast, and then up the MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large troughing, with the most prominent shortwave beginning the period over the Mid MS Valley. Expectation is for this shortwave to move quickly northeastward into eastern Ontario by the afternoon, accompanied by very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 100+ kt at 500 mb). Deep surface low associated with this wave is also expected to move northeastward from its initial position over northwest WI into northwest Ontario. As it does, an attendant cold front will sweep quickly eastward/northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, the Upper Great Lakes, and the OH Valley. Farther south, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday morning along an outflow-reinforced cold front stretching from middle TN southwestward off the AL/MS coast. Steady eastward progression of this front is expected throughout the day, before it stalls over GA and the eastern FL Panhandle Tuesday evening. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday morning. Moderate low-level moisture and buoyancy will be over southwest AL/coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday, with some potential for damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado or two as the line moves through. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. However, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper buoyancy, leading to a gradually diminishing storm intensity. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... Clearing is anticipated in the wake of the warm conveyor and ahead of the primary cold front across the OH Valley and southern Lower MI, beginning during the late morning over IL. This clearing is expected to allow temperatures to climb into the 60s. Low-level moisture will be limited (i.e. in the low 50s), but the combination of modest low-level moisture with temperatures in the 60s and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) is expected to result in air mass destabilization and modest buoyancy. Shallow thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front as it interacts with this destabilized air mass, likely beginning during the late morning across IL before then moving eastward/northeastward throughout the day. Buoyancy will be modest, but robust low to mid-level fields will be present and the deep-layer vertical shear vector will oriented mostly perpendicular to the front. These factors suggest fast-moving storms capable of damaging gusts, particularly since the gradient surface wind will already be enhanced. A tornado or two is also possible, although the limited storm depth could act as a limiting factor for greater storm organization. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover the majority of the CONUS early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend throughout this troughing Tuesday morning, arcing cyclonically from the West Coast across central Mexico and the TX Gulf Coast, and then up the MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large troughing, with the most prominent shortwave beginning the period over the Mid MS Valley. Expectation is for this shortwave to move quickly northeastward into eastern Ontario by the afternoon, accompanied by very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 100+ kt at 500 mb). Deep surface low associated with this wave is also expected to move northeastward from its initial position over northwest WI into northwest Ontario. As it does, an attendant cold front will sweep quickly eastward/northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, the Upper Great Lakes, and the OH Valley. Farther south, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday morning along an outflow-reinforced cold front stretching from middle TN southwestward off the AL/MS coast. Steady eastward progression of this front is expected throughout the day, before it stalls over GA and the eastern FL Panhandle Tuesday evening. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday morning. Moderate low-level moisture and buoyancy will be over southwest AL/coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday, with some potential for damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado or two as the line moves through. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. However, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper buoyancy, leading to a gradually diminishing storm intensity. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... Clearing is anticipated in the wake of the warm conveyor and ahead of the primary cold front across the OH Valley and southern Lower MI, beginning during the late morning over IL. This clearing is expected to allow temperatures to climb into the 60s. Low-level moisture will be limited (i.e. in the low 50s), but the combination of modest low-level moisture with temperatures in the 60s and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) is expected to result in air mass destabilization and modest buoyancy. Shallow thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front as it interacts with this destabilized air mass, likely beginning during the late morning across IL before then moving eastward/northeastward throughout the day. Buoyancy will be modest, but robust low to mid-level fields will be present and the deep-layer vertical shear vector will oriented mostly perpendicular to the front. These factors suggest fast-moving storms capable of damaging gusts, particularly since the gradient surface wind will already be enhanced. A tornado or two is also possible, although the limited storm depth could act as a limiting factor for greater storm organization. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover the majority of the CONUS early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend throughout this troughing Tuesday morning, arcing cyclonically from the West Coast across central Mexico and the TX Gulf Coast, and then up the MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large troughing, with the most prominent shortwave beginning the period over the Mid MS Valley. Expectation is for this shortwave to move quickly northeastward into eastern Ontario by the afternoon, accompanied by very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 100+ kt at 500 mb). Deep surface low associated with this wave is also expected to move northeastward from its initial position over northwest WI into northwest Ontario. As it does, an attendant cold front will sweep quickly eastward/northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, the Upper Great Lakes, and the OH Valley. Farther south, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday morning along an outflow-reinforced cold front stretching from middle TN southwestward off the AL/MS coast. Steady eastward progression of this front is expected throughout the day, before it stalls over GA and the eastern FL Panhandle Tuesday evening. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday morning. Moderate low-level moisture and buoyancy will be over southwest AL/coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday, with some potential for damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado or two as the line moves through. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. However, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper buoyancy, leading to a gradually diminishing storm intensity. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... Clearing is anticipated in the wake of the warm conveyor and ahead of the primary cold front across the OH Valley and southern Lower MI, beginning during the late morning over IL. This clearing is expected to allow temperatures to climb into the 60s. Low-level moisture will be limited (i.e. in the low 50s), but the combination of modest low-level moisture with temperatures in the 60s and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) is expected to result in air mass destabilization and modest buoyancy. Shallow thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front as it interacts with this destabilized air mass, likely beginning during the late morning across IL before then moving eastward/northeastward throughout the day. Buoyancy will be modest, but robust low to mid-level fields will be present and the deep-layer vertical shear vector will oriented mostly perpendicular to the front. These factors suggest fast-moving storms capable of damaging gusts, particularly since the gradient surface wind will already be enhanced. A tornado or two is also possible, although the limited storm depth could act as a limiting factor for greater storm organization. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover the majority of the CONUS early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend throughout this troughing Tuesday morning, arcing cyclonically from the West Coast across central Mexico and the TX Gulf Coast, and then up the MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large troughing, with the most prominent shortwave beginning the period over the Mid MS Valley. Expectation is for this shortwave to move quickly northeastward into eastern Ontario by the afternoon, accompanied by very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 100+ kt at 500 mb). Deep surface low associated with this wave is also expected to move northeastward from its initial position over northwest WI into northwest Ontario. As it does, an attendant cold front will sweep quickly eastward/northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, the Upper Great Lakes, and the OH Valley. Farther south, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday morning along an outflow-reinforced cold front stretching from middle TN southwestward off the AL/MS coast. Steady eastward progression of this front is expected throughout the day, before it stalls over GA and the eastern FL Panhandle Tuesday evening. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday morning. Moderate low-level moisture and buoyancy will be over southwest AL/coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday, with some potential for damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado or two as the line moves through. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. However, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper buoyancy, leading to a gradually diminishing storm intensity. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... Clearing is anticipated in the wake of the warm conveyor and ahead of the primary cold front across the OH Valley and southern Lower MI, beginning during the late morning over IL. This clearing is expected to allow temperatures to climb into the 60s. Low-level moisture will be limited (i.e. in the low 50s), but the combination of modest low-level moisture with temperatures in the 60s and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) is expected to result in air mass destabilization and modest buoyancy. Shallow thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front as it interacts with this destabilized air mass, likely beginning during the late morning across IL before then moving eastward/northeastward throughout the day. Buoyancy will be modest, but robust low to mid-level fields will be present and the deep-layer vertical shear vector will oriented mostly perpendicular to the front. These factors suggest fast-moving storms capable of damaging gusts, particularly since the gradient surface wind will already be enhanced. A tornado or two is also possible, although the limited storm depth could act as a limiting factor for greater storm organization. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover the majority of the CONUS early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend throughout this troughing Tuesday morning, arcing cyclonically from the West Coast across central Mexico and the TX Gulf Coast, and then up the MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large troughing, with the most prominent shortwave beginning the period over the Mid MS Valley. Expectation is for this shortwave to move quickly northeastward into eastern Ontario by the afternoon, accompanied by very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 100+ kt at 500 mb). Deep surface low associated with this wave is also expected to move northeastward from its initial position over northwest WI into northwest Ontario. As it does, an attendant cold front will sweep quickly eastward/northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, the Upper Great Lakes, and the OH Valley. Farther south, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday morning along an outflow-reinforced cold front stretching from middle TN southwestward off the AL/MS coast. Steady eastward progression of this front is expected throughout the day, before it stalls over GA and the eastern FL Panhandle Tuesday evening. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday morning. Moderate low-level moisture and buoyancy will be over southwest AL/coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday, with some potential for damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado or two as the line moves through. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. However, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper buoyancy, leading to a gradually diminishing storm intensity. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... Clearing is anticipated in the wake of the warm conveyor and ahead of the primary cold front across the OH Valley and southern Lower MI, beginning during the late morning over IL. This clearing is expected to allow temperatures to climb into the 60s. Low-level moisture will be limited (i.e. in the low 50s), but the combination of modest low-level moisture with temperatures in the 60s and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) is expected to result in air mass destabilization and modest buoyancy. Shallow thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front as it interacts with this destabilized air mass, likely beginning during the late morning across IL before then moving eastward/northeastward throughout the day. Buoyancy will be modest, but robust low to mid-level fields will be present and the deep-layer vertical shear vector will oriented mostly perpendicular to the front. These factors suggest fast-moving storms capable of damaging gusts, particularly since the gradient surface wind will already be enhanced. A tornado or two is also possible, although the limited storm depth could act as a limiting factor for greater storm organization. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover the majority of the CONUS early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend throughout this troughing Tuesday morning, arcing cyclonically from the West Coast across central Mexico and the TX Gulf Coast, and then up the MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large troughing, with the most prominent shortwave beginning the period over the Mid MS Valley. Expectation is for this shortwave to move quickly northeastward into eastern Ontario by the afternoon, accompanied by very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 100+ kt at 500 mb). Deep surface low associated with this wave is also expected to move northeastward from its initial position over northwest WI into northwest Ontario. As it does, an attendant cold front will sweep quickly eastward/northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, the Upper Great Lakes, and the OH Valley. Farther south, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday morning along an outflow-reinforced cold front stretching from middle TN southwestward off the AL/MS coast. Steady eastward progression of this front is expected throughout the day, before it stalls over GA and the eastern FL Panhandle Tuesday evening. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday morning. Moderate low-level moisture and buoyancy will be over southwest AL/coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday, with some potential for damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado or two as the line moves through. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. However, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper buoyancy, leading to a gradually diminishing storm intensity. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... Clearing is anticipated in the wake of the warm conveyor and ahead of the primary cold front across the OH Valley and southern Lower MI, beginning during the late morning over IL. This clearing is expected to allow temperatures to climb into the 60s. Low-level moisture will be limited (i.e. in the low 50s), but the combination of modest low-level moisture with temperatures in the 60s and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) is expected to result in air mass destabilization and modest buoyancy. Shallow thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front as it interacts with this destabilized air mass, likely beginning during the late morning across IL before then moving eastward/northeastward throughout the day. Buoyancy will be modest, but robust low to mid-level fields will be present and the deep-layer vertical shear vector will oriented mostly perpendicular to the front. These factors suggest fast-moving storms capable of damaging gusts, particularly since the gradient surface wind will already be enhanced. A tornado or two is also possible, although the limited storm depth could act as a limiting factor for greater storm organization. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover the majority of the CONUS early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend throughout this troughing Tuesday morning, arcing cyclonically from the West Coast across central Mexico and the TX Gulf Coast, and then up the MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large troughing, with the most prominent shortwave beginning the period over the Mid MS Valley. Expectation is for this shortwave to move quickly northeastward into eastern Ontario by the afternoon, accompanied by very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 100+ kt at 500 mb). Deep surface low associated with this wave is also expected to move northeastward from its initial position over northwest WI into northwest Ontario. As it does, an attendant cold front will sweep quickly eastward/northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, the Upper Great Lakes, and the OH Valley. Farther south, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday morning along an outflow-reinforced cold front stretching from middle TN southwestward off the AL/MS coast. Steady eastward progression of this front is expected throughout the day, before it stalls over GA and the eastern FL Panhandle Tuesday evening. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday morning. Moderate low-level moisture and buoyancy will be over southwest AL/coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday, with some potential for damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado or two as the line moves through. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. However, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper buoyancy, leading to a gradually diminishing storm intensity. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... Clearing is anticipated in the wake of the warm conveyor and ahead of the primary cold front across the OH Valley and southern Lower MI, beginning during the late morning over IL. This clearing is expected to allow temperatures to climb into the 60s. Low-level moisture will be limited (i.e. in the low 50s), but the combination of modest low-level moisture with temperatures in the 60s and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) is expected to result in air mass destabilization and modest buoyancy. Shallow thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front as it interacts with this destabilized air mass, likely beginning during the late morning across IL before then moving eastward/northeastward throughout the day. Buoyancy will be modest, but robust low to mid-level fields will be present and the deep-layer vertical shear vector will oriented mostly perpendicular to the front. These factors suggest fast-moving storms capable of damaging gusts, particularly since the gradient surface wind will already be enhanced. A tornado or two is also possible, although the limited storm depth could act as a limiting factor for greater storm organization. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover the majority of the CONUS early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend throughout this troughing Tuesday morning, arcing cyclonically from the West Coast across central Mexico and the TX Gulf Coast, and then up the MS Valley through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large troughing, with the most prominent shortwave beginning the period over the Mid MS Valley. Expectation is for this shortwave to move quickly northeastward into eastern Ontario by the afternoon, accompanied by very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 100+ kt at 500 mb). Deep surface low associated with this wave is also expected to move northeastward from its initial position over northwest WI into northwest Ontario. As it does, an attendant cold front will sweep quickly eastward/northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, the Upper Great Lakes, and the OH Valley. Farther south, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday morning along an outflow-reinforced cold front stretching from middle TN southwestward off the AL/MS coast. Steady eastward progression of this front is expected throughout the day, before it stalls over GA and the eastern FL Panhandle Tuesday evening. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday morning. Moderate low-level moisture and buoyancy will be over southwest AL/coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early Tuesday, with some potential for damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado or two as the line moves through. An isolated severe threat may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance inland across these areas. However, poor lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating from cloud cover should temper buoyancy, leading to a gradually diminishing storm intensity. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... Clearing is anticipated in the wake of the warm conveyor and ahead of the primary cold front across the OH Valley and southern Lower MI, beginning during the late morning over IL. This clearing is expected to allow temperatures to climb into the 60s. Low-level moisture will be limited (i.e. in the low 50s), but the combination of modest low-level moisture with temperatures in the 60s and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) is expected to result in air mass destabilization and modest buoyancy. Shallow thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front as it interacts with this destabilized air mass, likely beginning during the late morning across IL before then moving eastward/northeastward throughout the day. Buoyancy will be modest, but robust low to mid-level fields will be present and the deep-layer vertical shear vector will oriented mostly perpendicular to the front. These factors suggest fast-moving storms capable of damaging gusts, particularly since the gradient surface wind will already be enhanced. A tornado or two is also possible, although the limited storm depth could act as a limiting factor for greater storm organization. ..Mosier.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the outlook, see the previous discussion. Dry and breezy conditions may also support brief elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the outlook, see the previous discussion. Dry and breezy conditions may also support brief elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the outlook, see the previous discussion. Dry and breezy conditions may also support brief elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the outlook, see the previous discussion. Dry and breezy conditions may also support brief elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the outlook, see the previous discussion. Dry and breezy conditions may also support brief elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the outlook, see the previous discussion. Dry and breezy conditions may also support brief elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the outlook, see the previous discussion. Dry and breezy conditions may also support brief elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the outlook, see the previous discussion. Dry and breezy conditions may also support brief elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the outlook, see the previous discussion. Dry and breezy conditions may also support brief elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low are poised to eject into the MS Valley region today, prompting deep-layer westerly flow across the Southern Plains. Across Far West Texas toward the Rio Grande, downslope flow will contribute to 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. The best chance for Critical conditions will be along the Rio Grande (per latest high-resolution guidance consensus). Fire weather highlights have been maintained where both meteorological conditions and fuel receptiveness best favor rapid wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama. ...ArkLaMiss Region... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with the primary cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR. Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories. However, mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern LA. This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening. Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA. These storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening, then into western AL after dark. Forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft strength and overall severe risk. However, very strong low-level shear will promote supercell/bowing structures. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/KS... The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track into western IA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Most 12z CAM guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms late today along the front as it moves into this area. The most robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a tornado for a few hours this afternoon. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible today through tonight from east Texas to Alabama. ...ArkLaMiss Region... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with the primary cold front sagging southward from east TX into western AR. Low-level moisture return has been slow ahead of the front over much of the lower MS Valley due to easterly trajectories. However, mid/upper 60s dewpoints are finally spreading inland into southern LA. This trend will continue through the afternoon with ample moisture expected into the southern half of MS by evening. Increasing moisture and at least broken sunshine should lead to sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm intensification by mid-afternoon along/ahead of the front over central LA. These storms will track northeastward toward central MS by early evening, then into western AL after dark. Forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates in the lower troposphere which may limit updraft strength and overall severe risk. However, very strong low-level shear will promote supercell/bowing structures. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes (possibly strong) continue to be the concern this afternoon and evening. ...IA/MO/KS... The primary surface low is currently over eastern KS and will track into western IA this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a region of mostly clear skies in the warm sector of the low, leading to steepening low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE. Most 12z CAM guidance develops a few low-topped showers or perhaps thunderstorms late today along the front as it moves into this area. The most robust cells might produce gusty winds, funnel clouds, or perhaps a tornado for a few hours this afternoon. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/25/2024 Read more