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A Hidalgo County judge issued a disaster declaration on Tuesday, April 9 concerning the ongoing drought. Due to “the prolonged period of exceptional drought conditions,” the declaration stated the drought conditions “pose an imminent and continuous threat of widespread or severe damage, injury or loss of life or property and to public health, municipal water supplies and agricultural production.” The declaration took effect immediately and will last for seven days. The Hidalgo County Commissioners Court may extend the declaration at their next meeting on April 16. ValleyCentral.com (Brownsville, Texas), April 9, 2024

MD 0413 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 101... FOR SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0413 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0901 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Areas affected...southeast LA...southern MS...southern AL and the FL Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 101... Valid 101401Z - 101530Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 101 continues. SUMMARY...A swath of damaging winds (60-80 mph) along the apex of a fast moving bow echo will continue to moving into southern Mississippi the next couple of hours. Tornadoes also will be possible within the bowing line and in supercells ahead of the line. A downstream watch will likely be need into parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle int he next hour or so. DISCUSSION...A damaging bow echo near the southern MS/LA border is shifting east/northeast around 65-70 mph. While heating has been limited this morning downstream of ongoing convection, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints are contributing to modest but sufficient instability. Given the strongly sheared environment, and evidence of a well-defined rear-inflow jet per KLCH VWP, the bow should maintain organization and continue to produce severe caliber winds in the 60-80 mph range. Favorable low-level shear orthogonal to the bowing segment also will support a mesovortex tornado risk. An additional cluster of convection, including some supercells, ahead of the line across far southern MS/southeast LA will also pose a risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes. This activity will continue to lift north/northeast and eventually merge with the surging bow. This may increase tornado potential as mergers occur. Downstream from Tornado Watch 101 into southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, boundary-layer moisture remains more modest. However, mid-to-upper 60s F dewpoints near the coast should continue to spread northward with time and additional destabilization is expected over the next few hours. The severe risk should gradually increase across this region, with a damaging wind and tornado risk expected from late morning into the afternoon. A downstream watch will likely be needed within the next hour or so. ..Leitman.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 31309153 32028920 32158724 31868614 31218598 30648600 30348612 30138676 29758876 29619021 29609094 29779166 29999214 31309153 Read more

WW 0102 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0102 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 101 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE LFT TO 35 NNW MSY TO 30 NW ASD TO 25 NNE MCB TO 35 NE HEZ. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 101 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-109-117- 101540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TERREBONNE WASHINGTON MSC007-019-023-025-029-031-035-039-041-045-047-049-059-061-065- 067-069-073-075-077-079-087-089-091-099-101-103-105-109-111-121- 123-127-129-131-147-153-159-101540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATTALA CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON HINDS JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS Read more

WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 101 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 101 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-029-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091- 093-095-103-105-109-117-121-125-101440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-007-019-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-045-047-049- 059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085-087-089-091-099-101- 103-105-109-111-113-121-123-127-129-131-147-153-157-159- 101440- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE ATTALA CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY Read more

MD 0412 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 100...101... FOR SOUTHERN LA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0412 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Areas affected...Southern LA into Far Southwest MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...101... Valid 101216Z - 101345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100, 101 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for strong to severe (60 to 80 mph) gusts and tornadoes remains from southern Louisiana and far southwest Mississippi. DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective line exhibited a notable surge over the past half hour, with storm motion now estimated at 50-55 kt. Strong to severe gusts continue within this line, as evidenced by the impressive velocity signature from KLCH as well as the measured 55 kt at WFO LCH. In addition to this surge, the storm motion has trended a bit more northeasterly, becoming even more perpendicular to the deep-layer vertical shear. Expectation is for this line to continue east-northeastward for at least the next few hours. Gusts from 60-80 mph remain possible within the line, with line-embedded tornadoes possible as well. Warm-air advection continues ahead of the line, with a few more organized cells manifesting within this regime. The overall parameter space, which is characterized by around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, 50 kt of deep-layer vertical shear, and 200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, supports a continued threat for supercells capable of all hazards, including tornadoes. Main deterrent for storm organization will be interference with other cells. The warm layer around 700 mb observed on the 12Z LIX sounding could act to suppress updraft intensity a bit as well. Even so, the general expectation is for the development of isolated to scattered supercells capable of all severe hazards. ..Mosier.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 29269268 29269333 29709336 30159313 30599310 30869337 31069340 31219285 31359228 31399047 30849000 29579053 29559192 29269268 Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW 7R4 TO 15 NW LFT TO 35 NNE LFT TO 15 ENE ESF. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC045-055-099-101-113-101440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION GMZ435-436-452-455-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW 7R4 TO 15 NW LFT TO 35 NNE LFT TO 15 ENE ESF. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC045-055-099-101-113-101440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION GMZ435-436-452-455-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW 7R4 TO 15 NW LFT TO 35 NNE LFT TO 15 ENE ESF. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC045-055-099-101-113-101440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION GMZ435-436-452-455-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW 7R4 TO 15 NW LFT TO 35 NNE LFT TO 15 ENE ESF. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC045-055-099-101-113-101440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION GMZ435-436-452-455-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW 7R4 TO 15 NW LFT TO 35 NNE LFT TO 15 ENE ESF. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC045-055-099-101-113-101440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION GMZ435-436-452-455-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW 7R4 TO 15 NW LFT TO 35 NNE LFT TO 15 ENE ESF. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC045-055-099-101-113-101440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION GMZ435-436-452-455-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 100 TORNADO LA TX CW 100845Z - 101400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Louisiana Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning from 345 AM until 900 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A squall line will likely intensify as it accelerates eastward through the early morning across the northwest Gulf Coastal plain. Tornadoes are possible with any longer lived mesovortex or supercell that can develop ahead of the squall line. The risk for damaging gusts will likely increase through the early morning as the squall line moves into southwest and southern Louisiana. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Port Arthur TX to 30 miles east of Lafayette LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 98...WW 99... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Smith Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and widespread damaging winds. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper low over west TX. This feature will eject east-northeast into the mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley. A 70-80kt 500-mb speed max will quickly move from the TX coast into the lower MS Valley and over AL late tonight. In the low levels, a maritime warm front will gradually advance inland over the coastal plain aided in part by a 50+ kt southerly LLJ. Strong upper forcing for ascent moving across the Gulf Coast will continue to promote widespread showers/thunderstorms advancing west to east during the period. A severe squall line over southwest LA this morning will likely intensify through the morning as tropospheric flow strengthens across LA into MS. A reservoir of rich moisture located over southern LA and far southern MS is contributing to moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12z Slidell, LA raob). Weaker buoyancy and lower dewpoints (lower 60s deg F) farther north (reference the nil buoyancy on the 12z BMX raob) across east-central MS into the northern half of AL will likely serve as a an area where lower severe coverage and storm intensity is expected. In the area across south-central MS east into southwest AL and southward to the coast, the airmass will likely support both a mix of supercells ahead of the squall line and bowing segments with the evolving bow. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, quasi-discrete supercells interacting with enhanced SRH within the warm frontal zone will potentially be capable of a few tornadoes, one or more of which may be strong. For short-term details concerning the severe threat through mid morning across LA, refer to MCD #412. As this activity spreads east during the afternoon, at least weak destabilization is forecast across AL into the FL Panhandle. An environment supporting severe gusts and the potential for tornadoes will likely develop. A gradual lessening in storm intensity and severe coverage is expected overnight, but an organized severe threat will probably remain along the northeast Gulf Coast. ..Smith/Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more