Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... A deep surface cyclone over the central Great Plains at 12Z Tuesday should gradually progress east-northeast to the Upper MS Valley by early Wednesday. An intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) from northwest TX into southern KS should move east across the Ozark Plateau before weakening Tuesday night as it reaches the Lower OH Valley. The initially north/south-oriented cold front to the south of the surface low will move farther east faster near the cyclone, but slow and stall farther south over the Ark-La-Tex. Synoptically, two favored regions for severe storms Tuesday afternoon/evening will be within the left-exit region of the intense mid-level jet in parts of IA/MO/IL, and over the Ark-La-Tex into the Mid-South where frontal convection will intersect with the richer low-level moisture plume emanating north from the western Gulf. A broad severe weather highlight remains warranted, with areas of higher probabilities likely being needed in later outlooks as mesoscale details become clearer given that the instability/buoyancy plume should be confined and modulated by late D3-early D4 convection. ...D5/Wednesday... Latest guidance suggest some severe threat should persist into early D5 given the strength of low to mid-level flow before the deep surface cyclone occludes and dampens over the Great Lakes. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should be further confined relative to D4. Conditionally, the central OH Valley vicinity appears to have the best opportunity to destabilize in the wake of late D4-early D5 convection and overlap with the stronger flow fields. This area will be monitored for a possible severe weather highlight in the next outlook cycle. ...D6/Thursday... With a broad upper trough becoming established over the Upper Midwest, a building surface anticyclone over the Great Plains should support a reinforcing cold front impinging on the rich western Gulf moisture plume over parts of TX into AR/LA. Some severe potential may evolve given increasingly larger CAPE compared to prior days, but overall shear profiles appear modest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... A deep surface cyclone over the central Great Plains at 12Z Tuesday should gradually progress east-northeast to the Upper MS Valley by early Wednesday. An intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) from northwest TX into southern KS should move east across the Ozark Plateau before weakening Tuesday night as it reaches the Lower OH Valley. The initially north/south-oriented cold front to the south of the surface low will move farther east faster near the cyclone, but slow and stall farther south over the Ark-La-Tex. Synoptically, two favored regions for severe storms Tuesday afternoon/evening will be within the left-exit region of the intense mid-level jet in parts of IA/MO/IL, and over the Ark-La-Tex into the Mid-South where frontal convection will intersect with the richer low-level moisture plume emanating north from the western Gulf. A broad severe weather highlight remains warranted, with areas of higher probabilities likely being needed in later outlooks as mesoscale details become clearer given that the instability/buoyancy plume should be confined and modulated by late D3-early D4 convection. ...D5/Wednesday... Latest guidance suggest some severe threat should persist into early D5 given the strength of low to mid-level flow before the deep surface cyclone occludes and dampens over the Great Lakes. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should be further confined relative to D4. Conditionally, the central OH Valley vicinity appears to have the best opportunity to destabilize in the wake of late D4-early D5 convection and overlap with the stronger flow fields. This area will be monitored for a possible severe weather highlight in the next outlook cycle. ...D6/Thursday... With a broad upper trough becoming established over the Upper Midwest, a building surface anticyclone over the Great Plains should support a reinforcing cold front impinging on the rich western Gulf moisture plume over parts of TX into AR/LA. Some severe potential may evolve given increasingly larger CAPE compared to prior days, but overall shear profiles appear modest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... A deep surface cyclone over the central Great Plains at 12Z Tuesday should gradually progress east-northeast to the Upper MS Valley by early Wednesday. An intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) from northwest TX into southern KS should move east across the Ozark Plateau before weakening Tuesday night as it reaches the Lower OH Valley. The initially north/south-oriented cold front to the south of the surface low will move farther east faster near the cyclone, but slow and stall farther south over the Ark-La-Tex. Synoptically, two favored regions for severe storms Tuesday afternoon/evening will be within the left-exit region of the intense mid-level jet in parts of IA/MO/IL, and over the Ark-La-Tex into the Mid-South where frontal convection will intersect with the richer low-level moisture plume emanating north from the western Gulf. A broad severe weather highlight remains warranted, with areas of higher probabilities likely being needed in later outlooks as mesoscale details become clearer given that the instability/buoyancy plume should be confined and modulated by late D3-early D4 convection. ...D5/Wednesday... Latest guidance suggest some severe threat should persist into early D5 given the strength of low to mid-level flow before the deep surface cyclone occludes and dampens over the Great Lakes. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should be further confined relative to D4. Conditionally, the central OH Valley vicinity appears to have the best opportunity to destabilize in the wake of late D4-early D5 convection and overlap with the stronger flow fields. This area will be monitored for a possible severe weather highlight in the next outlook cycle. ...D6/Thursday... With a broad upper trough becoming established over the Upper Midwest, a building surface anticyclone over the Great Plains should support a reinforcing cold front impinging on the rich western Gulf moisture plume over parts of TX into AR/LA. Some severe potential may evolve given increasingly larger CAPE compared to prior days, but overall shear profiles appear modest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... A deep surface cyclone over the central Great Plains at 12Z Tuesday should gradually progress east-northeast to the Upper MS Valley by early Wednesday. An intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) from northwest TX into southern KS should move east across the Ozark Plateau before weakening Tuesday night as it reaches the Lower OH Valley. The initially north/south-oriented cold front to the south of the surface low will move farther east faster near the cyclone, but slow and stall farther south over the Ark-La-Tex. Synoptically, two favored regions for severe storms Tuesday afternoon/evening will be within the left-exit region of the intense mid-level jet in parts of IA/MO/IL, and over the Ark-La-Tex into the Mid-South where frontal convection will intersect with the richer low-level moisture plume emanating north from the western Gulf. A broad severe weather highlight remains warranted, with areas of higher probabilities likely being needed in later outlooks as mesoscale details become clearer given that the instability/buoyancy plume should be confined and modulated by late D3-early D4 convection. ...D5/Wednesday... Latest guidance suggest some severe threat should persist into early D5 given the strength of low to mid-level flow before the deep surface cyclone occludes and dampens over the Great Lakes. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should be further confined relative to D4. Conditionally, the central OH Valley vicinity appears to have the best opportunity to destabilize in the wake of late D4-early D5 convection and overlap with the stronger flow fields. This area will be monitored for a possible severe weather highlight in the next outlook cycle. ...D6/Thursday... With a broad upper trough becoming established over the Upper Midwest, a building surface anticyclone over the Great Plains should support a reinforcing cold front impinging on the rich western Gulf moisture plume over parts of TX into AR/LA. Some severe potential may evolve given increasingly larger CAPE compared to prior days, but overall shear profiles appear modest. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A shortwave trough should be centered on the southeast Great Basin at 12Z Monday. Guidance is converging to multiple embedded impulses ejecting east across the southern Rockies and Southwest, and onto the central to southern High Plains by early morning Tuesday. This fragmented evolution and consistently slower timing of ejection onto the Plains appears less phased with the peak diurnal heating cycle, suggesting convective development will be later and slightly farther west than in prior outlook cycles. The southern and more vigorous of the impulses will still yield substantial tropospheric flow amplification as an intense mid-level jet evolves across northwest TX into southern KS Monday night. Substantial lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep. Still, there is consensus that a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points should be advected ahead of the dryline across much of western OK into western north TX and the eastern Panhandles. Dryline initiation in this corridor may be delayed until after 00Z. More widespread convective development should occur Monday night, especially as the Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline. The relatively confined surface-based buoyancy plume and nocturnal MLCIN with southern/eastern extent suggest initial supercells will probably consolidate into multiple smaller clusters rather than an extensive QLCS. Large to very large hail appears to be the overarching threat given the steep mid-level lapse rates and supercell wind profiles. The tornado threat will likely be focused where low-level moisture is relatively greater and discrete supercell mode can be maintained, seemingly centered around the northwest TX and western OK vicinity. A swath or two of greater damaging wind potential may evolve overnight given the amplification of the flow regime, but will be modulated by weakening instability. ..Grams.. 04/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A shortwave trough should be centered on the southeast Great Basin at 12Z Monday. Guidance is converging to multiple embedded impulses ejecting east across the southern Rockies and Southwest, and onto the central to southern High Plains by early morning Tuesday. This fragmented evolution and consistently slower timing of ejection onto the Plains appears less phased with the peak diurnal heating cycle, suggesting convective development will be later and slightly farther west than in prior outlook cycles. The southern and more vigorous of the impulses will still yield substantial tropospheric flow amplification as an intense mid-level jet evolves across northwest TX into southern KS Monday night. Substantial lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep. Still, there is consensus that a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points should be advected ahead of the dryline across much of western OK into western north TX and the eastern Panhandles. Dryline initiation in this corridor may be delayed until after 00Z. More widespread convective development should occur Monday night, especially as the Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline. The relatively confined surface-based buoyancy plume and nocturnal MLCIN with southern/eastern extent suggest initial supercells will probably consolidate into multiple smaller clusters rather than an extensive QLCS. Large to very large hail appears to be the overarching threat given the steep mid-level lapse rates and supercell wind profiles. The tornado threat will likely be focused where low-level moisture is relatively greater and discrete supercell mode can be maintained, seemingly centered around the northwest TX and western OK vicinity. A swath or two of greater damaging wind potential may evolve overnight given the amplification of the flow regime, but will be modulated by weakening instability. ..Grams.. 04/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A shortwave trough should be centered on the southeast Great Basin at 12Z Monday. Guidance is converging to multiple embedded impulses ejecting east across the southern Rockies and Southwest, and onto the central to southern High Plains by early morning Tuesday. This fragmented evolution and consistently slower timing of ejection onto the Plains appears less phased with the peak diurnal heating cycle, suggesting convective development will be later and slightly farther west than in prior outlook cycles. The southern and more vigorous of the impulses will still yield substantial tropospheric flow amplification as an intense mid-level jet evolves across northwest TX into southern KS Monday night. Substantial lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep. Still, there is consensus that a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points should be advected ahead of the dryline across much of western OK into western north TX and the eastern Panhandles. Dryline initiation in this corridor may be delayed until after 00Z. More widespread convective development should occur Monday night, especially as the Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline. The relatively confined surface-based buoyancy plume and nocturnal MLCIN with southern/eastern extent suggest initial supercells will probably consolidate into multiple smaller clusters rather than an extensive QLCS. Large to very large hail appears to be the overarching threat given the steep mid-level lapse rates and supercell wind profiles. The tornado threat will likely be focused where low-level moisture is relatively greater and discrete supercell mode can be maintained, seemingly centered around the northwest TX and western OK vicinity. A swath or two of greater damaging wind potential may evolve overnight given the amplification of the flow regime, but will be modulated by weakening instability. ..Grams.. 04/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A shortwave trough should be centered on the southeast Great Basin at 12Z Monday. Guidance is converging to multiple embedded impulses ejecting east across the southern Rockies and Southwest, and onto the central to southern High Plains by early morning Tuesday. This fragmented evolution and consistently slower timing of ejection onto the Plains appears less phased with the peak diurnal heating cycle, suggesting convective development will be later and slightly farther west than in prior outlook cycles. The southern and more vigorous of the impulses will still yield substantial tropospheric flow amplification as an intense mid-level jet evolves across northwest TX into southern KS Monday night. Substantial lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep. Still, there is consensus that a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points should be advected ahead of the dryline across much of western OK into western north TX and the eastern Panhandles. Dryline initiation in this corridor may be delayed until after 00Z. More widespread convective development should occur Monday night, especially as the Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline. The relatively confined surface-based buoyancy plume and nocturnal MLCIN with southern/eastern extent suggest initial supercells will probably consolidate into multiple smaller clusters rather than an extensive QLCS. Large to very large hail appears to be the overarching threat given the steep mid-level lapse rates and supercell wind profiles. The tornado threat will likely be focused where low-level moisture is relatively greater and discrete supercell mode can be maintained, seemingly centered around the northwest TX and western OK vicinity. A swath or two of greater damaging wind potential may evolve overnight given the amplification of the flow regime, but will be modulated by weakening instability. ..Grams.. 04/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A shortwave trough should be centered on the southeast Great Basin at 12Z Monday. Guidance is converging to multiple embedded impulses ejecting east across the southern Rockies and Southwest, and onto the central to southern High Plains by early morning Tuesday. This fragmented evolution and consistently slower timing of ejection onto the Plains appears less phased with the peak diurnal heating cycle, suggesting convective development will be later and slightly farther west than in prior outlook cycles. The southern and more vigorous of the impulses will still yield substantial tropospheric flow amplification as an intense mid-level jet evolves across northwest TX into southern KS Monday night. Substantial lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep. Still, there is consensus that a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points should be advected ahead of the dryline across much of western OK into western north TX and the eastern Panhandles. Dryline initiation in this corridor may be delayed until after 00Z. More widespread convective development should occur Monday night, especially as the Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline. The relatively confined surface-based buoyancy plume and nocturnal MLCIN with southern/eastern extent suggest initial supercells will probably consolidate into multiple smaller clusters rather than an extensive QLCS. Large to very large hail appears to be the overarching threat given the steep mid-level lapse rates and supercell wind profiles. The tornado threat will likely be focused where low-level moisture is relatively greater and discrete supercell mode can be maintained, seemingly centered around the northwest TX and western OK vicinity. A swath or two of greater damaging wind potential may evolve overnight given the amplification of the flow regime, but will be modulated by weakening instability. ..Grams.. 04/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are expected again on Sunday across a broad swath of the Four Corners region with more concentrated areas of elevated conditions across the southern High Plains. The upper low currently off the central CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 48 hours, reaching the lower CO River Valley region by late Sunday. This will result in surface pressure falls across much of the intermountain West with an accompanying uptick in low-level winds. Widespread fire weather conditions are anticipated across much of the Four Corners region, but fuel analyses suggest that most fuels are currently not receptive. A weaker low-level mass response is anticipated further east across the southern High Plains, but corridors of dry/windy conditions are anticipated over areas with receptive fuels. ...Southeast NM to the southern Permian Basin... Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the potential for pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across NM into adjacent areas of western TX and southern CO. However, the most consistent signal among all solutions appears to be across southeast NM into the southern Permian Basin where 15-20 mph winds and RH in the single digits to low teens are expected. This signal is likely attributable to topographical influences with enhanced downslope warming/drying in the lee of the Guadelupe Mountains within a modest west/southwesterly flow regime. Dry grasses across this region should support the fire weather concern, and fuel guidance will be monitored across the Four Corners region given the relatively higher confidence for elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are expected again on Sunday across a broad swath of the Four Corners region with more concentrated areas of elevated conditions across the southern High Plains. The upper low currently off the central CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 48 hours, reaching the lower CO River Valley region by late Sunday. This will result in surface pressure falls across much of the intermountain West with an accompanying uptick in low-level winds. Widespread fire weather conditions are anticipated across much of the Four Corners region, but fuel analyses suggest that most fuels are currently not receptive. A weaker low-level mass response is anticipated further east across the southern High Plains, but corridors of dry/windy conditions are anticipated over areas with receptive fuels. ...Southeast NM to the southern Permian Basin... Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the potential for pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across NM into adjacent areas of western TX and southern CO. However, the most consistent signal among all solutions appears to be across southeast NM into the southern Permian Basin where 15-20 mph winds and RH in the single digits to low teens are expected. This signal is likely attributable to topographical influences with enhanced downslope warming/drying in the lee of the Guadelupe Mountains within a modest west/southwesterly flow regime. Dry grasses across this region should support the fire weather concern, and fuel guidance will be monitored across the Four Corners region given the relatively higher confidence for elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are expected again on Sunday across a broad swath of the Four Corners region with more concentrated areas of elevated conditions across the southern High Plains. The upper low currently off the central CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 48 hours, reaching the lower CO River Valley region by late Sunday. This will result in surface pressure falls across much of the intermountain West with an accompanying uptick in low-level winds. Widespread fire weather conditions are anticipated across much of the Four Corners region, but fuel analyses suggest that most fuels are currently not receptive. A weaker low-level mass response is anticipated further east across the southern High Plains, but corridors of dry/windy conditions are anticipated over areas with receptive fuels. ...Southeast NM to the southern Permian Basin... Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the potential for pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across NM into adjacent areas of western TX and southern CO. However, the most consistent signal among all solutions appears to be across southeast NM into the southern Permian Basin where 15-20 mph winds and RH in the single digits to low teens are expected. This signal is likely attributable to topographical influences with enhanced downslope warming/drying in the lee of the Guadelupe Mountains within a modest west/southwesterly flow regime. Dry grasses across this region should support the fire weather concern, and fuel guidance will be monitored across the Four Corners region given the relatively higher confidence for elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are expected again on Sunday across a broad swath of the Four Corners region with more concentrated areas of elevated conditions across the southern High Plains. The upper low currently off the central CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 48 hours, reaching the lower CO River Valley region by late Sunday. This will result in surface pressure falls across much of the intermountain West with an accompanying uptick in low-level winds. Widespread fire weather conditions are anticipated across much of the Four Corners region, but fuel analyses suggest that most fuels are currently not receptive. A weaker low-level mass response is anticipated further east across the southern High Plains, but corridors of dry/windy conditions are anticipated over areas with receptive fuels. ...Southeast NM to the southern Permian Basin... Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the potential for pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across NM into adjacent areas of western TX and southern CO. However, the most consistent signal among all solutions appears to be across southeast NM into the southern Permian Basin where 15-20 mph winds and RH in the single digits to low teens are expected. This signal is likely attributable to topographical influences with enhanced downslope warming/drying in the lee of the Guadelupe Mountains within a modest west/southwesterly flow regime. Dry grasses across this region should support the fire weather concern, and fuel guidance will be monitored across the Four Corners region given the relatively higher confidence for elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are expected again on Sunday across a broad swath of the Four Corners region with more concentrated areas of elevated conditions across the southern High Plains. The upper low currently off the central CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 48 hours, reaching the lower CO River Valley region by late Sunday. This will result in surface pressure falls across much of the intermountain West with an accompanying uptick in low-level winds. Widespread fire weather conditions are anticipated across much of the Four Corners region, but fuel analyses suggest that most fuels are currently not receptive. A weaker low-level mass response is anticipated further east across the southern High Plains, but corridors of dry/windy conditions are anticipated over areas with receptive fuels. ...Southeast NM to the southern Permian Basin... Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the potential for pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across NM into adjacent areas of western TX and southern CO. However, the most consistent signal among all solutions appears to be across southeast NM into the southern Permian Basin where 15-20 mph winds and RH in the single digits to low teens are expected. This signal is likely attributable to topographical influences with enhanced downslope warming/drying in the lee of the Guadelupe Mountains within a modest west/southwesterly flow regime. Dry grasses across this region should support the fire weather concern, and fuel guidance will be monitored across the Four Corners region given the relatively higher confidence for elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the southern Great Basin to the southern/central Plains this afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will likely be focused primarily across portions of the southern High Plains where the overlap of receptive fuels and dry/windy conditions will be greatest. ...Southern High Plains to northern KS... 05 UTC surface observations show somewhat poor overnight RH recover with RH values remaining in the 15-30% range across eastern NM into far western TX. Additionally, regional 00 UTC soundings sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions across NM and western TX. This dry air mass will spread to the east/northeast through the afternoon as southwesterly winds increase in tandem with a deepening lee trough. Widespread RH values in the low teens to low 20s will likely coincide with 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25-30 mph). Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be widespread across the southern High Plains into western TX, OK, and KS. However, rainfall over the past 72 hours across parts of TX and OK has limited fuel receptiveness based on recent rainfall analyses and fuel reports. Early spring green up is also more prevalent with eastern extent, which will further limit fire potential. Therefore, the Elevated risk area delineates where the best overlap of dry fine fuels and dry/windy conditions should occur. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the deepening lee trough. Very limited moisture return until late in the day, coupled with strong diurnal warming, should result in areas of 25-35% RH with 15-20 mph winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of IA, MN, and southwestern WI, but are expected to remain sufficiently limited spatially and temporally to negate the need for additional highlights. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the southern Great Basin to the southern/central Plains this afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will likely be focused primarily across portions of the southern High Plains where the overlap of receptive fuels and dry/windy conditions will be greatest. ...Southern High Plains to northern KS... 05 UTC surface observations show somewhat poor overnight RH recover with RH values remaining in the 15-30% range across eastern NM into far western TX. Additionally, regional 00 UTC soundings sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions across NM and western TX. This dry air mass will spread to the east/northeast through the afternoon as southwesterly winds increase in tandem with a deepening lee trough. Widespread RH values in the low teens to low 20s will likely coincide with 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25-30 mph). Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be widespread across the southern High Plains into western TX, OK, and KS. However, rainfall over the past 72 hours across parts of TX and OK has limited fuel receptiveness based on recent rainfall analyses and fuel reports. Early spring green up is also more prevalent with eastern extent, which will further limit fire potential. Therefore, the Elevated risk area delineates where the best overlap of dry fine fuels and dry/windy conditions should occur. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the deepening lee trough. Very limited moisture return until late in the day, coupled with strong diurnal warming, should result in areas of 25-35% RH with 15-20 mph winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of IA, MN, and southwestern WI, but are expected to remain sufficiently limited spatially and temporally to negate the need for additional highlights. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the southern Great Basin to the southern/central Plains this afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will likely be focused primarily across portions of the southern High Plains where the overlap of receptive fuels and dry/windy conditions will be greatest. ...Southern High Plains to northern KS... 05 UTC surface observations show somewhat poor overnight RH recover with RH values remaining in the 15-30% range across eastern NM into far western TX. Additionally, regional 00 UTC soundings sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions across NM and western TX. This dry air mass will spread to the east/northeast through the afternoon as southwesterly winds increase in tandem with a deepening lee trough. Widespread RH values in the low teens to low 20s will likely coincide with 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25-30 mph). Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be widespread across the southern High Plains into western TX, OK, and KS. However, rainfall over the past 72 hours across parts of TX and OK has limited fuel receptiveness based on recent rainfall analyses and fuel reports. Early spring green up is also more prevalent with eastern extent, which will further limit fire potential. Therefore, the Elevated risk area delineates where the best overlap of dry fine fuels and dry/windy conditions should occur. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the deepening lee trough. Very limited moisture return until late in the day, coupled with strong diurnal warming, should result in areas of 25-35% RH with 15-20 mph winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of IA, MN, and southwestern WI, but are expected to remain sufficiently limited spatially and temporally to negate the need for additional highlights. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the southern Great Basin to the southern/central Plains this afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will likely be focused primarily across portions of the southern High Plains where the overlap of receptive fuels and dry/windy conditions will be greatest. ...Southern High Plains to northern KS... 05 UTC surface observations show somewhat poor overnight RH recover with RH values remaining in the 15-30% range across eastern NM into far western TX. Additionally, regional 00 UTC soundings sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions across NM and western TX. This dry air mass will spread to the east/northeast through the afternoon as southwesterly winds increase in tandem with a deepening lee trough. Widespread RH values in the low teens to low 20s will likely coincide with 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25-30 mph). Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be widespread across the southern High Plains into western TX, OK, and KS. However, rainfall over the past 72 hours across parts of TX and OK has limited fuel receptiveness based on recent rainfall analyses and fuel reports. Early spring green up is also more prevalent with eastern extent, which will further limit fire potential. Therefore, the Elevated risk area delineates where the best overlap of dry fine fuels and dry/windy conditions should occur. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the deepening lee trough. Very limited moisture return until late in the day, coupled with strong diurnal warming, should result in areas of 25-35% RH with 15-20 mph winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of IA, MN, and southwestern WI, but are expected to remain sufficiently limited spatially and temporally to negate the need for additional highlights. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the southern Great Basin to the southern/central Plains this afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will likely be focused primarily across portions of the southern High Plains where the overlap of receptive fuels and dry/windy conditions will be greatest. ...Southern High Plains to northern KS... 05 UTC surface observations show somewhat poor overnight RH recover with RH values remaining in the 15-30% range across eastern NM into far western TX. Additionally, regional 00 UTC soundings sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions across NM and western TX. This dry air mass will spread to the east/northeast through the afternoon as southwesterly winds increase in tandem with a deepening lee trough. Widespread RH values in the low teens to low 20s will likely coincide with 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25-30 mph). Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be widespread across the southern High Plains into western TX, OK, and KS. However, rainfall over the past 72 hours across parts of TX and OK has limited fuel receptiveness based on recent rainfall analyses and fuel reports. Early spring green up is also more prevalent with eastern extent, which will further limit fire potential. Therefore, the Elevated risk area delineates where the best overlap of dry fine fuels and dry/windy conditions should occur. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the deepening lee trough. Very limited moisture return until late in the day, coupled with strong diurnal warming, should result in areas of 25-35% RH with 15-20 mph winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of IA, MN, and southwestern WI, but are expected to remain sufficiently limited spatially and temporally to negate the need for additional highlights. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF PA TO EAST OH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into the evening on Sunday, across eastern Indiana into the Northeast States. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard, but a tornado or two and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast States to eastern IN... A mid-level jetlet attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress across the northern Great Lakes and Ontario into New England by Sunday evening. Weak cyclogenesis should occur with the surface low tracking east across parts of NY. An attendant cold front should arc westward and progress southeastward. A pronounced elevated mixed layer across the Midwest and southern Great Lakes will shift southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States. This elevated mixed layer will likely cap surface-based convection until near/after peak heating along the west/east-oriented cold front. 00Z RRFS/NAM soundings appear relatively reasonable with this evolution as modified low-level moisture return emanating from the southern Great Plains struggles to reduce MLCIN until cooling aloft advects in from the west-northwest. Other guidance may be too moist within the boundary layer given upstream observations and 36 hours of air mass modification remaining. Still, a corridor of MLCAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/kg will probably develop in IN/OH given the initially steep mid-level lapse rates. This buoyancy plume will subside with eastern extent towards the DE Valley. Hodographs across the region should be dominated by low-level curvature enlargement, especially with eastern extent. However, weak speed and directional shear components are expected above that within the buoyancy layer. Maturing cells will attempt to form supercell structures, but given the nearly parallel orientation of the front with respect to the deep-layer westerly flow regime, convective mode should favor west/east-oriented clusters. These should largely progress south-southeast amid the undercutting nature of the composite front and emerging convective outflows. Due to the initially steep mid-level lapse rates and enlarged low-level hodographs, there is concern for a brief supercell tornado and isolated hail threat. Though with the limiting factors, it appears damaging winds should be the primary hazard during the evening before convection wanes with southern extent overnight. ..Grams.. 04/13/2024 Read more