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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast from the southwest to the Great Lakes, south and east of a low moving east-northeastward in the vicinity of the U.S./Canadian border. As this occurs, a weak cold front will cross the central U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes to central Texas by the end of the period. ...Western North Texas vicinity... Ongoing/weakening convection should be crossing eastern Oklahoma/north Texas at the start of the period, with some ramifications for subsequent destabilization potential ahead of the advancing cold front -- particularly across Oklahoma. With that said, ample destabilization is forecast to occur from the southwestern Oklahoma/western North Texas region southward, to support new convective initiation by late afternoon. A likely/favored location for initial updrafts will likely be near the cold front/dryline intersection, forecast in the vicinity of southwestern Oklahoma/eastern portions of the Texas South Plains/the Big Country region. Initial/cellular convection will pose a risk for very large hail, along with locally damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two, though limited to some degree by rather modest shear. With time, upscale growth may occur, with some models hinting that a bowing MCS may shift eastward across North Texas through the evening. Some eastward expansion of the SLGT risk area is being included in light of this model signal, though the aforementioned lack of more robust flow suggests severe risk will remain somewhat isolated. ...Upper Midwest/southern Upper Great Lakes to eastern Kansas... A weakening band of convection is forecast to be crossing Iowa/northwestern Missouri/eastern Kansas at the start of the period, in advance of the surface cold front. Sporadic gusty winds and marginal hail may occur with a couple of the lingering/stronger storms. Later, weak heating/modest destabilization within the warm sector should support renewed convection near the advancing front during the afternoon. With stronger flow confined to the cool side of the front, and limited instability, any occurrences of wind and/or hail reaching severe levels should remain largely isolated, with risk diminishing by evening. ...Southeastern Texas/southwestern Louisiana... Indications are that an organized/potentially bowing MCS may be moving east-southeastward across southeastern Texas at the start of the period. Prior to moving offshore, strong/locally severe wind gusts will be possible during the first couple of hours of the period. ..Goss.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast from the southwest to the Great Lakes, south and east of a low moving east-northeastward in the vicinity of the U.S./Canadian border. As this occurs, a weak cold front will cross the central U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes to central Texas by the end of the period. ...Western North Texas vicinity... Ongoing/weakening convection should be crossing eastern Oklahoma/north Texas at the start of the period, with some ramifications for subsequent destabilization potential ahead of the advancing cold front -- particularly across Oklahoma. With that said, ample destabilization is forecast to occur from the southwestern Oklahoma/western North Texas region southward, to support new convective initiation by late afternoon. A likely/favored location for initial updrafts will likely be near the cold front/dryline intersection, forecast in the vicinity of southwestern Oklahoma/eastern portions of the Texas South Plains/the Big Country region. Initial/cellular convection will pose a risk for very large hail, along with locally damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two, though limited to some degree by rather modest shear. With time, upscale growth may occur, with some models hinting that a bowing MCS may shift eastward across North Texas through the evening. Some eastward expansion of the SLGT risk area is being included in light of this model signal, though the aforementioned lack of more robust flow suggests severe risk will remain somewhat isolated. ...Upper Midwest/southern Upper Great Lakes to eastern Kansas... A weakening band of convection is forecast to be crossing Iowa/northwestern Missouri/eastern Kansas at the start of the period, in advance of the surface cold front. Sporadic gusty winds and marginal hail may occur with a couple of the lingering/stronger storms. Later, weak heating/modest destabilization within the warm sector should support renewed convection near the advancing front during the afternoon. With stronger flow confined to the cool side of the front, and limited instability, any occurrences of wind and/or hail reaching severe levels should remain largely isolated, with risk diminishing by evening. ...Southeastern Texas/southwestern Louisiana... Indications are that an organized/potentially bowing MCS may be moving east-southeastward across southeastern Texas at the start of the period. Prior to moving offshore, strong/locally severe wind gusts will be possible during the first couple of hours of the period. ..Goss.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast from the southwest to the Great Lakes, south and east of a low moving east-northeastward in the vicinity of the U.S./Canadian border. As this occurs, a weak cold front will cross the central U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes to central Texas by the end of the period. ...Western North Texas vicinity... Ongoing/weakening convection should be crossing eastern Oklahoma/north Texas at the start of the period, with some ramifications for subsequent destabilization potential ahead of the advancing cold front -- particularly across Oklahoma. With that said, ample destabilization is forecast to occur from the southwestern Oklahoma/western North Texas region southward, to support new convective initiation by late afternoon. A likely/favored location for initial updrafts will likely be near the cold front/dryline intersection, forecast in the vicinity of southwestern Oklahoma/eastern portions of the Texas South Plains/the Big Country region. Initial/cellular convection will pose a risk for very large hail, along with locally damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two, though limited to some degree by rather modest shear. With time, upscale growth may occur, with some models hinting that a bowing MCS may shift eastward across North Texas through the evening. Some eastward expansion of the SLGT risk area is being included in light of this model signal, though the aforementioned lack of more robust flow suggests severe risk will remain somewhat isolated. ...Upper Midwest/southern Upper Great Lakes to eastern Kansas... A weakening band of convection is forecast to be crossing Iowa/northwestern Missouri/eastern Kansas at the start of the period, in advance of the surface cold front. Sporadic gusty winds and marginal hail may occur with a couple of the lingering/stronger storms. Later, weak heating/modest destabilization within the warm sector should support renewed convection near the advancing front during the afternoon. With stronger flow confined to the cool side of the front, and limited instability, any occurrences of wind and/or hail reaching severe levels should remain largely isolated, with risk diminishing by evening. ...Southeastern Texas/southwestern Louisiana... Indications are that an organized/potentially bowing MCS may be moving east-southeastward across southeastern Texas at the start of the period. Prior to moving offshore, strong/locally severe wind gusts will be possible during the first couple of hours of the period. ..Goss.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast from the southwest to the Great Lakes, south and east of a low moving east-northeastward in the vicinity of the U.S./Canadian border. As this occurs, a weak cold front will cross the central U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes to central Texas by the end of the period. ...Western North Texas vicinity... Ongoing/weakening convection should be crossing eastern Oklahoma/north Texas at the start of the period, with some ramifications for subsequent destabilization potential ahead of the advancing cold front -- particularly across Oklahoma. With that said, ample destabilization is forecast to occur from the southwestern Oklahoma/western North Texas region southward, to support new convective initiation by late afternoon. A likely/favored location for initial updrafts will likely be near the cold front/dryline intersection, forecast in the vicinity of southwestern Oklahoma/eastern portions of the Texas South Plains/the Big Country region. Initial/cellular convection will pose a risk for very large hail, along with locally damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two, though limited to some degree by rather modest shear. With time, upscale growth may occur, with some models hinting that a bowing MCS may shift eastward across North Texas through the evening. Some eastward expansion of the SLGT risk area is being included in light of this model signal, though the aforementioned lack of more robust flow suggests severe risk will remain somewhat isolated. ...Upper Midwest/southern Upper Great Lakes to eastern Kansas... A weakening band of convection is forecast to be crossing Iowa/northwestern Missouri/eastern Kansas at the start of the period, in advance of the surface cold front. Sporadic gusty winds and marginal hail may occur with a couple of the lingering/stronger storms. Later, weak heating/modest destabilization within the warm sector should support renewed convection near the advancing front during the afternoon. With stronger flow confined to the cool side of the front, and limited instability, any occurrences of wind and/or hail reaching severe levels should remain largely isolated, with risk diminishing by evening. ...Southeastern Texas/southwestern Louisiana... Indications are that an organized/potentially bowing MCS may be moving east-southeastward across southeastern Texas at the start of the period. Prior to moving offshore, strong/locally severe wind gusts will be possible during the first couple of hours of the period. ..Goss.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast from the southwest to the Great Lakes, south and east of a low moving east-northeastward in the vicinity of the U.S./Canadian border. As this occurs, a weak cold front will cross the central U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes to central Texas by the end of the period. ...Western North Texas vicinity... Ongoing/weakening convection should be crossing eastern Oklahoma/north Texas at the start of the period, with some ramifications for subsequent destabilization potential ahead of the advancing cold front -- particularly across Oklahoma. With that said, ample destabilization is forecast to occur from the southwestern Oklahoma/western North Texas region southward, to support new convective initiation by late afternoon. A likely/favored location for initial updrafts will likely be near the cold front/dryline intersection, forecast in the vicinity of southwestern Oklahoma/eastern portions of the Texas South Plains/the Big Country region. Initial/cellular convection will pose a risk for very large hail, along with locally damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two, though limited to some degree by rather modest shear. With time, upscale growth may occur, with some models hinting that a bowing MCS may shift eastward across North Texas through the evening. Some eastward expansion of the SLGT risk area is being included in light of this model signal, though the aforementioned lack of more robust flow suggests severe risk will remain somewhat isolated. ...Upper Midwest/southern Upper Great Lakes to eastern Kansas... A weakening band of convection is forecast to be crossing Iowa/northwestern Missouri/eastern Kansas at the start of the period, in advance of the surface cold front. Sporadic gusty winds and marginal hail may occur with a couple of the lingering/stronger storms. Later, weak heating/modest destabilization within the warm sector should support renewed convection near the advancing front during the afternoon. With stronger flow confined to the cool side of the front, and limited instability, any occurrences of wind and/or hail reaching severe levels should remain largely isolated, with risk diminishing by evening. ...Southeastern Texas/southwestern Louisiana... Indications are that an organized/potentially bowing MCS may be moving east-southeastward across southeastern Texas at the start of the period. Prior to moving offshore, strong/locally severe wind gusts will be possible during the first couple of hours of the period. ..Goss.. 05/02/2024 Read more

MD 0600 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174... FOR NORTHERN KS...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 0600 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Areas affected...Northern KS...South-Central/Southeast NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174... Valid 020427Z - 020600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for strong gusts will expand eastward across north-central/northeast KS and far south-central/southeast NE, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed soon. Isolated hail will remain possible across western and north-central KS in the wake of the bow. DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective line over northwest KS has undergone notable intensification and organization over the last hour or so. Several gusts from 50 to 80 mph have been reported with this bow thus far. This bow is expected to continue progressing eastward/northeastward for the at least the next few hours. Current storm motion is estimated to be northeastward at 40 kt, taking this bow to the current edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174 by 0630Z. However, some acceleration of this bow is possible, likely bringing it to the edge of the watch sooner. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, with some isolated significant-severe gusts up to 80 mph also possible. Isolated large hail around 1" to 1.25" is also possible. Given this severe potential, a downstream watch will likely be needed. More cellular development is possible to the west of this bow, as warm-air advection across the bow's outflow fosters additional storms. Large hail from 1" to 2" is possible with this activity. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38829697 38379882 38130106 38520168 39570102 40079934 40559628 39609560 39129584 38829697 Read more

WW 0175 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E JCT TO 50 WNW MWL TO 15 WSW FSI TO 35 E CSM. ..LEITMAN..05/02/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-019-027-031-033-049-051-067-085-087-099-137-020640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CARTER CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON LOVE MCCLAIN MURRAY STEPHENS TXC009-035-077-093-099-133-143-193-221-237-281-333-337-363-367- 411-425-429-497-503-020640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BOSQUE CLAY COMANCHE CORYELL EASTLAND ERATH HAMILTON HOOD JACK LAMPASAS MILLS MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SAN SABA SOMERVELL STEPHENS WISE YOUNG Read more

Willacy County officials proclaimed a local state of disaster due to severe drought. KFXV (McAllen, Texas), May 1, 2024

MD 0599 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0599 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Areas affected...Northwest and Southwest TX into Southwest OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 020324Z - 020530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gust and isolated large hail may continue eastward from southwest Oklahoma through northwest Texas and into southwest Texas. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a loosely organized, eastward-progressing convective cluster moving into far southwest OK and northwest TX, with its eastward propagation supported by outflow from earlier storms over the southwest TX Panhandle. Additional organization of this cluster may be underway, with some threat for damaging gusts and isolated large hail likely to persist downstream into more of southwest OK. Farther south into southwest TX, the combination of increasing large-scale forcing for ascent with strengthening warm-air advection has contributed to increased thunderstorm coverage and intensity. This activity appears less organized than whats occurring farther north, but some additional organization is still possible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail possible into more of northwest TX. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 34510009 35479891 34789790 32909845 30659909 30539977 31550031 32550046 34510009 Read more

MD 0598 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0598 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173... Valid 020321Z - 020515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues in WW173. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity across portions of central Texas has been widely scattered, with cells occasionally intensifying to severe limits. Thus far reports have been limited to a few hail reports and reports of tree damage. Trends in VAD data from EWX Austin/San Antonio indicate the expected increase in the low-level jet is underway with increasing curvature of the low level hodograph and increasing storm relative helicity. Under this warm advection regime, storm mode has remained very disorganized and clustered. Forecast from the HRRR have continued to favor eventual organization of storms into an overnight MCS. Should this occur, the risk for damaging winds and possibly a tornado would increase. Given the favorable increase in wind profiles and continued favorably moist and unstable atmosphere, this area will continue to support a severe risk through the evening and overnight. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30819891 31249774 31549578 31569534 31379477 30949460 30569478 30169520 29799714 29799844 29859877 30079901 30319910 30819891 Read more

WW 0176 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0176 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0176 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0176 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0176 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0176 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0176 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0176 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0176 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0176 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0176 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0176 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 176 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 020445Z - 021100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central and Northeast Kansas Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1145 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-organized bowing squall line will likely continue east-northeastward toward northeast Kansas and far southeast Nebraska, while other storms develop across additional portions of western and central Kansas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 90 miles west southwest of Hill City KS to 25 miles south of Falls City NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173...WW 174...WW 175... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0597 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172...174... FOR FAR NORTHEAST CO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NE
Mesoscale Discussion 0597 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Areas affected...Far Northeast CO...Western and Central KS...Southwest/South-Central NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172...174... Valid 020255Z - 020430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172, 174 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging gusts will continue, with the tornado threat expected to gradually diminish over the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...Two separate convective regimes currently exist across the region, a discrete mode regime across central KS and a more linear, forced regime from far northeast CO into northwestern KS and southwest NE. A pair of persistent supercells remain within the discrete mode regime across central KS, although recent trends suggest each of these supercells may be weakening and becoming increasingly dissociated from the boundary layer. Even so, moist low-level flow will continue to advect northward amid a strengthening low-level jet, which will likely allow storms to persist for a bit longer before gradually weakening. Several bowing segments exist farther north from far northeast CO into far northwest KS and far southwest NE. This cluster is expected to continue eastward, with some additional southeastward development along the front possible as well. Steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to promote the development of large hail, with some strong gusts possible as well, particularly on the southern edge of this cluster and when any storm mergers occur. ..Mosier.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38549857 38389994 38900151 39110272 39460288 39830194 40180137 40430108 40590074 40660003 40539947 40009840 38549857 Read more

The City of Hutto says that Stage 1 conservation efforts are enacted during a mild drought. While they are voluntary, they are encouraged. FOX 7 Austin (Texas), April 20, 2024

WW 0174 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 174 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW ITR TO 45 NE MCK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0597 ..MOSIER..05/02/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 174 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-065-089-123-137-141-147-153-163-179-181-183-193-020540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GRAHAM JEWELL MITCHELL NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN SMITH THOMAS NEC001-061-065-073-083-099-137-181-020540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS FRANKLIN FURNAS GOSPER HARLAN KEARNEY PHELPS WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more