Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A positively tilted upper trough should progress eastward across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Sunday. Low-level moisture will attempt to advance northward across TX in response, but it may be limited by generally elevated convection to the north of a warm front. Still, some severe risk may exist across parts of TX, if thunderstorms can form in the warm sector. This potential still appears a bit too uncertain to include a 15% severe area for Sunday at this time. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonably good agreement that the upper trough will continue advancing eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast early next week. Severe potential on Day 5/Monday will probably tend to focus over parts of central/east TX into LA, where the best instability and shear are currently forecast. However, there are potentially complicating factors, such as antecedent precipitation and uncertainty regarding the northward extent of the warm sector. This limits confidence to some extent in where the greatest severe threat will exist for Monday. For Day 6/Tuesday, the rich low-level moisture and related warm sector may tend to be confined fairly near/along the central Gulf Coast, with the upper trough moving over the Deep South. Too much uncertainty currently exists to include a 15% severe area for Tuesday across this region. Predictability of the upper-air pattern and severe potential across the CONUS becomes even more limited by Day 7/Wednesday and Day 8/Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A positively tilted upper trough should progress eastward across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Sunday. Low-level moisture will attempt to advance northward across TX in response, but it may be limited by generally elevated convection to the north of a warm front. Still, some severe risk may exist across parts of TX, if thunderstorms can form in the warm sector. This potential still appears a bit too uncertain to include a 15% severe area for Sunday at this time. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonably good agreement that the upper trough will continue advancing eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast early next week. Severe potential on Day 5/Monday will probably tend to focus over parts of central/east TX into LA, where the best instability and shear are currently forecast. However, there are potentially complicating factors, such as antecedent precipitation and uncertainty regarding the northward extent of the warm sector. This limits confidence to some extent in where the greatest severe threat will exist for Monday. For Day 6/Tuesday, the rich low-level moisture and related warm sector may tend to be confined fairly near/along the central Gulf Coast, with the upper trough moving over the Deep South. Too much uncertainty currently exists to include a 15% severe area for Tuesday across this region. Predictability of the upper-air pattern and severe potential across the CONUS becomes even more limited by Day 7/Wednesday and Day 8/Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A positively tilted upper trough should progress eastward across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Sunday. Low-level moisture will attempt to advance northward across TX in response, but it may be limited by generally elevated convection to the north of a warm front. Still, some severe risk may exist across parts of TX, if thunderstorms can form in the warm sector. This potential still appears a bit too uncertain to include a 15% severe area for Sunday at this time. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonably good agreement that the upper trough will continue advancing eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast early next week. Severe potential on Day 5/Monday will probably tend to focus over parts of central/east TX into LA, where the best instability and shear are currently forecast. However, there are potentially complicating factors, such as antecedent precipitation and uncertainty regarding the northward extent of the warm sector. This limits confidence to some extent in where the greatest severe threat will exist for Monday. For Day 6/Tuesday, the rich low-level moisture and related warm sector may tend to be confined fairly near/along the central Gulf Coast, with the upper trough moving over the Deep South. Too much uncertainty currently exists to include a 15% severe area for Tuesday across this region. Predictability of the upper-air pattern and severe potential across the CONUS becomes even more limited by Day 7/Wednesday and Day 8/Thursday. Read more

WW 0213 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 213 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE LIT TO 30 NNW MEM TO 35 SSW CKV TO 25 WSW BWG. ..BROYLES..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 213 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-019-035-053-059-069-077-095-107-123-090840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CLARK CRITTENDEN GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON LEE MONROE PHILLIPS ST. FRANCIS MSC009-033-093-137-139-143-090840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON DESOTO MARSHALL TATE TIPPAH TUNICA TNC003-015-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-039-041-043-047-049-055- 061-069-071-075-077-081-087-099-101-109-111-113-117-119-133-135- 137-141-147-149-157-159-165-167-169-175-177-181-185-187-189- 090840- Read more

WW 0214 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 214 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...HUN...FFC...GSP...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 214 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC011-047-055-083-085-105-111-119-123-129-137-139-147-187-213- 227-241-257-281-291-295-311-313-090840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS CATOOSA CHATTOOGA DADE DAWSON ELBERT FANNIN FRANKLIN GILMER GORDON HABERSHAM HALL HART LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS RABUN STEPHENS TOWNS UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD NCC039-043-075-087-099-113-173-175-090840- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY GRAHAM HAYWOOD JACKSON MACON SWAIN TRANSYLVANIA Read more

A burn ban took effect in Brevard County as the Keetch-Byram Drought Index rose above 500. Florida Today (Melbourne, Fla.), May 8, 2024

Central Texas reported rainfall ranging from half an inch to 10 inches with some counties needing runoff to fill tanks and lakes. In other areas, excessive flooding was seen as numerous rivers and creeks flooded and closed many roads. Hail damage was also reported. Pastures were extremely wet and muddy, but the soil moisture was better than it has been in the past year or more. The light showers improved native pastures with Bermuda grass growing well. Wheat and oats were nearly grazed out and fieldwork was halted due to the rain. Many crops were receiving too much water, which hindered growth. Overall, crop conditions were good. Corn and sorghum looked great, but wind and rain caused some wheat and oats to lay down. Some cotton planting was delayed, but what was already planted was off to a strong start as long as it didn’t get drowned out. Winter wheat was ripening and growing closer to harvest. Hessian fly infestations in wheat didn’t develop, and its absence was attributed to parasitism. Livestock were in good condition with cattle reported to have good body condition. Market conditions looked great. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 7, 2024

MD 0692 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0692 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Central and Western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081114Z - 081315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The threat for large hail will likely continue, as storm coverage gradually expands over the next couple of hours from eastern Kansas into western and central Missouri. New weather watch issuance may be needed within the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Topeka, KS shows a small cluster of strong to severe storms across far eastern Kansas. This convection is expected to continue to increase in coverage, developing eastward into west-central Missouri. The storms are located along the northern edge of moderate instability, where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in the vicinity have effective shear near 60 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8.5 C/km. This will support elevated supercells capable of an isolated large hail threat. The threat should increase as the storms move eastward along a strong gradient of instability, into western and central Missouri over the next few hours. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37769226 38139189 38579188 38859203 38979251 38849468 38589542 38189555 37839527 37739411 37769226 Read more

WW 0202 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0202 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0202 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0202 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 202 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 081150Z - 081900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme eastern Kansas Western and central Missouri * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 650 AM until 200 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Initially elevated thunderstorms erupting near the KS/MO line will pose a threat for large to very large hail through midday as individual cells move northeastward to eastward. A portion of this activity may organize into an eastward- to southeastward-moving, upscale-growing cluster with increasing damaging-wind potential. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west southwest of Olathe KS to Vichy MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Edwards Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed May 8 11:17:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed May 8 11:06:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0691 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 200... FOR ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0691 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...Arkansas...Far Northwest Mississippi...Far Southwest Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 200... Valid 080823Z - 081030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 200 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado and wind-damage threat may continue for a few more hours across WW 200. The threat may affect parts of far northwest Mississippi and far southwest Tennessee later this morning. A watch extension has been done to account for this possibility. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Little Rock, AR shows a cluster of strong thunderstorms located about 30 statute miles to the east of Little Rock. A supercell is embedded toward the eastern edge of the cluster. The RAP is analyzing moderate instability across eastern Arkansas, with MLCAPE generally ranging from 2000 to 2500 J/kg. This will help to maintain convective development as the cluster moves eastward over the next few hours. In addition, the Little Rock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, with 0-1 km storm-relative helicity just above 100 m2/s2. This should continue to support an isolated tornado threat with supercells. A wind-damage threat may also accompany any cells that remain organized. ..Broyles.. 05/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34889181 34239304 33699333 33389241 33649130 34658993 35138935 35628917 35938947 35968998 35259116 34889181 Read more

WW 0200 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W PBF TO 20 NE LIT TO 30 ESE BVX TO 40 S CGI. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-031-035-037-077-085-093-095-107-111-117-123-147-081040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF MSC033-137-143-081040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESOTO TATE TUNICA MOC155-081040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0200 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W PBF TO 20 NE LIT TO 30 ESE BVX TO 40 S CGI. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-031-035-037-077-085-093-095-107-111-117-123-147-081040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF MSC033-137-143-081040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESOTO TATE TUNICA MOC155-081040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0200 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W PBF TO 20 NE LIT TO 30 ESE BVX TO 40 S CGI. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-031-035-037-077-085-093-095-107-111-117-123-147-081040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF MSC033-137-143-081040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESOTO TATE TUNICA MOC155-081040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0200 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W PBF TO 20 NE LIT TO 30 ESE BVX TO 40 S CGI. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-031-035-037-077-085-093-095-107-111-117-123-147-081040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF MSC033-137-143-081040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESOTO TATE TUNICA MOC155-081040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 200 TORNADO AR MO OK TN TX 080555Z - 081100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 200 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwestern, central and northeastern Arkansas Missouri Bootheel Extreme southeastern Oklahoma Northwestern Tennessee Extreme northeast Texas * Effective this Wednesday morning from 1255 AM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated supercells (including one already underway southwest of Little Rock) will post a threat for a couple tornadoes, as well as large to very large hail and isolated severe gusts, during the remainder of the overnight hours. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of De Queen AR to 65 miles east northeast of Jonesboro AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 198...WW 199... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0201 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 201 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DYR TO 25 ESE PAH TO 25 NE BWG. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 201 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC035-047-075-083-105-141-157-213-219-221-227-081040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LOGAN MARSHALL SIMPSON TODD TRIGG WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more