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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Great Plains, beginning mainly this evening and continuing overnight. Several tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging wind gusts all appear possible. Strong tornadoes may occur this evening across parts of Kansas and Nebraska. Scattered severe gusts are probable this afternoon into the evening across portions of Virginia. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large, closed upper cyclone over UT with this feature ejecting over the southern/central Plains tonight. A strong mid/upper-level jet will overspread much of the southern/central Plains while a cyclone deepens over the High Plains today. Southerly low-level flow will facilitate moisture return northward concurrent with a warm front advancing northward across the central Great Plains. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward across the southern/central High Plains through peak afternoon heating, before retreating westward this evening across parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and western KS. ...Northern/Central Plains (Kansas/Nebraska/South Dakota)... No appreciable change in thinking from the previous forecast in the overall severe scenario for later today/tonight. Capping will likely inhibit storm initiation over the northern/central Plains through at least late afternoon. However, strong southerly low-level flow will advect increasingly rich moisture northward with upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints by early this evening across the warm sector. Prior to storm initiation, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast concurrent with strengthening mid/upper-level flow. Once convective initiation occurs (early evening), rapid supercell development is expected as a LLJ intensifies. Large to very large hail (around 2-3 inches in diameter) will be a threat with any supercells that can form along/near the warm front, or southward along the length of the dryline into western KS. Enlarged hodographs during the evening will occur through midnight while some additional increase in low-level moisture acts to counter increasing CINH due to cooling surface temperatures. If a few discrete supercells can maintain a feed of effective near-surface inflow parcels, the tornado risk will likely become focused with those storms. Given the strength of shear/buoyancy combination, strong tornadoes appear possible this evening/tonight across portions of KS/NE. As additional storms develop, an evolving cluster growing upscale will potentially yield severe gusts, most likely from north-central KS into central NE overnight. ...Southern Plains (Oklahoma/Texas)... A lower coverage of storms is expected to develop farther south along the dryline over parts of the southern Great Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Ample mid to high-level clouds will tend to limit daytime heating to some extent along the length of the dryline. However, model guidance shows sufficient agreement in depicting storm development across parts of northwest TX by late this afternoon. Supercells appear likely with this activity given strong (50-60 kt) deep-layer shear and large buoyancy. Isolated large to very large hail will probably be the main threat with this convection as it moves towards north-central TX. But, occasional severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes may also occur through the early evening. Most guidance indicates any supercells which develop will weaken with eastward extent as they encounter increasing MLCIN, and become increasingly displaced from the better large-scale ascent with the upper trough/low ejecting over the central Plains. A highly conditional severe threat remains apparent across OK late this afternoon and evening, with a favorable parameter space to support supercells capable of producing all severe hazards. But, much of OK may have a relative minimum in convective activity until late tonight as a Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline. ...Lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states... Morning surface mesoanalysis places a residual frontal zone draped over central IN/OH with a low-level moisture reservoir (low 60s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from the confluence of the MS/OH rivers northeastward into the lower Wabash Valley. Atop this moisture, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8.0 to 8.3 deg C/km) sampled at the Lincoln, IL and Wilmington, OH raob sites, will overspread the OH Valley eastward into VA today. The richer low-level moisture will likely remain west of the Appalachians across the lower OH Valley where 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast. Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon within the moist axis along/south of a stalled front over the OH Valley. Effective shear 25-35 kt will support a mix of supercells and organized line segments capable of hail and wind. Farther east, steep lapse rates from the surface to 500 mb are depicted in forecast soundings by early to mid afternoon (8 deg C/km). Although PW will be lower across the Mid-Atlantic region, a more deeply mixed boundary layer is forecast with strong westerly mid-level flow (40 kt). Initial cellular storms will likely develop over the higher terrain with subsequent development across northern VA. A band of storms posing a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) and resultant wind damage is forecast. Given the lapse rate profile coupled with ample mid- to high-level flow and a linear mode, have increased wind probabilities and an upgrade to level 3 categorical outlook this update. The overall severe threat should gradually diminish through late evening with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Smith/Bentley.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Great Plains, beginning mainly this evening and continuing overnight. Several tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging wind gusts all appear possible. Strong tornadoes may occur this evening across parts of Kansas and Nebraska. Scattered severe gusts are probable this afternoon into the evening across portions of Virginia. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large, closed upper cyclone over UT with this feature ejecting over the southern/central Plains tonight. A strong mid/upper-level jet will overspread much of the southern/central Plains while a cyclone deepens over the High Plains today. Southerly low-level flow will facilitate moisture return northward concurrent with a warm front advancing northward across the central Great Plains. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward across the southern/central High Plains through peak afternoon heating, before retreating westward this evening across parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and western KS. ...Northern/Central Plains (Kansas/Nebraska/South Dakota)... No appreciable change in thinking from the previous forecast in the overall severe scenario for later today/tonight. Capping will likely inhibit storm initiation over the northern/central Plains through at least late afternoon. However, strong southerly low-level flow will advect increasingly rich moisture northward with upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints by early this evening across the warm sector. Prior to storm initiation, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast concurrent with strengthening mid/upper-level flow. Once convective initiation occurs (early evening), rapid supercell development is expected as a LLJ intensifies. Large to very large hail (around 2-3 inches in diameter) will be a threat with any supercells that can form along/near the warm front, or southward along the length of the dryline into western KS. Enlarged hodographs during the evening will occur through midnight while some additional increase in low-level moisture acts to counter increasing CINH due to cooling surface temperatures. If a few discrete supercells can maintain a feed of effective near-surface inflow parcels, the tornado risk will likely become focused with those storms. Given the strength of shear/buoyancy combination, strong tornadoes appear possible this evening/tonight across portions of KS/NE. As additional storms develop, an evolving cluster growing upscale will potentially yield severe gusts, most likely from north-central KS into central NE overnight. ...Southern Plains (Oklahoma/Texas)... A lower coverage of storms is expected to develop farther south along the dryline over parts of the southern Great Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Ample mid to high-level clouds will tend to limit daytime heating to some extent along the length of the dryline. However, model guidance shows sufficient agreement in depicting storm development across parts of northwest TX by late this afternoon. Supercells appear likely with this activity given strong (50-60 kt) deep-layer shear and large buoyancy. Isolated large to very large hail will probably be the main threat with this convection as it moves towards north-central TX. But, occasional severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes may also occur through the early evening. Most guidance indicates any supercells which develop will weaken with eastward extent as they encounter increasing MLCIN, and become increasingly displaced from the better large-scale ascent with the upper trough/low ejecting over the central Plains. A highly conditional severe threat remains apparent across OK late this afternoon and evening, with a favorable parameter space to support supercells capable of producing all severe hazards. But, much of OK may have a relative minimum in convective activity until late tonight as a Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline. ...Lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states... Morning surface mesoanalysis places a residual frontal zone draped over central IN/OH with a low-level moisture reservoir (low 60s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from the confluence of the MS/OH rivers northeastward into the lower Wabash Valley. Atop this moisture, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8.0 to 8.3 deg C/km) sampled at the Lincoln, IL and Wilmington, OH raob sites, will overspread the OH Valley eastward into VA today. The richer low-level moisture will likely remain west of the Appalachians across the lower OH Valley where 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast. Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon within the moist axis along/south of a stalled front over the OH Valley. Effective shear 25-35 kt will support a mix of supercells and organized line segments capable of hail and wind. Farther east, steep lapse rates from the surface to 500 mb are depicted in forecast soundings by early to mid afternoon (8 deg C/km). Although PW will be lower across the Mid-Atlantic region, a more deeply mixed boundary layer is forecast with strong westerly mid-level flow (40 kt). Initial cellular storms will likely develop over the higher terrain with subsequent development across northern VA. A band of storms posing a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) and resultant wind damage is forecast. Given the lapse rate profile coupled with ample mid- to high-level flow and a linear mode, have increased wind probabilities and an upgrade to level 3 categorical outlook this update. The overall severe threat should gradually diminish through late evening with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Smith/Bentley.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Great Plains, beginning mainly this evening and continuing overnight. Several tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging wind gusts all appear possible. Strong tornadoes may occur this evening across parts of Kansas and Nebraska. Scattered severe gusts are probable this afternoon into the evening across portions of Virginia. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large, closed upper cyclone over UT with this feature ejecting over the southern/central Plains tonight. A strong mid/upper-level jet will overspread much of the southern/central Plains while a cyclone deepens over the High Plains today. Southerly low-level flow will facilitate moisture return northward concurrent with a warm front advancing northward across the central Great Plains. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward across the southern/central High Plains through peak afternoon heating, before retreating westward this evening across parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and western KS. ...Northern/Central Plains (Kansas/Nebraska/South Dakota)... No appreciable change in thinking from the previous forecast in the overall severe scenario for later today/tonight. Capping will likely inhibit storm initiation over the northern/central Plains through at least late afternoon. However, strong southerly low-level flow will advect increasingly rich moisture northward with upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints by early this evening across the warm sector. Prior to storm initiation, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast concurrent with strengthening mid/upper-level flow. Once convective initiation occurs (early evening), rapid supercell development is expected as a LLJ intensifies. Large to very large hail (around 2-3 inches in diameter) will be a threat with any supercells that can form along/near the warm front, or southward along the length of the dryline into western KS. Enlarged hodographs during the evening will occur through midnight while some additional increase in low-level moisture acts to counter increasing CINH due to cooling surface temperatures. If a few discrete supercells can maintain a feed of effective near-surface inflow parcels, the tornado risk will likely become focused with those storms. Given the strength of shear/buoyancy combination, strong tornadoes appear possible this evening/tonight across portions of KS/NE. As additional storms develop, an evolving cluster growing upscale will potentially yield severe gusts, most likely from north-central KS into central NE overnight. ...Southern Plains (Oklahoma/Texas)... A lower coverage of storms is expected to develop farther south along the dryline over parts of the southern Great Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Ample mid to high-level clouds will tend to limit daytime heating to some extent along the length of the dryline. However, model guidance shows sufficient agreement in depicting storm development across parts of northwest TX by late this afternoon. Supercells appear likely with this activity given strong (50-60 kt) deep-layer shear and large buoyancy. Isolated large to very large hail will probably be the main threat with this convection as it moves towards north-central TX. But, occasional severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes may also occur through the early evening. Most guidance indicates any supercells which develop will weaken with eastward extent as they encounter increasing MLCIN, and become increasingly displaced from the better large-scale ascent with the upper trough/low ejecting over the central Plains. A highly conditional severe threat remains apparent across OK late this afternoon and evening, with a favorable parameter space to support supercells capable of producing all severe hazards. But, much of OK may have a relative minimum in convective activity until late tonight as a Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline. ...Lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states... Morning surface mesoanalysis places a residual frontal zone draped over central IN/OH with a low-level moisture reservoir (low 60s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from the confluence of the MS/OH rivers northeastward into the lower Wabash Valley. Atop this moisture, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8.0 to 8.3 deg C/km) sampled at the Lincoln, IL and Wilmington, OH raob sites, will overspread the OH Valley eastward into VA today. The richer low-level moisture will likely remain west of the Appalachians across the lower OH Valley where 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast. Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon within the moist axis along/south of a stalled front over the OH Valley. Effective shear 25-35 kt will support a mix of supercells and organized line segments capable of hail and wind. Farther east, steep lapse rates from the surface to 500 mb are depicted in forecast soundings by early to mid afternoon (8 deg C/km). Although PW will be lower across the Mid-Atlantic region, a more deeply mixed boundary layer is forecast with strong westerly mid-level flow (40 kt). Initial cellular storms will likely develop over the higher terrain with subsequent development across northern VA. A band of storms posing a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) and resultant wind damage is forecast. Given the lapse rate profile coupled with ample mid- to high-level flow and a linear mode, have increased wind probabilities and an upgrade to level 3 categorical outlook this update. The overall severe threat should gradually diminish through late evening with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Smith/Bentley.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Great Plains, beginning mainly this evening and continuing overnight. Several tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging wind gusts all appear possible. Strong tornadoes may occur this evening across parts of Kansas and Nebraska. Scattered severe gusts are probable this afternoon into the evening across portions of Virginia. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large, closed upper cyclone over UT with this feature ejecting over the southern/central Plains tonight. A strong mid/upper-level jet will overspread much of the southern/central Plains while a cyclone deepens over the High Plains today. Southerly low-level flow will facilitate moisture return northward concurrent with a warm front advancing northward across the central Great Plains. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward across the southern/central High Plains through peak afternoon heating, before retreating westward this evening across parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and western KS. ...Northern/Central Plains (Kansas/Nebraska/South Dakota)... No appreciable change in thinking from the previous forecast in the overall severe scenario for later today/tonight. Capping will likely inhibit storm initiation over the northern/central Plains through at least late afternoon. However, strong southerly low-level flow will advect increasingly rich moisture northward with upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints by early this evening across the warm sector. Prior to storm initiation, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast concurrent with strengthening mid/upper-level flow. Once convective initiation occurs (early evening), rapid supercell development is expected as a LLJ intensifies. Large to very large hail (around 2-3 inches in diameter) will be a threat with any supercells that can form along/near the warm front, or southward along the length of the dryline into western KS. Enlarged hodographs during the evening will occur through midnight while some additional increase in low-level moisture acts to counter increasing CINH due to cooling surface temperatures. If a few discrete supercells can maintain a feed of effective near-surface inflow parcels, the tornado risk will likely become focused with those storms. Given the strength of shear/buoyancy combination, strong tornadoes appear possible this evening/tonight across portions of KS/NE. As additional storms develop, an evolving cluster growing upscale will potentially yield severe gusts, most likely from north-central KS into central NE overnight. ...Southern Plains (Oklahoma/Texas)... A lower coverage of storms is expected to develop farther south along the dryline over parts of the southern Great Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Ample mid to high-level clouds will tend to limit daytime heating to some extent along the length of the dryline. However, model guidance shows sufficient agreement in depicting storm development across parts of northwest TX by late this afternoon. Supercells appear likely with this activity given strong (50-60 kt) deep-layer shear and large buoyancy. Isolated large to very large hail will probably be the main threat with this convection as it moves towards north-central TX. But, occasional severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes may also occur through the early evening. Most guidance indicates any supercells which develop will weaken with eastward extent as they encounter increasing MLCIN, and become increasingly displaced from the better large-scale ascent with the upper trough/low ejecting over the central Plains. A highly conditional severe threat remains apparent across OK late this afternoon and evening, with a favorable parameter space to support supercells capable of producing all severe hazards. But, much of OK may have a relative minimum in convective activity until late tonight as a Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline. ...Lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states... Morning surface mesoanalysis places a residual frontal zone draped over central IN/OH with a low-level moisture reservoir (low 60s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from the confluence of the MS/OH rivers northeastward into the lower Wabash Valley. Atop this moisture, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8.0 to 8.3 deg C/km) sampled at the Lincoln, IL and Wilmington, OH raob sites, will overspread the OH Valley eastward into VA today. The richer low-level moisture will likely remain west of the Appalachians across the lower OH Valley where 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast. Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon within the moist axis along/south of a stalled front over the OH Valley. Effective shear 25-35 kt will support a mix of supercells and organized line segments capable of hail and wind. Farther east, steep lapse rates from the surface to 500 mb are depicted in forecast soundings by early to mid afternoon (8 deg C/km). Although PW will be lower across the Mid-Atlantic region, a more deeply mixed boundary layer is forecast with strong westerly mid-level flow (40 kt). Initial cellular storms will likely develop over the higher terrain with subsequent development across northern VA. A band of storms posing a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) and resultant wind damage is forecast. Given the lapse rate profile coupled with ample mid- to high-level flow and a linear mode, have increased wind probabilities and an upgrade to level 3 categorical outlook this update. The overall severe threat should gradually diminish through late evening with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Smith/Bentley.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Great Plains, beginning mainly this evening and continuing overnight. Several tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging wind gusts all appear possible. Strong tornadoes may occur this evening across parts of Kansas and Nebraska. Scattered severe gusts are probable this afternoon into the evening across portions of Virginia. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large, closed upper cyclone over UT with this feature ejecting over the southern/central Plains tonight. A strong mid/upper-level jet will overspread much of the southern/central Plains while a cyclone deepens over the High Plains today. Southerly low-level flow will facilitate moisture return northward concurrent with a warm front advancing northward across the central Great Plains. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward across the southern/central High Plains through peak afternoon heating, before retreating westward this evening across parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and western KS. ...Northern/Central Plains (Kansas/Nebraska/South Dakota)... No appreciable change in thinking from the previous forecast in the overall severe scenario for later today/tonight. Capping will likely inhibit storm initiation over the northern/central Plains through at least late afternoon. However, strong southerly low-level flow will advect increasingly rich moisture northward with upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints by early this evening across the warm sector. Prior to storm initiation, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast concurrent with strengthening mid/upper-level flow. Once convective initiation occurs (early evening), rapid supercell development is expected as a LLJ intensifies. Large to very large hail (around 2-3 inches in diameter) will be a threat with any supercells that can form along/near the warm front, or southward along the length of the dryline into western KS. Enlarged hodographs during the evening will occur through midnight while some additional increase in low-level moisture acts to counter increasing CINH due to cooling surface temperatures. If a few discrete supercells can maintain a feed of effective near-surface inflow parcels, the tornado risk will likely become focused with those storms. Given the strength of shear/buoyancy combination, strong tornadoes appear possible this evening/tonight across portions of KS/NE. As additional storms develop, an evolving cluster growing upscale will potentially yield severe gusts, most likely from north-central KS into central NE overnight. ...Southern Plains (Oklahoma/Texas)... A lower coverage of storms is expected to develop farther south along the dryline over parts of the southern Great Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Ample mid to high-level clouds will tend to limit daytime heating to some extent along the length of the dryline. However, model guidance shows sufficient agreement in depicting storm development across parts of northwest TX by late this afternoon. Supercells appear likely with this activity given strong (50-60 kt) deep-layer shear and large buoyancy. Isolated large to very large hail will probably be the main threat with this convection as it moves towards north-central TX. But, occasional severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes may also occur through the early evening. Most guidance indicates any supercells which develop will weaken with eastward extent as they encounter increasing MLCIN, and become increasingly displaced from the better large-scale ascent with the upper trough/low ejecting over the central Plains. A highly conditional severe threat remains apparent across OK late this afternoon and evening, with a favorable parameter space to support supercells capable of producing all severe hazards. But, much of OK may have a relative minimum in convective activity until late tonight as a Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline. ...Lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states... Morning surface mesoanalysis places a residual frontal zone draped over central IN/OH with a low-level moisture reservoir (low 60s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from the confluence of the MS/OH rivers northeastward into the lower Wabash Valley. Atop this moisture, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8.0 to 8.3 deg C/km) sampled at the Lincoln, IL and Wilmington, OH raob sites, will overspread the OH Valley eastward into VA today. The richer low-level moisture will likely remain west of the Appalachians across the lower OH Valley where 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast. Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon within the moist axis along/south of a stalled front over the OH Valley. Effective shear 25-35 kt will support a mix of supercells and organized line segments capable of hail and wind. Farther east, steep lapse rates from the surface to 500 mb are depicted in forecast soundings by early to mid afternoon (8 deg C/km). Although PW will be lower across the Mid-Atlantic region, a more deeply mixed boundary layer is forecast with strong westerly mid-level flow (40 kt). Initial cellular storms will likely develop over the higher terrain with subsequent development across northern VA. A band of storms posing a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) and resultant wind damage is forecast. Given the lapse rate profile coupled with ample mid- to high-level flow and a linear mode, have increased wind probabilities and an upgrade to level 3 categorical outlook this update. The overall severe threat should gradually diminish through late evening with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Smith/Bentley.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Great Plains, beginning mainly this evening and continuing overnight. Several tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging wind gusts all appear possible. Strong tornadoes may occur this evening across parts of Kansas and Nebraska. Scattered severe gusts are probable this afternoon into the evening across portions of Virginia. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large, closed upper cyclone over UT with this feature ejecting over the southern/central Plains tonight. A strong mid/upper-level jet will overspread much of the southern/central Plains while a cyclone deepens over the High Plains today. Southerly low-level flow will facilitate moisture return northward concurrent with a warm front advancing northward across the central Great Plains. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward across the southern/central High Plains through peak afternoon heating, before retreating westward this evening across parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and western KS. ...Northern/Central Plains (Kansas/Nebraska/South Dakota)... No appreciable change in thinking from the previous forecast in the overall severe scenario for later today/tonight. Capping will likely inhibit storm initiation over the northern/central Plains through at least late afternoon. However, strong southerly low-level flow will advect increasingly rich moisture northward with upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints by early this evening across the warm sector. Prior to storm initiation, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast concurrent with strengthening mid/upper-level flow. Once convective initiation occurs (early evening), rapid supercell development is expected as a LLJ intensifies. Large to very large hail (around 2-3 inches in diameter) will be a threat with any supercells that can form along/near the warm front, or southward along the length of the dryline into western KS. Enlarged hodographs during the evening will occur through midnight while some additional increase in low-level moisture acts to counter increasing CINH due to cooling surface temperatures. If a few discrete supercells can maintain a feed of effective near-surface inflow parcels, the tornado risk will likely become focused with those storms. Given the strength of shear/buoyancy combination, strong tornadoes appear possible this evening/tonight across portions of KS/NE. As additional storms develop, an evolving cluster growing upscale will potentially yield severe gusts, most likely from north-central KS into central NE overnight. ...Southern Plains (Oklahoma/Texas)... A lower coverage of storms is expected to develop farther south along the dryline over parts of the southern Great Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Ample mid to high-level clouds will tend to limit daytime heating to some extent along the length of the dryline. However, model guidance shows sufficient agreement in depicting storm development across parts of northwest TX by late this afternoon. Supercells appear likely with this activity given strong (50-60 kt) deep-layer shear and large buoyancy. Isolated large to very large hail will probably be the main threat with this convection as it moves towards north-central TX. But, occasional severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes may also occur through the early evening. Most guidance indicates any supercells which develop will weaken with eastward extent as they encounter increasing MLCIN, and become increasingly displaced from the better large-scale ascent with the upper trough/low ejecting over the central Plains. A highly conditional severe threat remains apparent across OK late this afternoon and evening, with a favorable parameter space to support supercells capable of producing all severe hazards. But, much of OK may have a relative minimum in convective activity until late tonight as a Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline. ...Lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states... Morning surface mesoanalysis places a residual frontal zone draped over central IN/OH with a low-level moisture reservoir (low 60s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from the confluence of the MS/OH rivers northeastward into the lower Wabash Valley. Atop this moisture, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8.0 to 8.3 deg C/km) sampled at the Lincoln, IL and Wilmington, OH raob sites, will overspread the OH Valley eastward into VA today. The richer low-level moisture will likely remain west of the Appalachians across the lower OH Valley where 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast. Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon within the moist axis along/south of a stalled front over the OH Valley. Effective shear 25-35 kt will support a mix of supercells and organized line segments capable of hail and wind. Farther east, steep lapse rates from the surface to 500 mb are depicted in forecast soundings by early to mid afternoon (8 deg C/km). Although PW will be lower across the Mid-Atlantic region, a more deeply mixed boundary layer is forecast with strong westerly mid-level flow (40 kt). Initial cellular storms will likely develop over the higher terrain with subsequent development across northern VA. A band of storms posing a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) and resultant wind damage is forecast. Given the lapse rate profile coupled with ample mid- to high-level flow and a linear mode, have increased wind probabilities and an upgrade to level 3 categorical outlook this update. The overall severe threat should gradually diminish through late evening with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Smith/Bentley.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis. Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward with time. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis. Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward with time. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis. Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward with time. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis. Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward with time. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis. Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward with time. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis. Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward with time. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis. Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward with time. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis. Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward with time. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis. Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward with time. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis. Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward with time. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis. Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward with time. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis. Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward with time. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis. Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward with time. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0438 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0438 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern West Virginia...northern Virginia and western Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151501Z - 151630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated showers and thunderstorms may produce gusty winds or small hail the next couple of hours across parts of the West Virginia, Maryland and Virginia border vicinity. DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have developed late this morning ahead of a stationary boundary near the WV/MD/VA border. This activity is likely somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, weak instability (generally less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE) amid steep midlevel lapse rates and modest effective shear could support sporadic small hail. A dry, mixed boundary-layer and light low-level flow also may foster gusty winds around 40-50 mph. This initial thunderstorm activity is expected to remain isolated and the overall severe threat limited over the next couple of hours, and a watch is not expected. The severe threat will increase across portions of Mid-Atlantic later this afternoon, and this later threat will be addressed with additional MCDs in the coming hours. ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39737960 39597725 39007670 38677719 38727842 38957953 39207981 39737960 Read more