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WW 0128 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 128 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BWD TO 35 W CLL. ..WEINMAN..04/19/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 128 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC031-053-171-259-265-267-299-319-411-491-190240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLANCO BURNET GILLESPIE KENDALL KERR KIMBLE LLANO MASON SAN SABA WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 128 SEVERE TSTM TX 182210Z - 190400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and North Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 510 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...At least isolated strong to severe storms are expected to further develop across central Texas, and possibly into additional parts of North/Northeast Texas this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Paris TX to 120 miles southwest of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...WW 126...WW 127... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0489 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 128... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128... Valid 182337Z - 190100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of isolated large hail and severe gusts continues across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128. DISCUSSION...After several cell mergers and earlier hail reports (up to 2.25 inches in diameter) over parts of central TX, a locally upscale-grown cluster with two embedded supercells has developed. This evolution has been aided by a mostly straight hodograph/crosswise vorticity and very steep deep-layer lapse rates/strong outflow generation. Strong/deep buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) ahead of the embedded supercells and aforementioned hodograph shape will continue to support large hail to near 2 inches in diameter. Additionally, the upscale growth could also favor an increasing severe-wind risk (around 60-70 mph) as the cluster tracks slowly south-southeastward this evening. ..Weinman.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31239874 31589826 31639773 31449734 31159721 30629760 30179829 30229874 30609911 30979907 31239874 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise. Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening. This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy. Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken. Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling should limit coverage across this region. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise. Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening. This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy. Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken. Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling should limit coverage across this region. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise. Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening. This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy. Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken. Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling should limit coverage across this region. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise. Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening. This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy. Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken. Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling should limit coverage across this region. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise. Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening. This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy. Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken. Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling should limit coverage across this region. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise. Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening. This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy. Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken. Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling should limit coverage across this region. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise. Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening. This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy. Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken. Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling should limit coverage across this region. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise. Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening. This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy. Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken. Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling should limit coverage across this region. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise. Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening. This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy. Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken. Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling should limit coverage across this region. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise. Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening. This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy. Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken. Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling should limit coverage across this region. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise. Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening. This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy. Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken. Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling should limit coverage across this region. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise. Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening. This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy. Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken. Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling should limit coverage across this region. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise. Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening. This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy. Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken. Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling should limit coverage across this region. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise. Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening. This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy. Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken. Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling should limit coverage across this region. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should be most concentrated over portions of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys early tonight. More isolated activity is expected farther south across Arkansas into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting east across IL. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern OH by sunrise. Large-scale support ahead of this feature is expected to encourage ongoing MCS over the middle MS Valley to propagate downstream across the remainder of southeast IL into southern IN later this evening. This MCS is currently severe and has produced a variety of wind/hail reports across MO/western IL. Current thinking is wind/hail will continue to accompany this squall line, at least into the lower OH Valley where it will encounter weaker buoyancy. Surging cold front has advanced into northwest AR, arcing southwest across southeast OK into the Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. Thunderstorms have struggled to develop along portions of this wind shift, but isolated robust convection is currently sagging south through the Hill Country, just north of Llano. Very large hail may yet accompany this activity before low-level lapse rates weaken. Convection should remain isolated along the trailing cold front due in large part to negligible large-scale forcing. Nocturnal cooling should limit coverage across this region. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2024 Read more

WW 0129 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 129 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488 ..THORNTON..04/19/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 129 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-023-029-033-035-045-047-055-059-065-069-077-079-081-087- 101-127-145-151-153-159-165-181-185-191-193-199-190140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CLARK COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI RICHLAND SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC021-025-027-037-051-055-083-093-101-105-117-119-123-125-129- 147-153-163-167-173-190140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAWFORD DAVIESS Read more

WW 0129 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 129 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488 ..THORNTON..04/19/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 129 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-023-029-033-035-045-047-055-059-065-069-077-079-081-087- 101-127-145-151-153-159-165-181-185-191-193-199-190140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CLARK COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI RICHLAND SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC021-025-027-037-051-055-083-093-101-105-117-119-123-125-129- 147-153-163-167-173-190140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAWFORD DAVIESS Read more