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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Monday. ...Central and Southern Florida Peninsula... An upper-level trough will move to the Atlantic Seaboard on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Along and south of the front, surface dewpoints should generally be from 65 to 70 F. As the moist airmass heats up, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday. This activity is expected to persist through much of the afternoon, gradually progressing southeastward to near Miami. NAM forecast soundings from 18Z to 21Z to the northwest of Miami have MLCAPE peaking near 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates reaching 7 C/km. This environment could support an isolated supercell, associated with hail and damaging wind gusts. However, multicell is expected to be the dominant storm mode. The stronger short line segments could be capable of a marginal wind-damage threat. The threat is expected to be concentrated during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Monday. ...Central and Southern Florida Peninsula... An upper-level trough will move to the Atlantic Seaboard on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Along and south of the front, surface dewpoints should generally be from 65 to 70 F. As the moist airmass heats up, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday. This activity is expected to persist through much of the afternoon, gradually progressing southeastward to near Miami. NAM forecast soundings from 18Z to 21Z to the northwest of Miami have MLCAPE peaking near 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates reaching 7 C/km. This environment could support an isolated supercell, associated with hail and damaging wind gusts. However, multicell is expected to be the dominant storm mode. The stronger short line segments could be capable of a marginal wind-damage threat. The threat is expected to be concentrated during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Monday. ...Central and Southern Florida Peninsula... An upper-level trough will move to the Atlantic Seaboard on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Along and south of the front, surface dewpoints should generally be from 65 to 70 F. As the moist airmass heats up, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday. This activity is expected to persist through much of the afternoon, gradually progressing southeastward to near Miami. NAM forecast soundings from 18Z to 21Z to the northwest of Miami have MLCAPE peaking near 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates reaching 7 C/km. This environment could support an isolated supercell, associated with hail and damaging wind gusts. However, multicell is expected to be the dominant storm mode. The stronger short line segments could be capable of a marginal wind-damage threat. The threat is expected to be concentrated during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Monday. ...Central and Southern Florida Peninsula... An upper-level trough will move to the Atlantic Seaboard on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Along and south of the front, surface dewpoints should generally be from 65 to 70 F. As the moist airmass heats up, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday. This activity is expected to persist through much of the afternoon, gradually progressing southeastward to near Miami. NAM forecast soundings from 18Z to 21Z to the northwest of Miami have MLCAPE peaking near 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates reaching 7 C/km. This environment could support an isolated supercell, associated with hail and damaging wind gusts. However, multicell is expected to be the dominant storm mode. The stronger short line segments could be capable of a marginal wind-damage threat. The threat is expected to be concentrated during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Monday. ...Central and Southern Florida Peninsula... An upper-level trough will move to the Atlantic Seaboard on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Along and south of the front, surface dewpoints should generally be from 65 to 70 F. As the moist airmass heats up, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday. This activity is expected to persist through much of the afternoon, gradually progressing southeastward to near Miami. NAM forecast soundings from 18Z to 21Z to the northwest of Miami have MLCAPE peaking near 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates reaching 7 C/km. This environment could support an isolated supercell, associated with hail and damaging wind gusts. However, multicell is expected to be the dominant storm mode. The stronger short line segments could be capable of a marginal wind-damage threat. The threat is expected to be concentrated during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Monday. ...Central and Southern Florida Peninsula... An upper-level trough will move to the Atlantic Seaboard on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Along and south of the front, surface dewpoints should generally be from 65 to 70 F. As the moist airmass heats up, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday. This activity is expected to persist through much of the afternoon, gradually progressing southeastward to near Miami. NAM forecast soundings from 18Z to 21Z to the northwest of Miami have MLCAPE peaking near 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates reaching 7 C/km. This environment could support an isolated supercell, associated with hail and damaging wind gusts. However, multicell is expected to be the dominant storm mode. The stronger short line segments could be capable of a marginal wind-damage threat. The threat is expected to be concentrated during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast, but severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low. ...Southeast GA into north FL... A surface cold front will be located near the South Carolina coast southwest to western FL Panhandle and northern Gulf of Mexico at 12z. A moist airmass will exist ahead of the front across northern FL and southeast GA. Modest destabilization, with MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg is forecast. Forecast soundings indicate capping will limit thunderstorm activity except very near the southeastward-advancing cold front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible by early afternoon. A couple of strong storms with gusty winds are possible, and possibly hail. However, overall severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast, but severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low. ...Southeast GA into north FL... A surface cold front will be located near the South Carolina coast southwest to western FL Panhandle and northern Gulf of Mexico at 12z. A moist airmass will exist ahead of the front across northern FL and southeast GA. Modest destabilization, with MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg is forecast. Forecast soundings indicate capping will limit thunderstorm activity except very near the southeastward-advancing cold front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible by early afternoon. A couple of strong storms with gusty winds are possible, and possibly hail. However, overall severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast, but severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low. ...Southeast GA into north FL... A surface cold front will be located near the South Carolina coast southwest to western FL Panhandle and northern Gulf of Mexico at 12z. A moist airmass will exist ahead of the front across northern FL and southeast GA. Modest destabilization, with MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg is forecast. Forecast soundings indicate capping will limit thunderstorm activity except very near the southeastward-advancing cold front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible by early afternoon. A couple of strong storms with gusty winds are possible, and possibly hail. However, overall severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast, but severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low. ...Southeast GA into north FL... A surface cold front will be located near the South Carolina coast southwest to western FL Panhandle and northern Gulf of Mexico at 12z. A moist airmass will exist ahead of the front across northern FL and southeast GA. Modest destabilization, with MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg is forecast. Forecast soundings indicate capping will limit thunderstorm activity except very near the southeastward-advancing cold front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible by early afternoon. A couple of strong storms with gusty winds are possible, and possibly hail. However, overall severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast, but severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low. ...Southeast GA into north FL... A surface cold front will be located near the South Carolina coast southwest to western FL Panhandle and northern Gulf of Mexico at 12z. A moist airmass will exist ahead of the front across northern FL and southeast GA. Modest destabilization, with MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg is forecast. Forecast soundings indicate capping will limit thunderstorm activity except very near the southeastward-advancing cold front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible by early afternoon. A couple of strong storms with gusty winds are possible, and possibly hail. However, overall severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast, but severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low. ...Southeast GA into north FL... A surface cold front will be located near the South Carolina coast southwest to western FL Panhandle and northern Gulf of Mexico at 12z. A moist airmass will exist ahead of the front across northern FL and southeast GA. Modest destabilization, with MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg is forecast. Forecast soundings indicate capping will limit thunderstorm activity except very near the southeastward-advancing cold front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible by early afternoon. A couple of strong storms with gusty winds are possible, and possibly hail. However, overall severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/21/2024 Read more

MD 0502 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO DEEP SOUTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0502 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Areas affected...South-central into deep south TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 210046Z - 210215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may evolve with time this evening, with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently increased in coverage and intensity north of a cold front across western portions of south-central TX, with recent initiation noted farther south near a stationary front, north of Laredo. Confidence in greater storm coverage this evening is higher with northward extent, where elevated convection may continue to evolve within an environment characterized by MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg (as noted in the 00Z DRT sounding) and sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. Isolated hail will be possible within this regime as storms spread eastward with time. Near-term storm potential farther south remains more uncertain, with generally nebulous large-scale ascent across the region, and some nocturnal cooling/stabilization expected with time. However, the environment south of the deeper post-frontal cold air is conditionally favorable for severe storms, with steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture supporting MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. If a supercell can evolve within this regime, there would be at least an isolated threat of large to very large hail (approaching 2 inches in diameter), along with some threat for severe gusts with convection that remains rooted closer to the surface. Watch issuance is possible, if supercell development within this more favorable environment appears imminent. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28050022 28520043 29779985 29769811 28009808 27019871 26799929 27129981 28050022 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and hail will be possible mainly the remainder of this evening into tonight across portions of central and south Texas. ...Central/Southern TX... Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of central TX based on current radar trends and evolution of the rain-cooled airmass. However, a small Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been added across parts of south TX near/just ahead of the surface front draped west to east from Webb County toward the coast. Convergence along this boundary is noted and several cells have begun to develop over the past 30-60 minutes. Modified 00z DRT RAOB, along with the 00z CRP RAOB and 23z RAP forecast soundings show an environment favorable for large hail and strong thunderstorm gusts. An airmass characterized by large instability through a deep layer, elongated hodographs, and sufficient effective shear, should support at couple of storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Furthermore, cells moving east/southeast across northeast Mexico may approach/cross the Rio Grande over the next few hours, also posing some severe risk. ...Mississippi to the Carolinas... A couple of strong storms may persist another few hours (through midnight local time) from southern MS to GA. Locally gusty winds and small hail may occur with the strongest cells. Across the Carolinas, overall severe potential should come to an end once a severe storm near the SC/NC coastal border vicinity moves offshore. Given the diminishing threat, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been removed with the 01z update. ..Leitman.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and hail will be possible mainly the remainder of this evening into tonight across portions of central and south Texas. ...Central/Southern TX... Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of central TX based on current radar trends and evolution of the rain-cooled airmass. However, a small Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been added across parts of south TX near/just ahead of the surface front draped west to east from Webb County toward the coast. Convergence along this boundary is noted and several cells have begun to develop over the past 30-60 minutes. Modified 00z DRT RAOB, along with the 00z CRP RAOB and 23z RAP forecast soundings show an environment favorable for large hail and strong thunderstorm gusts. An airmass characterized by large instability through a deep layer, elongated hodographs, and sufficient effective shear, should support at couple of storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Furthermore, cells moving east/southeast across northeast Mexico may approach/cross the Rio Grande over the next few hours, also posing some severe risk. ...Mississippi to the Carolinas... A couple of strong storms may persist another few hours (through midnight local time) from southern MS to GA. Locally gusty winds and small hail may occur with the strongest cells. Across the Carolinas, overall severe potential should come to an end once a severe storm near the SC/NC coastal border vicinity moves offshore. Given the diminishing threat, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been removed with the 01z update. ..Leitman.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and hail will be possible mainly the remainder of this evening into tonight across portions of central and south Texas. ...Central/Southern TX... Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of central TX based on current radar trends and evolution of the rain-cooled airmass. However, a small Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been added across parts of south TX near/just ahead of the surface front draped west to east from Webb County toward the coast. Convergence along this boundary is noted and several cells have begun to develop over the past 30-60 minutes. Modified 00z DRT RAOB, along with the 00z CRP RAOB and 23z RAP forecast soundings show an environment favorable for large hail and strong thunderstorm gusts. An airmass characterized by large instability through a deep layer, elongated hodographs, and sufficient effective shear, should support at couple of storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Furthermore, cells moving east/southeast across northeast Mexico may approach/cross the Rio Grande over the next few hours, also posing some severe risk. ...Mississippi to the Carolinas... A couple of strong storms may persist another few hours (through midnight local time) from southern MS to GA. Locally gusty winds and small hail may occur with the strongest cells. Across the Carolinas, overall severe potential should come to an end once a severe storm near the SC/NC coastal border vicinity moves offshore. Given the diminishing threat, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been removed with the 01z update. ..Leitman.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and hail will be possible mainly the remainder of this evening into tonight across portions of central and south Texas. ...Central/Southern TX... Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of central TX based on current radar trends and evolution of the rain-cooled airmass. However, a small Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been added across parts of south TX near/just ahead of the surface front draped west to east from Webb County toward the coast. Convergence along this boundary is noted and several cells have begun to develop over the past 30-60 minutes. Modified 00z DRT RAOB, along with the 00z CRP RAOB and 23z RAP forecast soundings show an environment favorable for large hail and strong thunderstorm gusts. An airmass characterized by large instability through a deep layer, elongated hodographs, and sufficient effective shear, should support at couple of storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Furthermore, cells moving east/southeast across northeast Mexico may approach/cross the Rio Grande over the next few hours, also posing some severe risk. ...Mississippi to the Carolinas... A couple of strong storms may persist another few hours (through midnight local time) from southern MS to GA. Locally gusty winds and small hail may occur with the strongest cells. Across the Carolinas, overall severe potential should come to an end once a severe storm near the SC/NC coastal border vicinity moves offshore. Given the diminishing threat, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been removed with the 01z update. ..Leitman.. 04/21/2024 Read more