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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Monday. ...Synopsis... A cold front currently draped across the southeastern states to the northern Gulf will continue to slowly push south/southeast over the next 24-48 hours. This feature should reach the central to southern FL peninsula by mid-day Monday. Thunderstorms will likely be focused along this boundary as it pushes towards far south FL by late Monday evening. Across the Plains, more isolated thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front and in the vicinity of a surface low from northeast CO to the upper MS River Valley. ...South Florida... Heating of a moist air mass currently in place across south FL, combined with modest mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of the approaching front. Although low-level flow will be somewhat weak, winds aloft will be sufficiently strong to support effective bulk wind differences on the order of 30-40 knots. Elongated, nearly straight hodographs should favor splitting cells with the potential for a couple of right-moving supercells that will pose a large hail threat. However, storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors should largely be along the surface boundary, and weak inhibition may favor multiple thunderstorms along the front by peak heating. These factors could favor upscale growth of cells into clusters by late afternoon, which may limit the supercell potential. Regardless, both discrete/semi-discrete cells and/or more organized clusters should pose a damaging wind threat given low-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km by mid afternoon. Latest CAM guidance suggests the severe threat is most likely to manifest across the southern portion of the Marginal risk area - particularly in the Miami vicinity as the front arrives by late afternoon. However, a few strong/severe storms will be possible late morning further north. ...Eastern CO to northwest KS... Dry conditions are prevalent across the Plains in the wake of the recent frontal passage. However, modified mid-level Pacific moisture associated with an approaching shortwave trough (currently over portions of the Pacific Northwest) should overspread parts of the central to northern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Modest mid-level moisture atop a deep, well-mixed boundary layer may support sufficient buoyancy for a few thunderstorms with an attendant risk for dry downbursts along a weak surface cold front. Strong to severe outflow gusts are possible based on the forecast thermodynamic profiles, but do not appear to be probable based on convective signals in latest guidance and discrepancies between solutions regarding mid-level saturation (and resultant buoyancy). Forecast trends will be monitored for the need for low-end, wind-driven risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Monday. ...Synopsis... A cold front currently draped across the southeastern states to the northern Gulf will continue to slowly push south/southeast over the next 24-48 hours. This feature should reach the central to southern FL peninsula by mid-day Monday. Thunderstorms will likely be focused along this boundary as it pushes towards far south FL by late Monday evening. Across the Plains, more isolated thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front and in the vicinity of a surface low from northeast CO to the upper MS River Valley. ...South Florida... Heating of a moist air mass currently in place across south FL, combined with modest mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of the approaching front. Although low-level flow will be somewhat weak, winds aloft will be sufficiently strong to support effective bulk wind differences on the order of 30-40 knots. Elongated, nearly straight hodographs should favor splitting cells with the potential for a couple of right-moving supercells that will pose a large hail threat. However, storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors should largely be along the surface boundary, and weak inhibition may favor multiple thunderstorms along the front by peak heating. These factors could favor upscale growth of cells into clusters by late afternoon, which may limit the supercell potential. Regardless, both discrete/semi-discrete cells and/or more organized clusters should pose a damaging wind threat given low-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km by mid afternoon. Latest CAM guidance suggests the severe threat is most likely to manifest across the southern portion of the Marginal risk area - particularly in the Miami vicinity as the front arrives by late afternoon. However, a few strong/severe storms will be possible late morning further north. ...Eastern CO to northwest KS... Dry conditions are prevalent across the Plains in the wake of the recent frontal passage. However, modified mid-level Pacific moisture associated with an approaching shortwave trough (currently over portions of the Pacific Northwest) should overspread parts of the central to northern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Modest mid-level moisture atop a deep, well-mixed boundary layer may support sufficient buoyancy for a few thunderstorms with an attendant risk for dry downbursts along a weak surface cold front. Strong to severe outflow gusts are possible based on the forecast thermodynamic profiles, but do not appear to be probable based on convective signals in latest guidance and discrepancies between solutions regarding mid-level saturation (and resultant buoyancy). Forecast trends will be monitored for the need for low-end, wind-driven risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Monday. ...Synopsis... A cold front currently draped across the southeastern states to the northern Gulf will continue to slowly push south/southeast over the next 24-48 hours. This feature should reach the central to southern FL peninsula by mid-day Monday. Thunderstorms will likely be focused along this boundary as it pushes towards far south FL by late Monday evening. Across the Plains, more isolated thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front and in the vicinity of a surface low from northeast CO to the upper MS River Valley. ...South Florida... Heating of a moist air mass currently in place across south FL, combined with modest mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of the approaching front. Although low-level flow will be somewhat weak, winds aloft will be sufficiently strong to support effective bulk wind differences on the order of 30-40 knots. Elongated, nearly straight hodographs should favor splitting cells with the potential for a couple of right-moving supercells that will pose a large hail threat. However, storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors should largely be along the surface boundary, and weak inhibition may favor multiple thunderstorms along the front by peak heating. These factors could favor upscale growth of cells into clusters by late afternoon, which may limit the supercell potential. Regardless, both discrete/semi-discrete cells and/or more organized clusters should pose a damaging wind threat given low-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km by mid afternoon. Latest CAM guidance suggests the severe threat is most likely to manifest across the southern portion of the Marginal risk area - particularly in the Miami vicinity as the front arrives by late afternoon. However, a few strong/severe storms will be possible late morning further north. ...Eastern CO to northwest KS... Dry conditions are prevalent across the Plains in the wake of the recent frontal passage. However, modified mid-level Pacific moisture associated with an approaching shortwave trough (currently over portions of the Pacific Northwest) should overspread parts of the central to northern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Modest mid-level moisture atop a deep, well-mixed boundary layer may support sufficient buoyancy for a few thunderstorms with an attendant risk for dry downbursts along a weak surface cold front. Strong to severe outflow gusts are possible based on the forecast thermodynamic profiles, but do not appear to be probable based on convective signals in latest guidance and discrepancies between solutions regarding mid-level saturation (and resultant buoyancy). Forecast trends will be monitored for the need for low-end, wind-driven risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows a cumulus field and a destabilizing airmass to the east of an ongoing band of convection near a southwest-northeast oriented front. Ample heating over the area to the east of patchy cirrus will promote temperatures warming into the lower 80s deg F. 12z model guidance so far has a negative bias on surface dewpoints across north FL compared to observations (3-6 deg F too dry). This is partially explained by a richer moist profile observed through almost 850 mb via the 12z Tallahassee raob. As a result, slightly higher dewpoints (upper 60s deg F) and greater buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected than previously forecast. Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving east across the central Gulf Coast, and it will reach the northeast Gulf by late this afternoon/early evening. Ascent and some strengthening in flow will aid in some storm organization (reference 50-kt 2-6 km flow at Tallahassee on the 88D VAD). Limited low-level convergence and a warm layer near 800 mb may act to hinder an otherwise more organized potential severe setup. Regardless, isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows a cumulus field and a destabilizing airmass to the east of an ongoing band of convection near a southwest-northeast oriented front. Ample heating over the area to the east of patchy cirrus will promote temperatures warming into the lower 80s deg F. 12z model guidance so far has a negative bias on surface dewpoints across north FL compared to observations (3-6 deg F too dry). This is partially explained by a richer moist profile observed through almost 850 mb via the 12z Tallahassee raob. As a result, slightly higher dewpoints (upper 60s deg F) and greater buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected than previously forecast. Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving east across the central Gulf Coast, and it will reach the northeast Gulf by late this afternoon/early evening. Ascent and some strengthening in flow will aid in some storm organization (reference 50-kt 2-6 km flow at Tallahassee on the 88D VAD). Limited low-level convergence and a warm layer near 800 mb may act to hinder an otherwise more organized potential severe setup. Regardless, isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows a cumulus field and a destabilizing airmass to the east of an ongoing band of convection near a southwest-northeast oriented front. Ample heating over the area to the east of patchy cirrus will promote temperatures warming into the lower 80s deg F. 12z model guidance so far has a negative bias on surface dewpoints across north FL compared to observations (3-6 deg F too dry). This is partially explained by a richer moist profile observed through almost 850 mb via the 12z Tallahassee raob. As a result, slightly higher dewpoints (upper 60s deg F) and greater buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected than previously forecast. Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving east across the central Gulf Coast, and it will reach the northeast Gulf by late this afternoon/early evening. Ascent and some strengthening in flow will aid in some storm organization (reference 50-kt 2-6 km flow at Tallahassee on the 88D VAD). Limited low-level convergence and a warm layer near 800 mb may act to hinder an otherwise more organized potential severe setup. Regardless, isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows a cumulus field and a destabilizing airmass to the east of an ongoing band of convection near a southwest-northeast oriented front. Ample heating over the area to the east of patchy cirrus will promote temperatures warming into the lower 80s deg F. 12z model guidance so far has a negative bias on surface dewpoints across north FL compared to observations (3-6 deg F too dry). This is partially explained by a richer moist profile observed through almost 850 mb via the 12z Tallahassee raob. As a result, slightly higher dewpoints (upper 60s deg F) and greater buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected than previously forecast. Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving east across the central Gulf Coast, and it will reach the northeast Gulf by late this afternoon/early evening. Ascent and some strengthening in flow will aid in some storm organization (reference 50-kt 2-6 km flow at Tallahassee on the 88D VAD). Limited low-level convergence and a warm layer near 800 mb may act to hinder an otherwise more organized potential severe setup. Regardless, isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows a cumulus field and a destabilizing airmass to the east of an ongoing band of convection near a southwest-northeast oriented front. Ample heating over the area to the east of patchy cirrus will promote temperatures warming into the lower 80s deg F. 12z model guidance so far has a negative bias on surface dewpoints across north FL compared to observations (3-6 deg F too dry). This is partially explained by a richer moist profile observed through almost 850 mb via the 12z Tallahassee raob. As a result, slightly higher dewpoints (upper 60s deg F) and greater buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected than previously forecast. Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving east across the central Gulf Coast, and it will reach the northeast Gulf by late this afternoon/early evening. Ascent and some strengthening in flow will aid in some storm organization (reference 50-kt 2-6 km flow at Tallahassee on the 88D VAD). Limited low-level convergence and a warm layer near 800 mb may act to hinder an otherwise more organized potential severe setup. Regardless, isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows a cumulus field and a destabilizing airmass to the east of an ongoing band of convection near a southwest-northeast oriented front. Ample heating over the area to the east of patchy cirrus will promote temperatures warming into the lower 80s deg F. 12z model guidance so far has a negative bias on surface dewpoints across north FL compared to observations (3-6 deg F too dry). This is partially explained by a richer moist profile observed through almost 850 mb via the 12z Tallahassee raob. As a result, slightly higher dewpoints (upper 60s deg F) and greater buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected than previously forecast. Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving east across the central Gulf Coast, and it will reach the northeast Gulf by late this afternoon/early evening. Ascent and some strengthening in flow will aid in some storm organization (reference 50-kt 2-6 km flow at Tallahassee on the 88D VAD). Limited low-level convergence and a warm layer near 800 mb may act to hinder an otherwise more organized potential severe setup. Regardless, isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows a cumulus field and a destabilizing airmass to the east of an ongoing band of convection near a southwest-northeast oriented front. Ample heating over the area to the east of patchy cirrus will promote temperatures warming into the lower 80s deg F. 12z model guidance so far has a negative bias on surface dewpoints across north FL compared to observations (3-6 deg F too dry). This is partially explained by a richer moist profile observed through almost 850 mb via the 12z Tallahassee raob. As a result, slightly higher dewpoints (upper 60s deg F) and greater buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected than previously forecast. Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving east across the central Gulf Coast, and it will reach the northeast Gulf by late this afternoon/early evening. Ascent and some strengthening in flow will aid in some storm organization (reference 50-kt 2-6 km flow at Tallahassee on the 88D VAD). Limited low-level convergence and a warm layer near 800 mb may act to hinder an otherwise more organized potential severe setup. Regardless, isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch diameter will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... A low amplitude shortwave trough over the north central Gulf coast will progress eastward over south GA/north FL by late afternoon, in advance of an upstream trough over the mid MS Valley. An associated cold front will move slowly southeastward and offshore of the Carolinas this afternoon, and into central FL by Monday morning. Regional 12z soundings from JAX/TLH show lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and an associated cap which is expected to weaken from the west by afternoon, when thunderstorm development will become more probable with surface heating, ascent along the front, and with larger-scale ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough. The warm sector ahead of the front across south GA/north FL will be characterized by mid 60s dewpoints and surface temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s in cloud breaks by afternoon, where MLCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg. Coincident with diurnal destabilization, midlevel flow will increase to 50 kt with largely straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt. This environment of moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will support the potential for multicell clusters and/or low-end supercells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch diameter will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... A low amplitude shortwave trough over the north central Gulf coast will progress eastward over south GA/north FL by late afternoon, in advance of an upstream trough over the mid MS Valley. An associated cold front will move slowly southeastward and offshore of the Carolinas this afternoon, and into central FL by Monday morning. Regional 12z soundings from JAX/TLH show lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and an associated cap which is expected to weaken from the west by afternoon, when thunderstorm development will become more probable with surface heating, ascent along the front, and with larger-scale ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough. The warm sector ahead of the front across south GA/north FL will be characterized by mid 60s dewpoints and surface temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s in cloud breaks by afternoon, where MLCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg. Coincident with diurnal destabilization, midlevel flow will increase to 50 kt with largely straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt. This environment of moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will support the potential for multicell clusters and/or low-end supercells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch diameter will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... A low amplitude shortwave trough over the north central Gulf coast will progress eastward over south GA/north FL by late afternoon, in advance of an upstream trough over the mid MS Valley. An associated cold front will move slowly southeastward and offshore of the Carolinas this afternoon, and into central FL by Monday morning. Regional 12z soundings from JAX/TLH show lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and an associated cap which is expected to weaken from the west by afternoon, when thunderstorm development will become more probable with surface heating, ascent along the front, and with larger-scale ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough. The warm sector ahead of the front across south GA/north FL will be characterized by mid 60s dewpoints and surface temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s in cloud breaks by afternoon, where MLCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg. Coincident with diurnal destabilization, midlevel flow will increase to 50 kt with largely straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt. This environment of moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will support the potential for multicell clusters and/or low-end supercells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/21/2024 Read more