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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe storms may continue for another hour or two this evening in Deep South Texas and parts of the Mid-South. ...01Z Update... Convection within Deep South Texas is nearly offshore. Isolated damaging winds may occur prior that occurring. In the Mid-South, convection along the southern flank of an MCV/shortwave trough has shown some signs of low-level rotation. Though this convection is weak and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, isolated wind damage and a brief tornado could occur in the next 1-2 hours before storms weaken. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 5 23:18:04 UTC 2024.

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ALI TO 35 W NIR TO 15 SSE NIR. ..GOSS..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC025-089-131-249-273-297-355-409-060040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEE COLORADO DUVAL JIM WELLS KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES SAN PATRICIO GMZ231-232-250-270-060040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GMZ231 GMZ232 GMZ250 GMZ270 THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 186 SEVERE TSTM TX 051805Z - 060000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 186 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-central Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely continue to develop through the early and mid afternoon across the Watch area. Ample high-level flow and a moist and unstable airmass will support organized storms, including supercells and multicells. Large to very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west northwest of Cotulla TX to 35 miles north northeast of Palacios TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Smith Read more

MD 0644 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186... FOR SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0644 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Areas affected...South Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186... Valid 052146Z - 052315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186 continues. SUMMARY...An organized/bowing cluster of storms over South Texas will continue to pose local risk for hail and damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows bowing cluster of strong storms moving southeastward across Deep South Texas at around 25 kt. The storms are being fed by around 30 kt southeasterly low-level inflow per the latest CRP WSR-88D VWP, which -- along with ample downstream instability -- suggests that the storms will be sustained over the next hour or two, with continued southeastward movement. With that said, indications are that capping is stronger to the south, which may hinder the advance of the convection on the southern end to some degree. As such, while storms are on a trajectory to move into portions of the BRO CWA, new WW south of the existing watch may not be needed, though we will continue to monitor convective evolution in the near term, in that regard. ..Goss.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 27889950 28489860 28299724 27759679 26749721 27049864 27499915 27889950 Read more

MD 0643 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Areas affected...Northeast TX/southeast OK into northern LA and southern/central AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052014Z - 052215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for a brief tornado or two could evolve late this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Clearing in the wake of earlier convection is allowing for airmass recovery across northern LA and southern AR. Persistent low-level theta-e advection in advance of a weak surface low across northeast TX may allow for storm redevelopment later this afternoon, within an effective warm frontal zone. With some midlevel drying expected in the wake of the ejecting shortwave trough across AR, the number and intensity of storms later this afternoon remains uncertain. However, increasing moisture/instability and relatively favorable low-level shear/SRH (as noted on the KSHV and KLZK VWPs) could support brief tornado potential with any longer-lived cells late this afternoon into early evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds will also be possible. At this time, the threat is expected to remain rather marginal and isolated, rendering the need for watch issuance uncertain. Trends will be closely monitored for the development of a supercell or two later this afternoon. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 32409427 32499497 33299518 34129536 34329461 34869290 34099140 33459123 32979126 32149166 31889191 31709220 31829266 31979300 32149349 32309394 32409427 Read more

MD 0642 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186... FOR SOUTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0642 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Areas affected...South TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186... Valid 052009Z - 052115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of supercells embedded within a slow, southeast-moving cluster will largely impact the southwest portion of WW 186 through 6 PM CDT. Additional severe storm development will be possible elsewhere, but appears to be trending towards lower probabilities of occurrence. DISCUSSION...A pair of deep convective updrafts with echo tops of 50-55k ft are slowly moving southeastward at around 15 kts. These cells appear to have connected outflow and will likely continue their slow progression over the next couple hours. The environment ahead of them contains appreciable buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, supporting a potential increase in intensity through late afternoon with a mix of large hail to around golf ball size and wind gusts of 55-70 mph possible. With greater MLCIN over Deep South TX, in conjunction with increasing mid-level warming in the wake of a southern-stream low-amplitude shortwave impulse, the severe threat should decrease during the early evening. Farther north and northeast, convection has largely struggled to intensify along residual outflows where the boundary layer has been relatively cooler. 18Z HRRR guidance suggests this activity may not greatly intensify, and the overall severe threat appears marginal. ..Grams.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28709880 28129798 27699780 27349806 27239859 27259913 27919958 28249965 28429966 28709880 Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642. ..GRAMS..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-025-029-055-089-091-123-127-131-149-163-175-177-187-239- 255-271-283-285-297-311-323-325-463-469-479-481-493-507- 052140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BEE BEXAR CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT DUVAL FAYETTE FRIO GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE JACKSON KARNES KINNEY LA SALLE LAVACA LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE VICTORIA WEBB WHARTON WILSON ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642. ..GRAMS..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-025-029-055-089-091-123-127-131-149-163-175-177-187-239- 255-271-283-285-297-311-323-325-463-469-479-481-493-507- 052140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BEE BEXAR CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT DUVAL FAYETTE FRIO GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE JACKSON KARNES KINNEY LA SALLE LAVACA LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE VICTORIA WEBB WHARTON WILSON ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642. ..GRAMS..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-025-029-055-089-091-123-127-131-149-163-175-177-187-239- 255-271-283-285-297-311-323-325-463-469-479-481-493-507- 052140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BEE BEXAR CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT DUVAL FAYETTE FRIO GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE JACKSON KARNES KINNEY LA SALLE LAVACA LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE VICTORIA WEBB WHARTON WILSON ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. ...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern. Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than 20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX. On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. ...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern. Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than 20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX. On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. ...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern. Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than 20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX. On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more