Aggregator

MD 0737 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0737 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Ohio and West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 100000Z - 100200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Local/isolated risk for strong wind gusts will persist for a few hours. WW not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows an uptick in convection from southern Ohio to northern West Virginia, in the vicinity of a southeastern Ohio surface low, and attendant baroclinic zones. Ahead of the front, RAP-based objective analysis suggests that diurnal heating has pushed mixed-layer CAPE to near 1000 J/kg across the Ohio River Valley area, which is contributing to the convective uptick, ahead of the mid-level vort max crossing Lake Erie/Ohio at this time. Moderately strong west-northwesterly flow through the lower and middle troposphere is indicated across this region, which may support some additional, small-scale convective organization. Attendant severe risk -- primarily in the form of locally gusty/damaging winds with stronger convective elements -- will likely continue for the next 2 to 3 hours. Thereafter, as nocturnal cooling commences, severe risk is expected to gradually diminish. As such, limited risk -- both in temporally and in terms of magnitude -- will likely preclude any need for WW issuance. ..Goss/Hart.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...ILN... LAT...LON 38908359 39228308 39638161 39837995 39417924 38597959 37848057 37908187 38548299 38908359 Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0225 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0225 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0224 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 224 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW SAT TO 60 NW AUS TO 20 NW TPL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738 ..SQUITIERI..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 224 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC031-069-081-085-100240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE DE SOTO NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE TXC005-015-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-073-091-149-161-177-185- 187-209-225-287-289-313-331-347-373-395-403-405-407-419-453-455- 471-477-491-100240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL CHEROKEE COMAL FAYETTE FREESTONE GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HAYS HOUSTON LEE LEON MADISON Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 Read more