Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is expected to extend from the Mid MS Valley through the Lower MS Valley early D4/Tuesday before then gradually progressing eastward through the TN Valley and MS/AL throughout the day. This wave is then forecast to continue progressing eastward through GA, northern FL, and Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday. Farther west, another southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move across northern Mexico and into the southern Plains on D5/Wednesday, continuing eastward through the Lower MS Valley on D6/Thursday. Some severe potential may materialize across the Southeast and FL on D4/Tuesday, where moderate buoyancy and shear could be in place ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, there is some chance the better low-level moisture and buoyancy will remain displaced south of the better forcing as a result from either thunderstorm development along the coast late Monday night/early Tuesday morning or an overturning of the airmass by a convective line. This uncertainty limits predictability. Low-level moisture is forecast to advect back northward across the southern Plain on D5/Wednesday ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough mentioned above. Thunderstorms are possible from the TX Panhandle into the Edwards Plateau as ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this moisture and buoyancy. However, vertical shear is currently expected to be fairly modest across much of the region, with the strongest shear expected farther south where convective evolution is less certain. Uncertainty regarding severe coverage is too high to highlight any areas with this outlook. Spread within the guidance increases after D5/Wednesday, with split flow contributing to low-predictability. Even so, the persistence of favorable low-level moisture and buoyancy from TX across the Southeast states suggest some severe potential could materialize from mid-week through the weekend. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday from central and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Plains south-southwestward into northeast Mexico early Monday morning, with associated strong mid-level flow spread from the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. This shortwave is forecast to move gradually eastward, with some phasing possible with a northern-stream shortwave contributing to more expansive troughing from the Mid MS Valley into the eastern southern Plains by early Tuesday morning. Primary surface low associated with the southern-stream shortwave is expected to progress eastward/northeastward from south-central KS into the Mid MS Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push southeastward through much of OK, TX and the Ozark Plateau, reaching the Mid/Lower MS Valley by early Tuesday morning. A very moist and unstable air mass will be in place ahead of this front, with low 70s dewpoints initially extending from central into northeast/east TX before spreading eastward with time. Moderate to strong southwesterlies at the base of the shortwave will also support to robust vertical shear, with the resulting combination of buoyancy and shear contributing to an environment supportive of severe thunderstorms. Convective evolution of these storms is uncertain, particularly with eastern extent, but the general expectation is for storms to develop along the front and then push eastward throughout the day. Given the ample low-level moisture, development along the front could occur quite early, with one or more convective lines evolving over time. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe threat initially, with a trend towards more damaging gust potential as storms grow upscale. Relatively weak low-level flow show keep the tornado threat low. The only exception is near the warm front, which will likely extend from northeast TX eastward into the southern AR/northern LA vicinity from Monday morning until at least the mid afternoon. ..Mosier.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday from central and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Plains south-southwestward into northeast Mexico early Monday morning, with associated strong mid-level flow spread from the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. This shortwave is forecast to move gradually eastward, with some phasing possible with a northern-stream shortwave contributing to more expansive troughing from the Mid MS Valley into the eastern southern Plains by early Tuesday morning. Primary surface low associated with the southern-stream shortwave is expected to progress eastward/northeastward from south-central KS into the Mid MS Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push southeastward through much of OK, TX and the Ozark Plateau, reaching the Mid/Lower MS Valley by early Tuesday morning. A very moist and unstable air mass will be in place ahead of this front, with low 70s dewpoints initially extending from central into northeast/east TX before spreading eastward with time. Moderate to strong southwesterlies at the base of the shortwave will also support to robust vertical shear, with the resulting combination of buoyancy and shear contributing to an environment supportive of severe thunderstorms. Convective evolution of these storms is uncertain, particularly with eastern extent, but the general expectation is for storms to develop along the front and then push eastward throughout the day. Given the ample low-level moisture, development along the front could occur quite early, with one or more convective lines evolving over time. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe threat initially, with a trend towards more damaging gust potential as storms grow upscale. Relatively weak low-level flow show keep the tornado threat low. The only exception is near the warm front, which will likely extend from northeast TX eastward into the southern AR/northern LA vicinity from Monday morning until at least the mid afternoon. ..Mosier.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday from central and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Plains south-southwestward into northeast Mexico early Monday morning, with associated strong mid-level flow spread from the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. This shortwave is forecast to move gradually eastward, with some phasing possible with a northern-stream shortwave contributing to more expansive troughing from the Mid MS Valley into the eastern southern Plains by early Tuesday morning. Primary surface low associated with the southern-stream shortwave is expected to progress eastward/northeastward from south-central KS into the Mid MS Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push southeastward through much of OK, TX and the Ozark Plateau, reaching the Mid/Lower MS Valley by early Tuesday morning. A very moist and unstable air mass will be in place ahead of this front, with low 70s dewpoints initially extending from central into northeast/east TX before spreading eastward with time. Moderate to strong southwesterlies at the base of the shortwave will also support to robust vertical shear, with the resulting combination of buoyancy and shear contributing to an environment supportive of severe thunderstorms. Convective evolution of these storms is uncertain, particularly with eastern extent, but the general expectation is for storms to develop along the front and then push eastward throughout the day. Given the ample low-level moisture, development along the front could occur quite early, with one or more convective lines evolving over time. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe threat initially, with a trend towards more damaging gust potential as storms grow upscale. Relatively weak low-level flow show keep the tornado threat low. The only exception is near the warm front, which will likely extend from northeast TX eastward into the southern AR/northern LA vicinity from Monday morning until at least the mid afternoon. ..Mosier.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday from central and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Plains south-southwestward into northeast Mexico early Monday morning, with associated strong mid-level flow spread from the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. This shortwave is forecast to move gradually eastward, with some phasing possible with a northern-stream shortwave contributing to more expansive troughing from the Mid MS Valley into the eastern southern Plains by early Tuesday morning. Primary surface low associated with the southern-stream shortwave is expected to progress eastward/northeastward from south-central KS into the Mid MS Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push southeastward through much of OK, TX and the Ozark Plateau, reaching the Mid/Lower MS Valley by early Tuesday morning. A very moist and unstable air mass will be in place ahead of this front, with low 70s dewpoints initially extending from central into northeast/east TX before spreading eastward with time. Moderate to strong southwesterlies at the base of the shortwave will also support to robust vertical shear, with the resulting combination of buoyancy and shear contributing to an environment supportive of severe thunderstorms. Convective evolution of these storms is uncertain, particularly with eastern extent, but the general expectation is for storms to develop along the front and then push eastward throughout the day. Given the ample low-level moisture, development along the front could occur quite early, with one or more convective lines evolving over time. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe threat initially, with a trend towards more damaging gust potential as storms grow upscale. Relatively weak low-level flow show keep the tornado threat low. The only exception is near the warm front, which will likely extend from northeast TX eastward into the southern AR/northern LA vicinity from Monday morning until at least the mid afternoon. ..Mosier.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday from central and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Plains south-southwestward into northeast Mexico early Monday morning, with associated strong mid-level flow spread from the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. This shortwave is forecast to move gradually eastward, with some phasing possible with a northern-stream shortwave contributing to more expansive troughing from the Mid MS Valley into the eastern southern Plains by early Tuesday morning. Primary surface low associated with the southern-stream shortwave is expected to progress eastward/northeastward from south-central KS into the Mid MS Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push southeastward through much of OK, TX and the Ozark Plateau, reaching the Mid/Lower MS Valley by early Tuesday morning. A very moist and unstable air mass will be in place ahead of this front, with low 70s dewpoints initially extending from central into northeast/east TX before spreading eastward with time. Moderate to strong southwesterlies at the base of the shortwave will also support to robust vertical shear, with the resulting combination of buoyancy and shear contributing to an environment supportive of severe thunderstorms. Convective evolution of these storms is uncertain, particularly with eastern extent, but the general expectation is for storms to develop along the front and then push eastward throughout the day. Given the ample low-level moisture, development along the front could occur quite early, with one or more convective lines evolving over time. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe threat initially, with a trend towards more damaging gust potential as storms grow upscale. Relatively weak low-level flow show keep the tornado threat low. The only exception is near the warm front, which will likely extend from northeast TX eastward into the southern AR/northern LA vicinity from Monday morning until at least the mid afternoon. ..Mosier.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday from central and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Plains south-southwestward into northeast Mexico early Monday morning, with associated strong mid-level flow spread from the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. This shortwave is forecast to move gradually eastward, with some phasing possible with a northern-stream shortwave contributing to more expansive troughing from the Mid MS Valley into the eastern southern Plains by early Tuesday morning. Primary surface low associated with the southern-stream shortwave is expected to progress eastward/northeastward from south-central KS into the Mid MS Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push southeastward through much of OK, TX and the Ozark Plateau, reaching the Mid/Lower MS Valley by early Tuesday morning. A very moist and unstable air mass will be in place ahead of this front, with low 70s dewpoints initially extending from central into northeast/east TX before spreading eastward with time. Moderate to strong southwesterlies at the base of the shortwave will also support to robust vertical shear, with the resulting combination of buoyancy and shear contributing to an environment supportive of severe thunderstorms. Convective evolution of these storms is uncertain, particularly with eastern extent, but the general expectation is for storms to develop along the front and then push eastward throughout the day. Given the ample low-level moisture, development along the front could occur quite early, with one or more convective lines evolving over time. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe threat initially, with a trend towards more damaging gust potential as storms grow upscale. Relatively weak low-level flow show keep the tornado threat low. The only exception is near the warm front, which will likely extend from northeast TX eastward into the southern AR/northern LA vicinity from Monday morning until at least the mid afternoon. ..Mosier.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday), encouraging surface lee troughing across the southern High Plains as a low-level mass response. Across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas, surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times (with higher gusts) while RH drops to 10 percent for at least a few hours Sunday afternoon. Critical highlights have been introduced where there is strong agreement among guidance members in these conditions occurring. Elsewhere across the CONUS, dry conditions may persist across the Florida Peninsula, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. Likewise, fire weather highlights have been withheld over portions of the northern Plains. Here widespread northerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph will be common, but with marginally supportive RH and fuels tempering the wildfire-spread threat to anything more than a localized threat. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday), encouraging surface lee troughing across the southern High Plains as a low-level mass response. Across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas, surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times (with higher gusts) while RH drops to 10 percent for at least a few hours Sunday afternoon. Critical highlights have been introduced where there is strong agreement among guidance members in these conditions occurring. Elsewhere across the CONUS, dry conditions may persist across the Florida Peninsula, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. Likewise, fire weather highlights have been withheld over portions of the northern Plains. Here widespread northerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph will be common, but with marginally supportive RH and fuels tempering the wildfire-spread threat to anything more than a localized threat. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday), encouraging surface lee troughing across the southern High Plains as a low-level mass response. Across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas, surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times (with higher gusts) while RH drops to 10 percent for at least a few hours Sunday afternoon. Critical highlights have been introduced where there is strong agreement among guidance members in these conditions occurring. Elsewhere across the CONUS, dry conditions may persist across the Florida Peninsula, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. Likewise, fire weather highlights have been withheld over portions of the northern Plains. Here widespread northerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph will be common, but with marginally supportive RH and fuels tempering the wildfire-spread threat to anything more than a localized threat. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday), encouraging surface lee troughing across the southern High Plains as a low-level mass response. Across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas, surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times (with higher gusts) while RH drops to 10 percent for at least a few hours Sunday afternoon. Critical highlights have been introduced where there is strong agreement among guidance members in these conditions occurring. Elsewhere across the CONUS, dry conditions may persist across the Florida Peninsula, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. Likewise, fire weather highlights have been withheld over portions of the northern Plains. Here widespread northerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph will be common, but with marginally supportive RH and fuels tempering the wildfire-spread threat to anything more than a localized threat. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday), encouraging surface lee troughing across the southern High Plains as a low-level mass response. Across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas, surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times (with higher gusts) while RH drops to 10 percent for at least a few hours Sunday afternoon. Critical highlights have been introduced where there is strong agreement among guidance members in these conditions occurring. Elsewhere across the CONUS, dry conditions may persist across the Florida Peninsula, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. Likewise, fire weather highlights have been withheld over portions of the northern Plains. Here widespread northerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph will be common, but with marginally supportive RH and fuels tempering the wildfire-spread threat to anything more than a localized threat. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday), encouraging surface lee troughing across the southern High Plains as a low-level mass response. Across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas, surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times (with higher gusts) while RH drops to 10 percent for at least a few hours Sunday afternoon. Critical highlights have been introduced where there is strong agreement among guidance members in these conditions occurring. Elsewhere across the CONUS, dry conditions may persist across the Florida Peninsula, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. Likewise, fire weather highlights have been withheld over portions of the northern Plains. Here widespread northerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph will be common, but with marginally supportive RH and fuels tempering the wildfire-spread threat to anything more than a localized threat. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into central and southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico through the southern Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward through the Lower MS Valley and into the Southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX early Sunday morning, supported by persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread northeastward throughout the day, with the associated cloudiness limiting heating and destabilization. Some clearing is anticipated west of this area of precipitation, with some modest low-level moisture advection anticipated as well. This will likely result in a narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, particularly with southern extent, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Additionally, there is a chance for some of the storms on the southern edge of the warm-air advection shield to trend towards becoming surface based during the evening as the surface dewpoints climb into the low 70s. Southeasterly surface winds and interaction with the warm front could support storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. ...Upper Michigan into the Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through Upper MI and the Upper Midwest. Temperatures across the region will likely climb into the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, with dewpoints likely mixing into the low 50s/upper 40s. Even with this limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Weak vertical shear and the progressive nature of the front should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character with a limited severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/11/2024 Read more