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WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FNB TO 25 SW SLB TO 10 SSE FSD. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-137-141-143-145-155-165-167-212040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON MONTGOMERY O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY SIOUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FNB TO 25 SW SLB TO 10 SSE FSD. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-137-141-143-145-155-165-167-212040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON MONTGOMERY O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY SIOUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FNB TO 25 SW SLB TO 10 SSE FSD. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-137-141-143-145-155-165-167-212040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON MONTGOMERY O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY SIOUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FNB TO 25 SW SLB TO 10 SSE FSD. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-137-141-143-145-155-165-167-212040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON MONTGOMERY O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY SIOUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FNB TO 25 SW SLB TO 10 SSE FSD. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-137-141-143-145-155-165-167-212040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON MONTGOMERY O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY SIOUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FNB TO 25 SW SLB TO 10 SSE FSD. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-137-141-143-145-155-165-167-212040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON MONTGOMERY O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY SIOUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 276 TORNADO IA MO NE SD 211610Z - 212200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 276 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Iowa Northwest Missouri Eastern Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 1110 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...The atmosphere is expected to rapidly become favorable for severe storm development, including the potential for tornadoes, through early/mid-afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Spencer IA to 25 miles west of Falls City NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 275... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0871 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN...FAR SOUTHWEST WI...FAR NORTHWEST IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0871 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Central/Eastern IA...South-Central/Southeast MN...Far Southwest WI...Far Northwest IL Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 211732Z - 211930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Environmental conditions are expected to becoming increasingly supportive of a significant severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail up to 3" inches, strong gusts to 75 mph, and long-track tornadoes. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed around 18-19Z, and a PDS designation is being considered. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over southeast NE, with an outflow-modified warm front extending east-northeast across southern IA through the IA/IL/WI border vicinity. This warm front is expected to rapidly move northward in response to strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, with upper 60s dewpoints likely in place across much of IA and mid 60s possibly reaching southern MN. As this occurs, steep mid-level lapse rates will also advect into the region, resulting strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg) by the early afternoon. Wind fields are expected to strengthen during this time frame as well, result in in very long hodographs and fast storm motion. Bunkers right motion for much of the region will be around 50 kt by the early afternoon. The result will be an environment very supportive of significant severe thunderstorms. An initially discrete mode is anticipated, with the fast storm motions allowing storms to stay ahead of the cold front impinging on the region from the west. Any discrete storms will likely obtain supercellular characteristics quickly, with very large hail up to 3" inches, strong gusts to 75 mph, and tornadoes all possible. This includes the possibility of long-lived, long-track supercells capable of strong tornadoes and intense wind damage. Storm interactions with the warm front, as well as the presence of the deepening surface low, suggest the significant severe potential will likely extend into south-central/southeast MI and southwest MN, despite being displaced just north of the better mid-level flow and low-level moisture. Some upscale growth is anticipated as storms continue eastward, with the resulting convective line capable of significant wind gusts around 75 mph. Given the continued strengthening of the low-level flow anticipated, some embedded QLCS circulations are likely as well. All of these factors suggests a significant severe weather event is probable, and a Tornado Watch will likely be needed around 18-19Z. A PDS designation is being considered for this watch. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 40969085 40619167 40579233 40589388 40649446 40959493 41799502 43169492 44119422 44189139 43209038 41869013 40969085 Read more

MD 0872 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0872 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Portions of North Texas into southeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211745Z - 211915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Elevated storms will have some potential to intensify and produce large hail. Uncertainty in these storms being maintained make watch issuance fairly uncertain. Convective trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Elevated storms have developed in North Texas. These storms are not captured by any CAMs. Based on the 12Z OUN/DFW soundings, this activity is most likely rooted somewhere between 800-700 mb--driven by very modest influence from the approaching shortwave trough in the southern High Plains as well as weak 850 mb warm advection. The primary uncertainty is how long this activity will last as the low-level jet is expected to weaken into the afternoon. Should these storms intensify, the very steep lapse rates, strong elevated buoyancy, and effective shear of 55-60 kts will support supercell structures capable of large hail (1-2 inches). Boundary-layer destabilization still appears it will another few hours. With this activity moving quickly northeast, it is quite uncertain if storms could root near/at the surface. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32759772 32819785 32999788 33549772 34069762 34479735 34679706 35079581 35079495 34749481 34069527 33439652 32759748 32759772 Read more

MD 0870 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ADIRONDACKS INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0870 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Adirondacks into Parts of northern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211708Z - 211915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail may occur this afternoon. Clustering of storms may lead to locally greater wind damage potential. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Morning observed soundings from CAR/GYX showed mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. With an approaching MCV/shortwave from Great Lakes region convection last evening, some increase in storm coverage is expected to occur this afternoon. Effective shear will only be modest (25-30 kts), but a few more organized storms/clusters appear possible. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be the primary risks with this activity. Should storms cluster, locally greater potential for damaging winds would exist especially where low-level lapse rates have steepened. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43917528 44287511 44797443 45157281 45177194 45757081 46597008 46466919 45706922 44267036 43497080 42917205 42407362 42457370 42437458 42697513 43057539 43917528 Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W FNB TO 25 NNW TQE TO 5 N YKN. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-071-085-093-119-129-133-137-141-143-145-149- 155-165-167-193-211940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON FREMONT HARRISON IDA LYON MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PAGE PLYMOUTH POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY SIOUX WOODBURY MOC005-211940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON NEC025-043-055-127-147-153-177-211940- Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more