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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Wednesday from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet moves eastward across the far northern states. At the surface, A cold front will advance southeastward through the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures and destabilization will likely result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region during the late afternoon and early evening, as low-level flow increases. The exit region of the approaching mid-level jet will also increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear, making conditions favorable for organized storms. By late afternoon, the strongest instability is forecast to be from eastern South Dakota into central Minnesota, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 00Z/Thursday have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Some soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates could approach 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of cells. A wind-damage threat will also become likely as the storms gradually grow upscale. Some models suggest that a severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a cluster remains intact and moves eastward into the western Great Lakes. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Wednesday from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet moves eastward across the far northern states. At the surface, A cold front will advance southeastward through the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures and destabilization will likely result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region during the late afternoon and early evening, as low-level flow increases. The exit region of the approaching mid-level jet will also increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear, making conditions favorable for organized storms. By late afternoon, the strongest instability is forecast to be from eastern South Dakota into central Minnesota, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 00Z/Thursday have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Some soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates could approach 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of cells. A wind-damage threat will also become likely as the storms gradually grow upscale. Some models suggest that a severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a cluster remains intact and moves eastward into the western Great Lakes. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Wednesday from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet moves eastward across the far northern states. At the surface, A cold front will advance southeastward through the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures and destabilization will likely result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region during the late afternoon and early evening, as low-level flow increases. The exit region of the approaching mid-level jet will also increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear, making conditions favorable for organized storms. By late afternoon, the strongest instability is forecast to be from eastern South Dakota into central Minnesota, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 00Z/Thursday have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Some soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates could approach 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of cells. A wind-damage threat will also become likely as the storms gradually grow upscale. Some models suggest that a severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a cluster remains intact and moves eastward into the western Great Lakes. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Wednesday from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet moves eastward across the far northern states. At the surface, A cold front will advance southeastward through the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures and destabilization will likely result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region during the late afternoon and early evening, as low-level flow increases. The exit region of the approaching mid-level jet will also increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear, making conditions favorable for organized storms. By late afternoon, the strongest instability is forecast to be from eastern South Dakota into central Minnesota, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 00Z/Thursday have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Some soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates could approach 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of cells. A wind-damage threat will also become likely as the storms gradually grow upscale. Some models suggest that a severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a cluster remains intact and moves eastward into the western Great Lakes. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Wednesday from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet moves eastward across the far northern states. At the surface, A cold front will advance southeastward through the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures and destabilization will likely result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region during the late afternoon and early evening, as low-level flow increases. The exit region of the approaching mid-level jet will also increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear, making conditions favorable for organized storms. By late afternoon, the strongest instability is forecast to be from eastern South Dakota into central Minnesota, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 00Z/Thursday have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Some soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates could approach 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of cells. A wind-damage threat will also become likely as the storms gradually grow upscale. Some models suggest that a severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a cluster remains intact and moves eastward into the western Great Lakes. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds and the overall fire-weather threat. Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds and the overall fire-weather threat. Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds and the overall fire-weather threat. Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds and the overall fire-weather threat. Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds and the overall fire-weather threat. Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains, central High Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains... A slow-moving shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, upslope easterly flow will be in place across a moist airmass over much of Texas. Model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms could be already going by morning across parts of west-central Texas. As surface temperature warm and instability develops across west and southwest Texas, it appears the storms will develop south and southwestward into the stronger instability. The models are in fairly good agreement concerning instability, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z on Tuesday from Lubbock to Midland have 0-6 km shear around 40 knot owing mostly to speed shear above 700 mb. Low-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that storm mode could remain multicellular in spite of stronger shear aloft. Isolated large hail and a few marginally severe gust will be the primary threats. ...Central High Plains... Mid-level flow is forecast to be anticyclonic and northwesterly on Tuesday across the central Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado. The storms are expected to move east-southeastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will only be in the 20 to 25 knot range in southern and central Colorado, low-level lapse rates will likely be very steep in some areas. This could support a few marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will also possible. The threat should be concentrated near peak heating. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a narrow corridor of instability is expected from northeast Iowa into western Wisconsin, where MLCAPE could peak around 1000 J/kg. In addition, forecast soundings in the late afternoon from northwest Iowa into southeast Minnesota have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This could be enough for an isolated wind-damage and hail threat, especially with storms that rotate. However, lapse rates are not forecast to be steep. Cells that develop in areas with insufficient surface heating could remain unorganized. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains, central High Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains... A slow-moving shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, upslope easterly flow will be in place across a moist airmass over much of Texas. Model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms could be already going by morning across parts of west-central Texas. As surface temperature warm and instability develops across west and southwest Texas, it appears the storms will develop south and southwestward into the stronger instability. The models are in fairly good agreement concerning instability, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z on Tuesday from Lubbock to Midland have 0-6 km shear around 40 knot owing mostly to speed shear above 700 mb. Low-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that storm mode could remain multicellular in spite of stronger shear aloft. Isolated large hail and a few marginally severe gust will be the primary threats. ...Central High Plains... Mid-level flow is forecast to be anticyclonic and northwesterly on Tuesday across the central Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado. The storms are expected to move east-southeastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will only be in the 20 to 25 knot range in southern and central Colorado, low-level lapse rates will likely be very steep in some areas. This could support a few marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will also possible. The threat should be concentrated near peak heating. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a narrow corridor of instability is expected from northeast Iowa into western Wisconsin, where MLCAPE could peak around 1000 J/kg. In addition, forecast soundings in the late afternoon from northwest Iowa into southeast Minnesota have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This could be enough for an isolated wind-damage and hail threat, especially with storms that rotate. However, lapse rates are not forecast to be steep. Cells that develop in areas with insufficient surface heating could remain unorganized. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains, central High Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains... A slow-moving shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, upslope easterly flow will be in place across a moist airmass over much of Texas. Model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms could be already going by morning across parts of west-central Texas. As surface temperature warm and instability develops across west and southwest Texas, it appears the storms will develop south and southwestward into the stronger instability. The models are in fairly good agreement concerning instability, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z on Tuesday from Lubbock to Midland have 0-6 km shear around 40 knot owing mostly to speed shear above 700 mb. Low-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that storm mode could remain multicellular in spite of stronger shear aloft. Isolated large hail and a few marginally severe gust will be the primary threats. ...Central High Plains... Mid-level flow is forecast to be anticyclonic and northwesterly on Tuesday across the central Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado. The storms are expected to move east-southeastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will only be in the 20 to 25 knot range in southern and central Colorado, low-level lapse rates will likely be very steep in some areas. This could support a few marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will also possible. The threat should be concentrated near peak heating. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a narrow corridor of instability is expected from northeast Iowa into western Wisconsin, where MLCAPE could peak around 1000 J/kg. In addition, forecast soundings in the late afternoon from northwest Iowa into southeast Minnesota have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This could be enough for an isolated wind-damage and hail threat, especially with storms that rotate. However, lapse rates are not forecast to be steep. Cells that develop in areas with insufficient surface heating could remain unorganized. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains, central High Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains... A slow-moving shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, upslope easterly flow will be in place across a moist airmass over much of Texas. Model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms could be already going by morning across parts of west-central Texas. As surface temperature warm and instability develops across west and southwest Texas, it appears the storms will develop south and southwestward into the stronger instability. The models are in fairly good agreement concerning instability, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z on Tuesday from Lubbock to Midland have 0-6 km shear around 40 knot owing mostly to speed shear above 700 mb. Low-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that storm mode could remain multicellular in spite of stronger shear aloft. Isolated large hail and a few marginally severe gust will be the primary threats. ...Central High Plains... Mid-level flow is forecast to be anticyclonic and northwesterly on Tuesday across the central Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado. The storms are expected to move east-southeastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will only be in the 20 to 25 knot range in southern and central Colorado, low-level lapse rates will likely be very steep in some areas. This could support a few marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will also possible. The threat should be concentrated near peak heating. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a narrow corridor of instability is expected from northeast Iowa into western Wisconsin, where MLCAPE could peak around 1000 J/kg. In addition, forecast soundings in the late afternoon from northwest Iowa into southeast Minnesota have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This could be enough for an isolated wind-damage and hail threat, especially with storms that rotate. However, lapse rates are not forecast to be steep. Cells that develop in areas with insufficient surface heating could remain unorganized. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains, central High Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains... A slow-moving shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, upslope easterly flow will be in place across a moist airmass over much of Texas. Model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms could be already going by morning across parts of west-central Texas. As surface temperature warm and instability develops across west and southwest Texas, it appears the storms will develop south and southwestward into the stronger instability. The models are in fairly good agreement concerning instability, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z on Tuesday from Lubbock to Midland have 0-6 km shear around 40 knot owing mostly to speed shear above 700 mb. Low-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that storm mode could remain multicellular in spite of stronger shear aloft. Isolated large hail and a few marginally severe gust will be the primary threats. ...Central High Plains... Mid-level flow is forecast to be anticyclonic and northwesterly on Tuesday across the central Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado. The storms are expected to move east-southeastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will only be in the 20 to 25 knot range in southern and central Colorado, low-level lapse rates will likely be very steep in some areas. This could support a few marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will also possible. The threat should be concentrated near peak heating. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a narrow corridor of instability is expected from northeast Iowa into western Wisconsin, where MLCAPE could peak around 1000 J/kg. In addition, forecast soundings in the late afternoon from northwest Iowa into southeast Minnesota have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This could be enough for an isolated wind-damage and hail threat, especially with storms that rotate. However, lapse rates are not forecast to be steep. Cells that develop in areas with insufficient surface heating could remain unorganized. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more