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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO NDFD GRID ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the northern and central Plains on Thursday. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with somewhat more modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Strong to severe storms could develop relatively early in the day from southwest into central MT. This early convection could spread eastward and intensify through the day, with additional development possible farther east into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support supercell potential. Large to very large hail and severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with some severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. If model trends favor the currently more aggressive guidance regarding low-level moisture and destabilization across MT into the western Dakotas, then probabilities may eventually need to be increased for all hazards. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. Isolated to widely scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, both near a diffuse dryline, and also potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a few supercells with a threat of hail and severe gusts. Any supercell that persists from late afternoon into the early evening could also pose some tornado threat, within a regime of increasing low-level flow/shear. Upscale growth into multiple clusters or possibly an MCS will be possible Thursday evening/night, as a low-level jet nocturnally increases. Any such cluster/MCS could spread some severe threat across central and potentially eastern KS/NE. ...Eastern UT/western CO and vicinity... Weak to moderate buoyancy may develop from eastern UT into western CO during the afternoon, within a relatively moist environment. The southern fringe of strong westerly flow aloft will spread across the region, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for at least modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with the strongest storms within this regime. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of deep-layer shear across the region, but at least isolated damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

MD 1420 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1420 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska...northeastern Kansas...southwestern Iowa...and northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 260413Z - 260515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe storms over portions of Nebraska and southern Iowa should expand southeastward and increase in coverage over the next few hours. New WW -- extending into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, will be needed shortly. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows clusters of strong/severe storms from north-central Nebraska to southwestern Iowa, moving steadily southeastward. With a moderately unstable airmass (3000 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE per RAP-based objective analysis) ahead of the convection into Kansas/Missouri, and a moderate southwesterly low-level jet observed, continued southeasterly advance of the convection is expected. With this area beneath the leading/expanding edge of stronger mid-level northwesterly flow, storms should organize/grow upscale with time, propagating southward with attendant risks for large hail and damaging winds. The anticipated/expanding risk will warrant new WW issuance shortly. ..Goss/Gleason.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38559430 38839636 39669721 41009719 41499708 40849273 39109251 38729296 38559430 Read more