SPC Jun 28, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts, including some 75+ mph are possible. ...Northern and central Plains... An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations. Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight. Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though confidence in convective evolution is low. ...Southern Plains... A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could support some intensification and additional storm development over southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust or sporadic hail for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-029-037-043-047-049-051-055-057-059-061-065-083-085-101- 103-280140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH EMMONS GRANT KIDDER LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER SHERIDAN SIOUX WARD WELLS SDC017-021-031-041-045-049-059-065-069-075-085-089-107-117-119- 129-280140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE JONES LYMAN MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-029-037-043-047-049-051-055-057-059-061-065-083-085-101- 103-280140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH EMMONS GRANT KIDDER LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER SHERIDAN SIOUX WARD WELLS SDC017-021-031-041-045-049-059-065-069-075-085-089-107-117-119- 129-280140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE JONES LYMAN MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-033-047-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101-119-129- 135-145-165-171-175-187-189-195-280140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE RUSH SCOTT SEWARD STANTON STEVENS TREGO OKC007-025-059-139-280140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER CIMARRON HARPER TEXAS TXC111-195-295-357-421-280140- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-033-047-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101-119-129- 135-145-165-171-175-187-189-195-280140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE RUSH SCOTT SEWARD STANTON STEVENS TREGO OKC007-025-059-139-280140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER CIMARRON HARPER TEXAS TXC111-195-295-357-421-280140- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-033-047-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101-119-129- 135-145-165-171-175-187-189-195-280140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE RUSH SCOTT SEWARD STANTON STEVENS TREGO OKC007-025-059-139-280140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER CIMARRON HARPER TEXAS TXC111-195-295-357-421-280140- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-033-047-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101-119-129- 135-145-165-171-175-187-189-195-280140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE RUSH SCOTT SEWARD STANTON STEVENS TREGO OKC007-025-059-139-280140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER CIMARRON HARPER TEXAS TXC111-195-295-357-421-280140- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-033-047-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101-119-129- 135-145-165-171-175-187-189-195-280140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE RUSH SCOTT SEWARD STANTON STEVENS TREGO OKC007-025-059-139-280140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER CIMARRON HARPER TEXAS TXC111-195-295-357-421-280140- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-033-047-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101-119-129- 135-145-165-171-175-187-189-195-280140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE RUSH SCOTT SEWARD STANTON STEVENS TREGO OKC007-025-059-139-280140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER CIMARRON HARPER TEXAS TXC111-195-295-357-421-280140- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477

1 year 2 months ago
WW 477 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 272215Z - 280500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 477 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West and Southwest Kansas Far Northwest Oklahoma and the Panhandle Northern Texas Panhandle * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 515 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop this evening over western parts of the Watch area, and move east into a more moist airmass as a low-level jet intensifies. The stronger storms will be capable of a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) and perhaps large hail with the stronger thunderstorm cores. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Garden City KS to 40 miles south of Guymon OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 473...WW 474...WW 475...WW 476... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Smith Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 476 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW 2WX TO 40 NNE 2WX TO 25 WNW DIK TO 25 E SDY TO 30 WNW ISN. ..KARSTENS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-007-025-041-053-089-105-280140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS DUNN HETTINGER MCKENZIE STARK WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 475 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-075-095-115-125-280140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-280140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-013-029-031-033-045-049-057-063-069-075-085-087-091-101- 111-113-117-123-135-145-161-171-280140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 475 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-075-095-115-125-280140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-280140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-013-029-031-033-045-049-057-063-069-075-085-087-091-101- 111-113-117-123-135-145-161-171-280140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 475 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-075-095-115-125-280140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-280140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-013-029-031-033-045-049-057-063-069-075-085-087-091-101- 111-113-117-123-135-145-161-171-280140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 475 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-075-095-115-125-280140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-280140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-013-029-031-033-045-049-057-063-069-075-085-087-091-101- 111-113-117-123-135-145-161-171-280140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 475 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-075-095-115-125-280140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-280140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-013-029-031-033-045-049-057-063-069-075-085-087-091-101- 111-113-117-123-135-145-161-171-280140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 475 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-075-095-115-125-280140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-280140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-013-029-031-033-045-049-057-063-069-075-085-087-091-101- 111-113-117-123-135-145-161-171-280140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475

1 year 2 months ago
WW 475 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE SD WY 272040Z - 280300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 475 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to track across the watch area this afternoon and evening. A few supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Buffalo SD to 45 miles south of Goodland KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 473...WW 474... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

SPC MD 1453

1 year 2 months ago
MD 1453 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1453 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0621 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota into central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 272321Z - 280045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of central ND into central SD as strong to potentially severe storms approach from the west. Severe gusts are the main threat, though some instances of severe hail and perhaps a tornado also may occur. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will be needed within the hour. DISCUSSION...Multicells and discrete supercells are moving across western SD/ND and are approaching the eastern bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 and Tornado Watch 476. Meanwhile, a mature MCS continues to rapidly propagate eastward into ND from MT, and is poised to reach central ND in the next few hours. As these storms merge and approach central SD/ND, severe gusts will become likely as the storms move into a strongly unstable airmass (characterized by up to 3500 J/kg MLCAPE per 23Z mesoanalysis). Furthermore, the strengthening of the southerly LLJ (to 40+ kts), beneath increasing westerly 500 mb flow with the ejection of a mid-level vort max, will support effective bulk shear values well over 50 kts. Regional VADs and short-term RUC forecasts show enlarged and curved low-level hodographs with modest mid-level elongation. As such, any storms that remain surface based as they move into the central Dakotas should be accompanied by a severe threat. The eastward moving MCS should produce at least some severe wind, which is expected to be the predominant severe hazard. However, embedded mesovortices may be accompanied by an isolated tornado threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued within the hour to address the impending severe threat. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45990189 48440204 48960169 48660054 47669954 46719939 45259904 44219928 43919977 43950084 45990189 Read more

SPC MD 1452

1 year 2 months ago
MD 1452 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 476... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1452 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of southwestern North Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 476... Valid 272303Z - 280030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 476 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 476. A few tornadoes remain possible with discrete supercells, but the severe wind threat should increase as an MCS overtakes the supercells in the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Two discrete supercells continue across southwestern ND as a well-developed MCS (with a history of severe gusts) approaches from southeastern MT. 22Z mesoanalysis shows modestly curved/elongated hodographs preceding the supercells, along with 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH, supporting tornado potential. With time, the fast approaching MCS from the west will merge with the supercells. This may augment the severe wind threat, with 75-90 mph gusts possible. QLCS tornadoes will still be a concern as well. ..Squitieri.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 46530361 46820384 47190384 47490370 47420305 46890267 46530303 46530361 Read more