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MD 1491 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...EASTERN TENNESSEE...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1491 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...eastern Kentucky...eastern Tennessee...southern West Virginia...far western Virginia...and western North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301816Z - 302015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal threat for strong to severe gusts will remain possible with thunderstorm activity through the afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to increase in coverage across portions of eastern Kentucky into western Virginia this afternoon. The air mass in this region has warmed and become more unstable through the morning, with around 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE in recent surface objective analysis. This is also apparent in radar and satellite trends for in echo tops and cloud top cooling with ongoing thunderstorm activity. Upper-level flow remains modest across the region, waning further with south and eastward extent into far eastern Tennessee/Carolinas. As such, deep layer shear for organization remains weak, though around 30-35 kts of effective shear is analyzed across eastern Kentucky. As such, instances of severe wind should remain fairly isolated and localized. A watch is unlikely to be needed but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 37318629 37688591 37848554 37768414 37878235 37668154 36718144 35558187 35398221 35208335 35138488 37318629 Read more

MD 1492 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489... FOR NORTHERN NJ INTO WESTERN LONG ISLAND/NYC METRO VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...northern NJ into western Long Island/NYC Metro vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489... Valid 301826Z - 302000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489 continues. SUMMARY...An intense bowing segment will move across northern New Jersey into western Long Island and the New York City metro vicinity over the next 1-2 hours. Damaging wind gusts are expected with these storms. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has rapidly intensified and developed into a bowing segment near the northern NJ/PA state line this afternoon. This activity will spread east/southeast over the next 1-2 hours into the axis of strong instability oriented over the northern Mid-Atlantic region. These storms have already produced gusts to near 50 kt and areas of wind damage. This activity is likely to continue producing severe/damaging wind gusts as storms spread across northern NJ and the New York City metro vicinity. ..Leitman.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 41297509 41277469 41127395 41047352 40937324 40827318 40507322 40357399 40477485 40667536 40857547 41077546 41297509 Read more

WW 0490 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW MPV TO 10 NE BML TO 75 NNE BML. ..LEITMAN..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-302040- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN AROOSTOOK CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN HANCOCK KENNEBEC KNOX LINCOLN OXFORD PENOBSCOT PISCATAQUIS SAGADAHOC SOMERSET WALDO WASHINGTON YORK NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-302040- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN Read more

WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W HGR TO 30 NW CXY TO 30 WNW MSV TO 40 NNE PSF. ..LEITMAN..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-302040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM DEC003-302040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-302040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...20z Update... Minor changes have been made to adjust the Elevated area to better match greater fire-weather potential across portions of the northern and eastern Great Basin. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over a broad area within a post-frontal flow regime across NV. At least a few hours of 10-20% RH are likely to overlap with northwesterly gusts of 15-20 mph. The most likely corridors for sustained elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions will be across portions of southern ID and eastern NV into southwest UT. Localized fire-weather conditions are also possible in northern CA. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more