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WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W PUB TO 45 NE LAA TO 40 SSE GLD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..THORNTON..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-055-071-089-099-101-080340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT HUERFANO LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO KSC071-203-080340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY WICHITA NMC007-021-033-059-080340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 511 SEVERE TSTM CO NM 072050Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 511 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Northeast New Mexico * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop and increase through late afternoon and early evening, initially including areas near/east of the I-25 corridor across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. These storms will be capable of large hail, and severe-wind potential may also increase as storms cluster into this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Limon CO to 60 miles south southeast of Raton NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1552 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512... FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1552 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Areas affected...Southern Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512... Valid 080042Z - 080245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512 continues. SUMMARY...Gusty winds and hail remain possible with storms as they propagate southeast this evening. DISCUSSION...Northwesterly mid-level flow is gradually increasing across the southern High Plains this evening as the Plains upper trough shifts east. Surface pressures are rising across the TX Panhandle and the primary zone of low-level confluence now stretches from central OK to south of LBB. A concentrated corridor of scattered strong/severe thunderstorms has evolved along this zone, and this convection should continue to propagate south-southeast into a modestly unstable air mass characterized by MLCAPE values on the order of 1500 J/kg. Wind gusts in excess of 60kt have been noted with the activity over the TX South Plains, and this should be the primary concern as the evening progresses; although, some marginally severe hail is also possible. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 33980253 35409714 34229716 32830252 33980253 Read more

MD 1553 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511... FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...FAR WESTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1553 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Areas affected...southeast Colorado...far western Kansas...northeastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511... Valid 080107Z - 080230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW511. Damaging wind threat will increase through the evening. DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms continue across southeastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico, with trends over the last hour favoring clustering of supercells. Evolution through the evening is still expected to favor attempts at upscale growth along strengthening cold pools and eventual southeastward propagating MCS moving out of southeastern Colorado. This regime would support an increase in risk for damaging wind over the next couple of hours, along with a continued threat for occasional large hail. Local spatial expansion of WW511 may be needed to cover this threat across southeastern Colorado and potentially into far western Kansas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37410495 37910513 38490527 38870522 38960482 39080404 39090344 39140266 39160208 39070169 38650136 38490136 37570216 37250247 36770314 36530358 36240450 36360488 37410495 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible from the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible this evening across parts of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and in portions of the southern Plains. ...Eastern Colorado/Northeastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the central High Plains. At the surface, upslope flow is in place across much of eastern Colorado, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. From near the Palmer Divide southward into northeastern New Mexico, MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis of instability in the lee of the higher terrain. Wind shear within this corridor is sampled by the Pueblo WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km near 55 knots, owing to an abrupt east-to-west shift in the winds near 2 km AGL. This will help storms to remain organized, supporting a continued severe threat for much of the evening. The more intense cells should be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale upper-level trough is located across the southern and central Plains, according to water vapor imagery. At the surface, a cold front is situated from west Texas east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma, with thunderstorms ongoing along and near the boundary. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP near the front, with MLCAPE estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The Frederick, Oklahoma WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with some veering of the winds with height in the lowest 3 Km AGL. This should continue to be favorable for a severe threat this evening, as cells generally move southeastward across the southern Plains. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast/Southwest Louisiana... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland across the middle Texas Coast late tonight. Ahead of Beryl's center, bands of moderate to heavy rain will overspread the middle to upper Texas Coast. Strong low-level shear associated with Beryl will likely support a tornado threat, mainly if semi-discrete rotating cells can form within the more well-developed rainbands. The greatest tornado threat is expected late tonight over the middle to upper Texas Coast as the northeastern quadrant of Beryl moves inland. ..Broyles.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible from the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible this evening across parts of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and in portions of the southern Plains. ...Eastern Colorado/Northeastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the central High Plains. At the surface, upslope flow is in place across much of eastern Colorado, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. From near the Palmer Divide southward into northeastern New Mexico, MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis of instability in the lee of the higher terrain. Wind shear within this corridor is sampled by the Pueblo WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km near 55 knots, owing to an abrupt east-to-west shift in the winds near 2 km AGL. This will help storms to remain organized, supporting a continued severe threat for much of the evening. The more intense cells should be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale upper-level trough is located across the southern and central Plains, according to water vapor imagery. At the surface, a cold front is situated from west Texas east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma, with thunderstorms ongoing along and near the boundary. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP near the front, with MLCAPE estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The Frederick, Oklahoma WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with some veering of the winds with height in the lowest 3 Km AGL. This should continue to be favorable for a severe threat this evening, as cells generally move southeastward across the southern Plains. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast/Southwest Louisiana... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland across the middle Texas Coast late tonight. Ahead of Beryl's center, bands of moderate to heavy rain will overspread the middle to upper Texas Coast. Strong low-level shear associated with Beryl will likely support a tornado threat, mainly if semi-discrete rotating cells can form within the more well-developed rainbands. The greatest tornado threat is expected late tonight over the middle to upper Texas Coast as the northeastern quadrant of Beryl moves inland. ..Broyles.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible from the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible this evening across parts of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and in portions of the southern Plains. ...Eastern Colorado/Northeastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the central High Plains. At the surface, upslope flow is in place across much of eastern Colorado, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. From near the Palmer Divide southward into northeastern New Mexico, MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis of instability in the lee of the higher terrain. Wind shear within this corridor is sampled by the Pueblo WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km near 55 knots, owing to an abrupt east-to-west shift in the winds near 2 km AGL. This will help storms to remain organized, supporting a continued severe threat for much of the evening. The more intense cells should be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale upper-level trough is located across the southern and central Plains, according to water vapor imagery. At the surface, a cold front is situated from west Texas east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma, with thunderstorms ongoing along and near the boundary. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP near the front, with MLCAPE estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The Frederick, Oklahoma WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with some veering of the winds with height in the lowest 3 Km AGL. This should continue to be favorable for a severe threat this evening, as cells generally move southeastward across the southern Plains. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast/Southwest Louisiana... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland across the middle Texas Coast late tonight. Ahead of Beryl's center, bands of moderate to heavy rain will overspread the middle to upper Texas Coast. Strong low-level shear associated with Beryl will likely support a tornado threat, mainly if semi-discrete rotating cells can form within the more well-developed rainbands. The greatest tornado threat is expected late tonight over the middle to upper Texas Coast as the northeastern quadrant of Beryl moves inland. ..Broyles.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible from the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible this evening across parts of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and in portions of the southern Plains. ...Eastern Colorado/Northeastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the central High Plains. At the surface, upslope flow is in place across much of eastern Colorado, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. From near the Palmer Divide southward into northeastern New Mexico, MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis of instability in the lee of the higher terrain. Wind shear within this corridor is sampled by the Pueblo WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km near 55 knots, owing to an abrupt east-to-west shift in the winds near 2 km AGL. This will help storms to remain organized, supporting a continued severe threat for much of the evening. The more intense cells should be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale upper-level trough is located across the southern and central Plains, according to water vapor imagery. At the surface, a cold front is situated from west Texas east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma, with thunderstorms ongoing along and near the boundary. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP near the front, with MLCAPE estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The Frederick, Oklahoma WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with some veering of the winds with height in the lowest 3 Km AGL. This should continue to be favorable for a severe threat this evening, as cells generally move southeastward across the southern Plains. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast/Southwest Louisiana... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland across the middle Texas Coast late tonight. Ahead of Beryl's center, bands of moderate to heavy rain will overspread the middle to upper Texas Coast. Strong low-level shear associated with Beryl will likely support a tornado threat, mainly if semi-discrete rotating cells can form within the more well-developed rainbands. The greatest tornado threat is expected late tonight over the middle to upper Texas Coast as the northeastern quadrant of Beryl moves inland. ..Broyles.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible from the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible this evening across parts of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and in portions of the southern Plains. ...Eastern Colorado/Northeastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the central High Plains. At the surface, upslope flow is in place across much of eastern Colorado, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. From near the Palmer Divide southward into northeastern New Mexico, MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis of instability in the lee of the higher terrain. Wind shear within this corridor is sampled by the Pueblo WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km near 55 knots, owing to an abrupt east-to-west shift in the winds near 2 km AGL. This will help storms to remain organized, supporting a continued severe threat for much of the evening. The more intense cells should be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale upper-level trough is located across the southern and central Plains, according to water vapor imagery. At the surface, a cold front is situated from west Texas east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma, with thunderstorms ongoing along and near the boundary. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP near the front, with MLCAPE estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The Frederick, Oklahoma WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with some veering of the winds with height in the lowest 3 Km AGL. This should continue to be favorable for a severe threat this evening, as cells generally move southeastward across the southern Plains. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast/Southwest Louisiana... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland across the middle Texas Coast late tonight. Ahead of Beryl's center, bands of moderate to heavy rain will overspread the middle to upper Texas Coast. Strong low-level shear associated with Beryl will likely support a tornado threat, mainly if semi-discrete rotating cells can form within the more well-developed rainbands. The greatest tornado threat is expected late tonight over the middle to upper Texas Coast as the northeastern quadrant of Beryl moves inland. ..Broyles.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible from the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible this evening across parts of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and in portions of the southern Plains. ...Eastern Colorado/Northeastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the central High Plains. At the surface, upslope flow is in place across much of eastern Colorado, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. From near the Palmer Divide southward into northeastern New Mexico, MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis of instability in the lee of the higher terrain. Wind shear within this corridor is sampled by the Pueblo WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km near 55 knots, owing to an abrupt east-to-west shift in the winds near 2 km AGL. This will help storms to remain organized, supporting a continued severe threat for much of the evening. The more intense cells should be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale upper-level trough is located across the southern and central Plains, according to water vapor imagery. At the surface, a cold front is situated from west Texas east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma, with thunderstorms ongoing along and near the boundary. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP near the front, with MLCAPE estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The Frederick, Oklahoma WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with some veering of the winds with height in the lowest 3 Km AGL. This should continue to be favorable for a severe threat this evening, as cells generally move southeastward across the southern Plains. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast/Southwest Louisiana... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland across the middle Texas Coast late tonight. Ahead of Beryl's center, bands of moderate to heavy rain will overspread the middle to upper Texas Coast. Strong low-level shear associated with Beryl will likely support a tornado threat, mainly if semi-discrete rotating cells can form within the more well-developed rainbands. The greatest tornado threat is expected late tonight over the middle to upper Texas Coast as the northeastern quadrant of Beryl moves inland. ..Broyles.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible from the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible this evening across parts of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and in portions of the southern Plains. ...Eastern Colorado/Northeastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the central High Plains. At the surface, upslope flow is in place across much of eastern Colorado, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. From near the Palmer Divide southward into northeastern New Mexico, MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis of instability in the lee of the higher terrain. Wind shear within this corridor is sampled by the Pueblo WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km near 55 knots, owing to an abrupt east-to-west shift in the winds near 2 km AGL. This will help storms to remain organized, supporting a continued severe threat for much of the evening. The more intense cells should be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale upper-level trough is located across the southern and central Plains, according to water vapor imagery. At the surface, a cold front is situated from west Texas east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma, with thunderstorms ongoing along and near the boundary. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP near the front, with MLCAPE estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The Frederick, Oklahoma WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with some veering of the winds with height in the lowest 3 Km AGL. This should continue to be favorable for a severe threat this evening, as cells generally move southeastward across the southern Plains. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast/Southwest Louisiana... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland across the middle Texas Coast late tonight. Ahead of Beryl's center, bands of moderate to heavy rain will overspread the middle to upper Texas Coast. Strong low-level shear associated with Beryl will likely support a tornado threat, mainly if semi-discrete rotating cells can form within the more well-developed rainbands. The greatest tornado threat is expected late tonight over the middle to upper Texas Coast as the northeastern quadrant of Beryl moves inland. ..Broyles.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible from the middle to upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible this evening across parts of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and in portions of the southern Plains. ...Eastern Colorado/Northeastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the central High Plains. At the surface, upslope flow is in place across much of eastern Colorado, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. From near the Palmer Divide southward into northeastern New Mexico, MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis of instability in the lee of the higher terrain. Wind shear within this corridor is sampled by the Pueblo WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km near 55 knots, owing to an abrupt east-to-west shift in the winds near 2 km AGL. This will help storms to remain organized, supporting a continued severe threat for much of the evening. The more intense cells should be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale upper-level trough is located across the southern and central Plains, according to water vapor imagery. At the surface, a cold front is situated from west Texas east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma, with thunderstorms ongoing along and near the boundary. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP near the front, with MLCAPE estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The Frederick, Oklahoma WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with some veering of the winds with height in the lowest 3 Km AGL. This should continue to be favorable for a severe threat this evening, as cells generally move southeastward across the southern Plains. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast/Southwest Louisiana... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move inland across the middle Texas Coast late tonight. Ahead of Beryl's center, bands of moderate to heavy rain will overspread the middle to upper Texas Coast. Strong low-level shear associated with Beryl will likely support a tornado threat, mainly if semi-discrete rotating cells can form within the more well-developed rainbands. The greatest tornado threat is expected late tonight over the middle to upper Texas Coast as the northeastern quadrant of Beryl moves inland. ..Broyles.. 07/08/2024 Read more

WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW COS TO 10 SW GLD. ..THORNTON..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-025-041-055-061-071-073-089-101-080140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PUEBLO KSC071-199-203-080140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY WALLACE WICHITA NMC007-021-033-059-080140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX HARDING MORA Read more

WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW COS TO 10 SW GLD. ..THORNTON..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-025-041-055-061-071-073-089-101-080140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PUEBLO KSC071-199-203-080140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY WALLACE WICHITA NMC007-021-033-059-080140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX HARDING MORA Read more

WW 0512 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0512 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0512 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0512 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0512 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0512 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0512 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0512 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 512 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 072220Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 512 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 520 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a boundary from west Texas into central Oklahoma. These storms will track southeastward through the afternoon and evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles east southeast of Chickasha OK to 45 miles west southwest of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jul 7 23:37:12 UTC 2024.