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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jul 31 14:04:13 UTC 2024.

The low level of Cheney Lake has made it difficult to launch boats and get them out of the lake. The east ramp was the only one able to be used, but will no longer be useable if the water level drops another half to three-quarters of a foot. The water was already too low to remove some of the boats in the marina, so they will have to remain in the water until the lake level rises. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), July 30, 2024

WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIN TO 20 S BMI TO 25 NE BMI. ..LEITMAN..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-009-013-017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039-041-045-049- 051-061-079-083-101-107-115-117-121-125-129-135-137-139-147-149- 159-167-169-171-173-183-311440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND BROWN CALHOUN CASS CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE LOGAN MACON MACOUPIN MARION MASON MENARD MONTGOMERY MORGAN MOULTRIE PIATT PIKE RICHLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT SHELBY VERMILION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE IRK TO 35 ENE UIN. ..LEITMAN..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-311440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS MOC103-111-311440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KNOX LEWIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE IRK TO 35 ENE UIN. ..LEITMAN..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-311440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS MOC103-111-311440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KNOX LEWIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE IRK TO 35 ENE UIN. ..LEITMAN..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-311440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS MOC103-111-311440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KNOX LEWIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE IRK TO 35 ENE UIN. ..LEITMAN..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-311440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS MOC103-111-311440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KNOX LEWIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE IRK TO 35 ENE UIN. ..LEITMAN..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-311440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS MOC103-111-311440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KNOX LEWIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE IRK TO 35 ENE UIN. ..LEITMAN..07/31/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 577 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-311440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS MOC103-111-311440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KNOX LEWIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 577 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO 310845Z - 311400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 577 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Iowa Western and Northwest Illinois Northeast Missouri * Effective this Wednesday morning from 345 AM until 900 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will likely persist and potentially further intensify across southern Iowa into northeast Missouri and west/northwest Illinois this morning, with damaging winds and some hail possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west northwest of Burlington IA to 25 miles east southeast of Burlington IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 576... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Guyer Read more

Crops on a farm near Lowell were watered at least 5 to 6 hours per day amid the drought and heat. Irrigation drives up the cost of growing produce. WTAP (Parkersburg, W.V.), July 30, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Another active severe-weather day is expected from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the southern Appalachians. This includes potential for large hail across parts of the northern/central Plains, aside from a more prevalent risk of damaging winds, some of which could be significantly strong. ...Great Plains/Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys... A relatively prominent summertime mid-level trough is readily apparent across the northern High Plains early this morning, and will reach the Upper Midwest tonight. Ahead of this trough, scattered occasionally strong/locally severe convection has occurred overnight across northern South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota. This convection should further increase into midday/early afternoon, with a more appreciable severe risk evolving across north-central/eastern South Dakota, and eventually into southwest Minnesota by mid/late afternoon. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail will be possible, but storm mergers within a very unstable environment by mid/late afternoon should lead to MCS development and heightened wind potential. Additional potentially intense storm development is expected southwestward near the cold front into Nebraska and Kansas, with large hail and severe-wind gusts expected. One or more organized clusters should regionally evolve by early/mid-evening across the Siouxland and far eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa. Potentially significant wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are plausible given the steep lapse rate environment and reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy. Severe-MCS persistence seems viable tonight across much of Iowa/southern Minnesota, possibly northern Missouri, and Illinois. ...Central Plains/southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. Large to very large hail will be possible with supercells in parts of central Kansas. However, the environment will be less favorable further southwest with more of an isolated/marginal overall severe threat expected across southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... Similar to yesterday, a seasonally strong belt of northwesterly flow aloft will persist today from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Appalachians and coastal Southeast. Much of this will reside atop a moist and very unstable air mass, especially across parts of the lower Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau, where upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by peak heating outside of any MCS-related impacts. This general scenario will likely support several organized severe-producing storms clusters/MCSs through the evening across these regions. Somewhat higher severe probabilities (Enhanced category) may be warranted in subsequent outlooks for parts of these region. For one, an MCS ongoing across central Illinois this morning may potentially persist southeastward within this increasingly unstable environment, possibly impacting areas such as southern Indiana, southern Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Tennessee with a heightened wind damage potential. Aided by differential heating, scattered storms should also increase across the southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon, with some organization into clusters possible given the aforementioned relative strength of winds aloft, with wind damage possible. ...Southern Arizona... An upper low near Baja and ongoing early day storms across parts of northwest Mexico may influence thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moist air mass particularly across southeast Arizona. Some of the storms could produce severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/31/2024 Read more