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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging winds remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Appalachians into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of the northern Great Lakes. ...20Z Update... Some minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risks based on observational trends, but no major changes have been made to the outlook. Scattered damaging winds remain possible through late afternoon and perhaps into early evening from parts of WV into western/central PA and western MD/VA. See MCD 2040 regarding the short-term threat in this area. Also, see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes today while undergoing some amplification. Ahead of this feature, a surface front will move eastward over parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, and southeastward over the OH Valley before eventually stalling. A warm front will lift north through the period across the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial low cloud cover over much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will reduce daytime heating and delay destabilization, especially east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. However, with a moist low-level air mass in place, even modest diurnal heating will result in sufficient destabilization to support some risk for strong/severe storms. The stronger mid-level flow associated with the upper trough is expected to remain generally displaced to the north/west of the surface warm sector. Even so, modestly increasing west-southwesterly winds with height through mid levels should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear across parts of the central Appalachians and upper OH Valley vicinity. This shear will be sufficient for loosely organized multicell clusters to develop or intensify and subsequently spread east-southeastward through this afternoon. Isolated to scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with this convection, although some hail may also occur with the strongest cells. Storms should gradually weaken with eastward extent by this evening across the Mid-Atlantic while encountering a less unstable air mass. Weaker deep-layer shear with southward extent into the lower OH Valley and TN Valley will likely limit overall thunderstorm organization. However, occasional damaging winds may still occur with thunderstorms along/south of the front as low-level lapse rates steepen. ...Northern Great Lakes... Strong west-northwesterly mid-level flow will exist over the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes in association with a shortwave trough embedded within a broader cyclonic flow. While low-level moisture and related instability are both expected to remain limited, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may support the development of low-topped thunderstorms this afternoon. If these thunderstorms can be sustained, then isolated strong to severe winds may occur given the forecast strength of the low to mid-level flow in the presence of steepened low-level lapse rates. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging winds remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Appalachians into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of the northern Great Lakes. ...20Z Update... Some minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risks based on observational trends, but no major changes have been made to the outlook. Scattered damaging winds remain possible through late afternoon and perhaps into early evening from parts of WV into western/central PA and western MD/VA. See MCD 2040 regarding the short-term threat in this area. Also, see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes today while undergoing some amplification. Ahead of this feature, a surface front will move eastward over parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, and southeastward over the OH Valley before eventually stalling. A warm front will lift north through the period across the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial low cloud cover over much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will reduce daytime heating and delay destabilization, especially east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. However, with a moist low-level air mass in place, even modest diurnal heating will result in sufficient destabilization to support some risk for strong/severe storms. The stronger mid-level flow associated with the upper trough is expected to remain generally displaced to the north/west of the surface warm sector. Even so, modestly increasing west-southwesterly winds with height through mid levels should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear across parts of the central Appalachians and upper OH Valley vicinity. This shear will be sufficient for loosely organized multicell clusters to develop or intensify and subsequently spread east-southeastward through this afternoon. Isolated to scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with this convection, although some hail may also occur with the strongest cells. Storms should gradually weaken with eastward extent by this evening across the Mid-Atlantic while encountering a less unstable air mass. Weaker deep-layer shear with southward extent into the lower OH Valley and TN Valley will likely limit overall thunderstorm organization. However, occasional damaging winds may still occur with thunderstorms along/south of the front as low-level lapse rates steepen. ...Northern Great Lakes... Strong west-northwesterly mid-level flow will exist over the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes in association with a shortwave trough embedded within a broader cyclonic flow. While low-level moisture and related instability are both expected to remain limited, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may support the development of low-topped thunderstorms this afternoon. If these thunderstorms can be sustained, then isolated strong to severe winds may occur given the forecast strength of the low to mid-level flow in the presence of steepened low-level lapse rates. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging winds remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Appalachians into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of the northern Great Lakes. ...20Z Update... Some minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risks based on observational trends, but no major changes have been made to the outlook. Scattered damaging winds remain possible through late afternoon and perhaps into early evening from parts of WV into western/central PA and western MD/VA. See MCD 2040 regarding the short-term threat in this area. Also, see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes today while undergoing some amplification. Ahead of this feature, a surface front will move eastward over parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, and southeastward over the OH Valley before eventually stalling. A warm front will lift north through the period across the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial low cloud cover over much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will reduce daytime heating and delay destabilization, especially east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. However, with a moist low-level air mass in place, even modest diurnal heating will result in sufficient destabilization to support some risk for strong/severe storms. The stronger mid-level flow associated with the upper trough is expected to remain generally displaced to the north/west of the surface warm sector. Even so, modestly increasing west-southwesterly winds with height through mid levels should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear across parts of the central Appalachians and upper OH Valley vicinity. This shear will be sufficient for loosely organized multicell clusters to develop or intensify and subsequently spread east-southeastward through this afternoon. Isolated to scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with this convection, although some hail may also occur with the strongest cells. Storms should gradually weaken with eastward extent by this evening across the Mid-Atlantic while encountering a less unstable air mass. Weaker deep-layer shear with southward extent into the lower OH Valley and TN Valley will likely limit overall thunderstorm organization. However, occasional damaging winds may still occur with thunderstorms along/south of the front as low-level lapse rates steepen. ...Northern Great Lakes... Strong west-northwesterly mid-level flow will exist over the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes in association with a shortwave trough embedded within a broader cyclonic flow. While low-level moisture and related instability are both expected to remain limited, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may support the development of low-topped thunderstorms this afternoon. If these thunderstorms can be sustained, then isolated strong to severe winds may occur given the forecast strength of the low to mid-level flow in the presence of steepened low-level lapse rates. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging winds remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Appalachians into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of the northern Great Lakes. ...20Z Update... Some minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risks based on observational trends, but no major changes have been made to the outlook. Scattered damaging winds remain possible through late afternoon and perhaps into early evening from parts of WV into western/central PA and western MD/VA. See MCD 2040 regarding the short-term threat in this area. Also, see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes today while undergoing some amplification. Ahead of this feature, a surface front will move eastward over parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, and southeastward over the OH Valley before eventually stalling. A warm front will lift north through the period across the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial low cloud cover over much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will reduce daytime heating and delay destabilization, especially east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. However, with a moist low-level air mass in place, even modest diurnal heating will result in sufficient destabilization to support some risk for strong/severe storms. The stronger mid-level flow associated with the upper trough is expected to remain generally displaced to the north/west of the surface warm sector. Even so, modestly increasing west-southwesterly winds with height through mid levels should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear across parts of the central Appalachians and upper OH Valley vicinity. This shear will be sufficient for loosely organized multicell clusters to develop or intensify and subsequently spread east-southeastward through this afternoon. Isolated to scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with this convection, although some hail may also occur with the strongest cells. Storms should gradually weaken with eastward extent by this evening across the Mid-Atlantic while encountering a less unstable air mass. Weaker deep-layer shear with southward extent into the lower OH Valley and TN Valley will likely limit overall thunderstorm organization. However, occasional damaging winds may still occur with thunderstorms along/south of the front as low-level lapse rates steepen. ...Northern Great Lakes... Strong west-northwesterly mid-level flow will exist over the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes in association with a shortwave trough embedded within a broader cyclonic flow. While low-level moisture and related instability are both expected to remain limited, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may support the development of low-topped thunderstorms this afternoon. If these thunderstorms can be sustained, then isolated strong to severe winds may occur given the forecast strength of the low to mid-level flow in the presence of steepened low-level lapse rates. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging winds remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Appalachians into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of the northern Great Lakes. ...20Z Update... Some minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risks based on observational trends, but no major changes have been made to the outlook. Scattered damaging winds remain possible through late afternoon and perhaps into early evening from parts of WV into western/central PA and western MD/VA. See MCD 2040 regarding the short-term threat in this area. Also, see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes today while undergoing some amplification. Ahead of this feature, a surface front will move eastward over parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, and southeastward over the OH Valley before eventually stalling. A warm front will lift north through the period across the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial low cloud cover over much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will reduce daytime heating and delay destabilization, especially east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. However, with a moist low-level air mass in place, even modest diurnal heating will result in sufficient destabilization to support some risk for strong/severe storms. The stronger mid-level flow associated with the upper trough is expected to remain generally displaced to the north/west of the surface warm sector. Even so, modestly increasing west-southwesterly winds with height through mid levels should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear across parts of the central Appalachians and upper OH Valley vicinity. This shear will be sufficient for loosely organized multicell clusters to develop or intensify and subsequently spread east-southeastward through this afternoon. Isolated to scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with this convection, although some hail may also occur with the strongest cells. Storms should gradually weaken with eastward extent by this evening across the Mid-Atlantic while encountering a less unstable air mass. Weaker deep-layer shear with southward extent into the lower OH Valley and TN Valley will likely limit overall thunderstorm organization. However, occasional damaging winds may still occur with thunderstorms along/south of the front as low-level lapse rates steepen. ...Northern Great Lakes... Strong west-northwesterly mid-level flow will exist over the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes in association with a shortwave trough embedded within a broader cyclonic flow. While low-level moisture and related instability are both expected to remain limited, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may support the development of low-topped thunderstorms this afternoon. If these thunderstorms can be sustained, then isolated strong to severe winds may occur given the forecast strength of the low to mid-level flow in the presence of steepened low-level lapse rates. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging winds remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Appalachians into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of the northern Great Lakes. ...20Z Update... Some minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risks based on observational trends, but no major changes have been made to the outlook. Scattered damaging winds remain possible through late afternoon and perhaps into early evening from parts of WV into western/central PA and western MD/VA. See MCD 2040 regarding the short-term threat in this area. Also, see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes today while undergoing some amplification. Ahead of this feature, a surface front will move eastward over parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, and southeastward over the OH Valley before eventually stalling. A warm front will lift north through the period across the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial low cloud cover over much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will reduce daytime heating and delay destabilization, especially east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. However, with a moist low-level air mass in place, even modest diurnal heating will result in sufficient destabilization to support some risk for strong/severe storms. The stronger mid-level flow associated with the upper trough is expected to remain generally displaced to the north/west of the surface warm sector. Even so, modestly increasing west-southwesterly winds with height through mid levels should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear across parts of the central Appalachians and upper OH Valley vicinity. This shear will be sufficient for loosely organized multicell clusters to develop or intensify and subsequently spread east-southeastward through this afternoon. Isolated to scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with this convection, although some hail may also occur with the strongest cells. Storms should gradually weaken with eastward extent by this evening across the Mid-Atlantic while encountering a less unstable air mass. Weaker deep-layer shear with southward extent into the lower OH Valley and TN Valley will likely limit overall thunderstorm organization. However, occasional damaging winds may still occur with thunderstorms along/south of the front as low-level lapse rates steepen. ...Northern Great Lakes... Strong west-northwesterly mid-level flow will exist over the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes in association with a shortwave trough embedded within a broader cyclonic flow. While low-level moisture and related instability are both expected to remain limited, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may support the development of low-topped thunderstorms this afternoon. If these thunderstorms can be sustained, then isolated strong to severe winds may occur given the forecast strength of the low to mid-level flow in the presence of steepened low-level lapse rates. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging winds remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Appalachians into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of the northern Great Lakes. ...20Z Update... Some minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risks based on observational trends, but no major changes have been made to the outlook. Scattered damaging winds remain possible through late afternoon and perhaps into early evening from parts of WV into western/central PA and western MD/VA. See MCD 2040 regarding the short-term threat in this area. Also, see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes today while undergoing some amplification. Ahead of this feature, a surface front will move eastward over parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, and southeastward over the OH Valley before eventually stalling. A warm front will lift north through the period across the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial low cloud cover over much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will reduce daytime heating and delay destabilization, especially east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. However, with a moist low-level air mass in place, even modest diurnal heating will result in sufficient destabilization to support some risk for strong/severe storms. The stronger mid-level flow associated with the upper trough is expected to remain generally displaced to the north/west of the surface warm sector. Even so, modestly increasing west-southwesterly winds with height through mid levels should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear across parts of the central Appalachians and upper OH Valley vicinity. This shear will be sufficient for loosely organized multicell clusters to develop or intensify and subsequently spread east-southeastward through this afternoon. Isolated to scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with this convection, although some hail may also occur with the strongest cells. Storms should gradually weaken with eastward extent by this evening across the Mid-Atlantic while encountering a less unstable air mass. Weaker deep-layer shear with southward extent into the lower OH Valley and TN Valley will likely limit overall thunderstorm organization. However, occasional damaging winds may still occur with thunderstorms along/south of the front as low-level lapse rates steepen. ...Northern Great Lakes... Strong west-northwesterly mid-level flow will exist over the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes in association with a shortwave trough embedded within a broader cyclonic flow. While low-level moisture and related instability are both expected to remain limited, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may support the development of low-topped thunderstorms this afternoon. If these thunderstorms can be sustained, then isolated strong to severe winds may occur given the forecast strength of the low to mid-level flow in the presence of steepened low-level lapse rates. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging winds remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Appalachians into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of the northern Great Lakes. ...20Z Update... Some minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risks based on observational trends, but no major changes have been made to the outlook. Scattered damaging winds remain possible through late afternoon and perhaps into early evening from parts of WV into western/central PA and western MD/VA. See MCD 2040 regarding the short-term threat in this area. Also, see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes today while undergoing some amplification. Ahead of this feature, a surface front will move eastward over parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, and southeastward over the OH Valley before eventually stalling. A warm front will lift north through the period across the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial low cloud cover over much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will reduce daytime heating and delay destabilization, especially east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. However, with a moist low-level air mass in place, even modest diurnal heating will result in sufficient destabilization to support some risk for strong/severe storms. The stronger mid-level flow associated with the upper trough is expected to remain generally displaced to the north/west of the surface warm sector. Even so, modestly increasing west-southwesterly winds with height through mid levels should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear across parts of the central Appalachians and upper OH Valley vicinity. This shear will be sufficient for loosely organized multicell clusters to develop or intensify and subsequently spread east-southeastward through this afternoon. Isolated to scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with this convection, although some hail may also occur with the strongest cells. Storms should gradually weaken with eastward extent by this evening across the Mid-Atlantic while encountering a less unstable air mass. Weaker deep-layer shear with southward extent into the lower OH Valley and TN Valley will likely limit overall thunderstorm organization. However, occasional damaging winds may still occur with thunderstorms along/south of the front as low-level lapse rates steepen. ...Northern Great Lakes... Strong west-northwesterly mid-level flow will exist over the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes in association with a shortwave trough embedded within a broader cyclonic flow. While low-level moisture and related instability are both expected to remain limited, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may support the development of low-topped thunderstorms this afternoon. If these thunderstorms can be sustained, then isolated strong to severe winds may occur given the forecast strength of the low to mid-level flow in the presence of steepened low-level lapse rates. Read more

WW 0666 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 666 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N PIT TO 30 ENE LBE TO 20 ESE UNV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040 ..WENDT..08/31/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...CTP...RNK...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 666 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-023-312040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY GARRETT PAC003-009-013-051-059-111-125-129-312040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY BEDFORD BLAIR FAYETTE GREENE SOMERSET WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND VAC005-017-043-069-091-139-165-171-187-580-660-790-820-840- 312040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern on Sunday across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. An upper-level low is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the northern CA coast. This feature is expected to begin moving onshore Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Broadscale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread northern CA/southern OR and the northern Great Basin, resulting in slightly stronger surface winds compared to previous days (though generally at or below 15 mph) and isolated thunderstorm chances. Forecast soundings from across the region suggest buoyancy will be adequate for convection on the northern fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume, but mixed-layer LCLs between 3 to 3.5 km (indicative of a deep, dry boundary-layer) will promote little rain accumulation. As such, dry lightning appears likely and will pose a fire weather threat given regional ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentiles. Stronger forcing for ascent may result in higher thunderstorm coverage across the Great Basin compared to previous days, and recent CAM solutions hint that central to northeast NV may see the greatest potential for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern on Sunday across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. An upper-level low is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the northern CA coast. This feature is expected to begin moving onshore Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Broadscale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread northern CA/southern OR and the northern Great Basin, resulting in slightly stronger surface winds compared to previous days (though generally at or below 15 mph) and isolated thunderstorm chances. Forecast soundings from across the region suggest buoyancy will be adequate for convection on the northern fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume, but mixed-layer LCLs between 3 to 3.5 km (indicative of a deep, dry boundary-layer) will promote little rain accumulation. As such, dry lightning appears likely and will pose a fire weather threat given regional ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentiles. Stronger forcing for ascent may result in higher thunderstorm coverage across the Great Basin compared to previous days, and recent CAM solutions hint that central to northeast NV may see the greatest potential for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern on Sunday across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. An upper-level low is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the northern CA coast. This feature is expected to begin moving onshore Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Broadscale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread northern CA/southern OR and the northern Great Basin, resulting in slightly stronger surface winds compared to previous days (though generally at or below 15 mph) and isolated thunderstorm chances. Forecast soundings from across the region suggest buoyancy will be adequate for convection on the northern fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume, but mixed-layer LCLs between 3 to 3.5 km (indicative of a deep, dry boundary-layer) will promote little rain accumulation. As such, dry lightning appears likely and will pose a fire weather threat given regional ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentiles. Stronger forcing for ascent may result in higher thunderstorm coverage across the Great Basin compared to previous days, and recent CAM solutions hint that central to northeast NV may see the greatest potential for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern on Sunday across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. An upper-level low is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the northern CA coast. This feature is expected to begin moving onshore Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Broadscale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread northern CA/southern OR and the northern Great Basin, resulting in slightly stronger surface winds compared to previous days (though generally at or below 15 mph) and isolated thunderstorm chances. Forecast soundings from across the region suggest buoyancy will be adequate for convection on the northern fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume, but mixed-layer LCLs between 3 to 3.5 km (indicative of a deep, dry boundary-layer) will promote little rain accumulation. As such, dry lightning appears likely and will pose a fire weather threat given regional ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentiles. Stronger forcing for ascent may result in higher thunderstorm coverage across the Great Basin compared to previous days, and recent CAM solutions hint that central to northeast NV may see the greatest potential for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern on Sunday across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. An upper-level low is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the northern CA coast. This feature is expected to begin moving onshore Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Broadscale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread northern CA/southern OR and the northern Great Basin, resulting in slightly stronger surface winds compared to previous days (though generally at or below 15 mph) and isolated thunderstorm chances. Forecast soundings from across the region suggest buoyancy will be adequate for convection on the northern fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume, but mixed-layer LCLs between 3 to 3.5 km (indicative of a deep, dry boundary-layer) will promote little rain accumulation. As such, dry lightning appears likely and will pose a fire weather threat given regional ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentiles. Stronger forcing for ascent may result in higher thunderstorm coverage across the Great Basin compared to previous days, and recent CAM solutions hint that central to northeast NV may see the greatest potential for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern on Sunday across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. An upper-level low is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the northern CA coast. This feature is expected to begin moving onshore Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Broadscale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread northern CA/southern OR and the northern Great Basin, resulting in slightly stronger surface winds compared to previous days (though generally at or below 15 mph) and isolated thunderstorm chances. Forecast soundings from across the region suggest buoyancy will be adequate for convection on the northern fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume, but mixed-layer LCLs between 3 to 3.5 km (indicative of a deep, dry boundary-layer) will promote little rain accumulation. As such, dry lightning appears likely and will pose a fire weather threat given regional ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentiles. Stronger forcing for ascent may result in higher thunderstorm coverage across the Great Basin compared to previous days, and recent CAM solutions hint that central to northeast NV may see the greatest potential for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern on Sunday across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. An upper-level low is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the northern CA coast. This feature is expected to begin moving onshore Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Broadscale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread northern CA/southern OR and the northern Great Basin, resulting in slightly stronger surface winds compared to previous days (though generally at or below 15 mph) and isolated thunderstorm chances. Forecast soundings from across the region suggest buoyancy will be adequate for convection on the northern fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume, but mixed-layer LCLs between 3 to 3.5 km (indicative of a deep, dry boundary-layer) will promote little rain accumulation. As such, dry lightning appears likely and will pose a fire weather threat given regional ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentiles. Stronger forcing for ascent may result in higher thunderstorm coverage across the Great Basin compared to previous days, and recent CAM solutions hint that central to northeast NV may see the greatest potential for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern on Sunday across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. An upper-level low is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the northern CA coast. This feature is expected to begin moving onshore Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Broadscale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread northern CA/southern OR and the northern Great Basin, resulting in slightly stronger surface winds compared to previous days (though generally at or below 15 mph) and isolated thunderstorm chances. Forecast soundings from across the region suggest buoyancy will be adequate for convection on the northern fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume, but mixed-layer LCLs between 3 to 3.5 km (indicative of a deep, dry boundary-layer) will promote little rain accumulation. As such, dry lightning appears likely and will pose a fire weather threat given regional ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentiles. Stronger forcing for ascent may result in higher thunderstorm coverage across the Great Basin compared to previous days, and recent CAM solutions hint that central to northeast NV may see the greatest potential for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern on Sunday across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. An upper-level low is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the northern CA coast. This feature is expected to begin moving onshore Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Broadscale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread northern CA/southern OR and the northern Great Basin, resulting in slightly stronger surface winds compared to previous days (though generally at or below 15 mph) and isolated thunderstorm chances. Forecast soundings from across the region suggest buoyancy will be adequate for convection on the northern fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume, but mixed-layer LCLs between 3 to 3.5 km (indicative of a deep, dry boundary-layer) will promote little rain accumulation. As such, dry lightning appears likely and will pose a fire weather threat given regional ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentiles. Stronger forcing for ascent may result in higher thunderstorm coverage across the Great Basin compared to previous days, and recent CAM solutions hint that central to northeast NV may see the greatest potential for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern on Sunday across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. An upper-level low is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the northern CA coast. This feature is expected to begin moving onshore Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Broadscale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread northern CA/southern OR and the northern Great Basin, resulting in slightly stronger surface winds compared to previous days (though generally at or below 15 mph) and isolated thunderstorm chances. Forecast soundings from across the region suggest buoyancy will be adequate for convection on the northern fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume, but mixed-layer LCLs between 3 to 3.5 km (indicative of a deep, dry boundary-layer) will promote little rain accumulation. As such, dry lightning appears likely and will pose a fire weather threat given regional ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentiles. Stronger forcing for ascent may result in higher thunderstorm coverage across the Great Basin compared to previous days, and recent CAM solutions hint that central to northeast NV may see the greatest potential for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential remains quite limited across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over much of the central CONUS as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and a second mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Monday. WAA, driven by surface lee troughing across the Plains, as well as the heating of a moist boundary layer across the southeast quadrant of the U.S., will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from eastern NM to the central/southern Atlantic Seaboard. At least isolated thunderstorm development is also likely across much of the Interior West as the West Coast mid-level trough approaches. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form near a weak surface low to the lee of the Cascades late Monday afternoon into early evening. These storms should be high based as they develop atop a boundary layer that may mix up to 600-500 mb. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km amid stronger unidirectional southwesterly flow above 500 mb (hence elongated hodographs) may encourage storm organization to some degree, with gusty winds possible. A Category 1/Marginal Risk for severe gusts may be needed over the Harney Basin in eastern OR in future outlooks if greater storm coverage by afternoon peak heating becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more