SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 weeks 1 day ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 weeks 1 day ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 weeks 1 day ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 weeks 1 day ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 weeks 1 day ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533 Status Reports

4 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0533 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 533 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742 ..DEAN..07/21/25 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC021-023-025-033-035-047-049-079-101-159-173-185-210140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDWARDS EFFINGHAM JASPER LAWRENCE RICHLAND SHELBY WABASH INC005-013-019-025-027-037-043-051-055-061-071-077-079-083-093- 101-105-117-125-143-153-175-210140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE ORANGE PIKE SCOTT SULLIVAN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533 Status Reports

4 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0533 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 533 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742 ..DEAN..07/21/25 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC021-023-025-033-035-047-049-079-101-159-173-185-210140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDWARDS EFFINGHAM JASPER LAWRENCE RICHLAND SHELBY WABASH INC005-013-019-025-027-037-043-051-055-061-071-077-079-083-093- 101-105-117-125-143-153-175-210140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE ORANGE PIKE SCOTT SULLIVAN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531 Status Reports

4 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0531 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 531 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GUYER..07/21/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-055-075-079-083-087-103-109-210140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROSEBUD TREASURE WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-025-033-041-053-087-089-210140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 532 Status Reports

4 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0532 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 532 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743 ..GUYER..07/21/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC017-031-103-149-210140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CHERRY KEYA PAHA ROCK SDC007-071-075-085-095-121-123-210140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530 Status Reports

4 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE POU TO 15 SE ORH TO 25 SW PSM TO 20 SSE PWM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741 ..DEAN..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-210040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC005-009-017-021-023-025-210040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL ESSEX MIDDLESEX NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK RIC001-003-005-007-009-210040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530 Status Reports

4 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE POU TO 15 SE ORH TO 25 SW PSM TO 20 SSE PWM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741 ..DEAN..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-210040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC005-009-017-021-023-025-210040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL ESSEX MIDDLESEX NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK RIC001-003-005-007-009-210040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530 Status Reports

4 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE POU TO 15 SE ORH TO 25 SW PSM TO 20 SSE PWM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741 ..DEAN..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-210040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC005-009-017-021-023-025-210040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL ESSEX MIDDLESEX NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK RIC001-003-005-007-009-210040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530 Status Reports

4 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE POU TO 15 SE ORH TO 25 SW PSM TO 20 SSE PWM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741 ..DEAN..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-210040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC005-009-017-021-023-025-210040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL ESSEX MIDDLESEX NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK RIC001-003-005-007-009-210040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530 Status Reports

4 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE POU TO 15 SE ORH TO 25 SW PSM TO 20 SSE PWM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741 ..DEAN..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-210040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC005-009-017-021-023-025-210040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL ESSEX MIDDLESEX NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK RIC001-003-005-007-009-210040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530

4 weeks 1 day ago
WW 530 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH RI VT CW 202010Z - 210100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 530 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 410 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Far Southern Maine Southern New Hampshire Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 410 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify and pose primarily a threat for strong to severe gusts (55-65 mph). Isolated large hail may accompany the stronger cells. This activity will likely reach the coast by the mid evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Boston MA to 25 miles south southwest of Pittsfield MA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Smith Read more

SPC MD 1741

4 weeks 1 day ago
MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0607 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southeast New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530... Valid 202307Z - 210030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind remains possible this evening before storms move offshore. DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has recently intensified and produced some reports of wind damage, and will likely continue to pose some severe threat to the coast, within a modestly unstable and favorably sheared environment. An embedded supercell within this cluster could also pose a short-term threat for a brief tornado. Storms farther north into eastern MA have been somewhat less organized, but the KBOX VWP currently shows moderate (25-35 kt) westerly flow in the 1-3 km AGL layer, and there is some potential for these storms to locally intensify and pose at least a localized wind-damage threat before moving offshore later this evening. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 40837250 40847307 41257316 41577314 41697284 41977175 42477147 43307097 43237063 42447034 41617052 41197116 40907236 40837250 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC MD 1741

4 weeks 1 day ago
MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0607 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southeast New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530... Valid 202307Z - 210030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind remains possible this evening before storms move offshore. DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has recently intensified and produced some reports of wind damage, and will likely continue to pose some severe threat to the coast, within a modestly unstable and favorably sheared environment. An embedded supercell within this cluster could also pose a short-term threat for a brief tornado. Storms farther north into eastern MA have been somewhat less organized, but the KBOX VWP currently shows moderate (25-35 kt) westerly flow in the 1-3 km AGL layer, and there is some potential for these storms to locally intensify and pose at least a localized wind-damage threat before moving offshore later this evening. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 40837250 40847307 41257316 41577314 41697284 41977175 42477147 43307097 43237063 42447034 41617052 41197116 40907236 40837250 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC MD 1740

4 weeks 1 day ago
MD 1740 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1740 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Areas affected...Central Illinois into southern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202152Z - 202345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of storms that has recently developed and intensified in central Illinois may pose some risk for damaging winds. It is not clear how far this cluster will move southeast or how intense it will be. A watch is possible, but it will depend on convective trends in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Despite lingering cloud cover strong heating south of a stationary font along with perhaps subtle aid from a passing MCV has promote storm development in central Illinois. The stronger effective shear is north of the boundary, but 25-30 kts south of the boundary may be sufficient for modest storm organization. The question remains how far southeast this storm cluster can persist. Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F along with mid/upper 70s F dewpoints will provide buoyant inflow and the boundary will provide some focus for propagation. Even with these positive factors, large scale ascent is weak as are mid-level lapse rates. The need for a watch is not immediately clear, but convective trends will be monitored over the next couple of hours. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39248935 39558929 39738915 39808844 39648755 39228558 38628571 38328643 38408756 38948900 39248935 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530 Status Reports

4 weeks 1 day ago
WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE POU TO 15 SE ORH TO 25 SW PSM TO 20 SSE PWM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741 ..DEAN..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-210040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC005-009-017-021-023-025-210040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL ESSEX MIDDLESEX NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK RIC001-003-005-007-009-210040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530

4 weeks 1 day ago
WW 530 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH RI VT CW 202010Z - 210100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 530 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 410 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Far Southern Maine Southern New Hampshire Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 410 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify and pose primarily a threat for strong to severe gusts (55-65 mph). Isolated large hail may accompany the stronger cells. This activity will likely reach the coast by the mid evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Boston MA to 25 miles south southwest of Pittsfield MA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Smith Read more