Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Most of the medium-range guidance has trend faster and less amplified with the shortwave trough expected to move from the Four Corners region through the central Plains on D4/Sunday. This more northerly progression will limit the interaction between this wave and any returning low-level moisture, which should limit thunderstorm potential throughout most of the day. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow in the wake of this lead wave, but with a more southerly track across the Southwest and into the southern Plains. Guidance is in relatively good agreement that this wave will move over the southern High Plains late D4/Sunday into early D5/Monday. This wave is expected to interact with the returning low-level moisture, with thunderstorm development along and ahead of its associated front from central OK/north TX into the Ozarks early Monday morning. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift eastward throughout the day D5/Monday, expanding into more of east/southeast TX and the Mid/Lower MS Valley. Seasonally warm and moist conditions are anticipated, and enough buoyancy and shear could be in place for severe thunderstorms. However, overall buoyancy will likely be mitigated by poor lapse rates, and warm mid-level temperatures could contribute to some inhibition. There is also some potential for a more front-parallel orientation, which could result in a more anafrontal character to the storms. These factors, combined with the notable variability within the guidance, introduce enough uncertainty to merit withholding any severe probabilities for D4/Sunday or D5/Monday with this outlook. Another shortwave trough may progress into the Plains on D7/Wednesday, with preceding moisture return across the southern Plains setting up the potential for thunderstorms as this wave and its associated cold front push eastward/southeastward across the southern Plains. However, GEFS members show large differences on how this wave progresses, with notable differences within the ECMWF members too. Some members within both of these ensemble systems suggest the development of a closed low over the Southwest instead of progressive wave into the Plains. Consequently, as with the earlier wave, predictability issues limit forecast confidence. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Most of the medium-range guidance has trend faster and less amplified with the shortwave trough expected to move from the Four Corners region through the central Plains on D4/Sunday. This more northerly progression will limit the interaction between this wave and any returning low-level moisture, which should limit thunderstorm potential throughout most of the day. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow in the wake of this lead wave, but with a more southerly track across the Southwest and into the southern Plains. Guidance is in relatively good agreement that this wave will move over the southern High Plains late D4/Sunday into early D5/Monday. This wave is expected to interact with the returning low-level moisture, with thunderstorm development along and ahead of its associated front from central OK/north TX into the Ozarks early Monday morning. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift eastward throughout the day D5/Monday, expanding into more of east/southeast TX and the Mid/Lower MS Valley. Seasonally warm and moist conditions are anticipated, and enough buoyancy and shear could be in place for severe thunderstorms. However, overall buoyancy will likely be mitigated by poor lapse rates, and warm mid-level temperatures could contribute to some inhibition. There is also some potential for a more front-parallel orientation, which could result in a more anafrontal character to the storms. These factors, combined with the notable variability within the guidance, introduce enough uncertainty to merit withholding any severe probabilities for D4/Sunday or D5/Monday with this outlook. Another shortwave trough may progress into the Plains on D7/Wednesday, with preceding moisture return across the southern Plains setting up the potential for thunderstorms as this wave and its associated cold front push eastward/southeastward across the southern Plains. However, GEFS members show large differences on how this wave progresses, with notable differences within the ECMWF members too. Some members within both of these ensemble systems suggest the development of a closed low over the Southwest instead of progressive wave into the Plains. Consequently, as with the earlier wave, predictability issues limit forecast confidence. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Most of the medium-range guidance has trend faster and less amplified with the shortwave trough expected to move from the Four Corners region through the central Plains on D4/Sunday. This more northerly progression will limit the interaction between this wave and any returning low-level moisture, which should limit thunderstorm potential throughout most of the day. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow in the wake of this lead wave, but with a more southerly track across the Southwest and into the southern Plains. Guidance is in relatively good agreement that this wave will move over the southern High Plains late D4/Sunday into early D5/Monday. This wave is expected to interact with the returning low-level moisture, with thunderstorm development along and ahead of its associated front from central OK/north TX into the Ozarks early Monday morning. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift eastward throughout the day D5/Monday, expanding into more of east/southeast TX and the Mid/Lower MS Valley. Seasonally warm and moist conditions are anticipated, and enough buoyancy and shear could be in place for severe thunderstorms. However, overall buoyancy will likely be mitigated by poor lapse rates, and warm mid-level temperatures could contribute to some inhibition. There is also some potential for a more front-parallel orientation, which could result in a more anafrontal character to the storms. These factors, combined with the notable variability within the guidance, introduce enough uncertainty to merit withholding any severe probabilities for D4/Sunday or D5/Monday with this outlook. Another shortwave trough may progress into the Plains on D7/Wednesday, with preceding moisture return across the southern Plains setting up the potential for thunderstorms as this wave and its associated cold front push eastward/southeastward across the southern Plains. However, GEFS members show large differences on how this wave progresses, with notable differences within the ECMWF members too. Some members within both of these ensemble systems suggest the development of a closed low over the Southwest instead of progressive wave into the Plains. Consequently, as with the earlier wave, predictability issues limit forecast confidence. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Most of the medium-range guidance has trend faster and less amplified with the shortwave trough expected to move from the Four Corners region through the central Plains on D4/Sunday. This more northerly progression will limit the interaction between this wave and any returning low-level moisture, which should limit thunderstorm potential throughout most of the day. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow in the wake of this lead wave, but with a more southerly track across the Southwest and into the southern Plains. Guidance is in relatively good agreement that this wave will move over the southern High Plains late D4/Sunday into early D5/Monday. This wave is expected to interact with the returning low-level moisture, with thunderstorm development along and ahead of its associated front from central OK/north TX into the Ozarks early Monday morning. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift eastward throughout the day D5/Monday, expanding into more of east/southeast TX and the Mid/Lower MS Valley. Seasonally warm and moist conditions are anticipated, and enough buoyancy and shear could be in place for severe thunderstorms. However, overall buoyancy will likely be mitigated by poor lapse rates, and warm mid-level temperatures could contribute to some inhibition. There is also some potential for a more front-parallel orientation, which could result in a more anafrontal character to the storms. These factors, combined with the notable variability within the guidance, introduce enough uncertainty to merit withholding any severe probabilities for D4/Sunday or D5/Monday with this outlook. Another shortwave trough may progress into the Plains on D7/Wednesday, with preceding moisture return across the southern Plains setting up the potential for thunderstorms as this wave and its associated cold front push eastward/southeastward across the southern Plains. However, GEFS members show large differences on how this wave progresses, with notable differences within the ECMWF members too. Some members within both of these ensemble systems suggest the development of a closed low over the Southwest instead of progressive wave into the Plains. Consequently, as with the earlier wave, predictability issues limit forecast confidence. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Most of the medium-range guidance has trend faster and less amplified with the shortwave trough expected to move from the Four Corners region through the central Plains on D4/Sunday. This more northerly progression will limit the interaction between this wave and any returning low-level moisture, which should limit thunderstorm potential throughout most of the day. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow in the wake of this lead wave, but with a more southerly track across the Southwest and into the southern Plains. Guidance is in relatively good agreement that this wave will move over the southern High Plains late D4/Sunday into early D5/Monday. This wave is expected to interact with the returning low-level moisture, with thunderstorm development along and ahead of its associated front from central OK/north TX into the Ozarks early Monday morning. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift eastward throughout the day D5/Monday, expanding into more of east/southeast TX and the Mid/Lower MS Valley. Seasonally warm and moist conditions are anticipated, and enough buoyancy and shear could be in place for severe thunderstorms. However, overall buoyancy will likely be mitigated by poor lapse rates, and warm mid-level temperatures could contribute to some inhibition. There is also some potential for a more front-parallel orientation, which could result in a more anafrontal character to the storms. These factors, combined with the notable variability within the guidance, introduce enough uncertainty to merit withholding any severe probabilities for D4/Sunday or D5/Monday with this outlook. Another shortwave trough may progress into the Plains on D7/Wednesday, with preceding moisture return across the southern Plains setting up the potential for thunderstorms as this wave and its associated cold front push eastward/southeastward across the southern Plains. However, GEFS members show large differences on how this wave progresses, with notable differences within the ECMWF members too. Some members within both of these ensemble systems suggest the development of a closed low over the Southwest instead of progressive wave into the Plains. Consequently, as with the earlier wave, predictability issues limit forecast confidence. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A stacked mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over the central Plains early Saturday morning before progressing northeastward throughout the day and ending the period over the Mid MS Valley. This cyclone will be accompanied by strong mid-level jet throughout its base, which will spread from OK northeastward across MO and into the Lower OH Valley as the cyclone moves northeastward. This overall evolution will displace this cyclone and associated ascent well north of the better low-level moisture, which is expected to remain confined largely to the TX and LA coasts throughout the day. Even so, a strong low-level jet is anticipated throughout the warm sector of this cyclone, and the associated warm-air advection will likely result in elevated showers and thunderstorms. Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from east TX into the Lower MO Valley. This is area expected is shift eastward throughout the day with gradually diminishing storm coverage. Limited buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but vertical shear is strong enough to support small-hail production within the deepest, most persistent updrafts. An additional northwestward push of greater low-level moisture into more of the TX Hill Country is possible late Saturday/early Sunday ahead of another shortwave trough approaching the Four Corners. A few isolated thunderstorms may occur over the TX Hill Country as this returning moisture interacts with increasing low-level flow. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A stacked mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over the central Plains early Saturday morning before progressing northeastward throughout the day and ending the period over the Mid MS Valley. This cyclone will be accompanied by strong mid-level jet throughout its base, which will spread from OK northeastward across MO and into the Lower OH Valley as the cyclone moves northeastward. This overall evolution will displace this cyclone and associated ascent well north of the better low-level moisture, which is expected to remain confined largely to the TX and LA coasts throughout the day. Even so, a strong low-level jet is anticipated throughout the warm sector of this cyclone, and the associated warm-air advection will likely result in elevated showers and thunderstorms. Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from east TX into the Lower MO Valley. This is area expected is shift eastward throughout the day with gradually diminishing storm coverage. Limited buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but vertical shear is strong enough to support small-hail production within the deepest, most persistent updrafts. An additional northwestward push of greater low-level moisture into more of the TX Hill Country is possible late Saturday/early Sunday ahead of another shortwave trough approaching the Four Corners. A few isolated thunderstorms may occur over the TX Hill Country as this returning moisture interacts with increasing low-level flow. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A stacked mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over the central Plains early Saturday morning before progressing northeastward throughout the day and ending the period over the Mid MS Valley. This cyclone will be accompanied by strong mid-level jet throughout its base, which will spread from OK northeastward across MO and into the Lower OH Valley as the cyclone moves northeastward. This overall evolution will displace this cyclone and associated ascent well north of the better low-level moisture, which is expected to remain confined largely to the TX and LA coasts throughout the day. Even so, a strong low-level jet is anticipated throughout the warm sector of this cyclone, and the associated warm-air advection will likely result in elevated showers and thunderstorms. Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from east TX into the Lower MO Valley. This is area expected is shift eastward throughout the day with gradually diminishing storm coverage. Limited buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but vertical shear is strong enough to support small-hail production within the deepest, most persistent updrafts. An additional northwestward push of greater low-level moisture into more of the TX Hill Country is possible late Saturday/early Sunday ahead of another shortwave trough approaching the Four Corners. A few isolated thunderstorms may occur over the TX Hill Country as this returning moisture interacts with increasing low-level flow. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A stacked mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over the central Plains early Saturday morning before progressing northeastward throughout the day and ending the period over the Mid MS Valley. This cyclone will be accompanied by strong mid-level jet throughout its base, which will spread from OK northeastward across MO and into the Lower OH Valley as the cyclone moves northeastward. This overall evolution will displace this cyclone and associated ascent well north of the better low-level moisture, which is expected to remain confined largely to the TX and LA coasts throughout the day. Even so, a strong low-level jet is anticipated throughout the warm sector of this cyclone, and the associated warm-air advection will likely result in elevated showers and thunderstorms. Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from east TX into the Lower MO Valley. This is area expected is shift eastward throughout the day with gradually diminishing storm coverage. Limited buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but vertical shear is strong enough to support small-hail production within the deepest, most persistent updrafts. An additional northwestward push of greater low-level moisture into more of the TX Hill Country is possible late Saturday/early Sunday ahead of another shortwave trough approaching the Four Corners. A few isolated thunderstorms may occur over the TX Hill Country as this returning moisture interacts with increasing low-level flow. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A stacked mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over the central Plains early Saturday morning before progressing northeastward throughout the day and ending the period over the Mid MS Valley. This cyclone will be accompanied by strong mid-level jet throughout its base, which will spread from OK northeastward across MO and into the Lower OH Valley as the cyclone moves northeastward. This overall evolution will displace this cyclone and associated ascent well north of the better low-level moisture, which is expected to remain confined largely to the TX and LA coasts throughout the day. Even so, a strong low-level jet is anticipated throughout the warm sector of this cyclone, and the associated warm-air advection will likely result in elevated showers and thunderstorms. Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from east TX into the Lower MO Valley. This is area expected is shift eastward throughout the day with gradually diminishing storm coverage. Limited buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but vertical shear is strong enough to support small-hail production within the deepest, most persistent updrafts. An additional northwestward push of greater low-level moisture into more of the TX Hill Country is possible late Saturday/early Sunday ahead of another shortwave trough approaching the Four Corners. A few isolated thunderstorms may occur over the TX Hill Country as this returning moisture interacts with increasing low-level flow. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A stacked mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over the central Plains early Saturday morning before progressing northeastward throughout the day and ending the period over the Mid MS Valley. This cyclone will be accompanied by strong mid-level jet throughout its base, which will spread from OK northeastward across MO and into the Lower OH Valley as the cyclone moves northeastward. This overall evolution will displace this cyclone and associated ascent well north of the better low-level moisture, which is expected to remain confined largely to the TX and LA coasts throughout the day. Even so, a strong low-level jet is anticipated throughout the warm sector of this cyclone, and the associated warm-air advection will likely result in elevated showers and thunderstorms. Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from east TX into the Lower MO Valley. This is area expected is shift eastward throughout the day with gradually diminishing storm coverage. Limited buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but vertical shear is strong enough to support small-hail production within the deepest, most persistent updrafts. An additional northwestward push of greater low-level moisture into more of the TX Hill Country is possible late Saturday/early Sunday ahead of another shortwave trough approaching the Four Corners. A few isolated thunderstorms may occur over the TX Hill Country as this returning moisture interacts with increasing low-level flow. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the southern High Plains and western KS. Modified moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach north Texas by early Saturday morning but the mid 60s dewpoints are expected to remain confined to the TX Coastal Plain. A strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection over the pre-frontal warm sector (from southeast TX into the Lower MO Valley) is forecast to result in elevated thunderstorms from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with the expectation that most updrafts will be weak and transient. Strong vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) may support small hail within the deepest, most persistent updrafts. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the southern High Plains and western KS. Modified moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach north Texas by early Saturday morning but the mid 60s dewpoints are expected to remain confined to the TX Coastal Plain. A strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection over the pre-frontal warm sector (from southeast TX into the Lower MO Valley) is forecast to result in elevated thunderstorms from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with the expectation that most updrafts will be weak and transient. Strong vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) may support small hail within the deepest, most persistent updrafts. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the southern High Plains and western KS. Modified moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach north Texas by early Saturday morning but the mid 60s dewpoints are expected to remain confined to the TX Coastal Plain. A strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection over the pre-frontal warm sector (from southeast TX into the Lower MO Valley) is forecast to result in elevated thunderstorms from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with the expectation that most updrafts will be weak and transient. Strong vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) may support small hail within the deepest, most persistent updrafts. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2024 Read more