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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the High Plains vicinity Day 4/Tue morning will deepen and track east to the MS Valley by Day 5/Wed, and to the Atlantic coast by Day 6/Thu. As this occurs, a cold front will move across the south-central and southeast states, pushing offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts by late Day 5/Wed into early Day 6/Thu. While thunderstorm potential will be possible with this system, severe potential appears limited, given weak instability and deep-layer flow oriented parallel to the surface boundary (leading to more anafrontal processes). With the strong front moving well into the Gulf of Mexico, boundary-layer moisture will remain scant heading into the end of the forecast period, and severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low Days 7-8/Fri-Sat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the High Plains vicinity Day 4/Tue morning will deepen and track east to the MS Valley by Day 5/Wed, and to the Atlantic coast by Day 6/Thu. As this occurs, a cold front will move across the south-central and southeast states, pushing offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts by late Day 5/Wed into early Day 6/Thu. While thunderstorm potential will be possible with this system, severe potential appears limited, given weak instability and deep-layer flow oriented parallel to the surface boundary (leading to more anafrontal processes). With the strong front moving well into the Gulf of Mexico, boundary-layer moisture will remain scant heading into the end of the forecast period, and severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low Days 7-8/Fri-Sat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the High Plains vicinity Day 4/Tue morning will deepen and track east to the MS Valley by Day 5/Wed, and to the Atlantic coast by Day 6/Thu. As this occurs, a cold front will move across the south-central and southeast states, pushing offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts by late Day 5/Wed into early Day 6/Thu. While thunderstorm potential will be possible with this system, severe potential appears limited, given weak instability and deep-layer flow oriented parallel to the surface boundary (leading to more anafrontal processes). With the strong front moving well into the Gulf of Mexico, boundary-layer moisture will remain scant heading into the end of the forecast period, and severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low Days 7-8/Fri-Sat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the High Plains vicinity Day 4/Tue morning will deepen and track east to the MS Valley by Day 5/Wed, and to the Atlantic coast by Day 6/Thu. As this occurs, a cold front will move across the south-central and southeast states, pushing offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts by late Day 5/Wed into early Day 6/Thu. While thunderstorm potential will be possible with this system, severe potential appears limited, given weak instability and deep-layer flow oriented parallel to the surface boundary (leading to more anafrontal processes). With the strong front moving well into the Gulf of Mexico, boundary-layer moisture will remain scant heading into the end of the forecast period, and severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low Days 7-8/Fri-Sat. Read more

MD 2266 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2266 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Areas affected...parts of north central Missouri into southeastern Iowa Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 140541Z - 140945Z SUMMARY...Rain and embedded thunderstorms forming across western Missouri during the next few hours appear likely to continue developing northeastward and eastward overnight, supporting moderate freezing rain with potential for appreciable icing north-northwest of Kirksville MO through the Ottumwa IA vicinity by 2-4 AM CST. DISCUSSION...Downstream of a notable short wave trough progressing across the central Great Plains, moisture return within a developing area of large-scale ascent, rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, is contributing to an ongoing gradual increase in precipitation northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley into eastern Oklahoma. From east of the Sioux Falls area into southeastern Iowa, this appears focused along a 700 mb baroclinic zone which is forecast to slowly develop northward toward the upper Mississippi Valley overnight. Southward across western Missouri into eastern Oklahoma, this appears generally aligned with better lower-level moisture return along one branch of a strong low-level jet (40-50 kt around 850 mb), which is forecast to slowly shift eastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley through 08-10Z. Models indicate that substantive further warming and moistening along the low-level jet will contribute to sufficient steepening of mid-level lapse rates to support weak CAPE above a slowly modifying, but still cold and stable near surface environment across much of Missouri into Iowa. Based on the latest NAM/Rapid Refresh, among other output, it appears that this may be accompanied by a blossoming band of convection and perhaps embedded weak thunderstorm activity north of Springfield MO through and north of Kirksville by 07-08Z, before continuing to spread northeastward and eastward. North/northwest of Kirksville, northeastward across the Ottumwa vicinity of southeastern Iowa, forecast soundings indicate that a pronounced warm nose will continue to develop above sub-freezing boundary-layer air, which may be maintained (aided initially by evaporative cooling of precipitation) as far south as portions of north central Missouri at least into the 10-11Z time frame. This may allow for appreciable ice accrual as developing convection supports a sustained period of moderate freezing rain, including rates occasionally on the order of 1/4+ inch per hour. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40239343 41359317 41749235 41399167 40719191 40289234 40069292 40239343 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the mid-level trough ejects over the central Rockies and into the Plains early D2/Sunday, a lee low and trailing surface trough will quickly deepen across parts of the High Plains. At the same time, a cold front will approach from the interior West. Aided by strong mid-level westerlies at the base of the trough and downslope pressure gradients, several hours of strong surface winds (20-30 mph) are likely across parts of the central High Plains. These strong winds may briefly overlap with areas of moderately low RH (~30%) across western NE and eastern WY. Farther south into eastern NM and far West TX, lower RH will remain possible with more mild temperatures and diurnal minimums of 20-25%. However, winds here are expected to be slower and more transient, owing to the weaker surface pressure falls and flow aloft. The net result will be a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions in the lee of the Rockies where fuels are somewhat dry. While there is some risk, fire-weather concerns are not expected to be widespread, given the brief nature of the strong winds and lower RH, as well as the passage of the cold front Sunday evening. ..Lyons.. 12/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the mid-level trough ejects over the central Rockies and into the Plains early D2/Sunday, a lee low and trailing surface trough will quickly deepen across parts of the High Plains. At the same time, a cold front will approach from the interior West. Aided by strong mid-level westerlies at the base of the trough and downslope pressure gradients, several hours of strong surface winds (20-30 mph) are likely across parts of the central High Plains. These strong winds may briefly overlap with areas of moderately low RH (~30%) across western NE and eastern WY. Farther south into eastern NM and far West TX, lower RH will remain possible with more mild temperatures and diurnal minimums of 20-25%. However, winds here are expected to be slower and more transient, owing to the weaker surface pressure falls and flow aloft. The net result will be a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions in the lee of the Rockies where fuels are somewhat dry. While there is some risk, fire-weather concerns are not expected to be widespread, given the brief nature of the strong winds and lower RH, as well as the passage of the cold front Sunday evening. ..Lyons.. 12/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the mid-level trough ejects over the central Rockies and into the Plains early D2/Sunday, a lee low and trailing surface trough will quickly deepen across parts of the High Plains. At the same time, a cold front will approach from the interior West. Aided by strong mid-level westerlies at the base of the trough and downslope pressure gradients, several hours of strong surface winds (20-30 mph) are likely across parts of the central High Plains. These strong winds may briefly overlap with areas of moderately low RH (~30%) across western NE and eastern WY. Farther south into eastern NM and far West TX, lower RH will remain possible with more mild temperatures and diurnal minimums of 20-25%. However, winds here are expected to be slower and more transient, owing to the weaker surface pressure falls and flow aloft. The net result will be a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions in the lee of the Rockies where fuels are somewhat dry. While there is some risk, fire-weather concerns are not expected to be widespread, given the brief nature of the strong winds and lower RH, as well as the passage of the cold front Sunday evening. ..Lyons.. 12/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the mid-level trough ejects over the central Rockies and into the Plains early D2/Sunday, a lee low and trailing surface trough will quickly deepen across parts of the High Plains. At the same time, a cold front will approach from the interior West. Aided by strong mid-level westerlies at the base of the trough and downslope pressure gradients, several hours of strong surface winds (20-30 mph) are likely across parts of the central High Plains. These strong winds may briefly overlap with areas of moderately low RH (~30%) across western NE and eastern WY. Farther south into eastern NM and far West TX, lower RH will remain possible with more mild temperatures and diurnal minimums of 20-25%. However, winds here are expected to be slower and more transient, owing to the weaker surface pressure falls and flow aloft. The net result will be a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions in the lee of the Rockies where fuels are somewhat dry. While there is some risk, fire-weather concerns are not expected to be widespread, given the brief nature of the strong winds and lower RH, as well as the passage of the cold front Sunday evening. ..Lyons.. 12/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough moving over the Southern Plains will rapidly move eastward as shortwave ridging develops over the Rockies and High Plains in its wake. A second mid-level trough farther west will begin to approach later this evening and overnight as increasingly strong westerly flow overspreads the Plains again. The ridging will initially favor weak surface winds and relatively mild temperatures through much of the day before the approaching trough aids in developing a lee cyclone over the central and northern High Plains. The deepening low and strong westerly winds aloft may support downslope flow over parts of the Rockies and High Plains with gusts of 20-30 mph. However, the late arrival of the trough, poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, will favor relatively poor overlap with low RH values. This should limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough moving over the Southern Plains will rapidly move eastward as shortwave ridging develops over the Rockies and High Plains in its wake. A second mid-level trough farther west will begin to approach later this evening and overnight as increasingly strong westerly flow overspreads the Plains again. The ridging will initially favor weak surface winds and relatively mild temperatures through much of the day before the approaching trough aids in developing a lee cyclone over the central and northern High Plains. The deepening low and strong westerly winds aloft may support downslope flow over parts of the Rockies and High Plains with gusts of 20-30 mph. However, the late arrival of the trough, poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, will favor relatively poor overlap with low RH values. This should limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough moving over the Southern Plains will rapidly move eastward as shortwave ridging develops over the Rockies and High Plains in its wake. A second mid-level trough farther west will begin to approach later this evening and overnight as increasingly strong westerly flow overspreads the Plains again. The ridging will initially favor weak surface winds and relatively mild temperatures through much of the day before the approaching trough aids in developing a lee cyclone over the central and northern High Plains. The deepening low and strong westerly winds aloft may support downslope flow over parts of the Rockies and High Plains with gusts of 20-30 mph. However, the late arrival of the trough, poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, will favor relatively poor overlap with low RH values. This should limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough moving over the Southern Plains will rapidly move eastward as shortwave ridging develops over the Rockies and High Plains in its wake. A second mid-level trough farther west will begin to approach later this evening and overnight as increasingly strong westerly flow overspreads the Plains again. The ridging will initially favor weak surface winds and relatively mild temperatures through much of the day before the approaching trough aids in developing a lee cyclone over the central and northern High Plains. The deepening low and strong westerly winds aloft may support downslope flow over parts of the Rockies and High Plains with gusts of 20-30 mph. However, the late arrival of the trough, poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, will favor relatively poor overlap with low RH values. This should limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ...South-Central States... An upper trough over the Plains will shift east across the Midwest and into the Northeast on Monday. The bulk of stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent will be focused across the Mid-MS and OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across the Midwest, while the southwest extent of the boundary drops more south/southeast across parts of the southern Plains and the Lower MS Valley. The front should extend from northern MS into central TX by early Tuesday. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints over the eastern half of TX into the Mid-South and Lower MS Valley. While this will aid in modest destabilization across portions of southern/central TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity, vertical shear is expected to be modest (less than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes) and large-scale ascent will remain displaced well to the north. As a result, severe-thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 12/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ...South-Central States... An upper trough over the Plains will shift east across the Midwest and into the Northeast on Monday. The bulk of stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent will be focused across the Mid-MS and OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across the Midwest, while the southwest extent of the boundary drops more south/southeast across parts of the southern Plains and the Lower MS Valley. The front should extend from northern MS into central TX by early Tuesday. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints over the eastern half of TX into the Mid-South and Lower MS Valley. While this will aid in modest destabilization across portions of southern/central TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity, vertical shear is expected to be modest (less than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes) and large-scale ascent will remain displaced well to the north. As a result, severe-thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 12/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ...South-Central States... An upper trough over the Plains will shift east across the Midwest and into the Northeast on Monday. The bulk of stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent will be focused across the Mid-MS and OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across the Midwest, while the southwest extent of the boundary drops more south/southeast across parts of the southern Plains and the Lower MS Valley. The front should extend from northern MS into central TX by early Tuesday. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints over the eastern half of TX into the Mid-South and Lower MS Valley. While this will aid in modest destabilization across portions of southern/central TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity, vertical shear is expected to be modest (less than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes) and large-scale ascent will remain displaced well to the north. As a result, severe-thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 12/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ...South-Central States... An upper trough over the Plains will shift east across the Midwest and into the Northeast on Monday. The bulk of stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent will be focused across the Mid-MS and OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across the Midwest, while the southwest extent of the boundary drops more south/southeast across parts of the southern Plains and the Lower MS Valley. The front should extend from northern MS into central TX by early Tuesday. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints over the eastern half of TX into the Mid-South and Lower MS Valley. While this will aid in modest destabilization across portions of southern/central TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity, vertical shear is expected to be modest (less than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes) and large-scale ascent will remain displaced well to the north. As a result, severe-thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 12/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ...South-Central States... An upper trough over the Plains will shift east across the Midwest and into the Northeast on Monday. The bulk of stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent will be focused across the Mid-MS and OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across the Midwest, while the southwest extent of the boundary drops more south/southeast across parts of the southern Plains and the Lower MS Valley. The front should extend from northern MS into central TX by early Tuesday. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints over the eastern half of TX into the Mid-South and Lower MS Valley. While this will aid in modest destabilization across portions of southern/central TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity, vertical shear is expected to be modest (less than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes) and large-scale ascent will remain displaced well to the north. As a result, severe-thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 12/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east into the Plains Sunday night into early Monday. As a result, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly mid/upper flow will envelop the central/southern Plains toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley. At the surface, a deepening low will track east along the international border in the vicinity of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front is forecast to move southeast across much of the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest, becoming positioned from central MO southwestward into northwest TX by 12z Monday. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned front will allow upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints to spread northward across much of TX into eastern OK, LA, AR and southern MO. Shortwave upper ridging for much of the period prior to 03z will likely preclude thunderstorm activity within the warm conveyor. However, stronger height falls associated with the ejecting trough will overspread the southern Plains (though stronger large-scale ascent will remain focused further north). Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop near the southeastward-advancing cold front in the 06-12z time frame. Favorable, vertically veering wind profiles suggest some thunderstorm organization will be possible. However, convection is expected to mostly remain elevated in nature given cool surface temperatures overnight, resulting in little surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the front, resulting in convection tracking to the cool side of the boundary. Given cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates approaching 7 C/km in a moderately sheared environment, some small hail could accompany the strongest updrafts across eastern OK into parts of AR and southern MO. However, overall severe potential appears low/too conditional to include probabilities at this time given stronger large-scale ascent focused further north of better low-level moisture, and expectation for limited surface-based instability. ..Leitman.. 12/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east into the Plains Sunday night into early Monday. As a result, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly mid/upper flow will envelop the central/southern Plains toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley. At the surface, a deepening low will track east along the international border in the vicinity of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front is forecast to move southeast across much of the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest, becoming positioned from central MO southwestward into northwest TX by 12z Monday. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned front will allow upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints to spread northward across much of TX into eastern OK, LA, AR and southern MO. Shortwave upper ridging for much of the period prior to 03z will likely preclude thunderstorm activity within the warm conveyor. However, stronger height falls associated with the ejecting trough will overspread the southern Plains (though stronger large-scale ascent will remain focused further north). Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop near the southeastward-advancing cold front in the 06-12z time frame. Favorable, vertically veering wind profiles suggest some thunderstorm organization will be possible. However, convection is expected to mostly remain elevated in nature given cool surface temperatures overnight, resulting in little surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the front, resulting in convection tracking to the cool side of the boundary. Given cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates approaching 7 C/km in a moderately sheared environment, some small hail could accompany the strongest updrafts across eastern OK into parts of AR and southern MO. However, overall severe potential appears low/too conditional to include probabilities at this time given stronger large-scale ascent focused further north of better low-level moisture, and expectation for limited surface-based instability. ..Leitman.. 12/14/2024 Read more