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WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AUS TO 40 NW LFK TO 50 SSW SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278 ..WEINMAN..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-015-021-041-051-055-089-123-149-177-185-201-225-285-287- 291-313-339-347-373-407-455-471-473-477-250440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 712 SEVERE TSTM TX 250015Z - 250600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 712 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into East/Southeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday night from 615 PM until Midnight CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercells will pose a threat for large hail around 1-1.75 inches in diameter this evening. Eventual upscale growth into a line may result in some threat for severe/damaging winds. A tornado or two also appears possible this evening with any sustained supercell. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles east southeast of Lufkin TX to 45 miles west southwest of College Station TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AUS TO 25 SE GGG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278 ..WEINMAN..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-015-021-041-051-055-073-089-123-149-177-185-201-225-285- 287-291-313-339-347-373-407-455-471-473-477-250340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHEROKEE COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2277 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central and east/southeast Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712... Valid 250109Z - 250245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712 continues. SUMMARY...Risk for large hail and damaging gusts continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in intensity and coverage along a northeast/southwest-oriented pre-frontal confluence zone draped across central and east/southeast TX this evening. A cold front is also approaching from the northwest, and is beginning to catch up to the northern portion of the confluence zone. Here, congealing outflow is favoring localized upscale growth, and damaging winds will be the primary concern. The one exception is a persistent semi-discrete supercell ahead of the line which will pose a risk of large hail (generally up to 1.5 inches) in the near term. Farther south, regional VWP data indicates 30-40 kt of west-southwesterly 0-6 km shear, oriented oblique to the pre-frontal confluence zone. Given this shear orientation and increased separation from the approaching cold front, discrete/semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk of large hail (some up to 1.75 inches), with damaging winds also possible. With time, increasing storm development will favor upscale growth, and the severe-wind risk will become the main threat before convection gets undercut by the front. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30879678 31699602 31909576 32079531 32059483 31829466 30089623 29649707 29709751 29879780 30359748 30879678 Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2277 ..WEINMAN..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-015-021-041-051-055-073-089-149-161-185-201-225-287- 289-291-293-313-331-339-347-373-395-401-407-453-455-471-473-477- 491-250240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHEROKEE COLORADO FAYETTE FREESTONE GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LEE LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK ROBERTSON RUSK SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0712 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 24 23:16:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 24 23:16:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more