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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to prevail over the Plains Saturday, while a sharp trough advances slowly across the West. Meanwhile, weak troughing will prevail over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Mississippi Valley, while a remnant baroclinic zone extends from the northern High Plains south-southeastward into the Kansas through most of the period. ...Four Corners area east-northeastward across the central High Plains... As upper troughing moves slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, modest destabilization across the Four Corners states will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Though instability will remain weak, a belt of stronger mid-level flow on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned trough will allow a few stronger storms to evolve. This, combined with dry sub-cloud layer, suggests that locally damaging winds will be possible. By late afternoon and into the evening, storm development is forecast to increase across eastern Colorado and into the Nebraska Panhandle region -- in the vicinity of the surface boundary. While flow aloft will be weaker across this area, the strongest storms may produce damaging wind gusts and hail. Risk should diminish through late evening in tandem with nocturnal low-level stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to prevail over the Plains Saturday, while a sharp trough advances slowly across the West. Meanwhile, weak troughing will prevail over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Mississippi Valley, while a remnant baroclinic zone extends from the northern High Plains south-southeastward into the Kansas through most of the period. ...Four Corners area east-northeastward across the central High Plains... As upper troughing moves slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, modest destabilization across the Four Corners states will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Though instability will remain weak, a belt of stronger mid-level flow on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned trough will allow a few stronger storms to evolve. This, combined with dry sub-cloud layer, suggests that locally damaging winds will be possible. By late afternoon and into the evening, storm development is forecast to increase across eastern Colorado and into the Nebraska Panhandle region -- in the vicinity of the surface boundary. While flow aloft will be weaker across this area, the strongest storms may produce damaging wind gusts and hail. Risk should diminish through late evening in tandem with nocturnal low-level stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to prevail over the Plains Saturday, while a sharp trough advances slowly across the West. Meanwhile, weak troughing will prevail over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Mississippi Valley, while a remnant baroclinic zone extends from the northern High Plains south-southeastward into the Kansas through most of the period. ...Four Corners area east-northeastward across the central High Plains... As upper troughing moves slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, modest destabilization across the Four Corners states will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Though instability will remain weak, a belt of stronger mid-level flow on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned trough will allow a few stronger storms to evolve. This, combined with dry sub-cloud layer, suggests that locally damaging winds will be possible. By late afternoon and into the evening, storm development is forecast to increase across eastern Colorado and into the Nebraska Panhandle region -- in the vicinity of the surface boundary. While flow aloft will be weaker across this area, the strongest storms may produce damaging wind gusts and hail. Risk should diminish through late evening in tandem with nocturnal low-level stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to prevail over the Plains Saturday, while a sharp trough advances slowly across the West. Meanwhile, weak troughing will prevail over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Mississippi Valley, while a remnant baroclinic zone extends from the northern High Plains south-southeastward into the Kansas through most of the period. ...Four Corners area east-northeastward across the central High Plains... As upper troughing moves slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, modest destabilization across the Four Corners states will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Though instability will remain weak, a belt of stronger mid-level flow on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned trough will allow a few stronger storms to evolve. This, combined with dry sub-cloud layer, suggests that locally damaging winds will be possible. By late afternoon and into the evening, storm development is forecast to increase across eastern Colorado and into the Nebraska Panhandle region -- in the vicinity of the surface boundary. While flow aloft will be weaker across this area, the strongest storms may produce damaging wind gusts and hail. Risk should diminish through late evening in tandem with nocturnal low-level stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EASTERN GREAT BASIN...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST AZ INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms with severe gusts and possibly some hail are possible across Montana, the Intermountain West and central Rockies, southeast Arizona, and the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will persist over the West today. A strong embedded shortwave trough and attendant midlevel jet maximum will move quickly northeastward from the Great Basin into the interior Northwest/northern Rockies through the day. A surface low is forecast to deepen across western MT through the day, in conjunction with the passage of the shortwave trough. A weaker surface low may move gradually northeastward across the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will extend from TX/OK into the central/northern High Plains, while a plume of monsoonal moisture will persist from the Southwest/southern Rockies into eastern parts of the Great Basin. ...Parts of UT/western CO into the interior Northwest and western/central MT... Stronger ascent related to the ejecting shortwave trough over the interior Northwest may remain somewhat displaced from better moisture/instability through the day. However, it will likely aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms across a broad region from UT/western CO into parts of the Northwest/northern Rockies. The combination of relatively high-based convection and increasing low/midlevel flow will support a threat of at least isolated severe gusts across a broad region from the eastern Great Basin into parts of ID/MT. Steep lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could also support an isolated hail threat, where sufficient pre-convective buoyancy can be realized. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of western/central MT, due to increased confidence in sufficiently deep convection to support a severe-wind threat. Portions of the Marginal Risk may eventually need greater wind probabilities, if confidence increases in one or more corridors where a greater coverage of severe gusts will be possible. Some severe-wind threat could also evolve west of the current Marginal across parts of OR/WA/western ID, in closer proximity to the shortwave trough, but confidence is lower at this time due to very limited forecast buoyancy in this area. ...Parts of the High Plains... Moderate to locally strong buoyancy is forecast to develop this afternoon across much of the High Plains, along/east of a wavy surface trough extending between the surface lows across MT and the southern High Plains. However, large-scale ascent will likely remain rather nebulous across this region, and the details of storm development and coverage remain uncertain. While midlevel flow will be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther west, it will remain sufficient to support effective shear of 30+ kt, conditionally supporting organized convection. Any sustained storms that can develop and be maintained during the afternoon/evening would pose a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast AZ vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected across southeast AZ into adjacent southwest NM. A modest increase in midlevel flow could support somewhat more organized storms compared to Thursday. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear increasing into the 20-25 kt range will support a threat of localized strong/severe gusts and possibly some hail with the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EASTERN GREAT BASIN...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST AZ INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms with severe gusts and possibly some hail are possible across Montana, the Intermountain West and central Rockies, southeast Arizona, and the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will persist over the West today. A strong embedded shortwave trough and attendant midlevel jet maximum will move quickly northeastward from the Great Basin into the interior Northwest/northern Rockies through the day. A surface low is forecast to deepen across western MT through the day, in conjunction with the passage of the shortwave trough. A weaker surface low may move gradually northeastward across the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will extend from TX/OK into the central/northern High Plains, while a plume of monsoonal moisture will persist from the Southwest/southern Rockies into eastern parts of the Great Basin. ...Parts of UT/western CO into the interior Northwest and western/central MT... Stronger ascent related to the ejecting shortwave trough over the interior Northwest may remain somewhat displaced from better moisture/instability through the day. However, it will likely aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms across a broad region from UT/western CO into parts of the Northwest/northern Rockies. The combination of relatively high-based convection and increasing low/midlevel flow will support a threat of at least isolated severe gusts across a broad region from the eastern Great Basin into parts of ID/MT. Steep lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could also support an isolated hail threat, where sufficient pre-convective buoyancy can be realized. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of western/central MT, due to increased confidence in sufficiently deep convection to support a severe-wind threat. Portions of the Marginal Risk may eventually need greater wind probabilities, if confidence increases in one or more corridors where a greater coverage of severe gusts will be possible. Some severe-wind threat could also evolve west of the current Marginal across parts of OR/WA/western ID, in closer proximity to the shortwave trough, but confidence is lower at this time due to very limited forecast buoyancy in this area. ...Parts of the High Plains... Moderate to locally strong buoyancy is forecast to develop this afternoon across much of the High Plains, along/east of a wavy surface trough extending between the surface lows across MT and the southern High Plains. However, large-scale ascent will likely remain rather nebulous across this region, and the details of storm development and coverage remain uncertain. While midlevel flow will be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther west, it will remain sufficient to support effective shear of 30+ kt, conditionally supporting organized convection. Any sustained storms that can develop and be maintained during the afternoon/evening would pose a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast AZ vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected across southeast AZ into adjacent southwest NM. A modest increase in midlevel flow could support somewhat more organized storms compared to Thursday. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear increasing into the 20-25 kt range will support a threat of localized strong/severe gusts and possibly some hail with the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EASTERN GREAT BASIN...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST AZ INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms with severe gusts and possibly some hail are possible across Montana, the Intermountain West and central Rockies, southeast Arizona, and the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will persist over the West today. A strong embedded shortwave trough and attendant midlevel jet maximum will move quickly northeastward from the Great Basin into the interior Northwest/northern Rockies through the day. A surface low is forecast to deepen across western MT through the day, in conjunction with the passage of the shortwave trough. A weaker surface low may move gradually northeastward across the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will extend from TX/OK into the central/northern High Plains, while a plume of monsoonal moisture will persist from the Southwest/southern Rockies into eastern parts of the Great Basin. ...Parts of UT/western CO into the interior Northwest and western/central MT... Stronger ascent related to the ejecting shortwave trough over the interior Northwest may remain somewhat displaced from better moisture/instability through the day. However, it will likely aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms across a broad region from UT/western CO into parts of the Northwest/northern Rockies. The combination of relatively high-based convection and increasing low/midlevel flow will support a threat of at least isolated severe gusts across a broad region from the eastern Great Basin into parts of ID/MT. Steep lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could also support an isolated hail threat, where sufficient pre-convective buoyancy can be realized. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of western/central MT, due to increased confidence in sufficiently deep convection to support a severe-wind threat. Portions of the Marginal Risk may eventually need greater wind probabilities, if confidence increases in one or more corridors where a greater coverage of severe gusts will be possible. Some severe-wind threat could also evolve west of the current Marginal across parts of OR/WA/western ID, in closer proximity to the shortwave trough, but confidence is lower at this time due to very limited forecast buoyancy in this area. ...Parts of the High Plains... Moderate to locally strong buoyancy is forecast to develop this afternoon across much of the High Plains, along/east of a wavy surface trough extending between the surface lows across MT and the southern High Plains. However, large-scale ascent will likely remain rather nebulous across this region, and the details of storm development and coverage remain uncertain. While midlevel flow will be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther west, it will remain sufficient to support effective shear of 30+ kt, conditionally supporting organized convection. Any sustained storms that can develop and be maintained during the afternoon/evening would pose a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast AZ vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected across southeast AZ into adjacent southwest NM. A modest increase in midlevel flow could support somewhat more organized storms compared to Thursday. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear increasing into the 20-25 kt range will support a threat of localized strong/severe gusts and possibly some hail with the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EASTERN GREAT BASIN...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST AZ INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms with severe gusts and possibly some hail are possible across Montana, the Intermountain West and central Rockies, southeast Arizona, and the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will persist over the West today. A strong embedded shortwave trough and attendant midlevel jet maximum will move quickly northeastward from the Great Basin into the interior Northwest/northern Rockies through the day. A surface low is forecast to deepen across western MT through the day, in conjunction with the passage of the shortwave trough. A weaker surface low may move gradually northeastward across the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will extend from TX/OK into the central/northern High Plains, while a plume of monsoonal moisture will persist from the Southwest/southern Rockies into eastern parts of the Great Basin. ...Parts of UT/western CO into the interior Northwest and western/central MT... Stronger ascent related to the ejecting shortwave trough over the interior Northwest may remain somewhat displaced from better moisture/instability through the day. However, it will likely aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms across a broad region from UT/western CO into parts of the Northwest/northern Rockies. The combination of relatively high-based convection and increasing low/midlevel flow will support a threat of at least isolated severe gusts across a broad region from the eastern Great Basin into parts of ID/MT. Steep lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could also support an isolated hail threat, where sufficient pre-convective buoyancy can be realized. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of western/central MT, due to increased confidence in sufficiently deep convection to support a severe-wind threat. Portions of the Marginal Risk may eventually need greater wind probabilities, if confidence increases in one or more corridors where a greater coverage of severe gusts will be possible. Some severe-wind threat could also evolve west of the current Marginal across parts of OR/WA/western ID, in closer proximity to the shortwave trough, but confidence is lower at this time due to very limited forecast buoyancy in this area. ...Parts of the High Plains... Moderate to locally strong buoyancy is forecast to develop this afternoon across much of the High Plains, along/east of a wavy surface trough extending between the surface lows across MT and the southern High Plains. However, large-scale ascent will likely remain rather nebulous across this region, and the details of storm development and coverage remain uncertain. While midlevel flow will be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther west, it will remain sufficient to support effective shear of 30+ kt, conditionally supporting organized convection. Any sustained storms that can develop and be maintained during the afternoon/evening would pose a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast AZ vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected across southeast AZ into adjacent southwest NM. A modest increase in midlevel flow could support somewhat more organized storms compared to Thursday. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear increasing into the 20-25 kt range will support a threat of localized strong/severe gusts and possibly some hail with the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EASTERN GREAT BASIN...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST AZ INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms with severe gusts and possibly some hail are possible across Montana, the Intermountain West and central Rockies, southeast Arizona, and the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will persist over the West today. A strong embedded shortwave trough and attendant midlevel jet maximum will move quickly northeastward from the Great Basin into the interior Northwest/northern Rockies through the day. A surface low is forecast to deepen across western MT through the day, in conjunction with the passage of the shortwave trough. A weaker surface low may move gradually northeastward across the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will extend from TX/OK into the central/northern High Plains, while a plume of monsoonal moisture will persist from the Southwest/southern Rockies into eastern parts of the Great Basin. ...Parts of UT/western CO into the interior Northwest and western/central MT... Stronger ascent related to the ejecting shortwave trough over the interior Northwest may remain somewhat displaced from better moisture/instability through the day. However, it will likely aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms across a broad region from UT/western CO into parts of the Northwest/northern Rockies. The combination of relatively high-based convection and increasing low/midlevel flow will support a threat of at least isolated severe gusts across a broad region from the eastern Great Basin into parts of ID/MT. Steep lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could also support an isolated hail threat, where sufficient pre-convective buoyancy can be realized. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of western/central MT, due to increased confidence in sufficiently deep convection to support a severe-wind threat. Portions of the Marginal Risk may eventually need greater wind probabilities, if confidence increases in one or more corridors where a greater coverage of severe gusts will be possible. Some severe-wind threat could also evolve west of the current Marginal across parts of OR/WA/western ID, in closer proximity to the shortwave trough, but confidence is lower at this time due to very limited forecast buoyancy in this area. ...Parts of the High Plains... Moderate to locally strong buoyancy is forecast to develop this afternoon across much of the High Plains, along/east of a wavy surface trough extending between the surface lows across MT and the southern High Plains. However, large-scale ascent will likely remain rather nebulous across this region, and the details of storm development and coverage remain uncertain. While midlevel flow will be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther west, it will remain sufficient to support effective shear of 30+ kt, conditionally supporting organized convection. Any sustained storms that can develop and be maintained during the afternoon/evening would pose a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast AZ vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected across southeast AZ into adjacent southwest NM. A modest increase in midlevel flow could support somewhat more organized storms compared to Thursday. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear increasing into the 20-25 kt range will support a threat of localized strong/severe gusts and possibly some hail with the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230526
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the west of its center. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while moving
westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230515
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Drought is harming the trees and creating fuel for potential wildfires. Epidemic levels of southern pine beetles were infesting state forests. “The drought that we are currently experiencing is causing a lot of insect and disease problems in the forest,” according to an Alabama Forestry Commission employee. “They are causing large areas of pines to die. When those pines die and dry out, they become more fuel for wildfires.” WAFF TV (Huntsville, Ala.), Aug 22, 2024 The Alabama Forestry Commission has found nearly 5,000 southern pine beetle spots across the state, with more sites emerging as the summer progresses. The beetles kill an average of 191 trees per site. Because timber is important to Alabama’s economy, the beetles pose a significant threat. The worst infestations were in and around Bankhead National Forest and the Oakmulgee District of the Talladega National Forest. WAFF TV (Huntsville, Ala.), Aug 22, 2024

WW 0644 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S GLD TO 25 E GLD TO 50 SSW MCK. ..SPC..08/23/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC071-109-193-203-230440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY LOGAN THOMAS WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1975 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 644... FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1975 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0844 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644... Valid 230144Z - 230345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644 continues. SUMMARY...Wind/hail threat will spread across eastern portions of ww644 over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Scattered high-based convection that initiated over the higher terrain of central/southern CO has matured into an MCS that is now advancing into northwest KS. Over the last hour or so, a weak MCV appears to have developed which is now just south of AKO, supporting the overall organization of this complex. 1km AGL southeasterly inflow across western KS is on the order of 25-30kt, which will encourage propagation across at least the western portions of the main instability corridor. 00z soundings from the central High Plains exhibit substantial CINH, and further boundary-layer stabilization is expected as surface temperatures cool. Given the organization of this complex, further propagation is likely into the eastern-most portions of the watch; however, updraft intensities have likely peaked and gradual weakening can be expected by 03-04z. Until then, damaging winds will likely be the primary risk. ..Darrow.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40200372 40500082 38750082 38450370 40200372 Read more

WW 644 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 222325Z - 230500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 644 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western Kansas Far Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to congeal into a cluster this evening while moving eastward across eastern Colorado into western Kansas, with mainly a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph. Isolated gusts up to 75 mph appear possible, along with occasional large hail around 1-1.75 inches in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles north northwest of Limon CO to 50 miles east northeast of Goodland KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Gleason Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2024 02:36:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2024 03:29:12 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 230234 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 Gilma's satellite presentation has degraded this evening, with the eye becoming cloud filled and more irregularly shaped. Dvorak Current Intensity estimates remain unchanged from TAFB (6.0/115 kt) and SAB (5.5/102 kt) from earlier today, but most objective numbers from UW-CIMSS now range between 95 and 105 kt. 105 kt is set as the initial intensity as a blend of these numbers and the general degradation of the eye definition. Gilma's forward speed is now down to 5 kt toward the west-northwest. A deep-layer trough over the U.S. West Coast is expected to gradually move eastward, allowing mid-level high pressure to build offshore. This should cause Gilma to very gradually accelerate toward the west-northwest and then west through the entire 5-day forecast period. There is high confidence in Gilma's forecast track given a tightly packed guidance suite, and the updated NHC track prediction has only been pushed northward a shade, following the latest consensus trends. On the current forecast track, Gilma would move into the central Pacific basin late Monday. The ocean heat content near Gilma is only about 8 units (for reference, ocean heat content in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico exceeds 100 units). Therefore, it is likely that the hurricane's very slow motion is upwelling cold water from below, which may be contributing to the recent degradation in the satellite appearance. Cold water upwelling will probably continue for the next couple of days while Gilma's forward speed remains 8 kt or less, and despite a relatively low-shear environment, gradual weakening is forecast to continue through the entire forecast period. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted downward, but it still lies near the northern bound of the guidance suite. Global model guidance suggests that the cool waters, a drier environment, and increased shear may cause Gilma to struggle to maintain deep convection by early next week, and the new forecast now shows the cyclone becoming post tropical by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 17.3N 125.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 17.6N 126.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 18.0N 128.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 18.4N 129.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 18.8N 131.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 19.0N 133.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 19.2N 135.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 19.8N 139.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 20.5N 145.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 894 FOPZ12 KNHC 230233 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 130W 34 1 8( 9) 49(58) 12(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) 20N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 64(73) 4(77) X(77) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 4(39) X(39) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) 6(42) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 874 WTPZ32 KNHC 230233 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 ...GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE INTO FRIDAY BUT MORE WEAKENING LIES AHEAD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 125.5W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1945 MI...3125 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 125.5 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). Gradual acceleration toward the west-northwest and then west is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through much of the upcoming weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE INTO FRIDAY BUT MORE WEAKENING LIES AHEAD... As of 5:00 PM HST Thu Aug 22 the center of Gilma was located near 17.3, -125.5 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.