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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the central/eastern CONUS upper troughing on Thursday, progressing cyclonically from the central Plains through the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast States and southern Appalachians. Another shortwave trough is expected to drop southeastward through the Upper Midwest early Friday morning. Progression of these waves will help maintain upper troughing east of the Rockies through Friday morning. Farther west, expansive upper ridging will gradually shift eastward throughout the day, ending the period extended from northern Mexico into western British Columbia. A strong shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast, but is expected to remain offshore throughout the period. The surface pattern is expected to feature ridging centered over the TN Valley, resulting in offshore flow across the majority of the CONUS. Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the Plains, helping to reinforce the cold and dry conditions already in place. Westerly surface winds are forecast across the Gulf of Mexico, but the development of a weak surface low just off the south TX coast should preclude any low-level moisture from advecting inland. Consequently, any thunderstorms activity should stay over the western Gulf. Dry and stable conditions will prevent thunderstorm development elsewhere. ..Mosier.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today near the coast of New England. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough, and an associated surface low, will move across New England today. Isolated thunderstorms may form ahead of the trough, as bands of strong large-scale ascent move northeastward across the region. Instability will be minimal, and a severe threat is not expected. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today near the coast of New England. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough, and an associated surface low, will move across New England today. Isolated thunderstorms may form ahead of the trough, as bands of strong large-scale ascent move northeastward across the region. Instability will be minimal, and a severe threat is not expected. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today near the coast of New England. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough, and an associated surface low, will move across New England today. Isolated thunderstorms may form ahead of the trough, as bands of strong large-scale ascent move northeastward across the region. Instability will be minimal, and a severe threat is not expected. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today near the coast of New England. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough, and an associated surface low, will move across New England today. Isolated thunderstorms may form ahead of the trough, as bands of strong large-scale ascent move northeastward across the region. Instability will be minimal, and a severe threat is not expected. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today near the coast of New England. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough, and an associated surface low, will move across New England today. Isolated thunderstorms may form ahead of the trough, as bands of strong large-scale ascent move northeastward across the region. Instability will be minimal, and a severe threat is not expected. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today near the coast of New England. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough, and an associated surface low, will move across New England today. Isolated thunderstorms may form ahead of the trough, as bands of strong large-scale ascent move northeastward across the region. Instability will be minimal, and a severe threat is not expected. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts, hail and a brief tornado will be possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic including New Jersey and southern Long Island early this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic/New Jersey/Southern Long Island... The latest water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave trough moving northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachian Mountains. At the surface, a trough is located from Maryland extending southwestward into the western Carolinas, with a warm front analyzed from the Delmarva eastward into the western Atlantic. Near the warm front, the latest RAP has an axis of instability, with MLCAPE over land estimated to be in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The latest radar imagery shows the remnants of a bowing line segment near the coast of southern New Jersey. The HRRR suggests additional thunderstorms may develop northward along the coast of New Jersey to near southern Long Island over the next couple of hours, where instability is forecast to increase. For this reason, the threat for marginally severe gusts and hail is expected to continue. A brief tornado will also be possible if a bowing segment can become organized...reference MCD 2324. Further south across north-central North Carolina, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the surface trough ahead of an axis of weak instability. These storms are forecast to gradually weaken as they move eastward into northeastern North Carolina this evening. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts, hail and a brief tornado will be possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic including New Jersey and southern Long Island early this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic/New Jersey/Southern Long Island... The latest water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave trough moving northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachian Mountains. At the surface, a trough is located from Maryland extending southwestward into the western Carolinas, with a warm front analyzed from the Delmarva eastward into the western Atlantic. Near the warm front, the latest RAP has an axis of instability, with MLCAPE over land estimated to be in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The latest radar imagery shows the remnants of a bowing line segment near the coast of southern New Jersey. The HRRR suggests additional thunderstorms may develop northward along the coast of New Jersey to near southern Long Island over the next couple of hours, where instability is forecast to increase. For this reason, the threat for marginally severe gusts and hail is expected to continue. A brief tornado will also be possible if a bowing segment can become organized...reference MCD 2324. Further south across north-central North Carolina, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the surface trough ahead of an axis of weak instability. These storms are forecast to gradually weaken as they move eastward into northeastern North Carolina this evening. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts, hail and a brief tornado will be possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic including New Jersey and southern Long Island early this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic/New Jersey/Southern Long Island... The latest water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave trough moving northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachian Mountains. At the surface, a trough is located from Maryland extending southwestward into the western Carolinas, with a warm front analyzed from the Delmarva eastward into the western Atlantic. Near the warm front, the latest RAP has an axis of instability, with MLCAPE over land estimated to be in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The latest radar imagery shows the remnants of a bowing line segment near the coast of southern New Jersey. The HRRR suggests additional thunderstorms may develop northward along the coast of New Jersey to near southern Long Island over the next couple of hours, where instability is forecast to increase. For this reason, the threat for marginally severe gusts and hail is expected to continue. A brief tornado will also be possible if a bowing segment can become organized...reference MCD 2324. Further south across north-central North Carolina, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the surface trough ahead of an axis of weak instability. These storms are forecast to gradually weaken as they move eastward into northeastern North Carolina this evening. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts, hail and a brief tornado will be possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic including New Jersey and southern Long Island early this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic/New Jersey/Southern Long Island... The latest water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave trough moving northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachian Mountains. At the surface, a trough is located from Maryland extending southwestward into the western Carolinas, with a warm front analyzed from the Delmarva eastward into the western Atlantic. Near the warm front, the latest RAP has an axis of instability, with MLCAPE over land estimated to be in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The latest radar imagery shows the remnants of a bowing line segment near the coast of southern New Jersey. The HRRR suggests additional thunderstorms may develop northward along the coast of New Jersey to near southern Long Island over the next couple of hours, where instability is forecast to increase. For this reason, the threat for marginally severe gusts and hail is expected to continue. A brief tornado will also be possible if a bowing segment can become organized...reference MCD 2324. Further south across north-central North Carolina, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the surface trough ahead of an axis of weak instability. These storms are forecast to gradually weaken as they move eastward into northeastern North Carolina this evening. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts, hail and a brief tornado will be possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic including New Jersey and southern Long Island early this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic/New Jersey/Southern Long Island... The latest water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave trough moving northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachian Mountains. At the surface, a trough is located from Maryland extending southwestward into the western Carolinas, with a warm front analyzed from the Delmarva eastward into the western Atlantic. Near the warm front, the latest RAP has an axis of instability, with MLCAPE over land estimated to be in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The latest radar imagery shows the remnants of a bowing line segment near the coast of southern New Jersey. The HRRR suggests additional thunderstorms may develop northward along the coast of New Jersey to near southern Long Island over the next couple of hours, where instability is forecast to increase. For this reason, the threat for marginally severe gusts and hail is expected to continue. A brief tornado will also be possible if a bowing segment can become organized...reference MCD 2324. Further south across north-central North Carolina, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the surface trough ahead of an axis of weak instability. These storms are forecast to gradually weaken as they move eastward into northeastern North Carolina this evening. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 31 23:09:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 31 23:09:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper-level ridge will traverse the western CONUS Day 3/Thursday, and then move over the Rockies Day 4/Friday, while troughing persists over the eastern half of CONUS. A Pacific trough will likely move onshore by early Day 5/Saturday, and then into the Southern Plains late this weekend. ...Day 3/Thursday Southern CA... One more night of localized Santa Ana winds will remain possible across the Transverse Ranges. The most likely areas to experience a few hours of near critical RH/wind combinations will be on the seaward facing slopes and valleys. For now, confidence remains too low to justify an increase to 70% probabilities since only very localized critical relative humidity is anticipated. This will be monitored closely in subsequent forecasts. ...Day 5-6 Saturday-Sunday High Plains of NM/Southern Plains... Increasing mid level flow associated with a shortwave trough moving into the Southern Plains this weekend, along with accompanying pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies, will aid in breezy conditions developing from NM eastward into the Southern Plains. Dry southerly flow could develop across the TX Panhandle Day 5 Saturday before low level moisture begins to increase from southern TX northward to near OK Day 6 Sunday. Further west, downslope westerly flow should persist from NM into west TX. If confidence in the timing and location of the shortwave trough were slightly better, low critical probabilities would have been introduced for at least west TX Day 6 Sunday. ..Barnes.. 12/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper-level ridge will traverse the western CONUS Day 3/Thursday, and then move over the Rockies Day 4/Friday, while troughing persists over the eastern half of CONUS. A Pacific trough will likely move onshore by early Day 5/Saturday, and then into the Southern Plains late this weekend. ...Day 3/Thursday Southern CA... One more night of localized Santa Ana winds will remain possible across the Transverse Ranges. The most likely areas to experience a few hours of near critical RH/wind combinations will be on the seaward facing slopes and valleys. For now, confidence remains too low to justify an increase to 70% probabilities since only very localized critical relative humidity is anticipated. This will be monitored closely in subsequent forecasts. ...Day 5-6 Saturday-Sunday High Plains of NM/Southern Plains... Increasing mid level flow associated with a shortwave trough moving into the Southern Plains this weekend, along with accompanying pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies, will aid in breezy conditions developing from NM eastward into the Southern Plains. Dry southerly flow could develop across the TX Panhandle Day 5 Saturday before low level moisture begins to increase from southern TX northward to near OK Day 6 Sunday. Further west, downslope westerly flow should persist from NM into west TX. If confidence in the timing and location of the shortwave trough were slightly better, low critical probabilities would have been introduced for at least west TX Day 6 Sunday. ..Barnes.. 12/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2323 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Virginia into the Delmarva Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312104Z - 312300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A developing cluster of thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for small hail and perhaps increasing potential for scattered surface gusts approaching severe limits through 6-7 PM EST. DISCUSSION...Despite rather limited destabilization (including mixed-layer CAPE generally on the order of 250 J/kg), forcing for ascent, near a weak developing low within surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge, has provided support for a developing quasi-linear cluster of thunderstorms east-south of the Charlottesville and Lynchburg vicinities. Shear through the relatively shallow convective layer is strong and contributing convective organization, with sufficient low-level moistening and mid-level cooling to provide support for small to perhaps marginally severe hail in the stronger updrafts. As activity develops east-northeastward with the forcing for ascent during the next few hours, it is possible that modest boundary-layer temperature and dew point spreads will contribute to sufficient sub-cloud evaporative cooling and melting to support a gradual increase in potential for strong surface gusts. Given ambient mean flow in the lowest 3 km or so above ground level on the order of 35-40 kt, a couple of gusts may approach or briefly exceed severe limits. ..Kerr/Hart.. 12/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37657834 38987668 38817532 37397668 36687753 36917872 37657834 Read more

MD 2322 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MARYLAND/PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2322 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Areas affected...parts of southwestern Virginia...eastern West Virginia and adjacent portions of Maryland/Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311935Z - 312130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...At least in the near term, the potential for strong surface gusts is expected to diminish with lingering convection spreading into and across the Allegheny Mountains toward the Blue Ridge through 4-5 PM EDT. DISCUSSION...Convectively enhanced surface gusts have increased a bit in number and strength along the western slopes of the Allegheny Mountains. This is where low-level lapse rates have become rather steep in response to continuing insolation and mid-level cooling. Across the higher terrain into the eastern slopes of the Allegheny mountains and Blue Ridge, the boundary-layer remains cooler and more stable to both updrafts and downward mixing of momentum. Although this could be modified somewhat by the mid-level cooling, convection and potential for strong surface gusts seem likely to diminish during the next hour or two as forcing for ascent spreads eastward. ..Kerr/Hart.. 12/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX... LAT...LON 38278127 39637991 39277902 37678019 36628127 36968245 38278127 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a brief tornado remain possible this afternoon from the central Appalachians into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The western edge of the Marginal Risk area has been removed from portions of eastern KY and western WV, as the aforementioned upper trough has moved eastward. Weak buoyancy (200-400 J/kg MUCAPE) is present across parts of WV and VA where clear skies have allowed surface temperatures to warm to near 60 F beneath the mid-level cold core. Despite very minimal surface moisture (dewpoints in the 30 to 40s F) steep mid and low-level lapse rates (7-7.5 C/km) will continue to allow for 35-50 kt of 0-3 km flow to mix down to the surface. Several gusts of 45+ kt have been observed with low topped convective bands ahead of and along the cold front. As these storms move eastward, they will continue to pose a risk for damaging winds through the afternoon. Isolated small hail and perhaps a brief tornado also remain possible with any stronger rotating cells, given relatively strong low-level speed shear. See the prior discussion and MCD 2322 for more info. ..Lyons.. 12/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024/ ...KY to the Mid Atlantic Region... A potent, negatively-tilted shortwave trough will move from the upper OH Valley into NY/PA today, with an associated 80-100 knot mid-level speed max nosing across the Carolinas. Strong large-scale forcing and low-level warm advection is resulting in sufficient lift for the development of multiple lines/clusters of low-topped convection (some with lightning) across parts of OH/KY/TN/WV. This activity will move quickly eastward through the day across the central Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic region this afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show cold mid-level temperatures, resulting in steep lapse rates aloft. This will continue to support a threat of thunderstorms through tonight. Low-level moisture is quite limited, and forecast CAPE values are below 500 J/kg. Nevertheless, low and mid-level wind fields are very strong, which could easily mix down within any more-organized convection. Low-level shear is also strong enough to support updraft rotation (as already noted in a few cells this morning in KY) which could pose a risk of a brief tornado or occasional hail through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a brief tornado remain possible this afternoon from the central Appalachians into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The western edge of the Marginal Risk area has been removed from portions of eastern KY and western WV, as the aforementioned upper trough has moved eastward. Weak buoyancy (200-400 J/kg MUCAPE) is present across parts of WV and VA where clear skies have allowed surface temperatures to warm to near 60 F beneath the mid-level cold core. Despite very minimal surface moisture (dewpoints in the 30 to 40s F) steep mid and low-level lapse rates (7-7.5 C/km) will continue to allow for 35-50 kt of 0-3 km flow to mix down to the surface. Several gusts of 45+ kt have been observed with low topped convective bands ahead of and along the cold front. As these storms move eastward, they will continue to pose a risk for damaging winds through the afternoon. Isolated small hail and perhaps a brief tornado also remain possible with any stronger rotating cells, given relatively strong low-level speed shear. See the prior discussion and MCD 2322 for more info. ..Lyons.. 12/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024/ ...KY to the Mid Atlantic Region... A potent, negatively-tilted shortwave trough will move from the upper OH Valley into NY/PA today, with an associated 80-100 knot mid-level speed max nosing across the Carolinas. Strong large-scale forcing and low-level warm advection is resulting in sufficient lift for the development of multiple lines/clusters of low-topped convection (some with lightning) across parts of OH/KY/TN/WV. This activity will move quickly eastward through the day across the central Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic region this afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show cold mid-level temperatures, resulting in steep lapse rates aloft. This will continue to support a threat of thunderstorms through tonight. Low-level moisture is quite limited, and forecast CAPE values are below 500 J/kg. Nevertheless, low and mid-level wind fields are very strong, which could easily mix down within any more-organized convection. Low-level shear is also strong enough to support updraft rotation (as already noted in a few cells this morning in KY) which could pose a risk of a brief tornado or occasional hail through the period. Read more