Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to persist through midweek this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains through D4/Thur. Winds will then slowly weaken through the remainder of the week. High pressure redevelops this weekend and additional fire-weather concerns are possible. ...Southern CA... Strong offshore winds are expected to be ongoing at the start of the forecast period D3/Wed morning. Sustained 25-40 mph with gusts of 45-70 mph and single digit RH will likely support extreme fire danger across portions of the western LA Basin and Transverse ranges through noon. Critical fire-weather conditions will likely continue into D3/Wed afternoon with strong winds and low RH. Offshore gradients will gradually weaken into the evening as the upper low shifts southeastward. Upper-level flow is also forecast to slowly weaken into early D4/Thursday. The winds aloft are forecast to become more southeasterly as they weaken. This shift should favor less alignment with typical Santa Ana corridors in the LA Basin. Still, elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D4/Thurs before winds weaken below 25 mph. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into week 2, as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. This could support another prolonged period of offshore flow and heightened fire-weather concerns. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds later in the period is low. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to persist through midweek this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains through D4/Thur. Winds will then slowly weaken through the remainder of the week. High pressure redevelops this weekend and additional fire-weather concerns are possible. ...Southern CA... Strong offshore winds are expected to be ongoing at the start of the forecast period D3/Wed morning. Sustained 25-40 mph with gusts of 45-70 mph and single digit RH will likely support extreme fire danger across portions of the western LA Basin and Transverse ranges through noon. Critical fire-weather conditions will likely continue into D3/Wed afternoon with strong winds and low RH. Offshore gradients will gradually weaken into the evening as the upper low shifts southeastward. Upper-level flow is also forecast to slowly weaken into early D4/Thursday. The winds aloft are forecast to become more southeasterly as they weaken. This shift should favor less alignment with typical Santa Ana corridors in the LA Basin. Still, elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D4/Thurs before winds weaken below 25 mph. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into week 2, as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. This could support another prolonged period of offshore flow and heightened fire-weather concerns. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds later in the period is low. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to persist through midweek this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains through D4/Thur. Winds will then slowly weaken through the remainder of the week. High pressure redevelops this weekend and additional fire-weather concerns are possible. ...Southern CA... Strong offshore winds are expected to be ongoing at the start of the forecast period D3/Wed morning. Sustained 25-40 mph with gusts of 45-70 mph and single digit RH will likely support extreme fire danger across portions of the western LA Basin and Transverse ranges through noon. Critical fire-weather conditions will likely continue into D3/Wed afternoon with strong winds and low RH. Offshore gradients will gradually weaken into the evening as the upper low shifts southeastward. Upper-level flow is also forecast to slowly weaken into early D4/Thursday. The winds aloft are forecast to become more southeasterly as they weaken. This shift should favor less alignment with typical Santa Ana corridors in the LA Basin. Still, elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D4/Thurs before winds weaken below 25 mph. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into week 2, as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. This could support another prolonged period of offshore flow and heightened fire-weather concerns. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds later in the period is low. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to persist through midweek this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains through D4/Thur. Winds will then slowly weaken through the remainder of the week. High pressure redevelops this weekend and additional fire-weather concerns are possible. ...Southern CA... Strong offshore winds are expected to be ongoing at the start of the forecast period D3/Wed morning. Sustained 25-40 mph with gusts of 45-70 mph and single digit RH will likely support extreme fire danger across portions of the western LA Basin and Transverse ranges through noon. Critical fire-weather conditions will likely continue into D3/Wed afternoon with strong winds and low RH. Offshore gradients will gradually weaken into the evening as the upper low shifts southeastward. Upper-level flow is also forecast to slowly weaken into early D4/Thursday. The winds aloft are forecast to become more southeasterly as they weaken. This shift should favor less alignment with typical Santa Ana corridors in the LA Basin. Still, elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D4/Thurs before winds weaken below 25 mph. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into week 2, as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. This could support another prolonged period of offshore flow and heightened fire-weather concerns. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds later in the period is low. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

MD 0035 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO FAR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0035 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Areas affected...south-central New York into far northern Pennsylvania Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 131845Z - 132045Z SUMMARY...Snow squall activity will be possible through the afternoon diminishing through the evening. DISCUSSION...Radar across southern New York state this afternoon shows several snow showers moving eastward along a surface cold front. A few of these showers have had brief increase in intensity, with visibility reductions to 1/2 mile reported. The thermal environment is characterized by somewhat poor low-level lapse rates, owing to cloud cover across the region. However, surface objective analysis does indicated some 2-6 AGL lapse rates around 7 C/km right along the front. The occasional snow squall will be possible, with sudden visibility reductions to less than 1/4 miles and gusty winds. This threat will subside with passage of the front, and as sunset approaches with loss of daytime heating. ..Thornton.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 41797556 41917594 42007578 42267538 42667507 43117482 43217453 43177422 42897405 42717413 42367439 42097457 41877496 41797556 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong sustained winds of 30-40 mph, with locally damaging wind gusts of 55-75 mph are likely overnight D1/Monday night into D2/Tuesday. Winds should peak through the morning and early afternoon D2/Tuesday across the Santa Ana corridors of Ventura and western LA County, and farther south across southern CA. Very dry surface conditions, with RH values of 8-10% are also expected. The rare combination of extremely low humidity and very strong winds will support extremely critical fire-weather conditions much of D2/Tuesday. Critical fire-weather conditions are also possible across parts of the Santa Ynez mountains and southern Coastal Ranges. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue overnight into D3/Wednesday. However, winds should slowly weaken as upper-level support diminishes. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong sustained winds of 30-40 mph, with locally damaging wind gusts of 55-75 mph are likely overnight D1/Monday night into D2/Tuesday. Winds should peak through the morning and early afternoon D2/Tuesday across the Santa Ana corridors of Ventura and western LA County, and farther south across southern CA. Very dry surface conditions, with RH values of 8-10% are also expected. The rare combination of extremely low humidity and very strong winds will support extremely critical fire-weather conditions much of D2/Tuesday. Critical fire-weather conditions are also possible across parts of the Santa Ynez mountains and southern Coastal Ranges. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue overnight into D3/Wednesday. However, winds should slowly weaken as upper-level support diminishes. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong sustained winds of 30-40 mph, with locally damaging wind gusts of 55-75 mph are likely overnight D1/Monday night into D2/Tuesday. Winds should peak through the morning and early afternoon D2/Tuesday across the Santa Ana corridors of Ventura and western LA County, and farther south across southern CA. Very dry surface conditions, with RH values of 8-10% are also expected. The rare combination of extremely low humidity and very strong winds will support extremely critical fire-weather conditions much of D2/Tuesday. Critical fire-weather conditions are also possible across parts of the Santa Ynez mountains and southern Coastal Ranges. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue overnight into D3/Wednesday. However, winds should slowly weaken as upper-level support diminishes. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong sustained winds of 30-40 mph, with locally damaging wind gusts of 55-75 mph are likely overnight D1/Monday night into D2/Tuesday. Winds should peak through the morning and early afternoon D2/Tuesday across the Santa Ana corridors of Ventura and western LA County, and farther south across southern CA. Very dry surface conditions, with RH values of 8-10% are also expected. The rare combination of extremely low humidity and very strong winds will support extremely critical fire-weather conditions much of D2/Tuesday. Critical fire-weather conditions are also possible across parts of the Santa Ynez mountains and southern Coastal Ranges. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue overnight into D3/Wednesday. However, winds should slowly weaken as upper-level support diminishes. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong sustained winds of 30-40 mph, with locally damaging wind gusts of 55-75 mph are likely overnight D1/Monday night into D2/Tuesday. Winds should peak through the morning and early afternoon D2/Tuesday across the Santa Ana corridors of Ventura and western LA County, and farther south across southern CA. Very dry surface conditions, with RH values of 8-10% are also expected. The rare combination of extremely low humidity and very strong winds will support extremely critical fire-weather conditions much of D2/Tuesday. Critical fire-weather conditions are also possible across parts of the Santa Ynez mountains and southern Coastal Ranges. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue overnight into D3/Wednesday. However, winds should slowly weaken as upper-level support diminishes. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong sustained winds of 30-40 mph, with locally damaging wind gusts of 55-75 mph are likely overnight D1/Monday night into D2/Tuesday. Winds should peak through the morning and early afternoon D2/Tuesday across the Santa Ana corridors of Ventura and western LA County, and farther south across southern CA. Very dry surface conditions, with RH values of 8-10% are also expected. The rare combination of extremely low humidity and very strong winds will support extremely critical fire-weather conditions much of D2/Tuesday. Critical fire-weather conditions are also possible across parts of the Santa Ynez mountains and southern Coastal Ranges. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue overnight into D3/Wednesday. However, winds should slowly weaken as upper-level support diminishes. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong sustained winds of 30-40 mph, with locally damaging wind gusts of 55-75 mph are likely overnight D1/Monday night into D2/Tuesday. Winds should peak through the morning and early afternoon D2/Tuesday across the Santa Ana corridors of Ventura and western LA County, and farther south across southern CA. Very dry surface conditions, with RH values of 8-10% are also expected. The rare combination of extremely low humidity and very strong winds will support extremely critical fire-weather conditions much of D2/Tuesday. Critical fire-weather conditions are also possible across parts of the Santa Ynez mountains and southern Coastal Ranges. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue overnight into D3/Wednesday. However, winds should slowly weaken as upper-level support diminishes. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more