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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Westerly flow across much of the CONUS will become more amplified as a shortwave trough deepens and develops east from the northern/central Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity on Tuesday. The southwest extent of the upper trough will lag, remaining over the Southern Rockies/Four Corners vicinity. Stronger mid/upper level southwesterly flow associated with the deepening trough will extend from OK/KS to the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front from the Mid-South vicinity into central TX will stall or even retreat northward. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 50s and 60s dewpoints ahead of the front across southern TX toward the ArkLaTex. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm are possible in this warm-advection regime amid modest elevated instability. However, stronger height falls will remain displaced to the north, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous across the warm sector. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate weak vertical shear and poor low-level lapse rates. As such, severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low. ..Leitman.. 12/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Westerly flow across much of the CONUS will become more amplified as a shortwave trough deepens and develops east from the northern/central Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity on Tuesday. The southwest extent of the upper trough will lag, remaining over the Southern Rockies/Four Corners vicinity. Stronger mid/upper level southwesterly flow associated with the deepening trough will extend from OK/KS to the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front from the Mid-South vicinity into central TX will stall or even retreat northward. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 50s and 60s dewpoints ahead of the front across southern TX toward the ArkLaTex. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm are possible in this warm-advection regime amid modest elevated instability. However, stronger height falls will remain displaced to the north, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous across the warm sector. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate weak vertical shear and poor low-level lapse rates. As such, severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low. ..Leitman.. 12/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Westerly flow across much of the CONUS will become more amplified as a shortwave trough deepens and develops east from the northern/central Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity on Tuesday. The southwest extent of the upper trough will lag, remaining over the Southern Rockies/Four Corners vicinity. Stronger mid/upper level southwesterly flow associated with the deepening trough will extend from OK/KS to the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front from the Mid-South vicinity into central TX will stall or even retreat northward. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 50s and 60s dewpoints ahead of the front across southern TX toward the ArkLaTex. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm are possible in this warm-advection regime amid modest elevated instability. However, stronger height falls will remain displaced to the north, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous across the warm sector. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate weak vertical shear and poor low-level lapse rates. As such, severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low. ..Leitman.. 12/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Westerly flow across much of the CONUS will become more amplified as a shortwave trough deepens and develops east from the northern/central Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity on Tuesday. The southwest extent of the upper trough will lag, remaining over the Southern Rockies/Four Corners vicinity. Stronger mid/upper level southwesterly flow associated with the deepening trough will extend from OK/KS to the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front from the Mid-South vicinity into central TX will stall or even retreat northward. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 50s and 60s dewpoints ahead of the front across southern TX toward the ArkLaTex. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm are possible in this warm-advection regime amid modest elevated instability. However, stronger height falls will remain displaced to the north, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous across the warm sector. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate weak vertical shear and poor low-level lapse rates. As such, severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low. ..Leitman.. 12/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A progressive and mostly zonal mid-level flow pattern is expected over the CONUS D2/Mon. A pronounced shortwave trough within the stronger westerly flow will move quickly eastward over the northern third of the CONUS. At the surface, cyclone associated with the mid-level trough will move along the US/Canadian border, trailing a cold front over the central US. In the wake of the front, a much colder air mass and modest high pressure are likely over the western 2/3rds of the US. This should keep winds relatively light and RH values elevated. Additionally precipitation ahead of the front and from the prior day will augment fuels, such that little or no fire-weather risk is expected. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A progressive and mostly zonal mid-level flow pattern is expected over the CONUS D2/Mon. A pronounced shortwave trough within the stronger westerly flow will move quickly eastward over the northern third of the CONUS. At the surface, cyclone associated with the mid-level trough will move along the US/Canadian border, trailing a cold front over the central US. In the wake of the front, a much colder air mass and modest high pressure are likely over the western 2/3rds of the US. This should keep winds relatively light and RH values elevated. Additionally precipitation ahead of the front and from the prior day will augment fuels, such that little or no fire-weather risk is expected. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A progressive and mostly zonal mid-level flow pattern is expected over the CONUS D2/Mon. A pronounced shortwave trough within the stronger westerly flow will move quickly eastward over the northern third of the CONUS. At the surface, cyclone associated with the mid-level trough will move along the US/Canadian border, trailing a cold front over the central US. In the wake of the front, a much colder air mass and modest high pressure are likely over the western 2/3rds of the US. This should keep winds relatively light and RH values elevated. Additionally precipitation ahead of the front and from the prior day will augment fuels, such that little or no fire-weather risk is expected. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A progressive and mostly zonal mid-level flow pattern is expected over the CONUS D2/Mon. A pronounced shortwave trough within the stronger westerly flow will move quickly eastward over the northern third of the CONUS. At the surface, cyclone associated with the mid-level trough will move along the US/Canadian border, trailing a cold front over the central US. In the wake of the front, a much colder air mass and modest high pressure are likely over the western 2/3rds of the US. This should keep winds relatively light and RH values elevated. Additionally precipitation ahead of the front and from the prior day will augment fuels, such that little or no fire-weather risk is expected. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A progressive and mostly zonal mid-level flow pattern is expected over the CONUS D2/Mon. A pronounced shortwave trough within the stronger westerly flow will move quickly eastward over the northern third of the CONUS. At the surface, cyclone associated with the mid-level trough will move along the US/Canadian border, trailing a cold front over the central US. In the wake of the front, a much colder air mass and modest high pressure are likely over the western 2/3rds of the US. This should keep winds relatively light and RH values elevated. Additionally precipitation ahead of the front and from the prior day will augment fuels, such that little or no fire-weather risk is expected. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A progressive and mostly zonal mid-level flow pattern is expected over the CONUS D2/Mon. A pronounced shortwave trough within the stronger westerly flow will move quickly eastward over the northern third of the CONUS. At the surface, cyclone associated with the mid-level trough will move along the US/Canadian border, trailing a cold front over the central US. In the wake of the front, a much colder air mass and modest high pressure are likely over the western 2/3rds of the US. This should keep winds relatively light and RH values elevated. Additionally precipitation ahead of the front and from the prior day will augment fuels, such that little or no fire-weather risk is expected. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Embedded within stronger quasi-zonal flow aloft, a shortwave trough is forecast to rapidly eject eastward from the Intermoutnain West across the central and northern Rockies early this morning. As lift from the trough shifts east, a lee low and trailing surface trough will quickly deepen across parts of the High Plains, while a cold front will approach from the interior West. The strong mid-level flow and lee low will support downslope winds across portions of the central High Plains, and to a lesser degree across eastern NM and far West TX. These strong winds of 20-30 mph may briefly overlap with areas of moderately low RH this afternoon. While there is some risk, fire-weather concerns are not expected to be widespread, given the brief nature of the strong winds and lower RH, as well as the passage of the cold front later this afternoon and into the evening. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Embedded within stronger quasi-zonal flow aloft, a shortwave trough is forecast to rapidly eject eastward from the Intermoutnain West across the central and northern Rockies early this morning. As lift from the trough shifts east, a lee low and trailing surface trough will quickly deepen across parts of the High Plains, while a cold front will approach from the interior West. The strong mid-level flow and lee low will support downslope winds across portions of the central High Plains, and to a lesser degree across eastern NM and far West TX. These strong winds of 20-30 mph may briefly overlap with areas of moderately low RH this afternoon. While there is some risk, fire-weather concerns are not expected to be widespread, given the brief nature of the strong winds and lower RH, as well as the passage of the cold front later this afternoon and into the evening. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Embedded within stronger quasi-zonal flow aloft, a shortwave trough is forecast to rapidly eject eastward from the Intermoutnain West across the central and northern Rockies early this morning. As lift from the trough shifts east, a lee low and trailing surface trough will quickly deepen across parts of the High Plains, while a cold front will approach from the interior West. The strong mid-level flow and lee low will support downslope winds across portions of the central High Plains, and to a lesser degree across eastern NM and far West TX. These strong winds of 20-30 mph may briefly overlap with areas of moderately low RH this afternoon. While there is some risk, fire-weather concerns are not expected to be widespread, given the brief nature of the strong winds and lower RH, as well as the passage of the cold front later this afternoon and into the evening. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Embedded within stronger quasi-zonal flow aloft, a shortwave trough is forecast to rapidly eject eastward from the Intermoutnain West across the central and northern Rockies early this morning. As lift from the trough shifts east, a lee low and trailing surface trough will quickly deepen across parts of the High Plains, while a cold front will approach from the interior West. The strong mid-level flow and lee low will support downslope winds across portions of the central High Plains, and to a lesser degree across eastern NM and far West TX. These strong winds of 20-30 mph may briefly overlap with areas of moderately low RH this afternoon. While there is some risk, fire-weather concerns are not expected to be widespread, given the brief nature of the strong winds and lower RH, as well as the passage of the cold front later this afternoon and into the evening. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Embedded within stronger quasi-zonal flow aloft, a shortwave trough is forecast to rapidly eject eastward from the Intermoutnain West across the central and northern Rockies early this morning. As lift from the trough shifts east, a lee low and trailing surface trough will quickly deepen across parts of the High Plains, while a cold front will approach from the interior West. The strong mid-level flow and lee low will support downslope winds across portions of the central High Plains, and to a lesser degree across eastern NM and far West TX. These strong winds of 20-30 mph may briefly overlap with areas of moderately low RH this afternoon. While there is some risk, fire-weather concerns are not expected to be widespread, given the brief nature of the strong winds and lower RH, as well as the passage of the cold front later this afternoon and into the evening. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Embedded within stronger quasi-zonal flow aloft, a shortwave trough is forecast to rapidly eject eastward from the Intermoutnain West across the central and northern Rockies early this morning. As lift from the trough shifts east, a lee low and trailing surface trough will quickly deepen across parts of the High Plains, while a cold front will approach from the interior West. The strong mid-level flow and lee low will support downslope winds across portions of the central High Plains, and to a lesser degree across eastern NM and far West TX. These strong winds of 20-30 mph may briefly overlap with areas of moderately low RH this afternoon. While there is some risk, fire-weather concerns are not expected to be widespread, given the brief nature of the strong winds and lower RH, as well as the passage of the cold front later this afternoon and into the evening. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ...TX/OK/MO to the Lower MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest Monday morning will weaken as it shifts east/northeast across the Great Lakes. The strongest deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this system will mainly be focused over the Mid/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys into the Great Lakes. Though, modest vertical shear will extend as far south as eastern OK and the Ozarks into the ArkLaTex vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from southeast MO into southeast OK and northwest Texas Monday morning. This front will track east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from the TN Valley toward the ArkLaTex and central TX by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will be maintained by south/southwesterly low-level flow from central TX toward the MO Bootheel and the Lower MS Valley. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from eastern OK into southern MO and parts of AR. Additional convection will develop near the southeast-advancing cold front as far northeast as the Lower OH Valley and southeast into central TX and the ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley through the period. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical shear will remain focused north, and out of phase with, the area of better low-level moisture across the south-central states. A couple of stronger storms may produce small hail early in the period from eastern OK toward the MO Bootheel. However, low-level inhibition and poor low-level lapse rates are expected to limit surface-based instability. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, limited surface-based instability, and weakening shear/ascent with southward extent, should limit overall severe potential on Monday. ..Leitman.. 12/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ...TX/OK/MO to the Lower MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest Monday morning will weaken as it shifts east/northeast across the Great Lakes. The strongest deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this system will mainly be focused over the Mid/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys into the Great Lakes. Though, modest vertical shear will extend as far south as eastern OK and the Ozarks into the ArkLaTex vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from southeast MO into southeast OK and northwest Texas Monday morning. This front will track east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from the TN Valley toward the ArkLaTex and central TX by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will be maintained by south/southwesterly low-level flow from central TX toward the MO Bootheel and the Lower MS Valley. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from eastern OK into southern MO and parts of AR. Additional convection will develop near the southeast-advancing cold front as far northeast as the Lower OH Valley and southeast into central TX and the ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley through the period. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical shear will remain focused north, and out of phase with, the area of better low-level moisture across the south-central states. A couple of stronger storms may produce small hail early in the period from eastern OK toward the MO Bootheel. However, low-level inhibition and poor low-level lapse rates are expected to limit surface-based instability. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, limited surface-based instability, and weakening shear/ascent with southward extent, should limit overall severe potential on Monday. ..Leitman.. 12/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ...TX/OK/MO to the Lower MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest Monday morning will weaken as it shifts east/northeast across the Great Lakes. The strongest deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this system will mainly be focused over the Mid/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys into the Great Lakes. Though, modest vertical shear will extend as far south as eastern OK and the Ozarks into the ArkLaTex vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from southeast MO into southeast OK and northwest Texas Monday morning. This front will track east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from the TN Valley toward the ArkLaTex and central TX by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will be maintained by south/southwesterly low-level flow from central TX toward the MO Bootheel and the Lower MS Valley. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from eastern OK into southern MO and parts of AR. Additional convection will develop near the southeast-advancing cold front as far northeast as the Lower OH Valley and southeast into central TX and the ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley through the period. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical shear will remain focused north, and out of phase with, the area of better low-level moisture across the south-central states. A couple of stronger storms may produce small hail early in the period from eastern OK toward the MO Bootheel. However, low-level inhibition and poor low-level lapse rates are expected to limit surface-based instability. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, limited surface-based instability, and weakening shear/ascent with southward extent, should limit overall severe potential on Monday. ..Leitman.. 12/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ...TX/OK/MO to the Lower MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest Monday morning will weaken as it shifts east/northeast across the Great Lakes. The strongest deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this system will mainly be focused over the Mid/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys into the Great Lakes. Though, modest vertical shear will extend as far south as eastern OK and the Ozarks into the ArkLaTex vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from southeast MO into southeast OK and northwest Texas Monday morning. This front will track east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from the TN Valley toward the ArkLaTex and central TX by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will be maintained by south/southwesterly low-level flow from central TX toward the MO Bootheel and the Lower MS Valley. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from eastern OK into southern MO and parts of AR. Additional convection will develop near the southeast-advancing cold front as far northeast as the Lower OH Valley and southeast into central TX and the ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley through the period. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical shear will remain focused north, and out of phase with, the area of better low-level moisture across the south-central states. A couple of stronger storms may produce small hail early in the period from eastern OK toward the MO Bootheel. However, low-level inhibition and poor low-level lapse rates are expected to limit surface-based instability. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, limited surface-based instability, and weakening shear/ascent with southward extent, should limit overall severe potential on Monday. ..Leitman.. 12/15/2024 Read more