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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms, with large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes is possible Saturday into Saturday night, from East Texas, across the Lower Mississippi Valley, into parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow is expected to rapidly amplify over the southern CONUS Saturday, as several southern stream perturbations intensify as they move near the Gulf Coast. A prominent shortwave trough, initial located across the southern OH Valley, will quickly eject northward as a second stronger shortwave approaches from the southern Plains vicinity. A roughly east-west oriented warm front will quickly move inland overnight Friday and into early Saturday in response to increased mid-level height falls and a deepening surface low near the Red River. This will allow for robust moisture return, with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints likely across the lower MS Valley by daybreak. While clouds and precipitation from inland moisture advection may complicate destabilization to some degree, sufficient buoyancy is expected to support numerous strong to severe storms with all hazards possible from East TX and the lower MS valley, into the TN valley from Saturday morning into early Sunday. ...East TX, Lower MS Valley... As the mid-level flow pattern quickly amplifies Saturday, the prominent shortwave trough and a subtle lead wave over the southern plains should rapidly strengthen, taking on neutral to slightly negative tilts by 00z Sunday. As this occurs, increasingly strong diffluent flow aloft will overspread East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity, where middle 60s F surface dewpoints will become more common. Steepening low/mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating should allow for moderate destabilization, despite some lingering clouds and isolated elevated storms. Deeper convection is expected to develop early in the period (11-14z) as ascent from the embedded perturbation and main trough move over a pre-frontal confluence axis across East TX/Western LA. A second round of robust convection may also develop across eastern TX later in the afternoon as a Pacific front associated with the surface low over North TX impinges on the warm sector from the west. A mix of semi-discrete supercells and linearly organized bowing segments are expected with sufficient buoyancy/deep-layer shear overlap for storm organization. An initial risk for large hail, especially where low-level flow is somewhat veered, should transition to a risk for damaging winds and tornadoes as 0-1 km SRH increases to 150-300 m2/s2 into mid/late Saturday afternoon with a 35+ kt 850 mb low-level jet. Convection should quickly spread northeast into the lower MS Valley, peaking in intensity through the afternoon and early evening hours. Coincident with an increase in the low-level jet to 45-65 kt and intensifying surface pressure falls, low-level hodographs will expand with 0-1 km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 likely. This will support the potential for strong tornadoes with any established suppercellular elements. ...Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau... As the upper trough continues to amplify through the day, the warm front will gradually lift north into the southern TN valley by early afternoon. A broad area of cloud cover and perhaps light stratiform precipitation is expected in the presence of strong isentropic ascent along the advancing warm front. This remains the primary uncertainty regarding the northern/eastern extent of the surface-based severe risk later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. While buoyancy/destabilization may be muted, the intensifying upper trough and surface low will favor very strong low and mid-level wind fields supportive of storm organization into Saturday evening and early Sunday. With very large low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 300-500 m2/s2) weakly buoyant near-surface based parcels will still allow for some tornado and or damaging wind risk into the overnight hours, especially with any established supercell or bowing structures across parts of AL, TN and western GA. ..Lyons.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms, with large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes is possible Saturday into Saturday night, from East Texas, across the Lower Mississippi Valley, into parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow is expected to rapidly amplify over the southern CONUS Saturday, as several southern stream perturbations intensify as they move near the Gulf Coast. A prominent shortwave trough, initial located across the southern OH Valley, will quickly eject northward as a second stronger shortwave approaches from the southern Plains vicinity. A roughly east-west oriented warm front will quickly move inland overnight Friday and into early Saturday in response to increased mid-level height falls and a deepening surface low near the Red River. This will allow for robust moisture return, with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints likely across the lower MS Valley by daybreak. While clouds and precipitation from inland moisture advection may complicate destabilization to some degree, sufficient buoyancy is expected to support numerous strong to severe storms with all hazards possible from East TX and the lower MS valley, into the TN valley from Saturday morning into early Sunday. ...East TX, Lower MS Valley... As the mid-level flow pattern quickly amplifies Saturday, the prominent shortwave trough and a subtle lead wave over the southern plains should rapidly strengthen, taking on neutral to slightly negative tilts by 00z Sunday. As this occurs, increasingly strong diffluent flow aloft will overspread East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity, where middle 60s F surface dewpoints will become more common. Steepening low/mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating should allow for moderate destabilization, despite some lingering clouds and isolated elevated storms. Deeper convection is expected to develop early in the period (11-14z) as ascent from the embedded perturbation and main trough move over a pre-frontal confluence axis across East TX/Western LA. A second round of robust convection may also develop across eastern TX later in the afternoon as a Pacific front associated with the surface low over North TX impinges on the warm sector from the west. A mix of semi-discrete supercells and linearly organized bowing segments are expected with sufficient buoyancy/deep-layer shear overlap for storm organization. An initial risk for large hail, especially where low-level flow is somewhat veered, should transition to a risk for damaging winds and tornadoes as 0-1 km SRH increases to 150-300 m2/s2 into mid/late Saturday afternoon with a 35+ kt 850 mb low-level jet. Convection should quickly spread northeast into the lower MS Valley, peaking in intensity through the afternoon and early evening hours. Coincident with an increase in the low-level jet to 45-65 kt and intensifying surface pressure falls, low-level hodographs will expand with 0-1 km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 likely. This will support the potential for strong tornadoes with any established suppercellular elements. ...Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau... As the upper trough continues to amplify through the day, the warm front will gradually lift north into the southern TN valley by early afternoon. A broad area of cloud cover and perhaps light stratiform precipitation is expected in the presence of strong isentropic ascent along the advancing warm front. This remains the primary uncertainty regarding the northern/eastern extent of the surface-based severe risk later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. While buoyancy/destabilization may be muted, the intensifying upper trough and surface low will favor very strong low and mid-level wind fields supportive of storm organization into Saturday evening and early Sunday. With very large low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 300-500 m2/s2) weakly buoyant near-surface based parcels will still allow for some tornado and or damaging wind risk into the overnight hours, especially with any established supercell or bowing structures across parts of AL, TN and western GA. ..Lyons.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms, with large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes is possible Saturday into Saturday night, from East Texas, across the Lower Mississippi Valley, into parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow is expected to rapidly amplify over the southern CONUS Saturday, as several southern stream perturbations intensify as they move near the Gulf Coast. A prominent shortwave trough, initial located across the southern OH Valley, will quickly eject northward as a second stronger shortwave approaches from the southern Plains vicinity. A roughly east-west oriented warm front will quickly move inland overnight Friday and into early Saturday in response to increased mid-level height falls and a deepening surface low near the Red River. This will allow for robust moisture return, with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints likely across the lower MS Valley by daybreak. While clouds and precipitation from inland moisture advection may complicate destabilization to some degree, sufficient buoyancy is expected to support numerous strong to severe storms with all hazards possible from East TX and the lower MS valley, into the TN valley from Saturday morning into early Sunday. ...East TX, Lower MS Valley... As the mid-level flow pattern quickly amplifies Saturday, the prominent shortwave trough and a subtle lead wave over the southern plains should rapidly strengthen, taking on neutral to slightly negative tilts by 00z Sunday. As this occurs, increasingly strong diffluent flow aloft will overspread East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity, where middle 60s F surface dewpoints will become more common. Steepening low/mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating should allow for moderate destabilization, despite some lingering clouds and isolated elevated storms. Deeper convection is expected to develop early in the period (11-14z) as ascent from the embedded perturbation and main trough move over a pre-frontal confluence axis across East TX/Western LA. A second round of robust convection may also develop across eastern TX later in the afternoon as a Pacific front associated with the surface low over North TX impinges on the warm sector from the west. A mix of semi-discrete supercells and linearly organized bowing segments are expected with sufficient buoyancy/deep-layer shear overlap for storm organization. An initial risk for large hail, especially where low-level flow is somewhat veered, should transition to a risk for damaging winds and tornadoes as 0-1 km SRH increases to 150-300 m2/s2 into mid/late Saturday afternoon with a 35+ kt 850 mb low-level jet. Convection should quickly spread northeast into the lower MS Valley, peaking in intensity through the afternoon and early evening hours. Coincident with an increase in the low-level jet to 45-65 kt and intensifying surface pressure falls, low-level hodographs will expand with 0-1 km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 likely. This will support the potential for strong tornadoes with any established suppercellular elements. ...Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau... As the upper trough continues to amplify through the day, the warm front will gradually lift north into the southern TN valley by early afternoon. A broad area of cloud cover and perhaps light stratiform precipitation is expected in the presence of strong isentropic ascent along the advancing warm front. This remains the primary uncertainty regarding the northern/eastern extent of the surface-based severe risk later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. While buoyancy/destabilization may be muted, the intensifying upper trough and surface low will favor very strong low and mid-level wind fields supportive of storm organization into Saturday evening and early Sunday. With very large low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 300-500 m2/s2) weakly buoyant near-surface based parcels will still allow for some tornado and or damaging wind risk into the overnight hours, especially with any established supercell or bowing structures across parts of AL, TN and western GA. ..Lyons.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms, with large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes is possible Saturday into Saturday night, from East Texas, across the Lower Mississippi Valley, into parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow is expected to rapidly amplify over the southern CONUS Saturday, as several southern stream perturbations intensify as they move near the Gulf Coast. A prominent shortwave trough, initial located across the southern OH Valley, will quickly eject northward as a second stronger shortwave approaches from the southern Plains vicinity. A roughly east-west oriented warm front will quickly move inland overnight Friday and into early Saturday in response to increased mid-level height falls and a deepening surface low near the Red River. This will allow for robust moisture return, with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints likely across the lower MS Valley by daybreak. While clouds and precipitation from inland moisture advection may complicate destabilization to some degree, sufficient buoyancy is expected to support numerous strong to severe storms with all hazards possible from East TX and the lower MS valley, into the TN valley from Saturday morning into early Sunday. ...East TX, Lower MS Valley... As the mid-level flow pattern quickly amplifies Saturday, the prominent shortwave trough and a subtle lead wave over the southern plains should rapidly strengthen, taking on neutral to slightly negative tilts by 00z Sunday. As this occurs, increasingly strong diffluent flow aloft will overspread East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity, where middle 60s F surface dewpoints will become more common. Steepening low/mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating should allow for moderate destabilization, despite some lingering clouds and isolated elevated storms. Deeper convection is expected to develop early in the period (11-14z) as ascent from the embedded perturbation and main trough move over a pre-frontal confluence axis across East TX/Western LA. A second round of robust convection may also develop across eastern TX later in the afternoon as a Pacific front associated with the surface low over North TX impinges on the warm sector from the west. A mix of semi-discrete supercells and linearly organized bowing segments are expected with sufficient buoyancy/deep-layer shear overlap for storm organization. An initial risk for large hail, especially where low-level flow is somewhat veered, should transition to a risk for damaging winds and tornadoes as 0-1 km SRH increases to 150-300 m2/s2 into mid/late Saturday afternoon with a 35+ kt 850 mb low-level jet. Convection should quickly spread northeast into the lower MS Valley, peaking in intensity through the afternoon and early evening hours. Coincident with an increase in the low-level jet to 45-65 kt and intensifying surface pressure falls, low-level hodographs will expand with 0-1 km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 likely. This will support the potential for strong tornadoes with any established suppercellular elements. ...Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau... As the upper trough continues to amplify through the day, the warm front will gradually lift north into the southern TN valley by early afternoon. A broad area of cloud cover and perhaps light stratiform precipitation is expected in the presence of strong isentropic ascent along the advancing warm front. This remains the primary uncertainty regarding the northern/eastern extent of the surface-based severe risk later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. While buoyancy/destabilization may be muted, the intensifying upper trough and surface low will favor very strong low and mid-level wind fields supportive of storm organization into Saturday evening and early Sunday. With very large low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 300-500 m2/s2) weakly buoyant near-surface based parcels will still allow for some tornado and or damaging wind risk into the overnight hours, especially with any established supercell or bowing structures across parts of AL, TN and western GA. ..Lyons.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms, with large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes is possible Saturday into Saturday night, from East Texas, across the Lower Mississippi Valley, into parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow is expected to rapidly amplify over the southern CONUS Saturday, as several southern stream perturbations intensify as they move near the Gulf Coast. A prominent shortwave trough, initial located across the southern OH Valley, will quickly eject northward as a second stronger shortwave approaches from the southern Plains vicinity. A roughly east-west oriented warm front will quickly move inland overnight Friday and into early Saturday in response to increased mid-level height falls and a deepening surface low near the Red River. This will allow for robust moisture return, with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints likely across the lower MS Valley by daybreak. While clouds and precipitation from inland moisture advection may complicate destabilization to some degree, sufficient buoyancy is expected to support numerous strong to severe storms with all hazards possible from East TX and the lower MS valley, into the TN valley from Saturday morning into early Sunday. ...East TX, Lower MS Valley... As the mid-level flow pattern quickly amplifies Saturday, the prominent shortwave trough and a subtle lead wave over the southern plains should rapidly strengthen, taking on neutral to slightly negative tilts by 00z Sunday. As this occurs, increasingly strong diffluent flow aloft will overspread East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity, where middle 60s F surface dewpoints will become more common. Steepening low/mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating should allow for moderate destabilization, despite some lingering clouds and isolated elevated storms. Deeper convection is expected to develop early in the period (11-14z) as ascent from the embedded perturbation and main trough move over a pre-frontal confluence axis across East TX/Western LA. A second round of robust convection may also develop across eastern TX later in the afternoon as a Pacific front associated with the surface low over North TX impinges on the warm sector from the west. A mix of semi-discrete supercells and linearly organized bowing segments are expected with sufficient buoyancy/deep-layer shear overlap for storm organization. An initial risk for large hail, especially where low-level flow is somewhat veered, should transition to a risk for damaging winds and tornadoes as 0-1 km SRH increases to 150-300 m2/s2 into mid/late Saturday afternoon with a 35+ kt 850 mb low-level jet. Convection should quickly spread northeast into the lower MS Valley, peaking in intensity through the afternoon and early evening hours. Coincident with an increase in the low-level jet to 45-65 kt and intensifying surface pressure falls, low-level hodographs will expand with 0-1 km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 likely. This will support the potential for strong tornadoes with any established suppercellular elements. ...Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau... As the upper trough continues to amplify through the day, the warm front will gradually lift north into the southern TN valley by early afternoon. A broad area of cloud cover and perhaps light stratiform precipitation is expected in the presence of strong isentropic ascent along the advancing warm front. This remains the primary uncertainty regarding the northern/eastern extent of the surface-based severe risk later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. While buoyancy/destabilization may be muted, the intensifying upper trough and surface low will favor very strong low and mid-level wind fields supportive of storm organization into Saturday evening and early Sunday. With very large low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 300-500 m2/s2) weakly buoyant near-surface based parcels will still allow for some tornado and or damaging wind risk into the overnight hours, especially with any established supercell or bowing structures across parts of AL, TN and western GA. ..Lyons.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast is on track. Some gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon along with low RH. However, above average fuel moisture in the region should preclude a significant fire threat. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will lead to a dry/warm downslope flow regime across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Relative-humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30, locally higher across the higher elevations). Latest guidance suggests fuels in this region will largely not be receptive to fire spread, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast is on track. Some gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon along with low RH. However, above average fuel moisture in the region should preclude a significant fire threat. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will lead to a dry/warm downslope flow regime across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Relative-humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30, locally higher across the higher elevations). Latest guidance suggests fuels in this region will largely not be receptive to fire spread, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast is on track. Some gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon along with low RH. However, above average fuel moisture in the region should preclude a significant fire threat. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will lead to a dry/warm downslope flow regime across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Relative-humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30, locally higher across the higher elevations). Latest guidance suggests fuels in this region will largely not be receptive to fire spread, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast is on track. Some gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon along with low RH. However, above average fuel moisture in the region should preclude a significant fire threat. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will lead to a dry/warm downslope flow regime across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Relative-humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30, locally higher across the higher elevations). Latest guidance suggests fuels in this region will largely not be receptive to fire spread, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast is on track. Some gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon along with low RH. However, above average fuel moisture in the region should preclude a significant fire threat. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will lead to a dry/warm downslope flow regime across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Relative-humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30, locally higher across the higher elevations). Latest guidance suggests fuels in this region will largely not be receptive to fire spread, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast is on track. Some gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon along with low RH. However, above average fuel moisture in the region should preclude a significant fire threat. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will lead to a dry/warm downslope flow regime across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Relative-humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30, locally higher across the higher elevations). Latest guidance suggests fuels in this region will largely not be receptive to fire spread, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast is on track. Some gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon along with low RH. However, above average fuel moisture in the region should preclude a significant fire threat. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will lead to a dry/warm downslope flow regime across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Relative-humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30, locally higher across the higher elevations). Latest guidance suggests fuels in this region will largely not be receptive to fire spread, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast is on track. Some gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon along with low RH. However, above average fuel moisture in the region should preclude a significant fire threat. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will lead to a dry/warm downslope flow regime across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Relative-humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30, locally higher across the higher elevations). Latest guidance suggests fuels in this region will largely not be receptive to fire spread, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast is on track. Some gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon along with low RH. However, above average fuel moisture in the region should preclude a significant fire threat. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will lead to a dry/warm downslope flow regime across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Relative-humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30, locally higher across the higher elevations). Latest guidance suggests fuels in this region will largely not be receptive to fire spread, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. ...Central Gulf Coast Region... A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region. Low-level winds are slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal through mid-afternoon. Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL. The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland. Widespread clouds will also limit destabilization. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening activity, but the overall threat appears marginal. ..Hart/Leitman.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. ...Central Gulf Coast Region... A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region. Low-level winds are slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal through mid-afternoon. Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL. The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland. Widespread clouds will also limit destabilization. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening activity, but the overall threat appears marginal. ..Hart/Leitman.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. ...Central Gulf Coast Region... A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region. Low-level winds are slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal through mid-afternoon. Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL. The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland. Widespread clouds will also limit destabilization. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening activity, but the overall threat appears marginal. ..Hart/Leitman.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. ...Central Gulf Coast Region... A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region. Low-level winds are slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal through mid-afternoon. Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL. The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland. Widespread clouds will also limit destabilization. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening activity, but the overall threat appears marginal. ..Hart/Leitman.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. ...Central Gulf Coast Region... A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region. Low-level winds are slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal through mid-afternoon. Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL. The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland. Widespread clouds will also limit destabilization. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening activity, but the overall threat appears marginal. ..Hart/Leitman.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. ...Central Gulf Coast Region... A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region. Low-level winds are slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal through mid-afternoon. Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL. The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland. Widespread clouds will also limit destabilization. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening activity, but the overall threat appears marginal. ..Hart/Leitman.. 12/27/2024 Read more