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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast states. ...Central Gulf Coast States... A lead shortwave trough will de-amplify today, moving northeastward into the Ohio Valley. In its wake, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley, with a moist airmass located in the central Gulf Coast states. At daybreak, a broken line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front. This line is forecast to gradually diminish this morning, as the shortwave trough moves away from the region. Increasing instability this afternoon should result in convective redevelopment along and near an axis of moisture and instability from south-central Mississippi east-northeastward into Alabama. The models suggest that the instability in the central Gulf Coast states will be displaced to the southwest of the stronger deep-layer shear, and that large-scale ascent will be weak. This will likely keep any severe threat isolated and marginal this afternoon. The strongest cells may have potential to produce isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast states. ...Central Gulf Coast States... A lead shortwave trough will de-amplify today, moving northeastward into the Ohio Valley. In its wake, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley, with a moist airmass located in the central Gulf Coast states. At daybreak, a broken line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the front. This line is forecast to gradually diminish this morning, as the shortwave trough moves away from the region. Increasing instability this afternoon should result in convective redevelopment along and near an axis of moisture and instability from south-central Mississippi east-northeastward into Alabama. The models suggest that the instability in the central Gulf Coast states will be displaced to the southwest of the stronger deep-layer shear, and that large-scale ascent will be weak. This will likely keep any severe threat isolated and marginal this afternoon. The strongest cells may have potential to produce isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/27/2024 Read more

WW 0716 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH TO 25 SSE ESF. ..SPC..12/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-009-023-039-053-270640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA AVOYELLES CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0716 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BPT TO 30 S MLU TO 10 SE MLU. ..THORNTON..12/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-019-023-039-053-059-079-270540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE RAPIDES GMZ432-270540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CALCASIEU LAKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2288 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 716... FOR LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2288 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0853 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Areas affected...Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 716... Valid 270253Z - 270430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 716 continues. SUMMARY...Some tornado risk continues across Louisiana this evening. DISCUSSION...Strongly dynamic short-wave trough is ejecting across the Arklatex this evening. In response to this feature, LLJ is strengthening across northern LA. Strong low-level warm advection appears to be mostly responsible for a corridor of strong-severe convection that is propagating east across ww716. Within this corridor, a few longer-lived supercells are embedded. One, potentially tornadic supercell, is moving northeast across Rapides Parish. Latest diagnostic data suggests this is near the northern limits of surface-based buoyancy, but very strong shear may allow this updraft to persist a bit farther downstream before it weakens appreciably. While a few supercells may spread just east of the watch into western portions of JAN/LIX CWA, latest thinking is updrafts should gradually weaken as they approach the MS delta region. ..Darrow.. 12/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 29729416 32159338 32159185 29739266 29729416 Read more

WW 0716 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GLS TO 20 ESE BPT TO 30 S POE TO 40 WSW MLU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288 ..THORNTON..12/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-019-021-023-039-053-059-079-127-270440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN CALCASIEU CALDWELL CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE RAPIDES WINN GMZ432-270440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CALCASIEU LAKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0716 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS TO 15 NE BPT TO 5 NW POE TO 45 WSW MLU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288 ..THORNTON..12/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-011-019-021-023-039-043-053-059-069-079-127-270340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CAMERON EVANGELINE GRANT JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES WINN GMZ430-432-270340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SABINE LAKE CALCASIEU LAKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0716 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N GLS TO 45 N BPT TO 25 WSW IER TO 45 N IER. ..THORNTON..12/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-011-019-021-023-039-043-053-059-069-079-115-127- 270240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CAMERON EVANGELINE GRANT JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES VERNON WINN TXC245-351-361-270240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON NEWTON ORANGE GMZ430-432-270240- CW Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes, will move eastward across far southeast Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas this evening. ...Southeast Texas/Louisiana/Southern Arkansas... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving across east-central Texas. At the surface, a low is in northeast Texas with a cold front moving eastward through east and southeast Texas. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of the front from far southeast Texas into far western Louisiana. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints range from the mid 50s F in southern Arkansas to the upper 60s F in southwest Louisiana. Along the western edge of the moist corridor, the RAP has low-level lapse rates of 5 to 6 C/km, with MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, except in the Houston/Galveston area where MLCAPE is near 1500 J/kg. In spite of the relatively poor thermodynamic environment, strong deep-layer shear is present across much of the moist sector. The Fort Polk WSR-88D VWP appears to be sampling the strongest deep-layer shear, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots. The strong deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell development with cells that remain semi-discrete ahead of the front. Supercells and organized multicell line segments will have the potential to produce severe wind gusts and hail. In addition, a narrow 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP from far southeast Texas to northwest Louisiana. Low-level shear, associated with this feature, should be strong enough to maintain a tornado threat for several more hours this evening. The tornado threat will be the greatest with supercells and quasi-linear convective systems. ..Broyles.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes, will move eastward across far southeast Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas this evening. ...Southeast Texas/Louisiana/Southern Arkansas... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving across east-central Texas. At the surface, a low is in northeast Texas with a cold front moving eastward through east and southeast Texas. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of the front from far southeast Texas into far western Louisiana. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints range from the mid 50s F in southern Arkansas to the upper 60s F in southwest Louisiana. Along the western edge of the moist corridor, the RAP has low-level lapse rates of 5 to 6 C/km, with MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, except in the Houston/Galveston area where MLCAPE is near 1500 J/kg. In spite of the relatively poor thermodynamic environment, strong deep-layer shear is present across much of the moist sector. The Fort Polk WSR-88D VWP appears to be sampling the strongest deep-layer shear, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots. The strong deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell development with cells that remain semi-discrete ahead of the front. Supercells and organized multicell line segments will have the potential to produce severe wind gusts and hail. In addition, a narrow 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP from far southeast Texas to northwest Louisiana. Low-level shear, associated with this feature, should be strong enough to maintain a tornado threat for several more hours this evening. The tornado threat will be the greatest with supercells and quasi-linear convective systems. ..Broyles.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes, will move eastward across far southeast Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas this evening. ...Southeast Texas/Louisiana/Southern Arkansas... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving across east-central Texas. At the surface, a low is in northeast Texas with a cold front moving eastward through east and southeast Texas. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of the front from far southeast Texas into far western Louisiana. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints range from the mid 50s F in southern Arkansas to the upper 60s F in southwest Louisiana. Along the western edge of the moist corridor, the RAP has low-level lapse rates of 5 to 6 C/km, with MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, except in the Houston/Galveston area where MLCAPE is near 1500 J/kg. In spite of the relatively poor thermodynamic environment, strong deep-layer shear is present across much of the moist sector. The Fort Polk WSR-88D VWP appears to be sampling the strongest deep-layer shear, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots. The strong deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell development with cells that remain semi-discrete ahead of the front. Supercells and organized multicell line segments will have the potential to produce severe wind gusts and hail. In addition, a narrow 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP from far southeast Texas to northwest Louisiana. Low-level shear, associated with this feature, should be strong enough to maintain a tornado threat for several more hours this evening. The tornado threat will be the greatest with supercells and quasi-linear convective systems. ..Broyles.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes, will move eastward across far southeast Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas this evening. ...Southeast Texas/Louisiana/Southern Arkansas... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving across east-central Texas. At the surface, a low is in northeast Texas with a cold front moving eastward through east and southeast Texas. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of the front from far southeast Texas into far western Louisiana. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints range from the mid 50s F in southern Arkansas to the upper 60s F in southwest Louisiana. Along the western edge of the moist corridor, the RAP has low-level lapse rates of 5 to 6 C/km, with MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, except in the Houston/Galveston area where MLCAPE is near 1500 J/kg. In spite of the relatively poor thermodynamic environment, strong deep-layer shear is present across much of the moist sector. The Fort Polk WSR-88D VWP appears to be sampling the strongest deep-layer shear, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots. The strong deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell development with cells that remain semi-discrete ahead of the front. Supercells and organized multicell line segments will have the potential to produce severe wind gusts and hail. In addition, a narrow 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP from far southeast Texas to northwest Louisiana. Low-level shear, associated with this feature, should be strong enough to maintain a tornado threat for several more hours this evening. The tornado threat will be the greatest with supercells and quasi-linear convective systems. ..Broyles.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes, will move eastward across far southeast Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas this evening. ...Southeast Texas/Louisiana/Southern Arkansas... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving across east-central Texas. At the surface, a low is in northeast Texas with a cold front moving eastward through east and southeast Texas. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of the front from far southeast Texas into far western Louisiana. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints range from the mid 50s F in southern Arkansas to the upper 60s F in southwest Louisiana. Along the western edge of the moist corridor, the RAP has low-level lapse rates of 5 to 6 C/km, with MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, except in the Houston/Galveston area where MLCAPE is near 1500 J/kg. In spite of the relatively poor thermodynamic environment, strong deep-layer shear is present across much of the moist sector. The Fort Polk WSR-88D VWP appears to be sampling the strongest deep-layer shear, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots. The strong deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell development with cells that remain semi-discrete ahead of the front. Supercells and organized multicell line segments will have the potential to produce severe wind gusts and hail. In addition, a narrow 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP from far southeast Texas to northwest Louisiana. Low-level shear, associated with this feature, should be strong enough to maintain a tornado threat for several more hours this evening. The tornado threat will be the greatest with supercells and quasi-linear convective systems. ..Broyles.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes, will move eastward across far southeast Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas this evening. ...Southeast Texas/Louisiana/Southern Arkansas... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving across east-central Texas. At the surface, a low is in northeast Texas with a cold front moving eastward through east and southeast Texas. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of the front from far southeast Texas into far western Louisiana. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints range from the mid 50s F in southern Arkansas to the upper 60s F in southwest Louisiana. Along the western edge of the moist corridor, the RAP has low-level lapse rates of 5 to 6 C/km, with MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, except in the Houston/Galveston area where MLCAPE is near 1500 J/kg. In spite of the relatively poor thermodynamic environment, strong deep-layer shear is present across much of the moist sector. The Fort Polk WSR-88D VWP appears to be sampling the strongest deep-layer shear, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots. The strong deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell development with cells that remain semi-discrete ahead of the front. Supercells and organized multicell line segments will have the potential to produce severe wind gusts and hail. In addition, a narrow 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP from far southeast Texas to northwest Louisiana. Low-level shear, associated with this feature, should be strong enough to maintain a tornado threat for several more hours this evening. The tornado threat will be the greatest with supercells and quasi-linear convective systems. ..Broyles.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes, will move eastward across far southeast Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas this evening. ...Southeast Texas/Louisiana/Southern Arkansas... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving across east-central Texas. At the surface, a low is in northeast Texas with a cold front moving eastward through east and southeast Texas. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of the front from far southeast Texas into far western Louisiana. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints range from the mid 50s F in southern Arkansas to the upper 60s F in southwest Louisiana. Along the western edge of the moist corridor, the RAP has low-level lapse rates of 5 to 6 C/km, with MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, except in the Houston/Galveston area where MLCAPE is near 1500 J/kg. In spite of the relatively poor thermodynamic environment, strong deep-layer shear is present across much of the moist sector. The Fort Polk WSR-88D VWP appears to be sampling the strongest deep-layer shear, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots. The strong deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell development with cells that remain semi-discrete ahead of the front. Supercells and organized multicell line segments will have the potential to produce severe wind gusts and hail. In addition, a narrow 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP from far southeast Texas to northwest Louisiana. Low-level shear, associated with this feature, should be strong enough to maintain a tornado threat for several more hours this evening. The tornado threat will be the greatest with supercells and quasi-linear convective systems. ..Broyles.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes, will move eastward across far southeast Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas this evening. ...Southeast Texas/Louisiana/Southern Arkansas... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving across east-central Texas. At the surface, a low is in northeast Texas with a cold front moving eastward through east and southeast Texas. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of the front from far southeast Texas into far western Louisiana. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints range from the mid 50s F in southern Arkansas to the upper 60s F in southwest Louisiana. Along the western edge of the moist corridor, the RAP has low-level lapse rates of 5 to 6 C/km, with MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, except in the Houston/Galveston area where MLCAPE is near 1500 J/kg. In spite of the relatively poor thermodynamic environment, strong deep-layer shear is present across much of the moist sector. The Fort Polk WSR-88D VWP appears to be sampling the strongest deep-layer shear, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots. The strong deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell development with cells that remain semi-discrete ahead of the front. Supercells and organized multicell line segments will have the potential to produce severe wind gusts and hail. In addition, a narrow 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP from far southeast Texas to northwest Louisiana. Low-level shear, associated with this feature, should be strong enough to maintain a tornado threat for several more hours this evening. The tornado threat will be the greatest with supercells and quasi-linear convective systems. ..Broyles.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes, will move eastward across far southeast Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas this evening. ...Southeast Texas/Louisiana/Southern Arkansas... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving across east-central Texas. At the surface, a low is in northeast Texas with a cold front moving eastward through east and southeast Texas. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of the front from far southeast Texas into far western Louisiana. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints range from the mid 50s F in southern Arkansas to the upper 60s F in southwest Louisiana. Along the western edge of the moist corridor, the RAP has low-level lapse rates of 5 to 6 C/km, with MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, except in the Houston/Galveston area where MLCAPE is near 1500 J/kg. In spite of the relatively poor thermodynamic environment, strong deep-layer shear is present across much of the moist sector. The Fort Polk WSR-88D VWP appears to be sampling the strongest deep-layer shear, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots. The strong deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell development with cells that remain semi-discrete ahead of the front. Supercells and organized multicell line segments will have the potential to produce severe wind gusts and hail. In addition, a narrow 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP from far southeast Texas to northwest Louisiana. Low-level shear, associated with this feature, should be strong enough to maintain a tornado threat for several more hours this evening. The tornado threat will be the greatest with supercells and quasi-linear convective systems. ..Broyles.. 12/27/2024 Read more

WW 0716 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 716 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..12/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-011-019-021-023-039-043-053-059-069-079-081-085-115- 127-270140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CAMERON EVANGELINE GRANT JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON WINN TXC241-245-351-361-403-270140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER JEFFERSON NEWTON ORANGE SABINE GMZ430-432-270140- CW Read more

WW 0715 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LBX TO 25 NNW BPT TO 50 ENE LFK TO 25 N IER. ..THORNTON..12/27/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-167-270140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON GMZ335-270140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0715 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LBX TO 25 NNW BPT TO 50 ENE LFK TO 25 N IER. ..THORNTON..12/27/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-167-270140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON GMZ335-270140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more