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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more