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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Shallow convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Saturday. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude upper-level ridging will develop in the wake of departing trough across the Great Lakes into the Mid-South. Within the central Plains, another shortwave trough is expected to intensify as it progresses eastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. At the surface, the initial stages of warm advection into the Tennessee Valley will take place late Friday night and will continue through mid/late Saturday afternoon. Modest moisture (mid/upper 50s F dewpoints) may reach as far north as the Ohio Valley region. By Saturday evening, a strong cold front will then push into Mid-South/Southeast into Sunday morning. A modest surface cyclone will develop in response to the secondary upper trough and progress along the surface boundary. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Models continue to show variability in the strength of the surface cyclone and, consequently, the degree of warm/moist advection into the regions. Despite these differences, there is likely to be some remnant, shallow cold air across Kentucky/Tennessee and adjacent areas. Cloud cover will mute surface heating, but offsetting warm advection should allow areas of low 60s F temperatures south of the Ohio River. The thermodynamic environment is expected to be rather weak. The general model consensus would suggest no more than 100 J/kg of MUCAPE is possible. The primary driver of convection will be the cold front where shallow convective showers are probable. Convective depth will be limited by lingering warm air aloft and lightning production will be minimal to isolated. Even with these limitations, 40-50 kts of flow at 850 mb could allow for isolated stronger wind gusts within locally deeper convection. Given the remaining uncertainties and expected sparse coverage of marginally stronger activity, severe potential still appears low. Near and north of the Ohio River, convection should remain elevated with similar low/isolated potential for lightning. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Shallow convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Saturday. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude upper-level ridging will develop in the wake of departing trough across the Great Lakes into the Mid-South. Within the central Plains, another shortwave trough is expected to intensify as it progresses eastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. At the surface, the initial stages of warm advection into the Tennessee Valley will take place late Friday night and will continue through mid/late Saturday afternoon. Modest moisture (mid/upper 50s F dewpoints) may reach as far north as the Ohio Valley region. By Saturday evening, a strong cold front will then push into Mid-South/Southeast into Sunday morning. A modest surface cyclone will develop in response to the secondary upper trough and progress along the surface boundary. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Models continue to show variability in the strength of the surface cyclone and, consequently, the degree of warm/moist advection into the regions. Despite these differences, there is likely to be some remnant, shallow cold air across Kentucky/Tennessee and adjacent areas. Cloud cover will mute surface heating, but offsetting warm advection should allow areas of low 60s F temperatures south of the Ohio River. The thermodynamic environment is expected to be rather weak. The general model consensus would suggest no more than 100 J/kg of MUCAPE is possible. The primary driver of convection will be the cold front where shallow convective showers are probable. Convective depth will be limited by lingering warm air aloft and lightning production will be minimal to isolated. Even with these limitations, 40-50 kts of flow at 850 mb could allow for isolated stronger wind gusts within locally deeper convection. Given the remaining uncertainties and expected sparse coverage of marginally stronger activity, severe potential still appears low. Near and north of the Ohio River, convection should remain elevated with similar low/isolated potential for lightning. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Shallow convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Saturday. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude upper-level ridging will develop in the wake of departing trough across the Great Lakes into the Mid-South. Within the central Plains, another shortwave trough is expected to intensify as it progresses eastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. At the surface, the initial stages of warm advection into the Tennessee Valley will take place late Friday night and will continue through mid/late Saturday afternoon. Modest moisture (mid/upper 50s F dewpoints) may reach as far north as the Ohio Valley region. By Saturday evening, a strong cold front will then push into Mid-South/Southeast into Sunday morning. A modest surface cyclone will develop in response to the secondary upper trough and progress along the surface boundary. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Models continue to show variability in the strength of the surface cyclone and, consequently, the degree of warm/moist advection into the regions. Despite these differences, there is likely to be some remnant, shallow cold air across Kentucky/Tennessee and adjacent areas. Cloud cover will mute surface heating, but offsetting warm advection should allow areas of low 60s F temperatures south of the Ohio River. The thermodynamic environment is expected to be rather weak. The general model consensus would suggest no more than 100 J/kg of MUCAPE is possible. The primary driver of convection will be the cold front where shallow convective showers are probable. Convective depth will be limited by lingering warm air aloft and lightning production will be minimal to isolated. Even with these limitations, 40-50 kts of flow at 850 mb could allow for isolated stronger wind gusts within locally deeper convection. Given the remaining uncertainties and expected sparse coverage of marginally stronger activity, severe potential still appears low. Near and north of the Ohio River, convection should remain elevated with similar low/isolated potential for lightning. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Shallow convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Saturday. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude upper-level ridging will develop in the wake of departing trough across the Great Lakes into the Mid-South. Within the central Plains, another shortwave trough is expected to intensify as it progresses eastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. At the surface, the initial stages of warm advection into the Tennessee Valley will take place late Friday night and will continue through mid/late Saturday afternoon. Modest moisture (mid/upper 50s F dewpoints) may reach as far north as the Ohio Valley region. By Saturday evening, a strong cold front will then push into Mid-South/Southeast into Sunday morning. A modest surface cyclone will develop in response to the secondary upper trough and progress along the surface boundary. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Models continue to show variability in the strength of the surface cyclone and, consequently, the degree of warm/moist advection into the regions. Despite these differences, there is likely to be some remnant, shallow cold air across Kentucky/Tennessee and adjacent areas. Cloud cover will mute surface heating, but offsetting warm advection should allow areas of low 60s F temperatures south of the Ohio River. The thermodynamic environment is expected to be rather weak. The general model consensus would suggest no more than 100 J/kg of MUCAPE is possible. The primary driver of convection will be the cold front where shallow convective showers are probable. Convective depth will be limited by lingering warm air aloft and lightning production will be minimal to isolated. Even with these limitations, 40-50 kts of flow at 850 mb could allow for isolated stronger wind gusts within locally deeper convection. Given the remaining uncertainties and expected sparse coverage of marginally stronger activity, severe potential still appears low. Near and north of the Ohio River, convection should remain elevated with similar low/isolated potential for lightning. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Shallow convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Saturday. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude upper-level ridging will develop in the wake of departing trough across the Great Lakes into the Mid-South. Within the central Plains, another shortwave trough is expected to intensify as it progresses eastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. At the surface, the initial stages of warm advection into the Tennessee Valley will take place late Friday night and will continue through mid/late Saturday afternoon. Modest moisture (mid/upper 50s F dewpoints) may reach as far north as the Ohio Valley region. By Saturday evening, a strong cold front will then push into Mid-South/Southeast into Sunday morning. A modest surface cyclone will develop in response to the secondary upper trough and progress along the surface boundary. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Models continue to show variability in the strength of the surface cyclone and, consequently, the degree of warm/moist advection into the regions. Despite these differences, there is likely to be some remnant, shallow cold air across Kentucky/Tennessee and adjacent areas. Cloud cover will mute surface heating, but offsetting warm advection should allow areas of low 60s F temperatures south of the Ohio River. The thermodynamic environment is expected to be rather weak. The general model consensus would suggest no more than 100 J/kg of MUCAPE is possible. The primary driver of convection will be the cold front where shallow convective showers are probable. Convective depth will be limited by lingering warm air aloft and lightning production will be minimal to isolated. Even with these limitations, 40-50 kts of flow at 850 mb could allow for isolated stronger wind gusts within locally deeper convection. Given the remaining uncertainties and expected sparse coverage of marginally stronger activity, severe potential still appears low. Near and north of the Ohio River, convection should remain elevated with similar low/isolated potential for lightning. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Coastal NC/southeast VA... Ongoing convection across the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont will subside as storms progress east towards the southeast VA to NC coast through sunrise, amid a meagerly buoyant air mass. There is a low probability that this activity may linger in the 12-13Z period, before entirely vacating the coast. ...Southern ID/northern UT/western WY... A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will move across the northern Great Basin towards the north-central Rockies by afternoon. Downstream of this wave, warm-moist advection near 700 mb beneath cooling mid/upper-level temperatures may foster scant buoyancy later this morning into the afternoon. Despite marginal temperatures for mixed-phase parcels, very isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Snake River Plain and northeast Great Basin vicinity. ..Grams/Barnes.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Coastal NC/southeast VA... Ongoing convection across the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont will subside as storms progress east towards the southeast VA to NC coast through sunrise, amid a meagerly buoyant air mass. There is a low probability that this activity may linger in the 12-13Z period, before entirely vacating the coast. ...Southern ID/northern UT/western WY... A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will move across the northern Great Basin towards the north-central Rockies by afternoon. Downstream of this wave, warm-moist advection near 700 mb beneath cooling mid/upper-level temperatures may foster scant buoyancy later this morning into the afternoon. Despite marginal temperatures for mixed-phase parcels, very isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Snake River Plain and northeast Great Basin vicinity. ..Grams/Barnes.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Coastal NC/southeast VA... Ongoing convection across the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont will subside as storms progress east towards the southeast VA to NC coast through sunrise, amid a meagerly buoyant air mass. There is a low probability that this activity may linger in the 12-13Z period, before entirely vacating the coast. ...Southern ID/northern UT/western WY... A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will move across the northern Great Basin towards the north-central Rockies by afternoon. Downstream of this wave, warm-moist advection near 700 mb beneath cooling mid/upper-level temperatures may foster scant buoyancy later this morning into the afternoon. Despite marginal temperatures for mixed-phase parcels, very isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Snake River Plain and northeast Great Basin vicinity. ..Grams/Barnes.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Coastal NC/southeast VA... Ongoing convection across the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont will subside as storms progress east towards the southeast VA to NC coast through sunrise, amid a meagerly buoyant air mass. There is a low probability that this activity may linger in the 12-13Z period, before entirely vacating the coast. ...Southern ID/northern UT/western WY... A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will move across the northern Great Basin towards the north-central Rockies by afternoon. Downstream of this wave, warm-moist advection near 700 mb beneath cooling mid/upper-level temperatures may foster scant buoyancy later this morning into the afternoon. Despite marginal temperatures for mixed-phase parcels, very isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Snake River Plain and northeast Great Basin vicinity. ..Grams/Barnes.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Coastal NC/southeast VA... Ongoing convection across the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont will subside as storms progress east towards the southeast VA to NC coast through sunrise, amid a meagerly buoyant air mass. There is a low probability that this activity may linger in the 12-13Z period, before entirely vacating the coast. ...Southern ID/northern UT/western WY... A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will move across the northern Great Basin towards the north-central Rockies by afternoon. Downstream of this wave, warm-moist advection near 700 mb beneath cooling mid/upper-level temperatures may foster scant buoyancy later this morning into the afternoon. Despite marginal temperatures for mixed-phase parcels, very isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Snake River Plain and northeast Great Basin vicinity. ..Grams/Barnes.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Coastal NC/southeast VA... Ongoing convection across the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont will subside as storms progress east towards the southeast VA to NC coast through sunrise, amid a meagerly buoyant air mass. There is a low probability that this activity may linger in the 12-13Z period, before entirely vacating the coast. ...Southern ID/northern UT/western WY... A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will move across the northern Great Basin towards the north-central Rockies by afternoon. Downstream of this wave, warm-moist advection near 700 mb beneath cooling mid/upper-level temperatures may foster scant buoyancy later this morning into the afternoon. Despite marginal temperatures for mixed-phase parcels, very isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Snake River Plain and northeast Great Basin vicinity. ..Grams/Barnes.. 02/07/2025 Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW TYS TO 15 NE TYS TO 30 NE TYS TO 35 WNW HSS TO 25 NNE TRI. WW 4 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 070500Z. ..HART..02/07/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC009-029-059-089-155-163-179-070500- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT COCKE GREENE JEFFERSON SEVIER SULLIVAN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 4 SEVERE TSTM KY TN VA 070030Z - 070500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 4 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Kentucky Northeast Tennessee Extreme Southwest Virginia * Effective this Thursday night from 730 PM until Midnight EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered intense storms will track southeastward across the watch area for the next few hours, capable of hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Knoxville TN to 30 miles north northeast of Hot Springs NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0073 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 4... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...AND FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0073 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0828 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Tennessee...Kentucky...and far western Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4... Valid 070228Z - 070330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to progress eastward across portions of eastern TN over the next hour. Hail up to the size of golf balls, damaging wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, and a tornado or two remain possible. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows two dominant supercells moving ESE near Rutledge and Knoxville, TN. These right moving storms have exhibited rotation in the lowest levels over the past 30-60 minutes, and are located within a buoyancy axis extending southwest to northeast. This is also where stronger southwest flow just above the surface (40-50 kt) continues to be observed via the MRX VWP, yielding 0-1 km SRH of 300-350 m2/s2. This area of both enhanced instability and low level shear should continue to favor supercells for at least another hour, with a threat of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado. ..Barnes/Hart.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL... LAT...LON 36028452 36138419 36298390 36508376 36728333 36808315 36808288 36708266 36558262 36248261 36008263 35838280 35698311 35648338 35768403 35858426 36028452 Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CSV TO 15 WNW TYS TO 25 N TYS TO 30 NNE TYS TO 45 SE LOZ TO 45 N TRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073 ..HART..02/07/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC009-029-057-059-063-067-073-089-093-105-155-163-179-070340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT COCKE GRAINGER GREENE HAMBLEN HANCOCK HAWKINS JEFFERSON KNOX LOUDON SEVIER SULLIVAN WASHINGTON VAC105-169-195-720-070340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEE SCOTT WISE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0072 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 4... FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN INTO SOUTHEAST KY AND FAR SOUTHWEST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0072 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of middle/eastern TN into southeast KY and far southwest VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4... Valid 070041Z - 070215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado or two, hail, and damaging wind will continue through the evening. DISCUSSION...A supercell has gradually matured over the last 1-2 hours to the northeast of Nashville, while other cells continue to develop and intensify near and just north of a surface boundary across southeast KY. Some increase in low-level flow/shear was noted earlier from the KOHX VWP, with short-term guidance suggesting that low-level flow will continue to increase this evening as ongoing convection spreads eastward into eastern TN and far southeast KY/southwest VA. With nocturnal cooling/stabilization expected to be only gradual through the evening, MLCAPE will likely remain in the 500-1000 J/kg range in advance of the ongoing convection, with favorable deep-layer shear continuing to support supercell structures and potentially one or more semi-organized clusters. With only a slow increase in MLCINH expected, ongoing supercells may persist through much of the evening, with some potential tendency toward modest upscale growth with time. While low-level flow remains rather veered, effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 will support some tornado threat with any persistent right-moving supercells. Otherwise, isolated large hail will be possible, especially with any left-moving supercells, while damaging wind could accompany any stronger supercells or organized clusters. ..Dean.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 37188239 36728210 36528206 36028259 35718317 35648440 35698527 35888546 36518537 36898492 37048449 37268346 37278306 37188239 Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CSV TO 45 SSW LOZ TO 35 SSW LOZ TO 25 S LOZ TO 30 SE LOZ TO 30 S JKL. ..EDWARDS..02/07/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-095-133-193-070240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL HARLAN LETCHER PERRY TNC001-009-013-025-029-057-059-063-067-073-089-093-105-129-145- 151-155-163-173-179-070240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BLOUNT CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE COCKE GRAINGER GREENE HAMBLEN HANCOCK HAWKINS JEFFERSON KNOX LOUDON MORGAN ROANE SCOTT SEVIER SULLIVAN UNION WASHINGTON VAC105-169-195-720-070240- Read more