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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 12 06:40:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more