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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the southern Plains and impinge on the East Coast this weekend, supporting a southward sweeping cold front across the central and eastern CONUS. Downslope flow is likely across western Texas on Day 4/Saturday, with dry and windy conditions expected to overspread curing fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, surface low development should take place across the Plains states by early next week with the approach of another mid-level trough, which is poised to sweep across the CONUS by the mid-week time frame. Some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible across the southern High Plains around Days 6-7 (Monday-Tuesday), before colder conditions overspread the southern U.S. with the approach of another cold front. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the southern Plains and impinge on the East Coast this weekend, supporting a southward sweeping cold front across the central and eastern CONUS. Downslope flow is likely across western Texas on Day 4/Saturday, with dry and windy conditions expected to overspread curing fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, surface low development should take place across the Plains states by early next week with the approach of another mid-level trough, which is poised to sweep across the CONUS by the mid-week time frame. Some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible across the southern High Plains around Days 6-7 (Monday-Tuesday), before colder conditions overspread the southern U.S. with the approach of another cold front. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the southern Plains and impinge on the East Coast this weekend, supporting a southward sweeping cold front across the central and eastern CONUS. Downslope flow is likely across western Texas on Day 4/Saturday, with dry and windy conditions expected to overspread curing fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, surface low development should take place across the Plains states by early next week with the approach of another mid-level trough, which is poised to sweep across the CONUS by the mid-week time frame. Some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible across the southern High Plains around Days 6-7 (Monday-Tuesday), before colder conditions overspread the southern U.S. with the approach of another cold front. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the southern Plains and impinge on the East Coast this weekend, supporting a southward sweeping cold front across the central and eastern CONUS. Downslope flow is likely across western Texas on Day 4/Saturday, with dry and windy conditions expected to overspread curing fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, surface low development should take place across the Plains states by early next week with the approach of another mid-level trough, which is poised to sweep across the CONUS by the mid-week time frame. Some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible across the southern High Plains around Days 6-7 (Monday-Tuesday), before colder conditions overspread the southern U.S. with the approach of another cold front. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the southern Plains and impinge on the East Coast this weekend, supporting a southward sweeping cold front across the central and eastern CONUS. Downslope flow is likely across western Texas on Day 4/Saturday, with dry and windy conditions expected to overspread curing fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, surface low development should take place across the Plains states by early next week with the approach of another mid-level trough, which is poised to sweep across the CONUS by the mid-week time frame. Some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible across the southern High Plains around Days 6-7 (Monday-Tuesday), before colder conditions overspread the southern U.S. with the approach of another cold front. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the southern Plains and impinge on the East Coast this weekend, supporting a southward sweeping cold front across the central and eastern CONUS. Downslope flow is likely across western Texas on Day 4/Saturday, with dry and windy conditions expected to overspread curing fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, surface low development should take place across the Plains states by early next week with the approach of another mid-level trough, which is poised to sweep across the CONUS by the mid-week time frame. Some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible across the southern High Plains around Days 6-7 (Monday-Tuesday), before colder conditions overspread the southern U.S. with the approach of another cold front. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the southern Plains and impinge on the East Coast this weekend, supporting a southward sweeping cold front across the central and eastern CONUS. Downslope flow is likely across western Texas on Day 4/Saturday, with dry and windy conditions expected to overspread curing fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, surface low development should take place across the Plains states by early next week with the approach of another mid-level trough, which is poised to sweep across the CONUS by the mid-week time frame. Some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible across the southern High Plains around Days 6-7 (Monday-Tuesday), before colder conditions overspread the southern U.S. with the approach of another cold front. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the southern Plains and impinge on the East Coast this weekend, supporting a southward sweeping cold front across the central and eastern CONUS. Downslope flow is likely across western Texas on Day 4/Saturday, with dry and windy conditions expected to overspread curing fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, surface low development should take place across the Plains states by early next week with the approach of another mid-level trough, which is poised to sweep across the CONUS by the mid-week time frame. Some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible across the southern High Plains around Days 6-7 (Monday-Tuesday), before colder conditions overspread the southern U.S. with the approach of another cold front. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the southern Plains and impinge on the East Coast this weekend, supporting a southward sweeping cold front across the central and eastern CONUS. Downslope flow is likely across western Texas on Day 4/Saturday, with dry and windy conditions expected to overspread curing fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, surface low development should take place across the Plains states by early next week with the approach of another mid-level trough, which is poised to sweep across the CONUS by the mid-week time frame. Some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible across the southern High Plains around Days 6-7 (Monday-Tuesday), before colder conditions overspread the southern U.S. with the approach of another cold front. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the southern Plains and impinge on the East Coast this weekend, supporting a southward sweeping cold front across the central and eastern CONUS. Downslope flow is likely across western Texas on Day 4/Saturday, with dry and windy conditions expected to overspread curing fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, surface low development should take place across the Plains states by early next week with the approach of another mid-level trough, which is poised to sweep across the CONUS by the mid-week time frame. Some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible across the southern High Plains around Days 6-7 (Monday-Tuesday), before colder conditions overspread the southern U.S. with the approach of another cold front. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0086 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR FAR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...Far northwest North Carolina into western and central Virginia Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 121658Z - 122200Z SUMMARY...Another round of freezing rain is expected through the late afternoon and evening hours in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains as precipitation advances northeastward. DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics show a swath of stratiform precipitation associated with a broad mid-level warm frontal zone spreading northeastward from northern MS/AL and TN into the western Carolinas. Downstream from the precipitation swath, surface temperatures in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains from far northwest NC into western and central VA remain below freezing. 12 UTC soundings from GSO and RNK sampled a 4-7 C warm nose at about 850 mb that will remain in place through the remainder of the day (if not strengthen) as warm advection increases ahead of an approaching upper disturbance. A combination of very limited daytime heating, continued cold air damming along the terrain, and minimal surface heat flux (due to recent ice accumulations of 0.25 to 0.5 inch) will maintain a pocket of sub-freezing surface temperatures and support freezing rain as the primary precipitation type. The next round of freezing rain will likely begin as the upstream precipitation swath spreads northeast through the afternoon hours. Recent high-res solutions, which have captured overall precipitation trends well, suggest an onset time of around 18 UTC for far northwest NC and far southwest VA, and a later onset time of around 20 UTC for western/central VA. Persistent warm advection ahead of a deepening low to the west will support the potential for multiple rounds of freezing rain through late afternoon and into the evening hours with freezing rain rates generally between 0.03 to 0.06 inches/hour (though locally higher rates appear possible). ..Moore.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36947909 36727990 36428065 36198128 36008162 35958194 36228196 36598173 36928147 37488094 38307981 38407939 38467876 38287787 37997739 37677727 37387739 37177793 37077854 36947909 Read more

WW 0006 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW HEZ TO 45 NE MLU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088 ..MOORE..02/12/25 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-023-025-035-047-053-091-097-099-119-129-131-122240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH DALLAS ESCAMBIA MARENGO MOBILE MONROE SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX LAC065-107-122240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE MADISON TENSAS MSC021-023-029-031-035-039-041-049-061-063-065-067-069-073-075- 077-079-085-089-091-099-101-111-121-123-127-129-131-149-153- 122240- Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE BPT TO 25 SSW ESF TO 15 SSE MLU. ..MOORE..02/12/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-005-007-009-025-029-033-037-039-045-047-051-053-055-057- 063-071-075-077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-109-113- 117-121-125-122240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ASCENSION ASSUMPTION AVOYELLES CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE VERMILION WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-037-045-047-059-109-113-147-157-122240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0006 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 6 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..02/12/25 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-023-025-035-047-053-091-097-099-119-129-131-122240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH DALLAS ESCAMBIA MARENGO MOBILE MONROE SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX LAC041-065-107-122240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN MADISON TENSAS MSC021-023-029-031-035-039-041-049-061-063-065-067-069-073-075- 077-079-085-089-091-099-101-111-121-123-127-129-131-149-153- 122240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW POE TO 10 W ESF TO 20 SSW MLU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088 ..MOORE..02/12/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-005-007-009-011-019-025-029-033-037-039-045-047-051- 053-055-057-059-063-071-075-077-079-087-089-091-093-095-097-099- 101-103-105-109-113-117-121-125-122140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION ASSUMPTION AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE VERMILION WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-037-045-047-059-109-113-147-157-122140- Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into western GA. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...20z Update... The prior forecast remain valid with only minor changes to the thunder area over parts of east TX and parts of AR. Multiple bands of convection along the surging cold front over the Sabine Valley should continue to steadily intensify as broad height falls from the advancing trough overspread the western edge of the warm sector characterized by surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. These storms should eventually coalesce into a broader QLCS as the front accelerates. 50-60 kt of deep-layer shear will support organization into bowing segments and embedded supercell structures. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes appear likely. Farther east over southern LA, MS and AL, strong low-level warm advection is occurring in the vicinity of an east-west oriented warm front and weak frontal cyclone rapidly lifting north over the southern Gulf Coast. As ascent intensifies with the approach of the upper trough, strong observed pressure falls of 2-3 mb per hour will rapidly advect pristine upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints (evident on the 18z LIX sounding) northward. Several bands of convection (including a few supercells) have developed and should continue to intensify through the afternoon. The rapid air mass modification/destabilization will overlap with substantial vertical shear, supporting supercells capable of all hazards, including a strong tornado. The severe threat will likely persist through the evening and overnight hours as the emerging QLCS shifts eastward in the narrowing warm sector over eastern AL and western GA. Despite waning buoyancy, continued advection of near 60 F surface dewpoints and very strong low-level shear (ESRH 300-400 m2/s2) will support the risk for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts where the line can stay near-surface based overnight. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into western GA. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...20z Update... The prior forecast remain valid with only minor changes to the thunder area over parts of east TX and parts of AR. Multiple bands of convection along the surging cold front over the Sabine Valley should continue to steadily intensify as broad height falls from the advancing trough overspread the western edge of the warm sector characterized by surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. These storms should eventually coalesce into a broader QLCS as the front accelerates. 50-60 kt of deep-layer shear will support organization into bowing segments and embedded supercell structures. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes appear likely. Farther east over southern LA, MS and AL, strong low-level warm advection is occurring in the vicinity of an east-west oriented warm front and weak frontal cyclone rapidly lifting north over the southern Gulf Coast. As ascent intensifies with the approach of the upper trough, strong observed pressure falls of 2-3 mb per hour will rapidly advect pristine upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints (evident on the 18z LIX sounding) northward. Several bands of convection (including a few supercells) have developed and should continue to intensify through the afternoon. The rapid air mass modification/destabilization will overlap with substantial vertical shear, supporting supercells capable of all hazards, including a strong tornado. The severe threat will likely persist through the evening and overnight hours as the emerging QLCS shifts eastward in the narrowing warm sector over eastern AL and western GA. Despite waning buoyancy, continued advection of near 60 F surface dewpoints and very strong low-level shear (ESRH 300-400 m2/s2) will support the risk for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts where the line can stay near-surface based overnight. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into western GA. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...20z Update... The prior forecast remain valid with only minor changes to the thunder area over parts of east TX and parts of AR. Multiple bands of convection along the surging cold front over the Sabine Valley should continue to steadily intensify as broad height falls from the advancing trough overspread the western edge of the warm sector characterized by surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. These storms should eventually coalesce into a broader QLCS as the front accelerates. 50-60 kt of deep-layer shear will support organization into bowing segments and embedded supercell structures. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes appear likely. Farther east over southern LA, MS and AL, strong low-level warm advection is occurring in the vicinity of an east-west oriented warm front and weak frontal cyclone rapidly lifting north over the southern Gulf Coast. As ascent intensifies with the approach of the upper trough, strong observed pressure falls of 2-3 mb per hour will rapidly advect pristine upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints (evident on the 18z LIX sounding) northward. Several bands of convection (including a few supercells) have developed and should continue to intensify through the afternoon. The rapid air mass modification/destabilization will overlap with substantial vertical shear, supporting supercells capable of all hazards, including a strong tornado. The severe threat will likely persist through the evening and overnight hours as the emerging QLCS shifts eastward in the narrowing warm sector over eastern AL and western GA. Despite waning buoyancy, continued advection of near 60 F surface dewpoints and very strong low-level shear (ESRH 300-400 m2/s2) will support the risk for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts where the line can stay near-surface based overnight. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into western GA. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...20z Update... The prior forecast remain valid with only minor changes to the thunder area over parts of east TX and parts of AR. Multiple bands of convection along the surging cold front over the Sabine Valley should continue to steadily intensify as broad height falls from the advancing trough overspread the western edge of the warm sector characterized by surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. These storms should eventually coalesce into a broader QLCS as the front accelerates. 50-60 kt of deep-layer shear will support organization into bowing segments and embedded supercell structures. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes appear likely. Farther east over southern LA, MS and AL, strong low-level warm advection is occurring in the vicinity of an east-west oriented warm front and weak frontal cyclone rapidly lifting north over the southern Gulf Coast. As ascent intensifies with the approach of the upper trough, strong observed pressure falls of 2-3 mb per hour will rapidly advect pristine upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints (evident on the 18z LIX sounding) northward. Several bands of convection (including a few supercells) have developed and should continue to intensify through the afternoon. The rapid air mass modification/destabilization will overlap with substantial vertical shear, supporting supercells capable of all hazards, including a strong tornado. The severe threat will likely persist through the evening and overnight hours as the emerging QLCS shifts eastward in the narrowing warm sector over eastern AL and western GA. Despite waning buoyancy, continued advection of near 60 F surface dewpoints and very strong low-level shear (ESRH 300-400 m2/s2) will support the risk for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts where the line can stay near-surface based overnight. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into western GA. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...20z Update... The prior forecast remain valid with only minor changes to the thunder area over parts of east TX and parts of AR. Multiple bands of convection along the surging cold front over the Sabine Valley should continue to steadily intensify as broad height falls from the advancing trough overspread the western edge of the warm sector characterized by surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. These storms should eventually coalesce into a broader QLCS as the front accelerates. 50-60 kt of deep-layer shear will support organization into bowing segments and embedded supercell structures. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes appear likely. Farther east over southern LA, MS and AL, strong low-level warm advection is occurring in the vicinity of an east-west oriented warm front and weak frontal cyclone rapidly lifting north over the southern Gulf Coast. As ascent intensifies with the approach of the upper trough, strong observed pressure falls of 2-3 mb per hour will rapidly advect pristine upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints (evident on the 18z LIX sounding) northward. Several bands of convection (including a few supercells) have developed and should continue to intensify through the afternoon. The rapid air mass modification/destabilization will overlap with substantial vertical shear, supporting supercells capable of all hazards, including a strong tornado. The severe threat will likely persist through the evening and overnight hours as the emerging QLCS shifts eastward in the narrowing warm sector over eastern AL and western GA. Despite waning buoyancy, continued advection of near 60 F surface dewpoints and very strong low-level shear (ESRH 300-400 m2/s2) will support the risk for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts where the line can stay near-surface based overnight. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. Read more