Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur this evening across coastal southern California. ...California... Some convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur across coastal southern California this evening in association with a low-topped organized convective line ongoing near the LA Metro area. Local WSR-88D VWP data suggests around 40-50 kt west-southwesterly winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL, while the 00z observed sounding from Vandenberg sampled around 100 J/kg SBCAPE. Otherwise, the potential for some stronger storms over the interior valley of central California is expected to steadily diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools and the parent shortwave trough continues eastward tonight toward the Great Basin. ..Guyer.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur this evening across coastal southern California. ...California... Some convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur across coastal southern California this evening in association with a low-topped organized convective line ongoing near the LA Metro area. Local WSR-88D VWP data suggests around 40-50 kt west-southwesterly winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL, while the 00z observed sounding from Vandenberg sampled around 100 J/kg SBCAPE. Otherwise, the potential for some stronger storms over the interior valley of central California is expected to steadily diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools and the parent shortwave trough continues eastward tonight toward the Great Basin. ..Guyer.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur this evening across coastal southern California. ...California... Some convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur across coastal southern California this evening in association with a low-topped organized convective line ongoing near the LA Metro area. Local WSR-88D VWP data suggests around 40-50 kt west-southwesterly winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL, while the 00z observed sounding from Vandenberg sampled around 100 J/kg SBCAPE. Otherwise, the potential for some stronger storms over the interior valley of central California is expected to steadily diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools and the parent shortwave trough continues eastward tonight toward the Great Basin. ..Guyer.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur this evening across coastal southern California. ...California... Some convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur across coastal southern California this evening in association with a low-topped organized convective line ongoing near the LA Metro area. Local WSR-88D VWP data suggests around 40-50 kt west-southwesterly winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL, while the 00z observed sounding from Vandenberg sampled around 100 J/kg SBCAPE. Otherwise, the potential for some stronger storms over the interior valley of central California is expected to steadily diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools and the parent shortwave trough continues eastward tonight toward the Great Basin. ..Guyer.. 02/14/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 13 22:50:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 13 22:50:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS, with a surface low deepening across the eastern CONUS on Day 3 (Saturday). Downslope westerly surface flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southwestern Texas Saturday afternoon, overspreading drying fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS as surface high pressure and associated colder air overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions through much of next week. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into southwestern Texas. However, confidence in widespread Critical conditions is low at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS, with a surface low deepening across the eastern CONUS on Day 3 (Saturday). Downslope westerly surface flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southwestern Texas Saturday afternoon, overspreading drying fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS as surface high pressure and associated colder air overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions through much of next week. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into southwestern Texas. However, confidence in widespread Critical conditions is low at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS, with a surface low deepening across the eastern CONUS on Day 3 (Saturday). Downslope westerly surface flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southwestern Texas Saturday afternoon, overspreading drying fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS as surface high pressure and associated colder air overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions through much of next week. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into southwestern Texas. However, confidence in widespread Critical conditions is low at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS, with a surface low deepening across the eastern CONUS on Day 3 (Saturday). Downslope westerly surface flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southwestern Texas Saturday afternoon, overspreading drying fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS as surface high pressure and associated colder air overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions through much of next week. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into southwestern Texas. However, confidence in widespread Critical conditions is low at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS, with a surface low deepening across the eastern CONUS on Day 3 (Saturday). Downslope westerly surface flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southwestern Texas Saturday afternoon, overspreading drying fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS as surface high pressure and associated colder air overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions through much of next week. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into southwestern Texas. However, confidence in widespread Critical conditions is low at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS, with a surface low deepening across the eastern CONUS on Day 3 (Saturday). Downslope westerly surface flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southwestern Texas Saturday afternoon, overspreading drying fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS as surface high pressure and associated colder air overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions through much of next week. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into southwestern Texas. However, confidence in widespread Critical conditions is low at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0096 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Areas affected...The Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys in central California Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132046Z - 132245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon hours within the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys in central California. Stronger/deeper storms will be capable of isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado given sufficient low-level wind shear. DISCUSSION...Isolated deep convection has been gradually developing within the southern Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valley over the past hour or so. These storms have developed within a small pocket where cloud breaks have allowed surface temperatures to warm into the upper 50s and low 60s, which are required to support deep, surface-based convection. Overall, poor mid-level lapse rates are limiting (and will continue to limit) buoyancy with maximum MUCAPE values of around 250-500 J/kg noted in recent mesoanalysis estimates. However, strong deep-layer wind shear (effective bulk shear of around 40-45 knots) is in place across the region as a mid-level jet associated with an approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Additionally, backed low-level flow within the valley is supporting 0-1 km SRH values on the order of about 100 m2/s2. As a result, organization of deeper, longer lived cells appears possible with an attendant threat of severe winds and perhaps a brief tornado (small hail is also possible, but the limited buoyancy and duration of individual cells casts uncertainty on the severe hail potential). This threat will likely be confined to the valleys and is expected to be too sporadic/isolated to warrant watch issuance. ..Moore/Thompson.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR... LAT...LON 36402012 36322034 36302060 36462090 36762115 37322139 37972161 38772186 39132192 39352182 39442168 39542152 39542122 39392111 38672074 38092038 37612006 37321985 37021975 36751975 36511997 36402012 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0147 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible in parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. Clearing behind morning showers associated with WAA has allowed surface temperatures to rise into the upper 50s, with dew points reaching the low 50s. Upper level cold-air advection will result in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range, supporting weak airmass destabilization through this afternoon. With favorable shear profiles, current expectations is for a few stronger updrafts to take on transient supercell structures within the Central Valley, with the threat for marginally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Southeast... The lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this afternoon, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast into tonight. The surface low associated with this system continues to progress northeastward into far northern New England/southern Quebec. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through the eastern seaboard and off the Florida Coast. Although MUCAPE has approached 1500-2000 j/kg ahead of the front, deep layer shear has continued to decrease as the strongest dynamics continue to depart as the trough progresses further northeast, and boundary parallel flow will likely suppress any significant updraft organization. In turn, midday convection has continued to weaken, with additional weakening expected through the rest of the afternoon. Have opted to drop the marginal risk across the Florida panhandle. A few brief gusts of winds are still possible with any stronger updrafts, but any severe threat remaining appears to be minute. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more