Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast generally remains on track. The area delineating Extremely Critical fire-weather potential has been expanded farther south to encompass more area of far West Texas. No other changes were made to the Extremely Critical area, although some consideration was given to expand the area farther east into Northwest Texas. High-resolution ensemble guidance currently indicates potential for Extremely Critical conditions into this region, but too brief to warrant expansion at this time. Elsewhere, refinements were made to the western portions of the Elevated and Critical areas, mainly to remove northwestern portions of New Mexico where cool temperatures behind a Pacific cold front should now limit fire-weather potential despite the presence of dry/breezy conditions. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... The second and larger in a series of mid-level troughs will traverse the Southern Rockies tomorrow (Monday), encouraging rapid surface low development along the High Plains. Behind a trailing surface dryline, widespread dry and windy conditions will prevail for several hours Monday afternoon, promoting dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will become common across much of New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and western Texas, necessitating the introduction of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depict a belt of 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 5-10 percent RH for at least a few hours across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. In this area, fuel receptiveness is approaching critical thresholds, and when considering the intense winds with very low RH, at least localized to potentially widespread extreme wildfire-spread behavior is possible, with Extremely Critical highlights introduced. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The southwestern most extent of these storms may occur across portions of western Texas into Oklahoma, which may temper wildfire-spread concerns in the northeastern portions of the Elevated and Critical highlights. As such, these particular highlights may need considerable adjustments in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast generally remains on track. The area delineating Extremely Critical fire-weather potential has been expanded farther south to encompass more area of far West Texas. No other changes were made to the Extremely Critical area, although some consideration was given to expand the area farther east into Northwest Texas. High-resolution ensemble guidance currently indicates potential for Extremely Critical conditions into this region, but too brief to warrant expansion at this time. Elsewhere, refinements were made to the western portions of the Elevated and Critical areas, mainly to remove northwestern portions of New Mexico where cool temperatures behind a Pacific cold front should now limit fire-weather potential despite the presence of dry/breezy conditions. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... The second and larger in a series of mid-level troughs will traverse the Southern Rockies tomorrow (Monday), encouraging rapid surface low development along the High Plains. Behind a trailing surface dryline, widespread dry and windy conditions will prevail for several hours Monday afternoon, promoting dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will become common across much of New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and western Texas, necessitating the introduction of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depict a belt of 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 5-10 percent RH for at least a few hours across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. In this area, fuel receptiveness is approaching critical thresholds, and when considering the intense winds with very low RH, at least localized to potentially widespread extreme wildfire-spread behavior is possible, with Extremely Critical highlights introduced. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The southwestern most extent of these storms may occur across portions of western Texas into Oklahoma, which may temper wildfire-spread concerns in the northeastern portions of the Elevated and Critical highlights. As such, these particular highlights may need considerable adjustments in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast generally remains on track. The area delineating Extremely Critical fire-weather potential has been expanded farther south to encompass more area of far West Texas. No other changes were made to the Extremely Critical area, although some consideration was given to expand the area farther east into Northwest Texas. High-resolution ensemble guidance currently indicates potential for Extremely Critical conditions into this region, but too brief to warrant expansion at this time. Elsewhere, refinements were made to the western portions of the Elevated and Critical areas, mainly to remove northwestern portions of New Mexico where cool temperatures behind a Pacific cold front should now limit fire-weather potential despite the presence of dry/breezy conditions. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... The second and larger in a series of mid-level troughs will traverse the Southern Rockies tomorrow (Monday), encouraging rapid surface low development along the High Plains. Behind a trailing surface dryline, widespread dry and windy conditions will prevail for several hours Monday afternoon, promoting dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will become common across much of New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and western Texas, necessitating the introduction of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depict a belt of 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 5-10 percent RH for at least a few hours across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. In this area, fuel receptiveness is approaching critical thresholds, and when considering the intense winds with very low RH, at least localized to potentially widespread extreme wildfire-spread behavior is possible, with Extremely Critical highlights introduced. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The southwestern most extent of these storms may occur across portions of western Texas into Oklahoma, which may temper wildfire-spread concerns in the northeastern portions of the Elevated and Critical highlights. As such, these particular highlights may need considerable adjustments in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms will bring the potential for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and isolated large hail for parts of the southern Plains Monday night. ...Synopsis... Shortwave, upper-level ridging across the southern Plains will give way to a strong upper trough progressing eastward through the Southwest on Monday. The strongest mid-level height falls are expected to occur during the late evening/overnight period into Tuesday morning. As this trough approaches, a central High Plains surface low will deepen and evolve southeastward with time. A Pacific front will be the focus for thunderstorm development from central/eastern Kansas into the Hill Country/Central Texas. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the Pacific front late Monday night as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the region. The highly amplified/meridional mid/upper-level winds will promote a rapid transition to a linear storm mode. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates could lead to briefly higher potential for large hail from initial supercells, but the strong signal for a linear storm mode would suggest large hail will likely remain isolated. Strong low-level wind fields are expected along and ahead of this line of activity. With at least low 60s F dewpoints expected in parts central/eastern Oklahoma into North/Central Texas, storms will be near-surface based to surface based and capable of damaging wind gusts. Low-level hodographs will also be enlarged across the warm sector. The exact magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit uncertain given the linear storm mode as well as marginal low-level instability during the overnight. However, the strength of the low-level shear will be sufficient to at least conditionally support a few QLCS tornadoes. The eastern extent of the threat will be limited by decreasing buoyancy into far eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas. The southern edge of the activity also is not clear. However, storms on the southern flank may have a greater potential to produce large hail. Confidence in the location of this activity is too low to increase hail probabilities at this time. ...Eastern Kansas... How far north surface-based storms will occur remains in question. It appears that there is at least marginal potential for strong/damaging surface gusts near the surface low track in southeast Kansas. Isolated large hail is also possible. In northeast Kansas, there is a signal for convection to develop on the nose of the low-level jet in some guidance. These storms would likely be elevated and have limited potential for damaging winds. Steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear would promote some large hail risk. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more