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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more