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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 Read more

MD 0226 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0226 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...south-central into eastern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161438Z - 161615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some damaging wind gusts are possible this morning to early afternoon across south-central and eastern Kentucky. DISCUSSION...A line of storms has developed along the cold front in central Kentucky. Ahead of these storms, dewpoints are in the mid 50s with abundant sunshine. MLCAPE is currently around 250 J/kg and may increase to around 500 J/kg by later this morning. The front is oriented parallel to the deep-layer flow across this region which is not overly favorable for a wind producing line of storms. However, strong lower tropospheric flow is present (vertically increasing to 60 knots by 3km per JKL VWP) and in the presence of thunderstorms and steepening low-level lapse rates, some of this stronger flow may mix to the surface. A watch is not anticipated. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK... LAT...LON 36788612 37368511 37808443 38098345 38198273 38038235 37598236 36878292 36608338 36628479 36648586 36718611 36788612 Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE AYS TO 25 ESE SAV TO 35 S OGB TO 35 SSE OGB AND 40 NE AYS TO 20 SSW SAV TO 30 SSE OGB TO 10 SSW FLO TO 30 NE FLO TO 30 WSW RDU. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...CHS...RAH...ILM...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-051-179-191-161640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CHATHAM LIBERTY MCINTOSH NCC001-017-019-037-047-051-063-065-069-077-083-085-093-101-105- 125-127-129-135-141-145-155-163-181-183-185-191-195-161640- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CHATHAM COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LEE MOORE NASH NEW HANOVER ORANGE PENDER PERSON ROBESON SAMPSON VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE VLD TO 15 SW AYS TO 30 SE VDI. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-053-067-075-083- 089-107-109-121-125-161640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO LAFAYETTE LEVY MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE UNION GAC025-039-049-065-101-127-229-299-305-161640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN PIERCE WARE WAYNE Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC007-009-013-019-029-031-053-055-059-067-079-081-085-099-105- 111-115-119-121-127-133-151-153-155-157-163-167-161640- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHTABULA ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GALLIA GEAUGA GUERNSEY HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON LAKE MAHONING MEIGS MONROE MORGAN MUSKINGUM NOBLE PERRY PORTAGE STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS VINTON WASHINGTON PAC003-005-007-019-031-039-049-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-121- 125-129-161640- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BUTLER CLARION CRAWFORD ERIE FAYETTE FOREST Read more

MD 0224 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 51... FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0224 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0849 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...northeast South Carolina...eastern and central North Carolina...and southeast Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 51... Valid 161349Z - 161545Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51 continues. SUMMARY...Gradual destabilization is occurring across eastern North Carolina. A downstream tornado watch will eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms, well oriented to the deep-layer shear vector, is moving across south-central North Carolina and northern South Carolina. Currently instability is relatively weak ahead of this line (MLCAPE <250 J/kg). However, visible satellite shows some breaks in the clouds and temperatures have already increased 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit across eastern North Carolina. If temperatures warm into the low 70s with the presence of low to mid 60s dewpoints already in place, sufficient instability should develop to maintain and perhaps strengthen this line of storms at is moves east through the morning and into the early afternoon. If weak destabilization occurs as current observational trends suggest, a downstream tornado watch will eventually be needed across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE... LAT...LON 33267915 33667981 34458008 35458019 36237999 36807956 37357866 37517774 37447666 37217623 37027595 36617578 36247566 35927550 35647540 35327544 35187551 35077590 34707634 34527653 34627675 34597709 34287762 34067778 33747792 33857828 33687874 33267915 Read more

MD 0225 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON FOR EASTERN OHIO...MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0225 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0904 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...eastern Ohio...much of West Virginia...and western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 161404Z - 161530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch is needed soon across eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and much of West Virginia. DISCUSSION...An area of clearing has developed across eastern Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania this morning. This clearing should permit a period of solar insolation which will destabilize much of the region by late morning. Minimal inhibition was present on the 12Z RAOBs from PIT and ILN. Therefore, only minimal heating should be required for a line of storms to develop. A very strong wind profile across the region will support organized storms and provide ambient synoptic flow which can easily mix damaging winds to the surface within any convection. In addition, low-level shear is very strong with over 450 m2/s2 0-1km SRH (per PBZ VWP). Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern from the fast moving squall line which is expected to develop. However, given the strong shear, some line-embedded tornadoes will also be possible. Initially, a line of storms will likely develop where some lightning has already occurred within a pre-frontal trough feature across eastern Ohio and into western West Virginia with an additional line of storms expected along the cold front which is currently moving through central Ohio and central Kentucky. Eventually expect the line of storms along the cold front to become the dominant squall line by this afternoon as these storms advance east. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE... LAT...LON 38677985 37628173 37838228 38438220 39688203 41058162 41758140 41918087 41968051 41957955 41947884 41447877 41037870 40177889 38957953 38677985 Read more

MD 0223 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 51...52... FOR EASTERN GEORGIA...FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0223 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0831 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Georgia...far southern South Carolina...and northern Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 51...52... Valid 161331Z - 161500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51, 52 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind and tornado threat to continue through the morning. DISCUSSION...A line of storms with embedded supercells continues to move east across the Southeast. Instability is mostly weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) ahead of this line with slightly better instability across north Florida where upper 60s dewpoints are present. This line of storms has now moved well ahead of the synoptic cold front. Therefore, given the weakening forcing, the strongest storms will likely be in north Florida this morning. However, very strong low-level shear is present ahead of the entire line of storms with over 400 m2/s2 0-1km SRH per CLX VWP where a 60 knot low-level jet is present. Given the strong low-level shear, damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes will be possible through the morning despite the relatively weak instability and forcing. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 29598426 30548354 31738248 32138206 32538172 32868161 33228139 33438078 33247988 32997957 32827953 32528005 32228044 31898086 31138126 30518134 30208132 29728233 29418306 29598426 Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0053 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW AYS TO 25 S AGS TO 20 WNW OGB TO 5 E CAE TO 40 SSW CLT. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...CHS...RAH...ILM...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 51 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-031-043-051-103-109-165-179-183-191-251-267-161540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN BULLOCH CANDLER CHATHAM EFFINGHAM EVANS JENKINS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH SCREVEN TATTNALL NCC001-007-017-019-037-047-051-057-063-065-067-069-077-081-083- 085-093-101-105-123-125-127-129-135-141-145-151-153-155-163-165- 167-181-183-185-191-195-161540- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ANSON BLADEN BRUNSWICK CHATHAM COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LEE MONTGOMERY MOORE Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 52 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-053-067-075-083- 089-107-109-121-125-161540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO LAFAYETTE LEVY MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE UNION GAC001-005-025-039-049-065-101-127-229-299-305-161540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING BACON BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN PIERCE WARE WAYNE Read more

MD 0222 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...North Florida and southeast Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161128Z - 161300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A broken band of storms will spread eastward into southeast Georgia and north Florida through late morning. A new tornado watch appears likely. DISCUSSION...A broken band of storms has persisted overnight from south central GA into the eastern FL Panhandle, with occasional/embedded supercell structures. Low-level moistening over the next few hours and the onset of diurnal heating will drive destabilization across north FL/southeast GA later this morning. Though the low-level jet core will develop northeastward toward the Carolinas through the day, low-level flow/shear will remain sufficiently strong to support additional supercells through the morning across north FL/southeast GA. The storms will remain capable of producing occasional damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes, and a new tornado watch will likely be needed from 12-13z. ..Thompson/Smith.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 31288133 30368164 29908202 29548247 29388309 29388323 29808337 30538324 31158280 31698236 31748192 31288133 Read more