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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more