Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK... A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity, robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon. With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low. Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible, with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid strengthening warm advection. This should result in a forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant greater probabilities. ...Mid-South to New England... A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South, with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies. Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also offer a threat for isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK... A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity, robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon. With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low. Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible, with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid strengthening warm advection. This should result in a forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant greater probabilities. ...Mid-South to New England... A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South, with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies. Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also offer a threat for isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK... A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity, robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon. With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low. Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible, with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid strengthening warm advection. This should result in a forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant greater probabilities. ...Mid-South to New England... A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South, with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies. Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also offer a threat for isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK... A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity, robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon. With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low. Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible, with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid strengthening warm advection. This should result in a forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant greater probabilities. ...Mid-South to New England... A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South, with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies. Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also offer a threat for isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK... A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity, robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon. With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low. Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible, with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid strengthening warm advection. This should result in a forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant greater probabilities. ...Mid-South to New England... A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South, with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies. Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also offer a threat for isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK... A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity, robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon. With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low. Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible, with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid strengthening warm advection. This should result in a forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant greater probabilities. ...Mid-South to New England... A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South, with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies. Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also offer a threat for isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK... A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity, robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon. With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low. Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible, with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid strengthening warm advection. This should result in a forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant greater probabilities. ...Mid-South to New England... A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South, with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies. Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also offer a threat for isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK... A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity, robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon. With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low. Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible, with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid strengthening warm advection. This should result in a forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant greater probabilities. ...Mid-South to New England... A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South, with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies. Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also offer a threat for isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK... A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity, robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon. With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low. Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible, with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid strengthening warm advection. This should result in a forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant greater probabilities. ...Mid-South to New England... A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South, with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies. Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also offer a threat for isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK... A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity, robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon. With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low. Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible, with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid strengthening warm advection. This should result in a forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant greater probabilities. ...Mid-South to New England... A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South, with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies. Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also offer a threat for isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern Texas. ...Southern High Plains... Mid-level height falls across the lower CO River Valley are beginning to dislodge an upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to advance to near the AZ/NM border by 18z, then into the southern Rockies by 05/00z. Latest model guidance suggests 500 mb flow in excess of 40kt will translate across southern NM into the TX Panhandle by peak heating. Some pressure reduction is expected across the southern High Plains ahead of this feature, and a LLJ should develop after sunset from west TX into southeast NM. This large-scale evolution favors low-level moisture being drawn into the higher terrain of northern NM. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across southwestern NM, but modest heating will contribute to destabilization across much of eastern NM by late afternoon. Current thinking is scattered robust convection, including supercells, should generate across the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristo range, then spread east ahead of the short wave. Forecast soundings favor hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts. A brief tornado or two can also not be ruled out as this activity spreads toward the southern TX Panhandle. ...Elsewhere... A narrow corridor of high PW air mass (1.75-2 inches) will extend across eastern TX-AR-southern MO-IL-southern lower MI. Poor lapse rates will be noted along this corridor, but modest instability and adequate 0-6km shear suggest a few robust storms could evolve that would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy will be its greatest. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern Texas. ...Southern High Plains... Mid-level height falls across the lower CO River Valley are beginning to dislodge an upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to advance to near the AZ/NM border by 18z, then into the southern Rockies by 05/00z. Latest model guidance suggests 500 mb flow in excess of 40kt will translate across southern NM into the TX Panhandle by peak heating. Some pressure reduction is expected across the southern High Plains ahead of this feature, and a LLJ should develop after sunset from west TX into southeast NM. This large-scale evolution favors low-level moisture being drawn into the higher terrain of northern NM. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across southwestern NM, but modest heating will contribute to destabilization across much of eastern NM by late afternoon. Current thinking is scattered robust convection, including supercells, should generate across the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristo range, then spread east ahead of the short wave. Forecast soundings favor hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts. A brief tornado or two can also not be ruled out as this activity spreads toward the southern TX Panhandle. ...Elsewhere... A narrow corridor of high PW air mass (1.75-2 inches) will extend across eastern TX-AR-southern MO-IL-southern lower MI. Poor lapse rates will be noted along this corridor, but modest instability and adequate 0-6km shear suggest a few robust storms could evolve that would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy will be its greatest. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern Texas. ...Southern High Plains... Mid-level height falls across the lower CO River Valley are beginning to dislodge an upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to advance to near the AZ/NM border by 18z, then into the southern Rockies by 05/00z. Latest model guidance suggests 500 mb flow in excess of 40kt will translate across southern NM into the TX Panhandle by peak heating. Some pressure reduction is expected across the southern High Plains ahead of this feature, and a LLJ should develop after sunset from west TX into southeast NM. This large-scale evolution favors low-level moisture being drawn into the higher terrain of northern NM. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across southwestern NM, but modest heating will contribute to destabilization across much of eastern NM by late afternoon. Current thinking is scattered robust convection, including supercells, should generate across the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristo range, then spread east ahead of the short wave. Forecast soundings favor hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts. A brief tornado or two can also not be ruled out as this activity spreads toward the southern TX Panhandle. ...Elsewhere... A narrow corridor of high PW air mass (1.75-2 inches) will extend across eastern TX-AR-southern MO-IL-southern lower MI. Poor lapse rates will be noted along this corridor, but modest instability and adequate 0-6km shear suggest a few robust storms could evolve that would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy will be its greatest. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern Texas. ...Southern High Plains... Mid-level height falls across the lower CO River Valley are beginning to dislodge an upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to advance to near the AZ/NM border by 18z, then into the southern Rockies by 05/00z. Latest model guidance suggests 500 mb flow in excess of 40kt will translate across southern NM into the TX Panhandle by peak heating. Some pressure reduction is expected across the southern High Plains ahead of this feature, and a LLJ should develop after sunset from west TX into southeast NM. This large-scale evolution favors low-level moisture being drawn into the higher terrain of northern NM. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across southwestern NM, but modest heating will contribute to destabilization across much of eastern NM by late afternoon. Current thinking is scattered robust convection, including supercells, should generate across the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristo range, then spread east ahead of the short wave. Forecast soundings favor hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts. A brief tornado or two can also not be ruled out as this activity spreads toward the southern TX Panhandle. ...Elsewhere... A narrow corridor of high PW air mass (1.75-2 inches) will extend across eastern TX-AR-southern MO-IL-southern lower MI. Poor lapse rates will be noted along this corridor, but modest instability and adequate 0-6km shear suggest a few robust storms could evolve that would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy will be its greatest. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern Texas. ...Southern High Plains... Mid-level height falls across the lower CO River Valley are beginning to dislodge an upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to advance to near the AZ/NM border by 18z, then into the southern Rockies by 05/00z. Latest model guidance suggests 500 mb flow in excess of 40kt will translate across southern NM into the TX Panhandle by peak heating. Some pressure reduction is expected across the southern High Plains ahead of this feature, and a LLJ should develop after sunset from west TX into southeast NM. This large-scale evolution favors low-level moisture being drawn into the higher terrain of northern NM. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across southwestern NM, but modest heating will contribute to destabilization across much of eastern NM by late afternoon. Current thinking is scattered robust convection, including supercells, should generate across the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristo range, then spread east ahead of the short wave. Forecast soundings favor hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts. A brief tornado or two can also not be ruled out as this activity spreads toward the southern TX Panhandle. ...Elsewhere... A narrow corridor of high PW air mass (1.75-2 inches) will extend across eastern TX-AR-southern MO-IL-southern lower MI. Poor lapse rates will be noted along this corridor, but modest instability and adequate 0-6km shear suggest a few robust storms could evolve that would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy will be its greatest. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern Texas. ...Southern High Plains... Mid-level height falls across the lower CO River Valley are beginning to dislodge an upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to advance to near the AZ/NM border by 18z, then into the southern Rockies by 05/00z. Latest model guidance suggests 500 mb flow in excess of 40kt will translate across southern NM into the TX Panhandle by peak heating. Some pressure reduction is expected across the southern High Plains ahead of this feature, and a LLJ should develop after sunset from west TX into southeast NM. This large-scale evolution favors low-level moisture being drawn into the higher terrain of northern NM. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across southwestern NM, but modest heating will contribute to destabilization across much of eastern NM by late afternoon. Current thinking is scattered robust convection, including supercells, should generate across the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristo range, then spread east ahead of the short wave. Forecast soundings favor hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts. A brief tornado or two can also not be ruled out as this activity spreads toward the southern TX Panhandle. ...Elsewhere... A narrow corridor of high PW air mass (1.75-2 inches) will extend across eastern TX-AR-southern MO-IL-southern lower MI. Poor lapse rates will be noted along this corridor, but modest instability and adequate 0-6km shear suggest a few robust storms could evolve that would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy will be its greatest. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern Texas. ...Southern High Plains... Mid-level height falls across the lower CO River Valley are beginning to dislodge an upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to advance to near the AZ/NM border by 18z, then into the southern Rockies by 05/00z. Latest model guidance suggests 500 mb flow in excess of 40kt will translate across southern NM into the TX Panhandle by peak heating. Some pressure reduction is expected across the southern High Plains ahead of this feature, and a LLJ should develop after sunset from west TX into southeast NM. This large-scale evolution favors low-level moisture being drawn into the higher terrain of northern NM. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across southwestern NM, but modest heating will contribute to destabilization across much of eastern NM by late afternoon. Current thinking is scattered robust convection, including supercells, should generate across the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristo range, then spread east ahead of the short wave. Forecast soundings favor hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts. A brief tornado or two can also not be ruled out as this activity spreads toward the southern TX Panhandle. ...Elsewhere... A narrow corridor of high PW air mass (1.75-2 inches) will extend across eastern TX-AR-southern MO-IL-southern lower MI. Poor lapse rates will be noted along this corridor, but modest instability and adequate 0-6km shear suggest a few robust storms could evolve that would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy will be its greatest. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern Texas. ...Southern High Plains... Mid-level height falls across the lower CO River Valley are beginning to dislodge an upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to advance to near the AZ/NM border by 18z, then into the southern Rockies by 05/00z. Latest model guidance suggests 500 mb flow in excess of 40kt will translate across southern NM into the TX Panhandle by peak heating. Some pressure reduction is expected across the southern High Plains ahead of this feature, and a LLJ should develop after sunset from west TX into southeast NM. This large-scale evolution favors low-level moisture being drawn into the higher terrain of northern NM. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across southwestern NM, but modest heating will contribute to destabilization across much of eastern NM by late afternoon. Current thinking is scattered robust convection, including supercells, should generate across the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristo range, then spread east ahead of the short wave. Forecast soundings favor hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts. A brief tornado or two can also not be ruled out as this activity spreads toward the southern TX Panhandle. ...Elsewhere... A narrow corridor of high PW air mass (1.75-2 inches) will extend across eastern TX-AR-southern MO-IL-southern lower MI. Poor lapse rates will be noted along this corridor, but modest instability and adequate 0-6km shear suggest a few robust storms could evolve that would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy will be its greatest. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern Texas. ...Southern High Plains... Mid-level height falls across the lower CO River Valley are beginning to dislodge an upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to advance to near the AZ/NM border by 18z, then into the southern Rockies by 05/00z. Latest model guidance suggests 500 mb flow in excess of 40kt will translate across southern NM into the TX Panhandle by peak heating. Some pressure reduction is expected across the southern High Plains ahead of this feature, and a LLJ should develop after sunset from west TX into southeast NM. This large-scale evolution favors low-level moisture being drawn into the higher terrain of northern NM. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across southwestern NM, but modest heating will contribute to destabilization across much of eastern NM by late afternoon. Current thinking is scattered robust convection, including supercells, should generate across the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristo range, then spread east ahead of the short wave. Forecast soundings favor hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts. A brief tornado or two can also not be ruled out as this activity spreads toward the southern TX Panhandle. ...Elsewhere... A narrow corridor of high PW air mass (1.75-2 inches) will extend across eastern TX-AR-southern MO-IL-southern lower MI. Poor lapse rates will be noted along this corridor, but modest instability and adequate 0-6km shear suggest a few robust storms could evolve that would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy will be its greatest. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern Texas. ...Southern High Plains... Mid-level height falls across the lower CO River Valley are beginning to dislodge an upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to advance to near the AZ/NM border by 18z, then into the southern Rockies by 05/00z. Latest model guidance suggests 500 mb flow in excess of 40kt will translate across southern NM into the TX Panhandle by peak heating. Some pressure reduction is expected across the southern High Plains ahead of this feature, and a LLJ should develop after sunset from west TX into southeast NM. This large-scale evolution favors low-level moisture being drawn into the higher terrain of northern NM. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across southwestern NM, but modest heating will contribute to destabilization across much of eastern NM by late afternoon. Current thinking is scattered robust convection, including supercells, should generate across the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristo range, then spread east ahead of the short wave. Forecast soundings favor hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts. A brief tornado or two can also not be ruled out as this activity spreads toward the southern TX Panhandle. ...Elsewhere... A narrow corridor of high PW air mass (1.75-2 inches) will extend across eastern TX-AR-southern MO-IL-southern lower MI. Poor lapse rates will be noted along this corridor, but modest instability and adequate 0-6km shear suggest a few robust storms could evolve that would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy will be its greatest. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/04/2025 Read more