SPC Jun 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 19, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Synopsis and discussion... On Saturday, an upper low will move from ID into Canada, with a mean trough over the Northwest. A belt of strong flow aloft will remain from the eastern Great Basin into eastern MT, coincident with a tight midlevel temperature gradient. At the surface, low pressure will extend from MN into the central High Plains, with drier westerly winds from MT into the Dakotas. To the east, an upper high will remain situated over the TN Valley, with ridge building northward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. While early day storms are possible in a warm advection zone from northern WI across MI and into northern OH, the rising heights associated with this ridge will likely allow these storms to dissipate by late morning. Late day/evening storms may develop over parts of NY into southern New England beneath northwest flow aloft, and this development will be aided by theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Given this influx of instability, potential will exist for isolated marginal storms with hail or gusty winds. To the west, while the upper Great Lakes/upper MS Valley region will be quite unstable, daytime/evening development is less certain given the upper ridge and minimal lift. However, hot temperatures near the surface trough could be a favored area of isolated development. Locally damaging gusts or marginal hail would be the most likely threats. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2025 Read more

SPC MD 1366

2 months 3 weeks ago
MD 1366 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1366 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...central Arkansas into western Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191747Z - 191915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon across central/southern Arkansas into western Mississippi DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along a trailing outflow boundary across central Arkansas and into western Mississippi early this afternoon. Shear is relatively weak (25 knots per LZK VWP) and will be weakening through the day. However, instability is very strong across the region (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) which will support some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts. A watch is unlikely due to the unorganized and expected isolated nature of the threat this afternoon and perhaps into the early evening hours. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 34989428 34729222 33979049 33139012 33139116 33669326 33959393 34199434 34429444 34989428 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC MD 1364

2 months 3 weeks ago
MD 1364 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MID-ATLANTIC REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1364 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic Region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191722Z - 191915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Convection will gradually intensify as they move off the Blue Ridge this afternoon. Damaging winds are the primary hazard, though isolated large hail and a brief tornado or two are also possible. A watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows convection gradually deepening along the Blue Ridge in advance of an upper-level trough. Given the upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints and clear skies ahead of this activity, the boundary-layer will continue to destabilize through the afternoon. 30-35 kts of effective shear will likely mean broken line segments as well as a few supercells. The primary hazard this afternoon will be damaging winds, particularly with any line segments that develop. Isolated large hail is possible, but weak winds at upper levels and poor mid-level lapse rates (sample by morning soundings across the region) should limit that threat. Modest enhancement to the 850 mb winds will promote sufficient low-level shear for the threat of a brief tornado or two. ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 37618051 38657993 40287794 40817698 40697497 40177473 37627670 36947781 36707996 37018057 37618051 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC MD 1365

2 months 3 weeks ago
MD 1365 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1365 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...northeast Georgia...western South Carolina and western North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191732Z - 191900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Low 70s dewpoints and mid 80s temperatures have yielded 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE from northeast Georgia to western North Carolina. This moderate shear and convergence within a lee trough and uncapped environment should result in scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Around 30 knots of shear is being sampled by the GSP VWP which will be sufficient for some storm organization across western South Carolina and western North Carolina. Farther south, much weaker shear is present (15 knots per FFC VWP). Therefore, despite very strong instability, the severe weather threat should remain more isolated. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34268386 35198279 36388164 36628072 36648011 36477919 35547939 34228112 33558207 33438280 33548368 33798394 34268386 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442 Status Reports

2 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0442 Status Updates
940- STATUS REPORT ON WW 442 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RNK...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-191940- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-191940- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-510-191940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442 Status Reports

2 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0442 Status Updates
940- STATUS REPORT ON WW 442 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RNK...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-191940- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-191940- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-510-191940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441 Status Reports

2 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 441 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-013-015-191940- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC003-011-013-015-027-191940- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE WORCESTER NJC003-013-017-031-039-191940- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON PASSAIC UNION Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441 Status Reports

2 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 441 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-013-015-191940- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC003-011-013-015-027-191940- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE WORCESTER NJC003-013-017-031-039-191940- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON PASSAIC UNION Read more
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