Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts are possible across the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest during the day Saturday. Some stronger mid-level flow is forecast to overspread a moderately unstable airmass across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Wind shear will remain modest, but should be sufficient (~25 knots) for some multicells capable of isolated severe wind potential. ...Central High Plains... Moderate instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline which are expected to intersect somewhere around western Nebraska. Some stronger mid-level flow may promote greater storm organization across Wyoming, southeast Montana and western South Dakota. Farther south, mid-level flow is not forecast to be as strong, but shear should still be sufficient for a few organized storms, including the potential for supercells. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts are possible across the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest during the day Saturday. Some stronger mid-level flow is forecast to overspread a moderately unstable airmass across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Wind shear will remain modest, but should be sufficient (~25 knots) for some multicells capable of isolated severe wind potential. ...Central High Plains... Moderate instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline which are expected to intersect somewhere around western Nebraska. Some stronger mid-level flow may promote greater storm organization across Wyoming, southeast Montana and western South Dakota. Farther south, mid-level flow is not forecast to be as strong, but shear should still be sufficient for a few organized storms, including the potential for supercells. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts are possible across the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest during the day Saturday. Some stronger mid-level flow is forecast to overspread a moderately unstable airmass across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Wind shear will remain modest, but should be sufficient (~25 knots) for some multicells capable of isolated severe wind potential. ...Central High Plains... Moderate instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline which are expected to intersect somewhere around western Nebraska. Some stronger mid-level flow may promote greater storm organization across Wyoming, southeast Montana and western South Dakota. Farther south, mid-level flow is not forecast to be as strong, but shear should still be sufficient for a few organized storms, including the potential for supercells. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts are possible across the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest during the day Saturday. Some stronger mid-level flow is forecast to overspread a moderately unstable airmass across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Wind shear will remain modest, but should be sufficient (~25 knots) for some multicells capable of isolated severe wind potential. ...Central High Plains... Moderate instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline which are expected to intersect somewhere around western Nebraska. Some stronger mid-level flow may promote greater storm organization across Wyoming, southeast Montana and western South Dakota. Farther south, mid-level flow is not forecast to be as strong, but shear should still be sufficient for a few organized storms, including the potential for supercells. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts are possible across the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest during the day Saturday. Some stronger mid-level flow is forecast to overspread a moderately unstable airmass across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Wind shear will remain modest, but should be sufficient (~25 knots) for some multicells capable of isolated severe wind potential. ...Central High Plains... Moderate instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline which are expected to intersect somewhere around western Nebraska. Some stronger mid-level flow may promote greater storm organization across Wyoming, southeast Montana and western South Dakota. Farther south, mid-level flow is not forecast to be as strong, but shear should still be sufficient for a few organized storms, including the potential for supercells. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-trough will move off the northeast CONUS into the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, a ridge will move across the Great Lakes with a trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. An additional mid-level trough will move across the Northwest. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As a mid-level trough moves across the northern Plains, a surface low will deepen across eastern North Dakota on Friday. Ahead of this surface low and associated cold front, strong instability is forecast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated along this frontal zone as ascent overspreads the front with an uncapped warm sector. Some embedded shortwave jet streaks will move through the southwesterly flow across the warm sector. Within these zones of stronger mid-level flow, shear may be more favorable and support a greater severe weather threat. However, the locations of these mesoscale regions with a more favorable environment remain uncertain at this time. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-trough will move off the northeast CONUS into the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, a ridge will move across the Great Lakes with a trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. An additional mid-level trough will move across the Northwest. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As a mid-level trough moves across the northern Plains, a surface low will deepen across eastern North Dakota on Friday. Ahead of this surface low and associated cold front, strong instability is forecast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated along this frontal zone as ascent overspreads the front with an uncapped warm sector. Some embedded shortwave jet streaks will move through the southwesterly flow across the warm sector. Within these zones of stronger mid-level flow, shear may be more favorable and support a greater severe weather threat. However, the locations of these mesoscale regions with a more favorable environment remain uncertain at this time. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-trough will move off the northeast CONUS into the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, a ridge will move across the Great Lakes with a trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. An additional mid-level trough will move across the Northwest. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As a mid-level trough moves across the northern Plains, a surface low will deepen across eastern North Dakota on Friday. Ahead of this surface low and associated cold front, strong instability is forecast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated along this frontal zone as ascent overspreads the front with an uncapped warm sector. Some embedded shortwave jet streaks will move through the southwesterly flow across the warm sector. Within these zones of stronger mid-level flow, shear may be more favorable and support a greater severe weather threat. However, the locations of these mesoscale regions with a more favorable environment remain uncertain at this time. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-trough will move off the northeast CONUS into the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, a ridge will move across the Great Lakes with a trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. An additional mid-level trough will move across the Northwest. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As a mid-level trough moves across the northern Plains, a surface low will deepen across eastern North Dakota on Friday. Ahead of this surface low and associated cold front, strong instability is forecast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated along this frontal zone as ascent overspreads the front with an uncapped warm sector. Some embedded shortwave jet streaks will move through the southwesterly flow across the warm sector. Within these zones of stronger mid-level flow, shear may be more favorable and support a greater severe weather threat. However, the locations of these mesoscale regions with a more favorable environment remain uncertain at this time. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-trough will move off the northeast CONUS into the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, a ridge will move across the Great Lakes with a trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. An additional mid-level trough will move across the Northwest. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As a mid-level trough moves across the northern Plains, a surface low will deepen across eastern North Dakota on Friday. Ahead of this surface low and associated cold front, strong instability is forecast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated along this frontal zone as ascent overspreads the front with an uncapped warm sector. Some embedded shortwave jet streaks will move through the southwesterly flow across the warm sector. Within these zones of stronger mid-level flow, shear may be more favorable and support a greater severe weather threat. However, the locations of these mesoscale regions with a more favorable environment remain uncertain at this time. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more