Severe Storms

MD 0123 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0123 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2023 Areas affected...north-central Texas...northwest Texas...and portions of Southwest Texas Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 011735Z - 012130Z SUMMARY...Light to moderate freezing rain will persist into the afternoon from north-central Texas to near Abilene and east of Midland. DISCUSSION...A band of relatively concentrated precipitation has developed from west of San Angelo to northern Texas. This is forming in a zone of weak frontogenesis and warm air advection around 700mb. This will favor heavier precipitation rates in this corridor through the afternoon. The heaviest rates are expected by late afternoon as frontogenesis strengthens and focuses in this region. The last several HRRR runs suggest a mesoscale corridor of total QPF in excess of 0.75 inches. Observations this morning have shown a mix of sleet and freezing rain, but this is expected to transition to mostly freezing rain this afternoon as the cold air becomes more shallow. Icing is expected across most of this region with more significant icing possible where any banding can develop later this afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 02/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32279987 31340090 30670155 30630181 30840188 30930209 31080224 32160156 32870098 33479954 33739759 33729649 33469581 33059609 32679708 32359869 32279987 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN AL/SOUTHWEST GA...... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated strong wind gusts will be possible across the Florida Panhandle and parts of southern Alabama and southwest Georgia, mainly late Thursday night into early Friday morning. ...Parts of the central Gulf Coast... A mid/upper-level trough initially over the southern High Plains is forecast to move eastward toward the Southeast states and begin to weaken Thursday into Thursday night, as it moves into a confluent upper-level flow regime. Richer low-level moisture will gradually spread northward into parts of southern LA/MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle, in advance of a weak surface wave that is forecast to develop along a nearly stationary front near the LA Gulf Coast and move east-northeastward Thursday night into Friday morning. The potential for organized convection appears limited for most of the forecast period. While deep-layer flow/shear will be rather strong, weak midlevel lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to remain less than 500 J/kg. In addition, with stronger large-scale ascent not expected to arrive until late in the period, convection will generally be elevated north of the front for most of the day, within a modest low-level warm advection regime. The greatest relative risk for a few stronger storms is expected late Thursday night into early Friday morning across southern AL/GA and the FL Panhandle, as the primary mid/upper-level trough approaches and somewhat stronger ascent overspreads the warm sector. Isolated strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with any stronger storms in this area. ..Dean.. 02/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... An upper low remains centered over the Baja Peninsula, contributing to broad southwesterly flow aloft which will persist across the southern Plains today. This southwesterly flow aloft supports a large area of stratiform precipitation extending from far west TX eastward/northeastward through the Arklatex towards the Mid-South. The upper low is forecast more progressive today through tomorrow morning, moving across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. As it does warm-air advection/isentropic ascent will increase ahead of it over the southern Plains, with an attendant increase in elevated buoyancy. This buoyancy supports the potential for deeper convective elements capable of lightning production, mainly after 06Z. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/01/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 31 20:13:01 UTC 2023.

MD 0120 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Arkansas...the Missouri Bootheel...western Tennessee...and northern Mississippi Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 312011Z - 010015Z SUMMARY...Light to moderate sleet and freezing rain is expected into the early evening across the middle Mississippi Valley. DISCUSSION...An area of light to moderate precipitation associated with frontogenesis/isentropic ascent continues to spread east across Arkansas this afternoon. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 20s where the heaviest precipitation is currently falling. Current observations show a mixture of sleet and freezing rain across the region. RAP forecast soundings show thermodynamic profiles mostly favorable for freezing rain south of Memphis and sleet north of Memphis. Areas which remain freezing rain through the afternoon/evening could receive significant ice accretion while areas with sleet could receive significant sleet accumulation. Locally higher amounts are also possible as the HRRR has trended farther north with QPF between 12Z and 18Z, which is supported by upstream radar observations. This northward shift could lead to a mesoscale region of QPF approaching 0.5 inches in the Memphis metro area. Icy precipitation is beginning now in the Memphis metro area and will continue through the evening commute. ..Bentley.. 01/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 34569363 36269325 36519156 36419004 36388941 36018833 35038876 34329006 34209251 34239332 34569363 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low through tonight. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm area from central TX into the Ark-La-Tex region has been removed. Lightning activity has recently diminished within the area of precipitation moving across AR and northeast TX. While a few lightning flashes cannot be ruled out for the remainder of this afternoon from northeast TX into the Ark-La-Miss region, increasingly scant elevated buoyancy should generally limit the thunderstorm threat for the remainder of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 01/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023/ ...Discussion... Stable conditions are expected to prevail across much of the CONUS as high surface pressure dominates the sensible weather. The only exceptions are across portions of the southern Plains, where persistent southwesterly flow is contributing to a broad area of precipitation, and southwest AZ, where an upper low is promoting some rain showers. The southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Plains also supports a warm noise above the shallow and cold air mass in place, resulting in modest elevated buoyancy and occasional instances of thunder sleet/freezing rain. Profiles from the latest guidance support a persistence of this thunder potential northeastward into more of eastern OK and western/central AR. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. No changes are needed. ..Supinie.. 01/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are again minimal as an upper low continues to dig south across portions of the south-central CONUS and northern Mexico. As the low ejects east, a secondary surge of cold air will reinforce the airmass across much of the central and eastern US. This cold arctic air along with widespread wintry precipitation will limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions over the majority of the country. With fuels unlikely to be receptive to spread, fire weather appears negligible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An mid/upper-level low initially over Baja California is forecast to move eastward and gradually weaken on Wednesday into early Thursday morning. A broad precipitation plume is expected to develop north of a surface front across much of Texas toward the Ark-La-Miss region. Weak elevated buoyancy may support sporadic lightning flashes within this precipitation plume, especially Wednesday evening into the overnight hours as the primary upper system approaches the region. Convectively enhanced winter precipitation will again be possible across parts of central/north TX into southeast OK/western AR. A separate area of elevated convection may develop near or just offshore of the upper TX coast prior to 12Z Thursday, in closer proximity to the surface front and deeper moisture above the frontal inversion. Despite the presence of rather strong deep-layer flow/shear, instability is expected to remain too weak for a severe threat, with any stronger storms expected to remain offshore. ..Dean.. 01/31/2023 Read more

MD 0119 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0119 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Areas affected...Northeast Texas...eastern Oklahoma...and much of western and central Arkansas Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 311703Z - 312100Z SUMMARY...Sleet/freezing rain is expected to continue through mid-afternoon with some thunderstorms possible. DISCUSSION...A broad precipitation shield has developed this morning in a region of frontogenesis/isentropic ascent across the southern High Plains where temperatures are mostly below freezing. This has resulted in freezing rain across much of Texas and sleet into Oklahoma where the cold air is deeper/warm nose is not as strong. This warm nose is pronounced enough for some elevated instability. Some weak instability was evident on the 12Z FWD RAOB, but based on current thunderstorm observations, has likely evolved to be greater (250-400 J/kg), similar to the RAP forecast soundings. These forecast soundings show some elevated instability persisting to near central Arkansas, before decreasing later this afternoon. Therefore, expect the more convective element of the winter precipitation (and thunderstorm potential) to be greatest between now and mid-afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. A combination of sleet and freezing rain will be possible with sleet more favored farther north and freezing rain to the south. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 01/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33009495 32659576 32279656 32269688 32949705 34619655 35409637 36299463 36359231 35489170 34549207 34519210 33469345 33009495 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Stable conditions are expected to prevail across much of the CONUS as high surface pressure dominates the sensible weather. The only exceptions are across portions of the southern Plains, where persistent southwesterly flow is contributing to a broad area of precipitation, and southwest AZ, where an upper low is promoting some rain showers. The southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Plains also supports a warm noise above the shallow and cold air mass in place, resulting in modest elevated buoyancy and occasional instances of thunder sleet/freezing rain. Profiles from the latest guidance support a persistence of this thunder potential northeastward into more of eastern OK and western/central AR. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0936 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track, and no changes are needed. ..Supinie.. 01/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns over much of the CONUS appear minimal through the forecast period. Broad southwesterly flow aloft above a cold and stable arctic airmass is forecast to intensify as an upper low shifts south over northern Mexico. Widespread wintry precipitation, cool temperatures and weak winds are expected to be common over much of the central US. Gusty winds and modestly dry surface conditions are possible over portions of the Southwest sheltered from the arctic air. However, fire-weather conditions are expected to remain highly localized and the vast majority of area fuels remain insufficient for significant fire activity after recent precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 30 20:18:02 UTC 2023.

MD 0115 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Areas affected...Parts of north central and northeastern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 302015Z - 302315Z SUMMARY...A consolidating cluster of thunderstorms may be accompanied by increasing freezing rain rates in excess of 1/4 inch per hour, near and northeast of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex into parts of southeastern Oklahoma through 5-6 PM CST. DISCUSSION...Closer to the leading edge of the shallow sub-freezing near-surface air mass, the overlying layer of air above freezing is warmer and deeper across north central Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, as convection with embedded thunderstorms to the south and southwest gradually increases. This activity may be supported by forcing associated with a mid/upper perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which is forecast to continue to spread northeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex vicinity through 23-00Z. Elevated moisture return appears to be contributing to inflow with CAPE increasing up to 250-500 J/kg, which at least some model output suggests may support a consolidating and upscale growing cluster of storms. This may be accompanied by peak rainfall rates increasing in excess of 1/4 inch per hour, enhancing ice accrual on exposed objects in the sub-freezing air. ..Kerr.. 01/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34009638 34759542 34789453 33449533 32659602 32469649 32939684 34009638 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue for at least the next few hours from central TX northeastward across eastern OK and western AR. Much of this will occur atop below-freezing surface temperatures, resulting in thunder sleet in several locations, including north-central TX, eastern OK, and far southwest MO, and mix of thunder freezing rain/sleet across central TX and west-central/southwest AR. Isolated thunderstorm are still possible from southern MS through southern GA this afternoon/evening, as well as across southern CA from now through tomorrow morning. ..Mosier.. 01/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move east-southeastward from near the southern CA coast to northwest Mexico by Tuesday morning, with the potential for some low-topped convection and isolated lightning flashes close to the southern CA coast. Farther east, midlevel ridging will persist over FL, with low-amplitude speed maxima translating east-northeastward from the southern Plains to the Atlantic coast. Isolated thunderstorms will still be possible along a stalled front from southeast LA to southern GA, but weak forcing for ascent suggests that storm coverage will be isolated at best. The most pronounced thunderstorm threat today will be with the elevated convection over central/eastern OK into north TX. Regional 12z soundings revealed 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, which will support a continued threat for elevated thunderstorms through the day. The majority of this convection will occur atop a sub-freezing boundary layer, with primarily thunder sleet in OK and a mix of thunder freezing rain/sleet farther south in TX. Read more

MD 0114 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Areas affected...parts of east central/northeastern Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas and southwest Missouri Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 301918Z - 302315Z SUMMARY...Accumulating sleet at rates up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour may become more widespread in a corridor to the south of Interstate 44, across east central Oklahoma through the Fayetteville and Branson areas of northwestern Arkansas and southwest Missouri. DISCUSSION...Continued low-level moisture return beneath modestly steep lapse rates, on the northwestern periphery of slowly building mid-level ridging (to the northwest of the subtropical ridge centered over the Caribbean), has contributed to weak destabilization across parts of the southern Great Plains. This is supporting an ongoing increase in convection with embedded thunderstorm activity near and to the east and south of the Interstate 35 and 44 corridors of eastern Oklahoma, generally along a sharp quasi-stationary lower/mid tropospheric baroclinic zone associated with a recent cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies. Along and north of this frontal zone, the surface through roughly 925 mb layer is characterized by temperatures in the mid teens to near 20 F, while a shallow layer above this air mass remains above freezing. The convection appears largely rooted above the warm nose, with associated frozen precipitation mostly reaching the surface has ice pellets/sleet. Forcing for convection appears largely due to lift associated with low/mid level warm advection and frontogenesis which are forecast to continue to develop east-northeastward across the Interstate 40 corridor of eastern Oklahoma, into northwestern Arkansas and areas of southwestern Missouri to the south of Interstate 44 through 21-23Z. Although lightning may decrease as convection gradually consolidates, sleet accumulation rates could still increase a bit further up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour. ..Kerr.. 01/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35679623 36469511 36829427 37109333 36879265 36309274 35999399 35429507 35149614 35679623 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous forecast are needed. ..Supinie.. 01/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain dominant over much of the lower 48 through the forecast period. Reinforced by a cold and stable arctic airmass, widespread winter precipitation is expected over the Plains and central US. Cold temperatures, limited fuels and poor overlap of dry/windy conditions suggest fire weather concerns are minimal over much of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is forecast cover much of North America early Tuesday morning, anchored by a closed low centered over the Lower CO River Valley. Confluent southwesterly flow aloft will precede this system across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Expectation is for this upper low to gradually shift southward/southwestward throughout the day, while becoming increasingly displaced south of the more progressive northern stream. Cold mid-level temperatures and persistent forcing for ascent may contribute to a few lightning strike across southwest AZ Tuesday morning. Stable conditions are expected farther east across much of the central and eastern CONUS as expansive surface ridging (extending from the central Plains through much of the OH Valley) dominates the sensible weather. Low-level moisture will remain in place from the central Gulf Coast into southeast GA and across FL, but warm temperatures aloft will preclude thunderstorm development. Showers are expected throughout the day across TX, as southwesterly flow aloft persists atop a cold and shallow continental air mass. Modest elevated buoyancy is possible from the TX Hill Country into east TX, and isolated lightning flashes may occur within the deepest convective cores. ..Mosier.. 01/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move east-southeastward from near the southern CA coast to northwest Mexico by Tuesday morning, with the potential for some low-topped convection and isolated lightning flashes close to the southern CA coast. Farther east, midlevel ridging will persist over FL, with low-amplitude speed maxima translating east-northeastward from the southern Plains to the Atlantic coast. Isolated thunderstorms will still be possible along a stalled front from southeast LA to southern GA, but weak forcing for ascent suggests that storm coverage will be isolated at best. The most pronounced thunderstorm threat today will be with the elevated convection over central/eastern OK into north TX. Regional 12z soundings revealed 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, which will support a continued threat for elevated thunderstorms through the day. The majority of this convection will occur atop a sub-freezing boundary layer, with primarily thunder sleet in OK and a mix of thunder freezing rain/sleet farther south in TX. ..Thompson/Bentley.. 01/30/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0943 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Expect a few areas of transient elevated conditions across southeastern Arizona into central New Mexico. However, moist to marginally dry fuels across the region will keep fire risk below Elevated criteria. ..Supinie.. 01/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns across the CONUS are low through the forecast period. A cold and stable arctic airmass behind a cold front near the Gulf Coast will support very cold temperatures and widespread winter precipitation over the central and southern US. Isolated pockets of dry and breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Southwest into NM and eastern AZ. However, poorly receptive fuels and the sporadic coverage of any fire-weather conditions will remain below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST TX EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong-severe storms are possible through this evening from southeast Texas eastward along the northern Gulf coast. ...Southeast TX to the northern Gulf coast through this evening... A marine warm front has drifted northward to near Houston, and extends eastward along the LA coast to the extreme northeast Gulf of Mexico. This boundary is unlikely to move much farther north, given continued reinforcement of the cool air north of the boundary by widespread rainfall. South of the boundary, surface dewpoints of 68-70 F characterize the warm sector, with temperatures in the low-mid 70s, which are contributing the MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is sufficient for supercells, though hodographs are largely straight and low-level shear will remain relatively weak. The peak for thunderstorm coverage will occur this afternoon as a diffuse midlevel trough ejects east-northeastward over TX, with a gradual decrease expected this evening into tonight along the marine front inland from the northern Gulf coast. The severe threat will be on the lower margins for an outlook area, given poor midlevel lapse rates and relatively weak low-level shear. ..Thompson.. 01/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023/ ...Gulf Coast including Southeast Texas to Florida Panhandle... Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough entering TX Hill Country/South TX. This lead shortwave is expected to continue east-northeastward throughout the day, moving across central and east TX and into the Lower MS Valley. A broad area of low-level warm-air advection precedes this shortwave, supporting elevated showers and thunderstorms from southeast TX across much of the Lower MS Valley and into the central Gulf Coast. Recent surface analysis places the main frontal low near TYR in northeast TX, but another more subtle secondary low appears to be centered about 20 mi north of VCT. A warm front arcs northeastward and then eastward from this second low, delineating a more maritime air mass characterized by low/mid 70s temperatures and upper 60s dewpoints. This warm and moist air mass would be more supportive of surface-based storms with any storms to its north expected to remain elevated. Inland penetration of this more maritime air mass will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and continuing precipitation, likely confining the risk for surface-based storms to the middle and upper TX Coast, and perhaps the immediate coastal portions of southwest LA, this afternoon and into this evening. Damaging wind gusts associated with bowing line segments are the primary severe risk with these surface-based storms, but a brief tornado or two is also possible. The maritime air mass is expected to continue moving inland this evening father east across portions of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle. Warm-air advection will likely remain the primary forcing mechanism, keeping the majority of storms elevated north of more buoyant air mass. That being said, mesoscale ascent attendant to the eastward-progressing secondary low could still support a few surface-based storms. The environment is expected to remain favorable for bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Read more