Severe Storms

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HUT TO 10 ENE SLN TO 25 SE BIE. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-017-027-031-041-045-059-061-111-113-115-117-127-131-139- 149-161-177-197-160540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CHASE CLAY COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HUT TO 10 ENE SLN TO 25 SE BIE. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-017-027-031-041-045-059-061-111-113-115-117-127-131-139- 149-161-177-197-160540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CHASE CLAY COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HUT TO 10 ENE SLN TO 25 SE BIE. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-017-027-031-041-045-059-061-111-113-115-117-127-131-139- 149-161-177-197-160540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CHASE CLAY COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HUT TO 10 ENE SLN TO 25 SE BIE. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-017-027-031-041-045-059-061-111-113-115-117-127-131-139- 149-161-177-197-160540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CHASE CLAY COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1754 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 585... FOR EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1754 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Areas affected...eastern Kansas/western Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 585... Valid 160411Z - 160615Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 585 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/severe storms continue moving across eastern parts of Kansas, within WW 585 (and across western Missouri within WW 584). Southeastward advance of the convection/severe risk will likely require a new/downstream WW issuance into southeast Kansas/southwestern Missouri. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows several severe/supercell storms moving south-southeast across eastern Kansas, in eastern portions of Tornado Watch 585. Other strong/locally severe storms are crossing western Missouri, and are slightly elevated atop a cooler/more stable boundary layer. The eastern Kansas storms remain in proximity to the mixed-layer CAPE axis, and are being fed by a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet. This kinematic/thermodynamic configuration should support a continuation of the intense eastern Kansas storms, which will continue to spread south-southeastward and eventually exit WW 585. With the Missouri storms also beginning to exit WW 584, a new WW will likely be required. This watch will likely replace both existing watches, and will include the ongoing storms, and extend downstream into southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri. ..Goss.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37859633 39089669 40049607 39469462 38749337 37539288 36609294 37139546 37589627 37859633 Read more

MD 1753 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1753 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0956 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Areas affected...central and southeast Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 160256Z - 160500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storm development over parts of central and eastern Wyoming may continue/increase over the next few hours. A WW could become necessary. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a couple of thunderstorms initiating over parts of central and eastern Wyoming, with a potentially severe storm now indicated near the Natrona/Converse County line. The storms are occurring near a northwest-to-southeast axis of modest instability, within a zone of increasing large-scale ascent ahead of a short-wave trough/vort max moving into northwest Wyoming and adjacent southern Montana. Over the next several hours, CAM solutions vary across this area, but the general consensus is an increase in convective coverage/intensity. Given the CAPE axis, along with moderate mid-level westerly flow atop the low-level easterlies, this increase appears plausible. While the need for a WW remains uncertain at this time, we will continue to monitor convective trends, as it relates to the potential need for a watch. ..Goss/Guyer.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 43350737 43630724 43440588 42930489 42220366 41650291 41180373 41100555 42270714 42590773 43020760 43350737 Read more

WW 0583 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FSD TO 30 NE FSD TO 40 NNW OTG. WW 583 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 160200Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751 ..NAUSLAR..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC101-160200- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MOODY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0583 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FSD TO 30 NE FSD TO 40 NNW OTG. WW 583 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 160200Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751 ..NAUSLAR..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC101-160200- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MOODY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0583 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FSD TO 30 NE FSD TO 40 NNW OTG. WW 583 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 160200Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751 ..NAUSLAR..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC101-160200- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MOODY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-017-027-029-031-041-045-053-059-061-105-111-113-115-117- 123-127-131-139-143-149-157-161-167-169-177-197-201-160240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CHASE CLAY CLOUD COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY RUSSELL SALINE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-017-027-029-031-041-045-053-059-061-105-111-113-115-117- 123-127-131-139-143-149-157-161-167-169-177-197-201-160240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CHASE CLAY CLOUD COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY RUSSELL SALINE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 585 TORNADO KS 152310Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 585 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 610 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North-central and Eastern Kansas * Effective this Thursday night from 610 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening, particularly near a stalled boundary that is oriented roughly west to east across north-central/northeast Kansas. Large hail and locally damaging winds may be the most common risks, but adequate moisture and seasonally strong low-level shear supports the possibility of tornadoes, especially across northeast/east-central Kansas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest of Concordia KS to 20 miles southeast of Topeka KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 583...WW 584... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 584 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-043-085-087-091-103-107-121-209-160240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN DONIPHAN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC003-013-021-025-037-047-049-063-087-095-107-165-177-160240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BATES BUCHANAN CALDWELL CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB HOLT JACKSON LAFAYETTE PLATTE RAY NEC147-160240- NE Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 584 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/16/19 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-043-085-087-091-103-107-121-209-160240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN DONIPHAN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC003-013-021-025-037-047-049-063-087-095-107-165-177-160240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BATES BUCHANAN CALDWELL CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB HOLT JACKSON LAFAYETTE PLATTE RAY NEC147-160240- NE Read more

WW 584 SEVERE TSTM KS MO NE 152150Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 584 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Kansas Northwest Missouri Far Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 450 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms should continue to develop this evening and move southeastward along and north of a prior outflow boundary. Large hail will be the primary risk with this mostly elevated storms to the north of the outflow boundary. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of Falls City NE to 55 miles east northeast of Kansas City MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 583... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1752 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 585... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1752 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0822 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Areas affected...north-central and northeast Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 585... Valid 160122Z - 160315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 585 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/isolated tornado risk continues across Tornado Watch 585. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a few intense storms across northeast Kansas, within WW 585. The storms appear to be initiating near remnant outflows, and then are propagating south-southeastward -- fed by a developing 30 to 35 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet. Along with large hail, a couple of brief tornadoes have been spotted recently -- including reports from Geary and Wabaunsee Counties in Kansas. Storms will likely persist for several hours, as the low-level jet continues to strengthen, and given the pool of strong instability just west of the ongoing storms coupled with a favorably veering/increasing wind profile with height. Risk for all hazards will continue, for at least the next few hours. ..Goss.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 38359881 38999892 39859856 40249789 40069678 39969572 38279468 37899480 38049716 38359881 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to spread southeast through eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening with large hail, damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes. Other strong to severe storms might develop later tonight from eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. ...Central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri... Storms that developed along a east-west oriented outflow boundary across northeastern KS are expected to persist into the overnight as they develop southeastward, eventually into western MO. The 00Z RAOB from TOP sampled the atmosphere north of the this boundary and indicates moderate instability along with 50 kt 0-6 km shear and 200+ m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity. Supercells developing along and slightly to the cool side of the outflow boundary are more likely to realize the vorticity rich 0-1 km air and develop low-level mesocyclones and a tornado or two. While storms deeper into the cool side should remain elevated. Storms are expected to develop southeast through eastern KS and western MO along instability gradient supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Discrete supercells with large hail and a couple of tornadoes as the initial mode may eventually evolve into an MCS with an increasing threat for damaging wind. Development farther southwest into central KS along a convergent boundary remains uncertain, but will maintain a conditional slight risk for this area. ...Eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska... Deeper ascent with a shortwave trough now moving through northwest WY may contribute to additional thunderstorm development across eastern WY later this evening or tonight where modest instability and 40-50 kt effective bulk shear will support a risk for organized storms capable of isolated large hail and a few locally strong to damaging gusts. ..Dial.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to spread southeast through eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening with large hail, damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes. Other strong to severe storms might develop later tonight from eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. ...Central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri... Storms that developed along a east-west oriented outflow boundary across northeastern KS are expected to persist into the overnight as they develop southeastward, eventually into western MO. The 00Z RAOB from TOP sampled the atmosphere north of the this boundary and indicates moderate instability along with 50 kt 0-6 km shear and 200+ m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity. Supercells developing along and slightly to the cool side of the outflow boundary are more likely to realize the vorticity rich 0-1 km air and develop low-level mesocyclones and a tornado or two. While storms deeper into the cool side should remain elevated. Storms are expected to develop southeast through eastern KS and western MO along instability gradient supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Discrete supercells with large hail and a couple of tornadoes as the initial mode may eventually evolve into an MCS with an increasing threat for damaging wind. Development farther southwest into central KS along a convergent boundary remains uncertain, but will maintain a conditional slight risk for this area. ...Eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska... Deeper ascent with a shortwave trough now moving through northwest WY may contribute to additional thunderstorm development across eastern WY later this evening or tonight where modest instability and 40-50 kt effective bulk shear will support a risk for organized storms capable of isolated large hail and a few locally strong to damaging gusts. ..Dial.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to spread southeast through eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening with large hail, damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes. Other strong to severe storms might develop later tonight from eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. ...Central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri... Storms that developed along a east-west oriented outflow boundary across northeastern KS are expected to persist into the overnight as they develop southeastward, eventually into western MO. The 00Z RAOB from TOP sampled the atmosphere north of the this boundary and indicates moderate instability along with 50 kt 0-6 km shear and 200+ m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity. Supercells developing along and slightly to the cool side of the outflow boundary are more likely to realize the vorticity rich 0-1 km air and develop low-level mesocyclones and a tornado or two. While storms deeper into the cool side should remain elevated. Storms are expected to develop southeast through eastern KS and western MO along instability gradient supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Discrete supercells with large hail and a couple of tornadoes as the initial mode may eventually evolve into an MCS with an increasing threat for damaging wind. Development farther southwest into central KS along a convergent boundary remains uncertain, but will maintain a conditional slight risk for this area. ...Eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska... Deeper ascent with a shortwave trough now moving through northwest WY may contribute to additional thunderstorm development across eastern WY later this evening or tonight where modest instability and 40-50 kt effective bulk shear will support a risk for organized storms capable of isolated large hail and a few locally strong to damaging gusts. ..Dial.. 08/16/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to spread southeast through eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening with large hail, damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes. Other strong to severe storms might develop later tonight from eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. ...Central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri... Storms that developed along a east-west oriented outflow boundary across northeastern KS are expected to persist into the overnight as they develop southeastward, eventually into western MO. The 00Z RAOB from TOP sampled the atmosphere north of the this boundary and indicates moderate instability along with 50 kt 0-6 km shear and 200+ m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity. Supercells developing along and slightly to the cool side of the outflow boundary are more likely to realize the vorticity rich 0-1 km air and develop low-level mesocyclones and a tornado or two. While storms deeper into the cool side should remain elevated. Storms are expected to develop southeast through eastern KS and western MO along instability gradient supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Discrete supercells with large hail and a couple of tornadoes as the initial mode may eventually evolve into an MCS with an increasing threat for damaging wind. Development farther southwest into central KS along a convergent boundary remains uncertain, but will maintain a conditional slight risk for this area. ...Eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska... Deeper ascent with a shortwave trough now moving through northwest WY may contribute to additional thunderstorm development across eastern WY later this evening or tonight where modest instability and 40-50 kt effective bulk shear will support a risk for organized storms capable of isolated large hail and a few locally strong to damaging gusts. ..Dial.. 08/16/2019 Read more