Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will pivot northeast from the upper Great Lakes to the northeastern U.S. on Wednesday. Further west, an upper ridge will remain in place from the southwestern states to the Pacific Northwest. This will maintain a broad swath of northwesterly deep layer flow from the Rockies into the Plains and MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be positioned from the lower Great Lakes southward toward the TN Valley and then westward into northern/central TX Wednesday morning. The northern/southern portion of the front will progress east and south through the period, before moving offshore the Atlantic/central Gulf coasts by Thursday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front from NY southward through the Carolinas. However, limited instability and generally weak shear will preclude severe concerns. Most thunderstorm activity associated with the front across the southern U.S. will remain across FL where similarly weak shear/ascent will preclude severe potential. Further west, the TX portion of the front will stall and become more diffuse with time. Some elevated, but strong, storms could be ongoing across central TX at the beginning of the period. Most guidance has whatever MCS may be ongoing during the morning decaying by afternoon with some redevelopment possible in the TX Big Bend vicinity eastward toward the upper and middle TX Coasts. Moderate instability will be sufficient to support a few strong storms, however, shear will remain weak and overall severe potential appears limited in the absence of stronger forcing and better wind profiles. Additional thunderstorms storms are possible beneath the upper ridge as low level moisture returns westward ahead of the front into parts of southern NM and southeast AZ. Steep lapse rates and weak to moderate instability could support a couple of strong storms capable of gusty winds. However, weak deep layer flow limit longevity/organization of cells and preclude severe concerns. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Leitman.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will pivot northeast from the upper Great Lakes to the northeastern U.S. on Wednesday. Further west, an upper ridge will remain in place from the southwestern states to the Pacific Northwest. This will maintain a broad swath of northwesterly deep layer flow from the Rockies into the Plains and MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be positioned from the lower Great Lakes southward toward the TN Valley and then westward into northern/central TX Wednesday morning. The northern/southern portion of the front will progress east and south through the period, before moving offshore the Atlantic/central Gulf coasts by Thursday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front from NY southward through the Carolinas. However, limited instability and generally weak shear will preclude severe concerns. Most thunderstorm activity associated with the front across the southern U.S. will remain across FL where similarly weak shear/ascent will preclude severe potential. Further west, the TX portion of the front will stall and become more diffuse with time. Some elevated, but strong, storms could be ongoing across central TX at the beginning of the period. Most guidance has whatever MCS may be ongoing during the morning decaying by afternoon with some redevelopment possible in the TX Big Bend vicinity eastward toward the upper and middle TX Coasts. Moderate instability will be sufficient to support a few strong storms, however, shear will remain weak and overall severe potential appears limited in the absence of stronger forcing and better wind profiles. Additional thunderstorms storms are possible beneath the upper ridge as low level moisture returns westward ahead of the front into parts of southern NM and southeast AZ. Steep lapse rates and weak to moderate instability could support a couple of strong storms capable of gusty winds. However, weak deep layer flow limit longevity/organization of cells and preclude severe concerns. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Leitman.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST/NORTH TX...OH/NORTHERN KY...EASTERN MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west and north Texas, Ohio and northern Kentucky, and parts of eastern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon into this evening. Locally damaging wind will be the primary threat, with some hail also possible across Texas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough is forecast to shift eastward from the northern Plains/upper Midwest into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. The primary surface low will move eastward across Ontario through the day, as an attendant cold front moves through the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes regions southwestward into the lower MS Valley and southern Plains. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of convection early Tuesday morning, which will affect boundary placement and potential redevelopment this afternoon. The outflow reinforced cold front will likely move into portions of north TX during the morning. Widely scattered redevelopment is possible near or north of the boundary this afternoon and/or this evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy, with effective shear expected to be marginally supportive of organized convection. A conditional risk for localized severe winds and perhaps some hail will be present across this region, though confidence regarding the details remains low, and a more aggressive southward push of the outflow/front during the morning may tend to limit the potential for substantial redevelopment later in the period. ...Upper Great Lakes Region... Despite generally limited moisture and heating, cold midlevel temperatures associated with the upper trough will support the development of weak buoyancy from eastern MN eastward into the U.P. of MI, with SBCAPE of 250-750 J/kg possible. Steepening low-level lapse rates and moderate westerly flow in the lowest 3 km will support a threat for locally damaging wind with low-topped convection this afternoon into the early evening. Some hail will also be possible, though with updraft depth/intensity expected to remain rather limited, the severe hail risk appears too low at this time for any probabilities. ...Ohio into northern KY... A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the cold front this afternoon across portions of OH/KY. While the strongest midlevel flow will generally lag the cold front, it will still be sufficient to support effective shear of 20-30 kt, resulting in some potential for marginally organized convection. Localized damaging wind will be the primary threat, from isolated wet microbursts and/or outflow from weakly organized clusters. ..Dean/Wendt.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST/NORTH TX...OH/NORTHERN KY...EASTERN MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west and north Texas, Ohio and northern Kentucky, and parts of eastern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon into this evening. Locally damaging wind will be the primary threat, with some hail also possible across Texas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough is forecast to shift eastward from the northern Plains/upper Midwest into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. The primary surface low will move eastward across Ontario through the day, as an attendant cold front moves through the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes regions southwestward into the lower MS Valley and southern Plains. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of convection early Tuesday morning, which will affect boundary placement and potential redevelopment this afternoon. The outflow reinforced cold front will likely move into portions of north TX during the morning. Widely scattered redevelopment is possible near or north of the boundary this afternoon and/or this evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy, with effective shear expected to be marginally supportive of organized convection. A conditional risk for localized severe winds and perhaps some hail will be present across this region, though confidence regarding the details remains low, and a more aggressive southward push of the outflow/front during the morning may tend to limit the potential for substantial redevelopment later in the period. ...Upper Great Lakes Region... Despite generally limited moisture and heating, cold midlevel temperatures associated with the upper trough will support the development of weak buoyancy from eastern MN eastward into the U.P. of MI, with SBCAPE of 250-750 J/kg possible. Steepening low-level lapse rates and moderate westerly flow in the lowest 3 km will support a threat for locally damaging wind with low-topped convection this afternoon into the early evening. Some hail will also be possible, though with updraft depth/intensity expected to remain rather limited, the severe hail risk appears too low at this time for any probabilities. ...Ohio into northern KY... A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the cold front this afternoon across portions of OH/KY. While the strongest midlevel flow will generally lag the cold front, it will still be sufficient to support effective shear of 20-30 kt, resulting in some potential for marginally organized convection. Localized damaging wind will be the primary threat, from isolated wet microbursts and/or outflow from weakly organized clusters. ..Dean/Wendt.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST/NORTH TX...OH/NORTHERN KY...EASTERN MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west and north Texas, Ohio and northern Kentucky, and parts of eastern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon into this evening. Locally damaging wind will be the primary threat, with some hail also possible across Texas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough is forecast to shift eastward from the northern Plains/upper Midwest into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. The primary surface low will move eastward across Ontario through the day, as an attendant cold front moves through the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes regions southwestward into the lower MS Valley and southern Plains. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of convection early Tuesday morning, which will affect boundary placement and potential redevelopment this afternoon. The outflow reinforced cold front will likely move into portions of north TX during the morning. Widely scattered redevelopment is possible near or north of the boundary this afternoon and/or this evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy, with effective shear expected to be marginally supportive of organized convection. A conditional risk for localized severe winds and perhaps some hail will be present across this region, though confidence regarding the details remains low, and a more aggressive southward push of the outflow/front during the morning may tend to limit the potential for substantial redevelopment later in the period. ...Upper Great Lakes Region... Despite generally limited moisture and heating, cold midlevel temperatures associated with the upper trough will support the development of weak buoyancy from eastern MN eastward into the U.P. of MI, with SBCAPE of 250-750 J/kg possible. Steepening low-level lapse rates and moderate westerly flow in the lowest 3 km will support a threat for locally damaging wind with low-topped convection this afternoon into the early evening. Some hail will also be possible, though with updraft depth/intensity expected to remain rather limited, the severe hail risk appears too low at this time for any probabilities. ...Ohio into northern KY... A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the cold front this afternoon across portions of OH/KY. While the strongest midlevel flow will generally lag the cold front, it will still be sufficient to support effective shear of 20-30 kt, resulting in some potential for marginally organized convection. Localized damaging wind will be the primary threat, from isolated wet microbursts and/or outflow from weakly organized clusters. ..Dean/Wendt.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST/NORTH TX...OH/NORTHERN KY...EASTERN MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west and north Texas, Ohio and northern Kentucky, and parts of eastern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon into this evening. Locally damaging wind will be the primary threat, with some hail also possible across Texas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong upper trough is forecast to shift eastward from the northern Plains/upper Midwest into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. The primary surface low will move eastward across Ontario through the day, as an attendant cold front moves through the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes regions southwestward into the lower MS Valley and southern Plains. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of convection early Tuesday morning, which will affect boundary placement and potential redevelopment this afternoon. The outflow reinforced cold front will likely move into portions of north TX during the morning. Widely scattered redevelopment is possible near or north of the boundary this afternoon and/or this evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy, with effective shear expected to be marginally supportive of organized convection. A conditional risk for localized severe winds and perhaps some hail will be present across this region, though confidence regarding the details remains low, and a more aggressive southward push of the outflow/front during the morning may tend to limit the potential for substantial redevelopment later in the period. ...Upper Great Lakes Region... Despite generally limited moisture and heating, cold midlevel temperatures associated with the upper trough will support the development of weak buoyancy from eastern MN eastward into the U.P. of MI, with SBCAPE of 250-750 J/kg possible. Steepening low-level lapse rates and moderate westerly flow in the lowest 3 km will support a threat for locally damaging wind with low-topped convection this afternoon into the early evening. Some hail will also be possible, though with updraft depth/intensity expected to remain rather limited, the severe hail risk appears too low at this time for any probabilities. ...Ohio into northern KY... A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the cold front this afternoon across portions of OH/KY. While the strongest midlevel flow will generally lag the cold front, it will still be sufficient to support effective shear of 20-30 kt, resulting in some potential for marginally organized convection. Localized damaging wind will be the primary threat, from isolated wet microbursts and/or outflow from weakly organized clusters. ..Dean/Wendt.. 08/27/2019 Read more

MD 1876 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MO/MO BOOTHILL...NORTHEAST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1876 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Areas affected...Far Southeast MO/MO Boothill...Northeast AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 270544Z - 270715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Convective line moving through southeast MO may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts as it continues into far southeast MO/northeast AR. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shown an increase in forward speed with the ongoing convective line across southeast MO. Recent storm motion is southeastward at 30-35 kt. This storm motion takes the line to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625 within the next 30 minutes (i.e. by 06Z). Downstream air mass across southeast MO/MO Boothill here is characterized by temperatures in the low 70s, dewpoints in the upper 60s, and low buoyancy. However, downstream air mass across northeast AR is more favorable, with temperatures in the upper 70s, dewpoints in the mid 70s, and moderate instability. Convective inhibition exists but the organized character to the ongoing line and strong cold pool should be able to overcome much of this inhibition. As a result, a damaging wind threat may persist across northeast AR/southeast MO and a watch will be considered soon to cover this threat. ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36449243 37059150 37009045 36598987 35998995 35569032 35049118 35199246 36449243 Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CSM TO 45 ENE CNU AND 25 SSW MKO TO 25 NW CHK TO 35 NW CHK TO 25 S END TO 25 WSW JLN. ..GOSS..08/27/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-270540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON OKC035-037-041-073-081-083-097-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119- 131-143-145-147-270540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MAYES NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CSM TO 45 ENE CNU AND 25 SSW MKO TO 25 NW CHK TO 35 NW CHK TO 25 S END TO 25 WSW JLN. ..GOSS..08/27/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-270540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON OKC035-037-041-073-081-083-097-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119- 131-143-145-147-270540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MAYES NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CSM TO 45 ENE CNU AND 25 SSW MKO TO 25 NW CHK TO 35 NW CHK TO 25 S END TO 25 WSW JLN. ..GOSS..08/27/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-270540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON OKC035-037-041-073-081-083-097-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119- 131-143-145-147-270540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MAYES NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CSM TO 45 ENE CNU AND 25 SSW MKO TO 25 NW CHK TO 35 NW CHK TO 25 S END TO 25 WSW JLN. ..GOSS..08/27/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-270540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON OKC035-037-041-073-081-083-097-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119- 131-143-145-147-270540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MAYES NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 625 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/27/19 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-089-101-115-127-129-131-141- 143-149-270540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION NEWTON POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN VAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL MOC043-065-067-091-149-153-203-209-213-215-225-229-270540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DENT DOUGLAS HOWELL OREGON OZARK SHANNON STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT OKC001-005-013-015-017-019-021-027-029-049-051-061-063-067-069- Read more

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0625 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1875 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1875 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...central and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas into southern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624... Valid 270321Z - 270515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/severe storms continue along the advancing cold front, and will gradually spread into areas south and east of WW 624. This will likely require new WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken band of strong/severe storms extending across central and northeast Oklahoma, roughly coincident with an advancing cold front. Severe wind gusts continue to be reported with stronger storms, and large hail is also likely occurring locally, per latest radar data. As the front continues a southeastward advance, existing pre-frontal instability should permit a continuation of locally vigorous convection. As such, the likelihood that some risk for damaging winds will spread to areas outside the exist watch, will likely require new WW issuance. ..Goss.. 08/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 34019870 35199896 36969599 37439431 37579195 34439308 34019870 Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CSM TO 30 E END TO 20 WNW BVO TO 30 SSE CNU TO 30 N JLN TO 60 SSW SZL. ..WENDT..08/27/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-270340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-099-270340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE MOC011-097-119-145-270340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON JASPER MCDONALD NEWTON Read more

WW 624 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 262210Z - 270500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 624 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri Central and Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Monday afternoon from 510 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify late this afternoon and early evening, initially across southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri, with storms expanding/developing south-southeastward through the evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary risks, although a tornado cannot be ruled out particularly across southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri and northeast Oklahoma. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast of Chanute KS to 20 miles south southeast of Oklahoma City OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 623... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1874 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1874 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0934 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...central and northeastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624... Valid 270234Z - 270430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated intense storms are ongoing within portions of WW 624. Strong/damaging wind gusts and some hail may occur, along with potential for a tornadic spin-up. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated intense storms occurring near a southward-moving cold front, including storms affecting both the Tulsa and Oklahoma City vicinities. The storms are occurring within a thermodynamic environment featuring mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3500 J/kg, and appear particularly capable of producing very strong wind gusts. Several measured gusts in the 70 to 80 MPH range have occurred over the past hour or so, and expect this caliber of wind gusts to remain possible over the next 1-2 hours, including the OKC metro area. ..Goss.. 08/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 34659850 35619870 37829426 36989362 36239381 34819643 34659850 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OK AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some hail are possible into the late evening from central Oklahoma northeastward into portions of southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. ...OK...Southeast KS...Northwest AR...central/southern MO... Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the evening from OK northeastward into southeast KS/southern MO. There is a narrow window of potential for surface-based convection through around 03Z across northern OK/southeast KS, with an increasing tendency for storms to become elevated by late tonight, as a cold front continues southward through the region. With strong buoyancy and sufficient effective shear, ongoing surface-based development will include the potential for at least transient supercell structures, with an attendant risk of severe wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. See MCD 1873 for more information. Otherwise, one or more thunderstorm clusters will likely evolve with time. Any upscale growth would be accompanied by a continued risk of severe wind gusts, with the greatest relative risk expected over northeast OK/far southeast KS/far southwest MO, where the best overlap of instability/shear is expected through the evening. Some threat may spread eastward into south-central/southeast MO, though only partial airmass recovery is expected in the wake of earlier convection before the next round of storms moves through this area. ..Dean.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OK AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some hail are possible into the late evening from central Oklahoma northeastward into portions of southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. ...OK...Southeast KS...Northwest AR...central/southern MO... Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the evening from OK northeastward into southeast KS/southern MO. There is a narrow window of potential for surface-based convection through around 03Z across northern OK/southeast KS, with an increasing tendency for storms to become elevated by late tonight, as a cold front continues southward through the region. With strong buoyancy and sufficient effective shear, ongoing surface-based development will include the potential for at least transient supercell structures, with an attendant risk of severe wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. See MCD 1873 for more information. Otherwise, one or more thunderstorm clusters will likely evolve with time. Any upscale growth would be accompanied by a continued risk of severe wind gusts, with the greatest relative risk expected over northeast OK/far southeast KS/far southwest MO, where the best overlap of instability/shear is expected through the evening. Some threat may spread eastward into south-central/southeast MO, though only partial airmass recovery is expected in the wake of earlier convection before the next round of storms moves through this area. ..Dean.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OK AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some hail are possible into the late evening from central Oklahoma northeastward into portions of southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. ...OK...Southeast KS...Northwest AR...central/southern MO... Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the evening from OK northeastward into southeast KS/southern MO. There is a narrow window of potential for surface-based convection through around 03Z across northern OK/southeast KS, with an increasing tendency for storms to become elevated by late tonight, as a cold front continues southward through the region. With strong buoyancy and sufficient effective shear, ongoing surface-based development will include the potential for at least transient supercell structures, with an attendant risk of severe wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. See MCD 1873 for more information. Otherwise, one or more thunderstorm clusters will likely evolve with time. Any upscale growth would be accompanied by a continued risk of severe wind gusts, with the greatest relative risk expected over northeast OK/far southeast KS/far southwest MO, where the best overlap of instability/shear is expected through the evening. Some threat may spread eastward into south-central/southeast MO, though only partial airmass recovery is expected in the wake of earlier convection before the next round of storms moves through this area. ..Dean.. 08/27/2019 Read more