Severe Storms

WW 627 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 292040Z - 300400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 627 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme northeast Kansas Parts of northwest into central Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Ongoing isolated storms along an outflow boundary will likely persist into central Missouri, while additional storms form across north central Missouri and move southeastward along the same boundary. The storm environment is sufficient for supercells with large hail and damaging winds this afternoon. Later this evening, more widespread storm development is expected along a cold front into northwest Missouri, with upscale growth into a cluster or two with damaging winds possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Saint Joseph MO to 25 miles northeast of Columbia MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 626... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0626 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE GLD TO 35 NW HLC TO 25 ESE MCK TO 15 NNE EAR. ..SQUITIERI..08/30/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC063-065-071-089-109-123-137-141-147-163-179-181-183-199-203- 300240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY JEWELL LOGAN MITCHELL NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN SMITH WALLACE WICHITA NEC019-061-065-083-099-129-137-169-181-300240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO FRANKLIN FURNAS HARLAN KEARNEY NUCKOLLS PHELPS THAYER WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with hail and wind damage will be possible this evening from parts of northwest Kansas into west-central Missouri. A few marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of lower Michigan. ....Central and Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwest mid-level flow over the northern and central U.S. with a minor shortwave trough over the central High Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of this feature and are moving southeastward across parts of western Kansas. This activity is located along the western edge of a maximum of strong instability with MLCAPE values in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range estimated by the RAP. In addition, steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear should be sufficient for continued supercell development but a transition to a more linear convective system should occur with time this evening. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. Further to the east, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing along the eastern edge of the strongest instability in northern and central Missouri. According to the RAP, MLCAPE values in northern and central Missouri are estimated in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range and 0-6 km shear values are near 35 kt. This environment should support an isolated severe threat for several more hours. A severe threat with an enhanced wind damage potential could also develop from north-central Kansas into far western Missouri later this evening as MCS development takes place. This MCS is forecast to move southward across parts of central and eastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma later tonight suggesting a marginal wind damage threat will be possible through late in the period. ...Lower Michigan... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving through the western Great Lakes. A line of thunderstorms has formed in a zone of large-scale ascent along a pre-frontal trough across south-central Lower Michigan. Surface dewpoints along the pre-frontal trough are near 60 F which is resulting in weak instability. This combined with 50 kt of deep-layer shear, evident on the Detroit WSR-88D VWP, should be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail for another hour or two this evening. ..Broyles.. 08/30/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with hail and wind damage will be possible this evening from parts of northwest Kansas into west-central Missouri. A few marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of lower Michigan. ....Central and Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwest mid-level flow over the northern and central U.S. with a minor shortwave trough over the central High Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of this feature and are moving southeastward across parts of western Kansas. This activity is located along the western edge of a maximum of strong instability with MLCAPE values in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range estimated by the RAP. In addition, steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear should be sufficient for continued supercell development but a transition to a more linear convective system should occur with time this evening. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. Further to the east, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing along the eastern edge of the strongest instability in northern and central Missouri. According to the RAP, MLCAPE values in northern and central Missouri are estimated in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range and 0-6 km shear values are near 35 kt. This environment should support an isolated severe threat for several more hours. A severe threat with an enhanced wind damage potential could also develop from north-central Kansas into far western Missouri later this evening as MCS development takes place. This MCS is forecast to move southward across parts of central and eastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma later tonight suggesting a marginal wind damage threat will be possible through late in the period. ...Lower Michigan... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving through the western Great Lakes. A line of thunderstorms has formed in a zone of large-scale ascent along a pre-frontal trough across south-central Lower Michigan. Surface dewpoints along the pre-frontal trough are near 60 F which is resulting in weak instability. This combined with 50 kt of deep-layer shear, evident on the Detroit WSR-88D VWP, should be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail for another hour or two this evening. ..Broyles.. 08/30/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with hail and wind damage will be possible this evening from parts of northwest Kansas into west-central Missouri. A few marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of lower Michigan. ....Central and Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwest mid-level flow over the northern and central U.S. with a minor shortwave trough over the central High Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of this feature and are moving southeastward across parts of western Kansas. This activity is located along the western edge of a maximum of strong instability with MLCAPE values in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range estimated by the RAP. In addition, steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear should be sufficient for continued supercell development but a transition to a more linear convective system should occur with time this evening. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. Further to the east, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing along the eastern edge of the strongest instability in northern and central Missouri. According to the RAP, MLCAPE values in northern and central Missouri are estimated in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range and 0-6 km shear values are near 35 kt. This environment should support an isolated severe threat for several more hours. A severe threat with an enhanced wind damage potential could also develop from north-central Kansas into far western Missouri later this evening as MCS development takes place. This MCS is forecast to move southward across parts of central and eastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma later tonight suggesting a marginal wind damage threat will be possible through late in the period. ...Lower Michigan... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving through the western Great Lakes. A line of thunderstorms has formed in a zone of large-scale ascent along a pre-frontal trough across south-central Lower Michigan. Surface dewpoints along the pre-frontal trough are near 60 F which is resulting in weak instability. This combined with 50 kt of deep-layer shear, evident on the Detroit WSR-88D VWP, should be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail for another hour or two this evening. ..Broyles.. 08/30/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with hail and wind damage will be possible this evening from parts of northwest Kansas into west-central Missouri. A few marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of lower Michigan. ....Central and Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwest mid-level flow over the northern and central U.S. with a minor shortwave trough over the central High Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of this feature and are moving southeastward across parts of western Kansas. This activity is located along the western edge of a maximum of strong instability with MLCAPE values in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range estimated by the RAP. In addition, steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear should be sufficient for continued supercell development but a transition to a more linear convective system should occur with time this evening. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. Further to the east, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing along the eastern edge of the strongest instability in northern and central Missouri. According to the RAP, MLCAPE values in northern and central Missouri are estimated in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range and 0-6 km shear values are near 35 kt. This environment should support an isolated severe threat for several more hours. A severe threat with an enhanced wind damage potential could also develop from north-central Kansas into far western Missouri later this evening as MCS development takes place. This MCS is forecast to move southward across parts of central and eastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma later tonight suggesting a marginal wind damage threat will be possible through late in the period. ...Lower Michigan... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving through the western Great Lakes. A line of thunderstorms has formed in a zone of large-scale ascent along a pre-frontal trough across south-central Lower Michigan. Surface dewpoints along the pre-frontal trough are near 60 F which is resulting in weak instability. This combined with 50 kt of deep-layer shear, evident on the Detroit WSR-88D VWP, should be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail for another hour or two this evening. ..Broyles.. 08/30/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with hail and wind damage will be possible this evening from parts of northwest Kansas into west-central Missouri. A few marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of lower Michigan. ....Central and Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwest mid-level flow over the northern and central U.S. with a minor shortwave trough over the central High Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of this feature and are moving southeastward across parts of western Kansas. This activity is located along the western edge of a maximum of strong instability with MLCAPE values in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range estimated by the RAP. In addition, steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear should be sufficient for continued supercell development but a transition to a more linear convective system should occur with time this evening. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. Further to the east, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing along the eastern edge of the strongest instability in northern and central Missouri. According to the RAP, MLCAPE values in northern and central Missouri are estimated in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range and 0-6 km shear values are near 35 kt. This environment should support an isolated severe threat for several more hours. A severe threat with an enhanced wind damage potential could also develop from north-central Kansas into far western Missouri later this evening as MCS development takes place. This MCS is forecast to move southward across parts of central and eastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma later tonight suggesting a marginal wind damage threat will be possible through late in the period. ...Lower Michigan... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving through the western Great Lakes. A line of thunderstorms has formed in a zone of large-scale ascent along a pre-frontal trough across south-central Lower Michigan. Surface dewpoints along the pre-frontal trough are near 60 F which is resulting in weak instability. This combined with 50 kt of deep-layer shear, evident on the Detroit WSR-88D VWP, should be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail for another hour or two this evening. ..Broyles.. 08/30/2019 Read more

WW 0628 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0628 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0628 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0628 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1892 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1892 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Areas affected...south central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 300030Z - 300130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms may continue through south central Missouri during the next couple hours, posing a risk for isolated strong wind gusts before weakening further toward mid evening. Due to anticipated limited spacial/temporal extent of the threat, a WW will probably not be needed south of WW 627. DISCUSSION...Storms continue developing along an outflow boundary moving south through central MO at around 25 kt. This activity will soon cross into the Springfield county warning area where based on the 00Z RAOB, the atmosphere remains moderately unstable with 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. These storms may continue to pose a threat for isolated strong wind gusts through 02Z. However, with the low-level jet evolving well west of this region, the primary forcing mechanism will be convergence along the southward-advancing gust front. This relatively shallow forcing may not be sufficient to sustain deep convection into the late evening given increasing convective inhibition associated with a stabilizing surface layer. ..Dial/Goss.. 08/30/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF... LAT...LON 38559297 38229238 37949298 38199340 38559297 Read more

WW 0626 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N GLD TO 10 W MCK TO 35 SE LBF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1891 ..SQUITIERI..08/30/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-065-071-109-137-141-147-153-163-179-181-183-193-199- 203-300140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN SMITH THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC019-047-061-065-073-083-099-137-145-300140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO DAWSON FRANKLIN FURNAS GOSPER HARLAN KEARNEY PHELPS RED WILLOW Read more

MD 1891 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO MOST OF KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1891 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Areas affected...Far southern Nebraska into most of Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 300015Z - 300215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Semi-discrete storms will continue to grow upscale into an MCS through the evening hours across a large portion of Kansas with mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat. The severe threat will likely continue overnight, both with ongoing storms, and with new convection that is expected to initiate along a near stationary front in southern Nebraska. A downstream issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued to account for these scenarios. DISCUSSION...A mature supercell thunderstorm has recently begun to grow upscale into a small bowing complex across the northwest KS/southwest NE border, with weaker, shorter-lived cells progressing south-southeastward across western KS. The developing MCS is moving into a strongly unstable environment (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE), with 35+ knots of effective bulk shear in place, supportive of continued severe potential, including damaging wind gusts and large hail. The boundary layer will gradually decouple with the loss of daytime heating. Nonetheless, a nocturnal LLJ is expected to develop and intensify across the central Plains over the next few hours. Ample low-level convergence along the terminus of the LLJ (particularly in proximity to a near-stationary west-east orient baroclinic boundary located just north of the KS/NE border) is expected to foster additional convective development ahead of the ongoing, mature convection later this evening. Here, new storms will mature in a modestly sheared environment, with ample elevated buoyancy available to support a continued damaging wind and large hail threat. Given the likelihood of convective development/expansion of potential severe coverage later this evening, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance downstream of WW 0626 will likely be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 08/30/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC... GLD... LAT...LON 39059498 37619503 37279556 37309695 37419807 37619893 37940030 38010154 38180179 38540188 39050193 39920161 40220143 40430078 40569923 40579756 40439625 40239558 39669529 39059498 Read more

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE CDJ TO 30 SE CDJ TO 40 NW COU TO 25 NE COU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1890 ..DIAL..08/30/19 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC043-300140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DONIPHAN MOC003-005-019-021-025-027-033-041-049-051-053-061-063-075-079- 081-087-089-115-117-129-135-147-151-177-195-227-300140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW ATCHISON BOONE BUCHANAN CALDWELL CALLAWAY CARROLL CHARITON CLINTON COLE COOPER DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT HOWARD LINN LIVINGSTON MERCER MONITEAU NODAWAY OSAGE RAY SALINE WORTH Read more

MD 1889 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1889 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Areas affected...Parts of southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292249Z - 300045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of damaging wind gusts or instances of large hail may occur with the stronger storms over the next few hours. The brevity and localized nature of the severe threat precludes a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...A chaotic cluster of multicellular convection has become established across the southwest OK/northwest TX border area over the past couple of hours, with the aid of low-level lift supplied by both a confluence zone established across the area, and ample surface heating. These storms are continuing in an environment characterized by very strong buoyancy (up to 4000 J/kg MLCAPE), but relatively poor deep-layer shear (effective bulk shear values of 25-35 knots). Still, effective SRH values exceeding 100 m2/s2 combined with the aformentioned instability suggests that at least modest organization may occur with the stronger storms, perhaps allowing for the production of damaging wind gusts, given a relatively dry sfc-700 mb sub-cloud layer in place. In addition, a few large hail stones may also occur given the modest mid-level lapse rates in place. Given the likely diurnal dependencies of the ongoing convection and the limited areal coverage, the severe threat is expected to remain sparse and short-lived in nature. As such, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 08/29/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 35189784 34479746 34009776 33789834 33499905 33319997 33880049 34500010 35059944 35359806 35189784 Read more

MD 1890 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 627... FOR NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1890 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Areas affected...northern through central Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627... Valid 292311Z - 300045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627 continues. SUMMARY...Storms are expected to continue developing from northwestern into east central Missouri, with gradual southward expansion with time. DISCUSSION...Storms continue developing from the intersection of a convective outflow boundary/cold front, southeastward along the outflow boundary into east central MO. The atmosphere remains strongly unstable with 4000 J/kg MLCAPE. This region remains south of stronger westerlies with weak winds through the lowest few km. Effective bulk shear from 25-35 kt will mostly support multicells, but some supercell structures will remain possible. Trend has been for storms to merge into line segments with eastern portion beginning to accelerate southward into central MO. Storms are expected to gradually develop southward along consolidated outflows with a continuing threat for isolated damaging wind and large hail next few hours. ..Dial.. 08/29/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 40399427 40129344 39569234 38939160 38249181 39159386 39769519 40269538 40399427 Read more

WW 0626 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S IML TO 25 NNW MCK TO 25 SE LBF. ..SQUITIERI..08/29/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-065-071-109-137-141-147-153-163-179-181-183-193-199- 203-300040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN SMITH THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC019-047-061-063-065-073-083-085-087-099-137-145-300040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO DAWSON FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK KEARNEY PHELPS RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DIAL..08/29/19 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC043-292340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DONIPHAN MOC003-005-007-019-021-025-027-033-041-049-051-053-061-063-075- 079-081-087-089-115-117-129-135-147-151-175-177-195-211-227- 292340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW ATCHISON AUDRAIN BOONE BUCHANAN CALDWELL CALLAWAY CARROLL CHARITON CLINTON COLE COOPER DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT HOWARD LINN LIVINGSTON MERCER MONITEAU NODAWAY OSAGE RANDOLPH RAY SALINE SULLIVAN WORTH Read more

MD 1889 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1889 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Areas affected...Parts of southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292249Z - 300045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of damaging wind gusts or instances of large hail may occur with the stronger storms over the next few hours. The brevity and localized nature of the severe threat precludes a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...A chaotic cluster of multicellular convection has become established across the southwest OK/northwest TX border area over the past couple of hours, with the aid of low-level lift supplied by both a confluence zone established across the area, and ample surface heating. These storms are continuing in an environment characterized by very strong buoyancy (up to 4000 J/kg MLCAPE), but relatively poor deep-layer shear (effective bulk shear values of 25-35 knots). Still, effective SRH values exceeding 100 m2/s2 combined with the aformentioned instability suggests that at least modest organization may occur with the stronger storms, perhaps allowing for the production of damaging wind gusts, given a relatively dry sfc-700 mb sub-cloud layer in place. In addition, a few large hail stones may also occur given the modest mid-level lapse rates in place. Given the likely diurnal dependencies of the ongoing convection and the limited areal coverage, the severe threat is expected to remain sparse and short-lived in nature. As such, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 08/29/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 35189784 34479746 34009776 33789834 33499905 33319997 33880049 34500010 35059944 35359806 35189784 Read more

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DIAL..08/29/19 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC043-292340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DONIPHAN MOC003-005-007-019-021-025-027-033-041-049-051-053-061-063-075- 079-081-087-089-115-117-129-135-147-151-175-177-195-211-227- 292340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW ATCHISON AUDRAIN BOONE BUCHANAN CALDWELL CALLAWAY CARROLL CHARITON CLINTON COLE COOPER DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT HOWARD LINN LIVINGSTON MERCER MONITEAU NODAWAY OSAGE RANDOLPH RAY SALINE SULLIVAN WORTH Read more

WW 627 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 292040Z - 300400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 627 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme northeast Kansas Parts of northwest into central Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Ongoing isolated storms along an outflow boundary will likely persist into central Missouri, while additional storms form across north central Missouri and move southeastward along the same boundary. The storm environment is sufficient for supercells with large hail and damaging winds this afternoon. Later this evening, more widespread storm development is expected along a cold front into northwest Missouri, with upscale growth into a cluster or two with damaging winds possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Saint Joseph MO to 25 miles northeast of Columbia MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 626... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Thompson Read more