Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper-level trough located over much the Intermountain West will shift eastward into the central/northern Plains today while ridging develops in its wake across the northern Great Basin. Within the base of the trough, a mid-level short-wave trough, accompanied by enhanced mid-level flow, will quickly move across portions of the Southwest into the central/southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Southwest and Central/Southern High Plains... As the aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow overspreads the area in combination with diurnal heating, vertical mixing will allow winds near the surface to reach sustained speeds of 15-20 mph during the afternoon. A dry, post frontal airmass resides over much of the region, and thus RH values will fall into the teens amidst fuels that remain receptive to large-fire spread. Two areas have been highlighted for delineating elevated fire-weather potential, the first being a continuation of the previous forecast over portions of southern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico, with a minor expansion made to account for greater areal coverage of wind/RH threshold exceedance. A second area was added farther west across portions of northwest New Mexico into east-central Arizona, where better agreement exists in the wind/RH combo among the latest high-resolution deterministic- and ensemble-based guidance. ..Karstens.. 09/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Plains this afternoon and evening, most concentrated from Kansas into Iowa. Severe storms are also expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central Plains and Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today from the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to the development of a corridor of moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms are first expected to develop along the eastern edge of the instability corridor from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri around midday. Further to the west, strong surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence along the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon from southwest Kansas northeastward into southeast Nebraska. MCS formation will be possible across the area during the early to mid evening. Concerning the severe weather potential, RAP forecast soundings along the axis of strongest instability from Wichita, Kansas northeastward to south of Omaha, Nebraska at 00Z/Sunday show MLCAPE values peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Wind profiles are forecast to support supercells with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range with substantial directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong speed shear in the mid-levels should result in a threat for large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells along the instability axis. An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat should accompany supercells. As cell coverage markedly increases along and ahead of the front during the early to mid evening, the wind-damage threat should become more dominant. If an MCS can organize, then the wind damage and hail would be possible into the late evening from south-central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward across the northern Plains today as a cold front advances eastward across the eastern Dakotas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints should reach the 65 to 70 F range, contributing to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop along and ahead of the front during the afternoon across central and northern Minnesota. Another area of convective development could take place in the post-frontal airmass across northeastern North Dakota. RAP forecast soundings ahead of the front across central and northern Minnesota this afternoon show MLCAPE values in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range and have strong deep-layer shear of 50 to 55 kt. This combined with speed shear in the mid-levels and steep lapse rates should support an isolated large hail threat, especially if supercells can form. Supercells should also be accompanied with an isolated tornado and wind-damage threat. Storms should move quickly east-northeastward across central and northern Minnesota during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Southern Plains... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the southern Plains as an upper-level trough moves across the Desert Southwest. A lead shortwave trough is forecast to be present in the southern High Plains this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, scattered thunderstorm development should take place from west Texas northward into the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The airmass is forecast to remain weakly unstable. In spite of this, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat by late afternoon. Hail will also be possible with the stronger updrafts. ..Broyles/Karstens.. 09/21/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Plains this afternoon and evening, most concentrated from Kansas into Iowa. Severe storms are also expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central Plains and Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today from the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to the development of a corridor of moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms are first expected to develop along the eastern edge of the instability corridor from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri around midday. Further to the west, strong surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence along the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon from southwest Kansas northeastward into southeast Nebraska. MCS formation will be possible across the area during the early to mid evening. Concerning the severe weather potential, RAP forecast soundings along the axis of strongest instability from Wichita, Kansas northeastward to south of Omaha, Nebraska at 00Z/Sunday show MLCAPE values peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Wind profiles are forecast to support supercells with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range with substantial directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong speed shear in the mid-levels should result in a threat for large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells along the instability axis. An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat should accompany supercells. As cell coverage markedly increases along and ahead of the front during the early to mid evening, the wind-damage threat should become more dominant. If an MCS can organize, then the wind damage and hail would be possible into the late evening from south-central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward across the northern Plains today as a cold front advances eastward across the eastern Dakotas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints should reach the 65 to 70 F range, contributing to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop along and ahead of the front during the afternoon across central and northern Minnesota. Another area of convective development could take place in the post-frontal airmass across northeastern North Dakota. RAP forecast soundings ahead of the front across central and northern Minnesota this afternoon show MLCAPE values in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range and have strong deep-layer shear of 50 to 55 kt. This combined with speed shear in the mid-levels and steep lapse rates should support an isolated large hail threat, especially if supercells can form. Supercells should also be accompanied with an isolated tornado and wind-damage threat. Storms should move quickly east-northeastward across central and northern Minnesota during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Southern Plains... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the southern Plains as an upper-level trough moves across the Desert Southwest. A lead shortwave trough is forecast to be present in the southern High Plains this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, scattered thunderstorm development should take place from west Texas northward into the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The airmass is forecast to remain weakly unstable. In spite of this, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat by late afternoon. Hail will also be possible with the stronger updrafts. ..Broyles/Karstens.. 09/21/2019 Read more

WW 0656 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW JMS TO 35 NE JMS TO 35 SSW GFK TO 20 ESE GFK TO TVF TO 30 S RRT TO 25 E RRT. ..LEITMAN..09/21/19 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-007-027-029-057-087-107-111-113-119-125-159-167-210640- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BELTRAMI CLAY CLEARWATER HUBBARD MAHNOMEN NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE WADENA WILKIN NDC003-015-017-021-029-037-043-045-047-051-059-073-077-081-085- 091-093-097-210640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BURLEIGH CASS DICKEY EMMONS GRANT KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SIOUX STEELE STUTSMAN TRAILL Read more

WW 0656 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW JMS TO 35 NE JMS TO 35 SSW GFK TO 20 ESE GFK TO TVF TO 30 S RRT TO 25 E RRT. ..LEITMAN..09/21/19 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-007-027-029-057-087-107-111-113-119-125-159-167-210640- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BELTRAMI CLAY CLEARWATER HUBBARD MAHNOMEN NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE WADENA WILKIN NDC003-015-017-021-029-037-043-045-047-051-059-073-077-081-085- 091-093-097-210640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BURLEIGH CASS DICKEY EMMONS GRANT KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SIOUX STEELE STUTSMAN TRAILL Read more

WW 656 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 210010Z - 210800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 656 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwestern Minnesota Eastern North Dakota * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 710 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong-severe thunderstorms are expected to spread into the area from the west through the remainder of the evening, offering severe gusts/hail. Meanwhile, warm-sector development continues to expand and intensify, moving northward to north-northeastward over the new watch. In addition to the dominant wind/hail threats, a tornado cannot be ruled out. See SPC mesoscale discussion 1991 for initial meteorological details. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles south southwest of Fargo ND to 20 miles east northeast of Hallock MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 654...WW 655... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 22030. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE AIA TO 55 ENE CDR TO 35 SE PHP TO 25 W PIR TO 60 WSW MBG. ..LEITMAN..09/21/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC031-210640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHERRY SDC007-031-041-065-075-095-117-119-121-210640- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CORSON DEWEY HUGHES JONES MELLETTE STANLEY SULLY TODD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE AIA TO 55 ENE CDR TO 35 SE PHP TO 25 W PIR TO 60 WSW MBG. ..LEITMAN..09/21/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC031-210640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHERRY SDC007-031-041-065-075-095-117-119-121-210640- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CORSON DEWEY HUGHES JONES MELLETTE STANLEY SULLY TODD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 655 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 202200Z - 210700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 655 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwestern Nebraska Central and southwestern South Dakota Extreme eastern Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 400 PM until 100 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An isolated supercell is ongoing over extreme eastern Wyoming at issuance time, with additional convection expected to fill in and move across the watch area through the remainder of this evening on either side of a slow-moving front. Large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, though a tornado cannot be ruled out this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from Scottsbluff NE to 55 miles northwest of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 654... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22030. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE BFF TO 15 E CDR TO 55 NE CDR TO 25 W PHP TO 45 N RAP. ..GOSS..09/21/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC031-161-210440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHERRY SHERIDAN SDC007-031-041-055-065-071-075-093-095-102-105-117-119-121-137- 210440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CORSON DEWEY HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON JONES MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PERKINS STANLEY SULLY TODD ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0656 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DVL TO 10 NNW GFK TO 5 WNW ROX. ..GOSS..09/21/19 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-007-027-029-057-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-135-159-167- 210440- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BELTRAMI CLAY CLEARWATER HUBBARD MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU WADENA WILKIN NDC003-017-021-031-035-039-045-047-051-063-073-077-081-091-093- 097-210440- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS DICKEY FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH NELSON RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT STEELE STUTSMAN TRAILL Read more

MD 1994 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655... FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1994 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Areas affected...northern parts of the Nebraska Panhandle into western and central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 655... Valid 210320Z - 210515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 655 continues. SUMMARY...Local severe risk continues with scattered, vigorous storms over portions of WW 655. DISCUSSION...latest radar loop shows scattered strong/locally severe storms moving northeast across western South Dakota, and adjacent portions of the Nebraska Panhandle. While cool/stable air continues to surge southward across eastern Wyoming, a relatively moist/unstable airmass persists across much of central South Dakota, downstream of the ongoing storms. As such, local severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail -- will likely continue over the next few hours. With an airmass largely uncontaminated by prior convection continuing across north-central South Dakota, northeast of WW 665, some severe risk could spread out of the WW and into these areas over the next couple of hours. Though this region was previously included within now-expired WW 654, expansion of ww 655 into these areas may be required, if convection -- and associated severe risk -- increases in conjunction with the strengthening low-level jet. ..Goss.. 09/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42230098 42080194 42610327 42890316 43720321 44220348 44850316 45730198 45989966 45859833 44589858 43179951 42230098 Read more

MD 1993 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654...655... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1993 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0927 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Areas affected...central and eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 654...655... Valid 210227Z - 210430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 654, 655 continues. SUMMARY...Storms continue to weaken across central North Dakota, but strong/locally severe storms continue farther east -- within WW 656. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows largely elevated storms -- north of remnant outflow -- ongoing across central North Dakota at this time. While a few vigorous updrafts remain, severe risk continues to diminish across this area. Though hail approaching severe levels may persist for another hour or two, the scheduled 03Z expiration time for this watch appears reasonable. Farther east, a few rotating storms have persisted -- mainly near the North Dakota/Minnesota border. However, an outflow surge from storms to the west is crossing northeast North Dakota and has reached far northwestern Minnesota, and is now interacting with the aforementioned cluster of occasionally rotating storms. While severe risk -- including potential for a brief tornado or two -- continues across this area, along with local hail/wind risk, the overall threat appears to have peaked, with a gradual diminishing trend expected to continue over the next few hours. ..Goss.. 09/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 46609870 46230048 46910091 47630008 47979853 48989726 48989583 48729473 47219424 45979509 46299748 46609870 Read more

WW 0656 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 656 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..09/21/19 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-007-027-029-057-069-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-135-159- 167-210240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BELTRAMI CLAY CLEARWATER HUBBARD KITTSON MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU WADENA WILKIN NDC003-017-021-031-035-039-045-047-051-063-067-073-077-081-091- 093-097-099-210240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS DICKEY FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH NELSON PEMBINA RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT STEELE STUTSMAN TRAILL WALSH Read more

WW 0655 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE BFF TO 15 E CDR TO 25 NNE CDR TO 45 NW CDR TO 60 NW CDR. ..GOSS..09/21/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-031-123-161-210240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE CHERRY MORRILL SHERIDAN SDC007-033-047-055-065-071-075-093-095-102-103-117-119-121-137- 210240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON JONES MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON STANLEY SULLY TODD ZIEBACH WYC045-210240- WY Read more

WW 0654 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N JMS TO 35 WSW JMS TO 45 SE MBG TO 30 SSW MBG TO 15 W BIS TO 50 NNE BIS TO 60 SW DVL TO 45 WNW HCO. ..GOSS..09/21/19 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-015-019-027-029-043-071-083-103-210240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BURLEIGH CAVALIER EDDY EMMONS KIDDER RAMSEY SHERIDAN WELLS SDC021-107-129-210240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL POTTER WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0654 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N JMS TO 35 WSW JMS TO 45 SE MBG TO 30 SSW MBG TO 15 W BIS TO 50 NNE BIS TO 60 SW DVL TO 45 WNW HCO. ..GOSS..09/21/19 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-015-019-027-029-043-071-083-103-210240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BURLEIGH CAVALIER EDDY EMMONS KIDDER RAMSEY SHERIDAN WELLS SDC021-107-129-210240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL POTTER WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0654 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N JMS TO 35 WSW JMS TO 45 SE MBG TO 30 SSW MBG TO 15 W BIS TO 50 NNE BIS TO 60 SW DVL TO 45 WNW HCO. ..GOSS..09/21/19 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-015-019-027-029-043-071-083-103-210240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BURLEIGH CAVALIER EDDY EMMONS KIDDER RAMSEY SHERIDAN WELLS SDC021-107-129-210240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL POTTER WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 654 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 201850Z - 210300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 654 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central North Dakota North-Central South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon over parts of the central Dakotas, with a few storms becoming severe. Large hail is the primary threat, with an increasing risk of damaging winds by early evening. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles northeast of Minot ND to 25 miles south of Mobridge SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing wind damage, isolated large hail and a couple tornadoes are possible this evening across parts of the northern Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Northern Plains/Central High Plains... The latest water-vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the northern Rockies with southwest mid-level flow over the northern Plains. A couple perturbations in the flow appear to be moving across the northern Plains. The first is located in central North Dakota where numerous thunderstorms are ongoing. The second is located in western Nebraska where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. At the surface, a cold front is located from far northeastern Wyoming northeastward into central North Dakota. To the east of the front, a moderately to strongly unstable airmass is present. This is coincident with moderate deep-layer shear which will support a severe threat this evening. The mass of convection over east-central North Dakota is expected to organize into a nearly continuous line and move slowly east-northeastward. This line will likely be accompanied with wind damage and isolated large hail. More discrete cells should continue to develop to the east of this line across eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. The stronger cells within this cluster may obtain supercell characteristics and have isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two...see MCD 1991. Further southwest across northwest Nebraska and central South Dakota, a low-level jet will strengthen this evening. In response, thunderstorm coverage should gradually increase as storms develop across southern and central South Dakota over the next few hours. The strengthening low-level jet will create long hodographs favorable for rotating storms. A few that become supercells will have potential to produce large hail and an isolated tornado threat. As storm coverage becomes more numerous late this evening, wind damage and hail should become the predominant severe threat. ...Southern Plains... The latest water-vapor imagery shows southwest mid-level flow over the southern Plains with a minor shortwave trough located over southern Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the shortwave trough. Near the trough, the airmass is moderately unstable with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 kt range. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat for another hour or two as a bowing line segment moves eastward across northwest Texas and far southern Oklahoma. Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 09/21/2019 Read more